The Age/Herald has published its monthly federal voting intention poll from Resolve Strategic, which appeared online yesterday and in print today. The series remains an outlier in its soft reading of support for Labor, who are down one point on the primary vote to 31%, with the Coalition also down one to 39% and the Greens down two on 10%.
With the main players all down, “others” has shot up four points to 7%, which if nothing else about this poll is consistent with this week’s Newspoll – perhaps suggesting that Clive Palmer’s expensive efforts to win support from lockdown skeptics may be having an impact. One Nation also enjoys a mini-surge, up two points to 4%. The remaining 9%, down one on last month, goes to “independents”, which the pollster contentiously includes as a distinct option despite uncertainty as to what candidates voters in most seats will have available to them at the election.
The pollster does not produce its own two-party results, but if preference flows from 2019 are applied to the primary votes, they come out with a Coalition lead of nearly 52-48 – quite unlike Newspoll’s and Roy Morgan’s Labor leads of 53-47 and 52.5-47.5. Anticipating a lively reaction from the Twitter mob, the accompanying report offers the following note of explanation:
The Resolve survey uses a different methodology from others. There is no “undecided” category because Resolve asks voters to nominate their primary votes in the same way they fill in their ballot papers for the lower house at an election. This means the final Resolve tables do not exclude the “uncommitted” group, which can be about 8 per cent of all respondents. There is no “uncommitted” cohort. Respondents have to choose an option.
As usual, breakdowns are offered for the three largest states (they used to have Western Australia as well, but seem to have dropped it now), which suggest a Coalition lead in New South Wales that has grown from around 51-49 last month to 53.5-46.5. In Victoria, the implication is of a stable Labor lead of around 51.5-48.5. In Queensland, however, Labor has done quite a bit better than a particularly bad result last month, suggesting a Coalition lead of 53-47 rather than 58.5-41.5, while tanking in “rest of Australia”, where both major parties lose share to independents and others.
On personal ratings, both leaders are up three on approval and down one on disapproval: Scott Morrison to 49% approval (by which I mean a combined very good and good result) and 45% disapproval (ditto for very poor and poor), Anthony Albanese to 31% and 46%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 46-23 to 45-26. I don’t normally pay much attention to breakdowns on leadership ratings, but it may be worth nothing that Albanese has a 30% undecided rating among women compared with 16% among men.
The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1606. At some point in the future, I will take a deeper look at the pollster’s peculiarities relative to its rivals. Tomorrow we should get its bi-monthly read on state voting intention in New South Wales, combining results from this month’s and last month’s surveys.
So which Liberal Senator gets to sit in the Big Red Chair, and have soirées with an excellent wine list in the President’s courtyard?
The tip is Richard Colbeck, freeing up a ministerial spot for the coming pre-election reshuffle. And another barnacle gone.
Ven – I think the fundamental difference between Trump and Biden with Covid is that Trump never took it seriously (and it showed), while Biden clearly does. As a result Biden gets the benefit of the doubt that Trump does not.
This afternoon my wife’s Samsung phone warned her that two incoming calls might be fraudulent. The screen went pink with a warning notice.
I presume Samsung or Vodafone (our mobile carrier) has installed some facility to warn users of numbers where fraudulent calls originate. My iPhone doesn’t do this.
Has anyone received one of these warnings on their phone? It is a useful facility to have.
sprocket_ says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 3:54 pm
Does Credlin get a gig… given she’s so intimate with the workings of government
sprocket_
Why should a useless bloke like Colbeck be rewarded? I get that it will free up a ministerial position, but it seems so unfair.
frednk @ #1585 Friday, September 24th, 2021 – 3:13 pm
If you are unwilling (or more likely unable) to argue your case, you probably shouldn’t have raised it.
Sceptic
Apparently the Liberals don’t approve of celebrity candidates being parachuted in.
The pigs are scrambling for a seat at the trough, with this piece in The Age..
‘The casual vacancy will begin a scramble within the Victorian Liberals ahead of preselection for the Senate ticket at the next election. Senator Sarah Henderson will be seeking the number one spot on the ticket with the other Liberal to be in the hard-to-win third spot behind Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie.
Among the potential candidates are former party director Simon Frost, a senior aide to Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, and Greg Mirabella, the husband of former MP Sophie Mirabella, who narrowly lost to Senator Henderson in the contest to replace Mitch Fifield after he left following the 2019 election.
Senator Ryan has remained quiet as to his post-politics options however it has been speculated he is in the running for a federal government-appointed position. He relocated from Melbourne to Canberra with his family late last year’
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/senate-president-scott-ryan-to-resign-from-job-leave-parliament-early-20210924-p58uif.html
President Abetz
Shellbell- I thought you would have nominated one of those NSW icons Connie Fieraventi-Wells or Jim Molan..
citizen my s10e does that. It’s handy.
I thought it might be my virus scanner but I didn’t really think too much about it.
I have another system too. If there’s no name attached to the number I don’t answer.
Two other IPA alumni are front runners for the vacancies.
Senator James Patterson and Tim Wilson –
Sprocket
Jim is sick, isn’t he?
Connie has been a bit of a party rebel of late.
Put the glasses down as ACT now heads both first and second dose vaccinations.
Thanks Aqualung. We’ve not seen that feature before so it could be something that has just been introduced. Funnily enough, I’ve now received a call from Amazon about my unpaid bill for $700…
citizen at 4:01 pm
I get a message saying that the number has been reported as spam. I have a Sansung and are with Telstra. It is very handy.
What have you got against the IPA Sprocket?
Steve777 @ #1599 Friday, September 24th, 2021 – 3:53 pm
I just saw an analysis of vaccination numbers by suburb on the 9 News and it appears that the Inner City suburbs like Kings Cross, Redfern, Newtown etc are still down around 50% 1st jab, while Campbelltown, Blacktown and other West and South West suburbs are up around 90%. So I’m guessing infection numbers are coming from the lightly vaccinated areas.
Victoria @ #1520 Friday, September 24th, 2021 – 1:14 pm
Humour is good. 😀
The one that really gets me about the nutjobs is they are gung ho for Monoclonal Antibodies but they are absolutely against vaccines…which produce antibodies.
Recently a phone scammer with a cunning plan made one fatal mistake.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/fraudster-mistakenly-attempts-phone-scam-on-police/GCO5KXB2QGMJSVYAHKBQWUFMUM/
Sohar says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 2:24 pm
It’s a complete lie – as usual from the Left.
citizen
🙂
Yes, I’ve apparently bought numerous I4s!!!
And paid handsomely for them too.
Suddenly Gladys seems to be warning that when restrictions are loosened, even people with double vax will still be able to get very sick, so she’s urging responsible behaviour. That seems a reversal of her previous insistence that vaccinations will solve everything. I wonder who’s been advising her.
Poroti, how to deal with telemarketers:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7OgWcwgB50
lizzie
She must have read my comments here on PB regarding managing expectations :P.
sprocket_ says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 4:12 pm
“Two other IPA alumni are front runners for the vacancies.
Senator James Patterson and Tim Wilson –“
Just demonstrating how little you know about the LNP.
JimmyD @ #1548 Friday, September 24th, 2021 – 2:03 pm
To my eyes and ears he seems like an ordinary bloke. You know, a real person. The sort of candidate people on forums like this keep crying out for Labor to choose as candidates. Also, a loose cannon wouldn’t have the self discipline to win 5 Olympic medals.
Honestly, it’s an abnormal person who doesn’t check out porn these days. And he’s a shooter. Put the two together and what have you got? Normal, everyday Aussie male.
Yes, there are more than one demographic of young Aussie male but he belongs to one of the biggest.
That’s why we have you here Buce, to keep us informed on all things LNP.
lizzie @ #1622 Friday, September 24th, 2021 – 4:28 pm
She may be looking at the increasing number of people being found at home, dead from the Delta Variant. You can’t just flip it off by declaring ‘Freedom!’.
Hugoaugogo says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 4:00 pm
“Ven – I think the fundamental difference between Trump and Biden with Covid is that Trump never took it seriously (“
Did nothing to develop a vaccine and didn’t catch it himself – all evidence of not taking it seriously.
Anyway Trump lost, and he’s orange… and fat. Who cares about him now?
The NSW Premier has not indicated the relaxing day for double vaccinated yet but NSW should get to 70% second dose 16+ around 6-8 October.
Trends suggest at that point NSW will be 90%+ first dose 16+ and about 70% first dose 12-15s.
The relaxing day is a Monday so 11 October seems likely but maybe, hopefully, Dr Chant may suggest 18 October (where I think they thought they were heading) which should mean 80% double dose, much of 12-15s done etc.
Repacholi Might struggle if the local members refuse to man booths – why would you when after decades of having a family oligarchy rule the seat you’ve finally got the chance to preselect one of your own locals and you get shafted by Sussex Street?
“To my eyes and ears he seems like an ordinary bloke. You know, a real person.”
“[He] like[s] football and porno and books about war.”
Apologies to Denis Leary
What did Repacholi post about porn? I must have missed something.
Lurker says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 4:39 pm
Yes, he lost and he is a dickhead and buffoon and was unPresidential but that doesn’t mean people get to tell lies about him.
Shellbell says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 4:43 pm
“To my eyes and ears he seems like an ordinary bloke. You know, a real person.”
“[He] like[s] football and porno and books about war.”
Apologies to Denis Leary
_________________
What’s this got to do with Boerwar?
Why Green could turn to German election gold
Germany’s Greens leader and former competitive trampolinist Annalena Baerbock might just manage to spring the environmentally focused party to its best election result this weekend, with far-reaching consequences for climate laggards the world over.
Success for Baerbock at the polling booth on Sunday could step up the pressure on leaders such as Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison to abandon their reluctance and back a rigorous climate action plan at the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP26, in Glasogow in November.
If opinion polls are correct, the Greens’ vote in Europe’s biggest economy could reach about 17 per cent, nearly doubling the party’s result of the election four years ago.
July’s catastrophic floods in Western Germany, which left more than 200 dead, have helped push climate change to the leading election campaign issue. About 47 per cent of the nation’s 60.4 million voters have told pollsters global warming is their principal concern, leaving the coronavirus crisis a distant second.
Germany needs a new beginning, according to Baerbock. “That can only happen with Greens in a leading role,” was one of her key campaign messages.
https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/why-the-german-election-matters-for-australia-20210923-p58u2d
Firefox2 says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 11:41 am
The Greens are responsible for the only serious attempt Australia has made at tackling emissions – the ETS/Carbon Price. Without the Greens it never would have happened. It was our policy which we took to the 2010 election, gained a mandate for, and were able to force Labor to work with us to implement as a result of being in minority government.
Yeah.
That legislation was a perversion of the democratic process. The consequences include:
– the election of the Abbott/Joyce government and the repeal of those laws
– the partial dissolution of the Labor-positive electoral plurality
– the likely permanent obstruction of further climate change prevention laws in this country
– the likely continuation of reactionary rule in Australia for many years to come
The Greens were able to extort concessions from the Gillard government. This is to Labor’s lasting discredit. They were marked down for it by the electorate and continue to be marked down. The mere hint of further similar extortion is enough to send voters scurrying to the LNP. The Greens must know they will have no such luck in extorting similar concessions from the electorate at large in the future.
Intended by the Perth Mayor as a goodwill gesture but way to rub it in to those non cave dweller states Basil . Being stuck in a lock down watching 60,000 maskless people packed into a Grand Final stadium ‘sympathy clapping’ at you would be a real morale booster 😆
Samsung’s “Smart-Call” feature is provided by Hiya; there appears to be a Hiya app for iPhones:
https://apps.apple.com/us/app/hiya-spam-phone-call-blocker/id986999874
Firefox2 says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 4:44 pm
“Success for Baerbock at the polling booth on Sunday could step up the pressure on leaders such as Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison”
Complete and utter bullshit – is this a Greens way of trying to make compost?
“To my eyes and ears he seems like an ordinary bloke.”
***
Racism (he described India as a “shit hole”) and environmental vandalism should never be normalised. Neither should American style gun culture. He isn’t an ordinary bloke, he sounds a lot like the far-right. Labor is obviously trying to win back the One Nation vote in Hunter by selecting a candidate as close to them as possible.
Who said Trump didn’t get Covid?
Just putting this here as an FYI for those not satisfied with off piste Popular Mechanics cut n’ pastes from 3 years ago …
“Complete and utter bullshit – is this a Greens way of trying to make compost?”
***
That article wasn’t written by the Greens. But I guess the truth hurts a conservative who’s world view is going the way of the dodo.
Jaeger says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 4:50 pm
Thank you for that.
Instead of responding to Briefly again.
I will mention for those that want to see Isaac Asimov’s Foundation in visual form, it’s released today.
Edit: Apple TV plus
Your corrupt Coalition at work:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k870cg2E4LM
phoenixRED @ #1586 Friday, September 24th, 2021 – 3:17 pm
Oopsie. 😳 😆