Resolve Strategic: Coalition 39, Labor 31, Greens 10

Another idiosyncratic set of voting intention numbers from the Age/Herald pollster, suggesting the Coalition would again be returned with a small majority.

The Age/Herald has published its monthly federal voting intention poll from Resolve Strategic, which appeared online yesterday and in print today. The series remains an outlier in its soft reading of support for Labor, who are down one point on the primary vote to 31%, with the Coalition also down one to 39% and the Greens down two on 10%.

With the main players all down, “others” has shot up four points to 7%, which if nothing else about this poll is consistent with this week’s Newspoll – perhaps suggesting that Clive Palmer’s expensive efforts to win support from lockdown skeptics may be having an impact. One Nation also enjoys a mini-surge, up two points to 4%. The remaining 9%, down one on last month, goes to “independents”, which the pollster contentiously includes as a distinct option despite uncertainty as to what candidates voters in most seats will have available to them at the election.

The pollster does not produce its own two-party results, but if preference flows from 2019 are applied to the primary votes, they come out with a Coalition lead of nearly 52-48 – quite unlike Newspoll’s and Roy Morgan’s Labor leads of 53-47 and 52.5-47.5. Anticipating a lively reaction from the Twitter mob, the accompanying report offers the following note of explanation:

The Resolve survey uses a different methodology from others. There is no “undecided” category because Resolve asks voters to nominate their primary votes in the same way they fill in their ballot papers for the lower house at an election. This means the final Resolve tables do not exclude the “uncommitted” group, which can be about 8 per cent of all respondents. There is no “uncommitted” cohort. Respondents have to choose an option.

As usual, breakdowns are offered for the three largest states (they used to have Western Australia as well, but seem to have dropped it now), which suggest a Coalition lead in New South Wales that has grown from around 51-49 last month to 53.5-46.5. In Victoria, the implication is of a stable Labor lead of around 51.5-48.5. In Queensland, however, Labor has done quite a bit better than a particularly bad result last month, suggesting a Coalition lead of 53-47 rather than 58.5-41.5, while tanking in “rest of Australia”, where both major parties lose share to independents and others.

On personal ratings, both leaders are up three on approval and down one on disapproval: Scott Morrison to 49% approval (by which I mean a combined very good and good result) and 45% disapproval (ditto for very poor and poor), Anthony Albanese to 31% and 46%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 46-23 to 45-26. I don’t normally pay much attention to breakdowns on leadership ratings, but it may be worth nothing that Albanese has a 30% undecided rating among women compared with 16% among men.

The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1606. At some point in the future, I will take a deeper look at the pollster’s peculiarities relative to its rivals. Tomorrow we should get its bi-monthly read on state voting intention in New South Wales, combining results from this month’s and last month’s surveys.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,821 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 39, Labor 31, Greens 10”

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  1. Firefox2 says:
    Friday, September 24, 2021 at 4:58 pm

    It’s not the truth. Its uneducated speculation by someone who clearly knows bugger all about Australian politics.

  2. poroti
    The confusing thing is that the Western Australian citizens I know reasonably well at a personal level are actually all rather nice people.

  3. Shellbell @ #1633 Friday, September 24th, 2021 – 4:43 pm

    “To my eyes and ears he seems like an ordinary bloke. You know, a real person.”

    “[He] like[s] football and porno and books about war.”

    Apologies to Denis Leary

    Not surprised people who you wouldn’t cross the road for don’t appeal to you. So, let me call your snide bluff, Shellbell. What have you got against people who like football, porno and books about war?

  6. Firefox2 says:
    Friday, September 24, 2021 at 4:53 pm

    “Racism (he described India as a “shit hole”) “ – that’s not racism.

  9. “It’s not the truth.”

    ***

    You keep telling yourself that. Australia is increasingly being left in the dust on climate thanks to the two parties of the establishment. More and more countries are beginning to take the climate emergency more seriously. What the Greens have long campaigned for is now becoming mainstream. This is a conservative’s worst nightmare.

  11. “You really are a nasty piece of work who deserves nothing but contempt.”

    ***

    I’ve said this before but it’s truly amazing how well you describe yourself sometimes, Cat. You are the one with the problem, not anyone else.

  12. Firefox2 says:
    Friday, September 24, 2021 at 5:13 pm

    I’ll believe countries are taking it seriously when their leaders start behaving like it’s serious and stop things like the COP conference and start putting taxes on Chinese goods.

  13. And here is an article from 3 days ago: 🙄

    Australia wants to replace its Collins-class attack submarines. The plan was initially to purchase a dozen diesel-electric Shortfin Barracuda submarines from France, but Australia has since abandoned that plan and partnered with the US and UK to acquire nuclear submarine technology.

    At this time, it is unclear whether Australia will pursue British or American submarine technology or some mixture of the two, but here is how American, British, and French submarine technology compares.

    Virginia-class attack submarines

    The US Navy’s Virginia-class submarines are nuclear-powered fast-attack vessels armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles, Mk-48 torpedoes, and UGM-84 Harpoon anti-ship missiles that were built for open ocean and littoral missions.

    The newer Block V models will be over 450 feet (137.16m) long and have a displacement of more than 10,000 tons. This newer model will not only be larger than its predecessors, it will also have a significantly increased weapons capacity of about 65 torpedo-sized weapons. These submarines also have support capabilities for special operations forces.

    The Virginia-class submarines have unlimited range, and the reactor core, which uses highly-enriched uranium, does not require refueling for the life of the ship, which is more than three decades.

    These boats are among the quietest and are equipped with high-end sensors, giving the US Navy a degree of acoustic superiority in the undersea battlespace.

    Astute-class attack submarines

    The British Royal Navy’s Astute-class submarines are nuclear-powered attack submarines that can carry up to 38 torpedo-sized weapons, including Tomahawk cruise missiles and Spearfish heavyweight torpedoes.

    These vessels measure 318 feet (96.93m), according to builder BAE Systems, and has a submerged displacement of well over 7,000 tons.

    The UK’s Astute-class submarines are slightly faster than the Virginia-class submarines, and they have unlimited range. And like the American submarines, the reactors on the British vessels were designed not to need to be refueled for the life of the ship, around 25 years.

    Additionally, these submarines have support systems for British special forces.

    In many ways, the British Astute-class subs are comparable to the American Virginia-class submarines.

    Suffren-class attack submarines and the Shortfin Barracuda

    The French Navy’s Barracuda- or Suffren-class submarines are nuclear-powered attack submarines designed by French shipbuilder Naval Group and equipped with four torpedo tubes and 20 weapons racks able to carry heavy torpedoes, anti-ship missiles, cruise missiles, and naval mines.

    These submarines, which are traditional open ocean submarines, are 326 feet (99.36m) long and have a displacement of about 5,200 tons.

    As nuclear submarines, the Suffren-class submarines have unlimited range, but the reactors have to be refueled about every ten years.

    “In terms of performance, the Virginia class has the best overall performance,” Bryan Clark, a former US Navy submarine officer and current defense expert, told Insider. “The Astute would probably be right behind it, and then the Barracuda would probably be third of those three.”

    Nuclear-powered submarines make sense

    Clark told Insider that it is reasonable for the Australian navy to go with some type of nuclear-powered sub over conventional submarines as it looks to replace its Collins-class boats.

    “A diesel submarine doesn’t really make sense because on its way to whatever it would be trying to do, it is going to be detected and monitored, especially with the degree of commercial and military sensing that is out there,” he said. “It’ll be tracked, and then when it arrives at wherever it’s supposed to operate, your opponent will probably be waiting there for you.”

    Thomas Shugart, a former US Navy submarine warfare officer and current adjunct senior fellow in the defense program at the Center for New American Security, also said it’s a good idea, explaining that nuclear-powered subs would better meet Australia’s security demands in the contested Indo-Pacific region.

    “I think it makes sense given the deteriorating military balance in the region,” he said. “And there’s no doubt for anybody who was paying any attention at all that the Australians were unhappy with where the Shortfin Barracuda program was going.”

    That said, Clark and Shugart pointed out that there are potential downsides, such as program costs, though these were already high, and further delivery delays on bringing improved submarine capability to the Australian navy.

    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/france-australia-deal-submarine-technology-comparisons-2021-9

  14. There will be more to that rawstory report. The ninjas werent assigned that job to just recount votes. They will come up with something for authoritarian Republicans in the state legislatures to point at when they introduce further undemocratic election laws.

  16. Shellbell says:
    Friday, September 24, 2021 at 5:14 pm

    Excellent album. Terrible risk for you to take being associated with something so non-PC.

  18. C@tmomma

    To my eyes and ears he seems like an ordinary bloke. You know, a real person. The sort of candidate people on forums like this keep crying out for Labor to choose as candidates. Also, a loose cannon wouldn’t have the self discipline to win 5 Olympic medals.

    Honestly, it’s an abnormal person who doesn’t check out porn these days. And he’s a shooter. Put the two together and what have you got? Normal, everyday Aussie male.

    Yes, there are more than one demographic of young Aussie male but he belongs to one of the biggest.

    If you say so C@t. Much depends on no further damaging material coming out. But from where I’m sitting in Newcastle, which Labor depends on for many of its volunteers for campaigns in seats like Hunter, he is already a liability and an unvetted one at that.

  19. I don’t know much about Repacholi, but one of the things he said in an interview recently did strike a chord.

    I can’t remember the exact comments, but it was something along the lines of “if you are going to go back into social networks and the like and find things/comments that are not acceptable then you will basically exclude anyone who has not been preparing to go into politics from an early age from standing”.

    Everyone wrings their hands about the fact that the only people who get nominated by major parties (and especially the Labor Party) are political operatives and long-standing players but then goes on a rampage when they discover something not PC in the person’s past. It’s actually much worse in the USA, but we don’t want to import that rubbish into Australia.

    Now, there is a fair debate about the process in which he is being nominated (and others are not getting a look in), but this stuff about comments made in the past when he was actually being an ordinary person (with all their foibles) not shaping his persona for a political career is just irrelevant nonsense!

  21. Thanks to those who posted advice on fraud alerts for phones.

    I’ll check to see about my iPhone.

    Anyway, it looks like spam SMSs from Kelly and Palmer have abated for the time being.

  23. You really are a nasty piece of work who deserves nothing but contempt.

    But at least I wont be complicit in the mass extinction that follows your warmongering when this all turns to custard. Comrade.

  24. Firefox2 says:
    Friday, September 24, 2021 at 5:19 pm

    If you believe the science it’s simple maths and physics. China is over 30% of global emissions – more than double the next country. Reduce their emissions significantly and it’s low hanging fruit.

    If you oppose immediate major reductions for China and oppose nuclear power you either don’t really believe the science or you’ve got a different agenda than just emissions reductions.

  26. Shellbell says:
    Friday, September 24, 2021 at 5:25 pm
    “North Bondi heaving apparently”

    High vaccination rates there so I don’t see a problem.

  28. John Elliott

    @mrmadrigal1
    2h
    Replying to
    @MikeCarlton01 and @crikey_news

    In the 80’s I was a part time chef at the MCG. He complained about the food regularly. We hated his arrogance and bad temper. One football game, we sent Swan Lager to his corporate super box. Alan Bond in his box was sent Fosters. The screaming and shouting from both was fun!

  29. C@t – our new cut n’ paste merchant (but at least peg wasn’t trying to kill us all) – has now found two shills from the US Nucs industry to hang her hat on:

    “ A diesel submarine doesn’t really make sense because on its way to whatever it would be trying to do, it is going to be detected and monitored, especially with the degree of commercial and military sensing that is out there,” he said. “It’ll be tracked, and then when it arrives at wherever it’s supposed to operate, your opponent will probably be waiting there for you.”

    If detection and monitoring by modern commercial and military sensing ‘that is out there’ makes conventional subs obsolete, then the same applies to nuclear subs … only more so.

    They – especially the American and UK variants – are fair more noisy and conventional subs. Plus they have a ginormous heat signature.

    Nucs have clear advantages in range and speed. At speed they have an additional advantage over propellor driven subs (of either nuclear or conventional propulsion) because the pump jet technology (of which the Frenchies have the best and modern design) doesn’t suffer from cavitation. … and that’s it.

    Oh, I realised I forgot to actually link to the submission I intended to in my earlier post. My bad, and here you go:

    https://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=7ae3652d-0106-4705-ab45-3aeefbf71e64&subId=687729

  30. High vaccination rates there so I don’t see a problem.

    How high were the rates 2 weeks ago? As it takes that long for a vax to kick in.
    And, sure, there is much lower transmission outdoors with mostly vaxed peeps. But. When there are already a lot of people in hospital and ICU in NSW, “lower” transmission atm isnt all fluffy ducks and happy days.

    Maybe when NSW has sent back all the interstate nurses and doctors co-opted to help out, and allowed the retired staff to go back to retirement, would the heaving masses feel entitled to congregate.

  31. Bucephalussays:

    Friday, September 24, 2021 at 5:28 pm

    Which is more reductions? Reducing Australia’s per capita emission to 10 tons or reducing China’s per capita emissions to 9 tons?

  32. Lizzie, to be fair to Elliot, the meals served up at lunches at the MCG can be fairly ordinary. I’m not surprised Elliot complained a few times, seeing that as President of Carlton he was hosting Presidential lunches every second week. When you are trying to please your sponsors and they get served some slop it is a problem.

  33. Firefox2 says:
    Friday, September 24, 2021 at 5:13 pm
    “It’s not the truth.”

    ***

    You keep telling yourself that. Australia is increasingly being left in the dust on climate thanks to the two parties of the establishment. More and more countries are beginning to take the climate emergency more seriously. What the Greens have long campaigned for is now becoming mainstream. This is a conservative’s worst nightmare.

    The main reason for Australia’s remarkably poor record on climate change has been the success of the reactionary LNP. They have made great profits from their intransigence. The Greens have also derived significant profits from the politics of climate change.

    But policy has failed. Labor has lost very heavily. Time has been wasted. The reactionary coalition has been strengthened.

    The Greens should consider the part they have played in this. Their polemics and strategies have advantaged the reactionaries at every step. This can hardly be accidental.

    For mine, I reckon the Greens need issues on which they can campaign. No campaigns/no Greens. Their brand is built on agit-prop. So agit-prop is sufficient for them. They do not need policy success. They need only issues on which they can be vocal and visible. Their praxis is built on protest rather than on reform itself.

    Consequently they are pleased to see the reformist Party – Labor – experience recurring defeat. This is beneficial to the Greens.

  35. Well Buce I have some great news for you and your coal loving and climate denying compadres…

    China will no longer fund coal projects abroad, President Xi Jinping pledges at the UN General Assembly

    China will stop funding coal projects overseas, Chinese President Xi Jinping has announced, all but ending the flow of public aid for the dirty energy contributing to the climate crisis.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-22/china-to-stop-overseas-coal-funding-un-general-assembly-climate/100481552

    Like America and Australia, they have a long way to go and need to do more, but singling them out and ignoring the rest of the world just reveals that you really couldn’t give a rat’s what other countries do about the climate emergency. The fact that you’re supporting the likes of Morrison tell us that already though. You’re just another one of the right who’s utterly obsessed with China.

  38. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, September 24, 2021 at 5:06 pm
    Andrew_Earlwood @ #1644 Friday, September 24th, 2021 – 4:55 pm

    Just putting this here as an FYI for those not satisfied with off piste Popular Mechanics cut n’ pastes from 3 years ago …
    You really are a nasty piece of work who deserves nothing but contempt.
    ___________________________________________
    Hilarious – c@t’s had yet another falling out on Pollbludger.

    I think C@t is like the Katherine Chancellor of PollBludger ! Queue the hourglass

  39. MFW
    @MFWitches
    ·
    7h
    (Katie Allen) Saying violent rioters in MELB are “in a pressure cooker” or were “pushed to the brink” by their state govt is exactly like saying a man who kills his partner is a “good bloke who snapped”.

  41. Lizzie

    There is no doubt there were violent protestors there.

    I hope we are not going down the international route of militarised police and legitimate protests regularly getting violent contingents like we have seen in European countries.

    Allowing of course for the media propensity of it bleeds it leads.

  42. Apologies if this has been posted already. Perrott and Berejiklian have differing takes on what “freedom” means. This could be interesting when unvaccinated people start complaining.

    Note that ACT will not discriminate between vaccinated and unvaccinated but is aiming for a very high rate of vaccination.

    NSW Treasurer says state should ‘open up to everyone’, not just vaccinated
    By Daniella White
    NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet says the unvaccinated should enjoy the same freedoms as the rest of society once everyone has had the chance to be inoculated.

    He said he didn’t want to see a “two-tiered society” and restrictions on the unvaccinated shouldn’t be in place indefinitely.

    (SMH updates at 13:26)

  43. “Oh, and killing the world!”

    ***

    Yup. People like you who unquestioningly support America in it’s warmongering are the reason why disasters like Iraq and Afghanistan are allowed to happen and why those responsible are allowed to get away with such atrocities.

    If Australia manages to land ourselves in the middle of a war between China and America it will be because of people like you who blindly followed Biden and Morrison down this path of utter stupidity.

  45. Firefox2 says:
    Friday, September 24, 2021 at 5:48 pm
    “This is beneficial to the Greens.”

    ***

    Like I said – a conservative’s worst nightmare.

    The Greens derive benefits from the failure of climate change policies and from the success of reactionaries.

    Really, the reactionaries and the Greens stand in the same place in relation to successful reform. They are opposed to it. They have conspired with each other to prevent it.

  46. Catprog says:
    Friday, September 24, 2021 at 5:43 pm

    The atmosphere doesn’t measure CO2 emissions on a per capita basis. I don’t recall from chemistry or physics doing any molar calculations on a per capita basis.

  48. The reactionaries always have a reason to defer or deflect reform in relation to climate change. Always. They believe in doing nothing. They worship at the altar of futility. Their deity is Denial.

  50. Comment by one of the regular ‘knuckle draggers’ on the SMH site, disappointed that the Magna Carta didn’t get a run…

    “Shameful coercion to be vaccinated , threats of active discrimination , loss of privacy rights and manipulation in direct contravention of the Australian Immunisation Guidelines and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.”

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