The Age/Herald has published its monthly federal voting intention poll from Resolve Strategic, which appeared online yesterday and in print today. The series remains an outlier in its soft reading of support for Labor, who are down one point on the primary vote to 31%, with the Coalition also down one to 39% and the Greens down two on 10%.
With the main players all down, “others” has shot up four points to 7%, which if nothing else about this poll is consistent with this week’s Newspoll – perhaps suggesting that Clive Palmer’s expensive efforts to win support from lockdown skeptics may be having an impact. One Nation also enjoys a mini-surge, up two points to 4%. The remaining 9%, down one on last month, goes to “independents”, which the pollster contentiously includes as a distinct option despite uncertainty as to what candidates voters in most seats will have available to them at the election.
The pollster does not produce its own two-party results, but if preference flows from 2019 are applied to the primary votes, they come out with a Coalition lead of nearly 52-48 – quite unlike Newspoll’s and Roy Morgan’s Labor leads of 53-47 and 52.5-47.5. Anticipating a lively reaction from the Twitter mob, the accompanying report offers the following note of explanation:
The Resolve survey uses a different methodology from others. There is no “undecided” category because Resolve asks voters to nominate their primary votes in the same way they fill in their ballot papers for the lower house at an election. This means the final Resolve tables do not exclude the “uncommitted” group, which can be about 8 per cent of all respondents. There is no “uncommitted” cohort. Respondents have to choose an option.
As usual, breakdowns are offered for the three largest states (they used to have Western Australia as well, but seem to have dropped it now), which suggest a Coalition lead in New South Wales that has grown from around 51-49 last month to 53.5-46.5. In Victoria, the implication is of a stable Labor lead of around 51.5-48.5. In Queensland, however, Labor has done quite a bit better than a particularly bad result last month, suggesting a Coalition lead of 53-47 rather than 58.5-41.5, while tanking in “rest of Australia”, where both major parties lose share to independents and others.
On personal ratings, both leaders are up three on approval and down one on disapproval: Scott Morrison to 49% approval (by which I mean a combined very good and good result) and 45% disapproval (ditto for very poor and poor), Anthony Albanese to 31% and 46%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 46-23 to 45-26. I don’t normally pay much attention to breakdowns on leadership ratings, but it may be worth nothing that Albanese has a 30% undecided rating among women compared with 16% among men.
The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1606. At some point in the future, I will take a deeper look at the pollster’s peculiarities relative to its rivals. Tomorrow we should get its bi-monthly read on state voting intention in New South Wales, combining results from this month’s and last month’s surveys.
Firefox2 says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 6:01 pm
So when we are blissfully independent and isolationist having cut all military cooperation with the US, when China starts cutting off our sea and air routes who are we going to call on for assistance? NZ?
This is listed under Pollbludger on Reddit…
“ Mr Morrison’s re-election strategy is all about leveraging the political capital available in the Liberal-held states to retain currently held marginal seats in those states, and perhaps pick up seats to offset potential losses in the Labor-controlled states of Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia.”
https://cgmcommunications.com.au/voice/nsw-critical-to-federal-election-outcome-165
Anyway, the painkillers are kicking in again so I shall go back to sleep.
Dog’s Breakfast at 6:15 pm
Re the ” regular ‘knuckle draggers’ on the SMH site” and their wails.
Given the political spectrum many of the ‘freedom fighters’ inhabit it is a LOL to see them bitching about contravening the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. They should be asked “And how do you feel about this bit of it ?”….
From my North Bondi informant
The cops came at 4.
Everybody left.
The cops left at 5.
Everybody came back.
Buce, you’re a bit late to the party, champ. We’ve been discussing this at length for a few days now.
Distancing ourselves from the far-right rogue state that is the United States is not the same as being isolationist. Far from it. There are other countries in the world other than China and America, you know. We should be seeking closer ties with left wing and centrist countries instead.
The ANZAC alliance is absolutely one that we should maintain. Incredibly, NZ – which makes a point of distancing itself from America’s warmongering – has yet to face invasion from China. Amazing, isn’t it?
NSW could pass a law requiring everyone, absent cause, to be vaccinated or though the penalty capable of being imposed may have to be proportionate. .
poroti, exactly and you were savvy enough to be able to find that clause. As a scientist, I always find the opponents of many arguments I have followed is that they do ‘bad science’ which includes the casual use of scientific sounding terminology (usually laughably inappropriate) and the ‘do your research’ comment that they fervently hope they won’t be asked to elaborate on.
Sweden’s method of getting fighters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6VZUoLW4QE&ab_channel=WildIron
“Mr Morrison’s re-election strategy is all about leveraging the political capital available in the Liberal-held states to retain currently held marginal seats in those states, and perhaps pick up seats to offset potential losses in the Labor-controlled states of Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia”
Yep. Scomo is relying upon NSW. Implicitly he’s putting his faith in the following:
– Covid doesn’t surge
– People will get meaningful “freedoms” and won’t be subject to further restrictions/lockdowns.
It is extremely unlikely that neither of those will occur.
@SwannyQLD tweets
Frydenberg now admits he was wrong to oppose substantial action on climate by destroying Labor’s 2011 Clean Energy Package.
This 10 year delay reveals the cost of inaction is far greater than the cost of action and shows Liberals are incapable of dealing with the future #auspol
Firefox2 says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 6:25 pm
Buce, you’re a bit late to the party, champ. We’ve been discussing this at length for a few days now.
Distancing ourselves from the far-right rogue state that is the United States is not the same as being isolationist. Far from it. There are other countries in the world other than China and America, you know. We should be seeking closer ties with left wing and centrist countries instead.
The ANZAC alliance is absolutely one that we should maintain. Incredibly, NZ – which makes a point of distancing itself from America’s warmongering – has yet to face invasion from China. Amazing, isn’t it?
The guts of this claim is that because NZ does not defend itself (but relies on the US and Australia for defence) then Australia should also decline to defend itself (and remain reliant on the US and NZ!! for its defence).
This is self-evidently a fraudulent position to take.
NZ are free-loaders when it comes to their defence. That is, they are not concerned to defend their territory, the reach of their laws nor the safety of their citizens, and still less are they willing to contribute to the defence of their neighbours and friends.
NZ is not a model for anyone and is certainly not a country we should emulate in these matters.
Defence is a contextual issue. It is not determined by autarky. It is co-determined by one’s own interests and by the interests and postures of others – by friends and by rivals – by the physical constraints of geography and by technical capacities. It is a multi-lateral equation.
Personally I think Australia should make it clear that it stands with Taiwan; that it stands with Japan and the US and South Korea against Chinese territorial ambition.
There is no justification for the use of force against Taiwan. None. Taiwan does not pose a threat to China and nor could it. The people of Taiwan, as with people everywhere, are entitled to self-determination. We should defend this principle…among others….
Speaking of AUKUS
My mum pointed out to me that Orcus is a god of the underworld – the punisher of oath breakers.
Appropriate 🙂
I never really took to Rudd, finding him too cerebral for the average voter. Since leaving politics, however, I’ve started to respect him for his campaign against Murdoch, and the fact that while he could live the life of Riley, he involves himself with grass-roots’ Labor politics, his town-hall like talk at Buderim Tavern (as advised by laughtong) on October 2 evidencing same.
When Labor takes government in March to May next year, consideration should be given to appointing him as our ambassador to China, a job he’d be most suited to, there being few more qualified by virtue of his breadth of Sino experience and his speaking the lingo.
I wouldn’t get ahead of myself, Mavis. It cost us dearly last time.
NZ are free loaders lol
That’s like Australia being freeloaders to America because they don’t have their own defence but instead beg USA for their instead of building their own.
Go the Rabbitohs! Kick the Silvertails butt! 😀
C@tmomma says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 5:17 pm
And here is an article from 3 days ago:
I was under the impression the sub arguments had been put to bed?
In any case.. if going nuclear powered is the best option ( dubious, unless the end game is 150% embedment with the US or humouring the UK in their delusional belief they are relevant in the Indo-Pacific)… why not the nuclear Barracuda, its much cheaper, smaller crew , more automated & much lower maintain costs… the refusing argument is spurious.. only 2 refuses in the life of the boat & US LOS reactor looks to have big problems.. it is unproven long term & has already had failures in 3 Virginia class boats
“NZ are free-loaders when it comes to their defence. ”
***
Oh, I see. The Greens are in government in NZ. This is also a conservative’s worst nightmare.
It is not in Australia’s interests to be dragged into the middle of a conflict between China and America. If your concern is truly maintaining peace and defending Australia, then you will oppose us aligning ourselves with either of them in favour of us taking a position of neutrality.
Chaser Interns
@ChaserInterns
The most ‘Australian politics in 2021’ statement possible
F2
What I find most amusing. You are arguing for an increased military budget for the ADF so we can be an independent military force with an independent foreign policy, working with others in our region.
Apparently that’s gutting the ADF and being reactionary.
“That’s like Australia being freeloaders to America because they don’t have their own defence but instead beg USA for their instead of building their own.”
***
Yes!
C@tmomma:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 6:59 pm
[‘I wouldn’t get ahead of myself, Mavis. It cost us dearly last time.’]
We must be positive, inspire the troops. Regrettably, Shorten lacked the goods. I’m going to be personal by suggesting Bill never really looked prime ministerial.
But I’m sure it’ll be a case of anyone bar motormouth – a case of caveat emptor.
“Apparently that’s gutting the ADF and being reactionary.”
***
Yeah apparently so according to the trolls.
Really can’t see what their major issue with Australian bases in Australia being garrisoned by Australian troops is.
If the ADF was used for actually defending Australia instead of running off after America to fight their wars for them, the country would be better defended and we wouldn’t be wasting so much money and so many lives fighting wars halfway around the world that have nothing to do with us and shouldn’t be happening.
“I’m going to be personal by suggesting Bill never really looked prime ministerial.”
***
Blasphemy!
”
Hugoaugogosays:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 4:00 pm
Ven – I think the fundamental difference between Trump and Biden with Covid is that Trump never took it seriously (and it showed), while Biden clearly does. As a result Biden gets the benefit of the doubt that Trump does not.
”
But look at the number of new deaths. Aren’t they close to what they were per day when Trump waa President that too with avaliability of vaccine?
Recently, the numbers were as high as this during India’s second wave of COVID in April and May, where the daily cases were over 400000 at one point and new deaths/ day were over 4000. The US media was absolutely filthy with outrage
indulging in morgue porn by showing funeral pyres day in and day out. Or the 3rd or 4th waves this year in Europe. They were depicting them as dire.
Now the new cases in US are over 250000/ day and deaths are over 3200/ day. The US is supposed to have best Medical facilities and hospital system and yet the numbers are similar to last year and that too with availability of vaccine.
What I am saying is that the liberal media has accused Fox of hypocricy and bias when Fox supported Trump outrageous behaviour last year. Are liberal media behaving any better this year when it comes to Biden whether it is COVID, Afghanistan evacation, betrayal of French in Nuclear deal (The french were so angry they recalled their ambassador from US for the first time)?
Firefox2:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 7:26 pm
“I’m going to be personal by suggesting Bill never really looked prime ministerial.”
***
[‘Blasphemy!’]
Perhaps though I’ve never shied away from going against the grain. And I will add that Labor’s 2019 campaign was abysmal in Queensland, where elections are won or lost, Rudd proving thus in 2007, where IIRC Labor won 15 of the 30 seats up for grabs.
Meanwhile – even the Guardian now recognises Australia as 32nd out of 38th. I’m willing to guess with the rate of vaccine take-up we will end up in the top 5 in the OECD – possibly only the backwoods folk in WA+QLD could prevent a top 5 finish.
Memories in July – how many on here delighted in saying the Guardian says Australia is 38th out of 38.
Mavis – don’t you think the ALP is making the same mistake twice, ie sticking with an unpopular leader when the election is their’s for the taking?
Curious how every outrage is ok within the ALP but knifing an unpopular leader (who by definition needs to be popular to win) is beyond the pale?
Lars Von Trier says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 7:39 pm
Part of Gaslight Gladys’s & SfM master plan to boost vax rates… rampant uncontrolled Delta to sharpen the focus, it may well work
“Perhaps though I’ve never shied away from going against the grain. And I will add that Labor’s 2019 campaign was abysmal in Queensland, where elections are won or lost, Rudd proving thus in 2007, where IIRC Labor won 15 of the 30 seats up for grabs.”
***
Yeah Rudd’s Kevin07 campaign was a very good one. He really connected with people and was pretty much treated like a rock-star for awhile there. Remember how people would flock to him for selfies? When you’ve got the masses responding to you like that you know you’re going pretty well. Hell, he even got me to vote for Labor! 2007 was the last time I gave them my first preference.
Yes I believe so secptic.
With nearly 85% first shot in NSW – it is highly likely we will end up over 90% double vaxxed in NSW.
There’s about 900,000 people unvaccinated in over 16 – Im guessing we will end up Scandanavian , ie 95% + vaxxed.
Albo’s strategy such as it is – people will be angry about the State of play in July in March 2022. We will see!
Lars Von Trier
I still remember Morrison , hunt claiming up to 90% Australians would be fully vaccinated next month
LVT
Yes, vaccine take-up is excellent. If only these vaccines were available to be be taken up months ago – we could have averted these interminable lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne. But ScoMo thought he was too important to take a call from Pfizer. So here we are in Sydney in our 13th week of lockdown, and a few more yet to come until we hit 70% or 80% (I’m not sure which) double-vaccination.
But as long as we’re 35th out of 38 in vaccine take-up, all is well.
Kakuru
Only if Morrison and his cronies were not incompetent , the promise which was not to be broken was Australians would be over 8o/85% double dosed ,at this point
Lars Von Trier:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 7:43 pm
[‘Mavis – don’t you think the ALP is making the same mistake twice, ie sticking with an unpopular leader when the election is their’s for the taking?’]
Please, and don’t let this go any further, I’m not sure Albanese cuts the mustard but he’s the anointed one, in consequence of which, those wanting a change of government should rally around him. Anyway, I’m off to see the “Bunnies” trounce the “Silver tails”?
68% of people in NSW have had at least one dose.
In Scomo units we need to be at 100 or above. (80+ in real terms)
Well kakuru -life’s unfair.
For example Kim Beazley spent years opposing Howard – and yet Rudd waltzes in six months out and becomes PM.
Albo’s starting to exude that loser smell!
”
sprocket_says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 5:49 pm
Buce
If you know so much about the WA Liberal Party, why did they only win 2 seats at the last State poll?
”
Does the quote “don’t ask don’t tell” apply here? 🙂
I know Bucephalus has retired all tuckered out, but for posterity:
This is true but a non-sequitur. Given that there is a fixed worldwide budget of carbon dioxide that can be safely emitted per year (what the atmosphere “measures”), that must be allocated in some way. If it isn’t done equitably, it certainly won’t be adhered to.
Does it make sense that the Vatican, or Iceland, or Nauru should be able to emit as much CO₂ in absolute terms as Australia, or the USA, or India, or China? Clearly this is an absurd contention, which leads you inexorably to some kind of per-capita budget (which is not as easy as it sounds – you need to decide how to fairly account emissions that are incurred in the manufacturing of goods consumed elsewhere).
What Lars Von Trier knows is
Morrison and his cronies lost the federal election , as soon as
there were no 4 million Australians vaccinated by the end of March 2021
Morrison and his cronies made it impossible for any political comeback is the lie
Up to 90% Australians will be fully vaccinated next month
Australia – unlike NZ – is no free-loader. Such a claim is just disingenuous.
Australia has made a significant contribution to peace for many decades, in part as a member of ANZUS and more substantially as host of the communications facilities at Pine Gap and NW Cape. These facilities have helped maintain the operational strategic balance between the nuclear powers for many years and therefore have been peace-making assets.
These have been supported by both LNP and Labor governments. They not only protect Australia. They protect our neighbours and our friends as well as our adversaries from the possible consequences of nuclear exchange.
The only voices that would close them down are those of the Greens and their clones. To do so would increase the peril we all collectively face, and yet would do nothing to mitigate any threat to our own territory. On the contrary, their removal would increase our vulnerability.
From Kos Samaras on twitter:
Why does Melbourne attract Alt Right rallies?
Because Melbourne is hostile territory for the conspiratorial Right.
Melbourne is most defined by its progressive & prevailing culture. Our institutions, government to footy, have come to be defined by this culture
It is this culture in which the Right feels most isolated, and threatened. Outcasts with little opportunity to engage with the broader community. Hence they retreat to online communities. When able, they try to express, connect with their in group – normally via online.
When this baseline of isolation gets ramped up by gov policy and public sentiment that reinforces their feeling of estrangement, they equally look to more extreme ways to express their group ID.
Hence, its really easy to recruit terror cells in western cities.
Equally, the urge to express this group ID is far more profound in a city like Melbourne versus other major Aus cities. Especially during a pandemic where the majority support a communitarian approach to the pandemic.
We don’t isolate hotspot LGAs. This angers them.
We don’t support creating two cities, forcing one group to suffer under extreme restrictions whilst the other more wealthy enjoy greater liberties. This angers them.
We support COVID policies clearly designed to prevent the vulnerable, health and economic, from dying in large numbers. This really really angers them. In Sydney, this same group would feel better about those local settings. The brown people are suffering more.
They at first protested against lockdowns. Now it’s vaccines. Going forward. Bodies like ASIO will be focusing on cities like Melbourne, more than others. The Alt Right will more than likely continue to express their group ID more in this city than any other.
Remember, vaccine mandates are far stricter in Sydney. But the Alt Right group ID is not as isolated in that city versus Melbourne.
Firefox2 says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 7:08 pm
“NZ are free-loaders when it comes to their defence. ”
***
Oh, I see. The Greens …
The NZ policy of free-riding has had nothing to do with the Greens. It is a common policy in all corners in NZ. The Blacks are bludgers on defence in the same way that Australia bludges in relation to climate change. They should be ashamed of themselves.
What a fantastic story!
The three Melbourne teenagers (14,15,15) who collect, collate and publish a large amount of Covid data on https://covidbaseau.com
They’ve gone public today after receiving the Moderna vaccine.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/24/absolutely-madness-melbourne-teenagers-reveal-they-are-behind-leading-covid-tracking-website
…..I will add that Labor’s 2019 campaign was abysmal in Queensland….
….and not only in QLD. Labor ran the most self-indulgent FIGJAM campaign imaginable. They also walked into the Adani trap laid for them by the Greens and the LNP.
Shorten should have been at the Tweed telling Bob Brown to go home. That would have saved a few seats.
If NZ played rugby the way they do defence, they would be playing 3-a-side-touch by now, or perhaps running races in spud sacks.
The attacks on climate change targets by lib/nats , corrupt Lib/nats propaganda medis units , which have changed to support the same climate change target they attacked.
Completely finished them
Scott says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 8:20 pm
The attacks on climate change targets by lib/nats , corrupt Lib/nats propaganda medis units , which have changed to support the same climate change target they attacked.
The fine print. We better see the fine print. The LNP will shirk things if they can. They do not believe in taking effective action. They believe in doing nothing.