Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Some better numbers for the Morrison government, on voting intention from Roy Morgan and COVID-19 management from Essential Research.

Roy Morgan put out its now regular fortnightly poll of federal voting intention yesterday, which has Labor’s two-party lead at 52.5-47.5, down from 54.5-45.5 on a fortnight ago and its narrowest result in two months. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 38.5% (I believe the Morgan release is incorrect when it puts it at 39.5%, which would be up by two and is different from the headline), Labor is down three-and-a-half to 35%, the Greens are up one-and-a-half to 13% and One Nation is steady on 3%.

The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (out from 53-47 in the last poll, and a swing of around 6% compared with the 2019 election), 57-43 in Victoria (in from 59.5-40.5, a swing of around 4%) 51.5-48.5 in South Australia (in from 57.5-42.5, a swing of around 1%) and 55.5-44.5 in Tasmania (in from 63.5-36.5, a slight swing to the Liberals), while the Coalition leads 54-46 in Queensland (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing to Labor of around 4.5%) and 53-47 in Western Australia (out from 51-49, a swing of around 2.5% — and the Coalition’s best data point from this state all year). The poll was conducted online and by phone over the last two weekends from a sample of 2753.

Also out today was the regular Essential Research survey, containing neither voting intention nor leadership ratings on this occasion. The regular results on federal and state governments’ handling of COVID-19 is included as always, which record improvement for both the federal government and the governments of New South Wales and Victoria. The federal government’s good rating is up four to 43% and its poor rating is down one to 35%; the New South Wales government’s good rating is up six to 46%; and the Victorian government’s good rating is up six to 50%. For the other states with their small sample sizes, Queensland’s good rating is down two to 65%, Western Australia’s is up nine to 87% and South Australia’s is down nine to 67%.

Further questions from the survey suggest Western Australians and to a lesser extent Queenslanders are firmly of the view that states without outbreaks should be able to keep their borders closed for as long as they think necessary (67% and 55% respectively), but that only a minority of those in New South Wales and Victoria do so (28% and 31%). Interestingly though, only 26% of all respondents said they understood and had confidence in the plan specifically attributed to Scott Morrison, while 39% said they understood it and didn’t have confidence in it. The Essential Research poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.

Note also that today is the day of California’s gubernatorial recall election, on which Adrian Beaumont will provide live updates in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,526 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  1. Morrison will announce the new military alliance AUUKUS and try to leverage a “who is stronger on defence and anti China “election by proposing to buy back Darwin Port that will result in a major Chinese diplomatic and economic retaliation that will further bankruot Australia’s economy and leave a smouldering ruined economy with a Trillion dollar debt for the incoming Labor government.

  2. United States has announced a new “trilateral security” partnership will be formed with Australia and the United Kingdom, to be announced formally by @JoeBiden, @ScottMorrisonMP and @BorisJohnson.

    Amazing how they always manage to pull their fingers out just in time for Newspoll.

    They’ll fuck this one up too, of course, but not by Sunday evening.

  4. Sales of extra wide-angled television screens are expected to reinvigorate the Australian economy to enable”everyday” Australians to watch Scotty Morrison’s head swell and quash the pandemic and the LNP negative polling .
    Three wise men have a new idea!
    The marketing theme will be based on Johnny Cash’s “burning ring of fire”!
    Phil Coorey will announce that he knew about this announcement first and “what else could he do”.
    Mr Morrison will mention that his initial response to a ” blind trust” is to join forces with Biden and Johnson to make an announcement about “nukes”.
    “Does it get any better than this” is Mr Morrison’s expected reply.

  8. British nuclear powered submarines and/or a stuff-up

    7x Australian boats will enable production to keep going indefinitely at one every two years

  9. Libs gonna spend all your money folks on dud titanics

    Meanwhile…Japan has given first doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to 63.6% of its population, surpassing the U.S. despite starting months behind.

  13. It will be interesting to compare the reality of what Biden announces to all the hype obviously being generated by the PMO. Will it be more than dot points and “ hopes and wishes” and “ ongoing discussions ?”

    If the current submarine project is dumped what will happen to the local shipbuilding industry especially in Adelaide ? Promises were made to thousands of workers and local businesses.

    If the current submarine project is dumped how much money has been pissed up against the wall and wasted. Jobkeeper 13billion, sub programme how many billions ?

    The announcement could well be very significant and detailed or else, going on past Morrison announcements full of bluster, smoke and promises of ongoing discussion over coming never ending years.

    We shall see how much Morrison has hyped it up for local consumption compared the reality of what Biden and Boris are proposing.

  16. Australia to become ‘nuclear power’ under US, UK defence pact

    Australia is set to become a ‘nuclear power’ as it joins a new trilateral security pact with the US and UK to ‘counter China’ being announced by Joe Biden, Boris Johnson and Scott Morrison at 7am AEST.

  17. The problem in an egg shell: “How bizarre that we know far more about the Midland Junction Poultry Society than we do about the person or persons who gave perhaps up to a million dollars to a serving cabinet minister.”

    Christian Porter is beholden to a mystery benefactor. Hidden money is terrible for democracy

    What is to stop a well-heeled figure sidling up to the minister and revealing themselves?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/15/christian-porter-is-beholden-to-a-mystery-benefactor-hidden-money-is-terrible-for-democracy

  19. No money for Universities, the Arts, the disabled nor nursing homes but nuclear submarines?
    Why the emergency flights? Surely this decision wasn’t made on the spur of the moment?
    There goes the election, unless others feel as furious as I do!

  28. Australia’s capital cities to become prime ‘nuclear targets’ under US, UK defence pact

    They always were. “Doing a Bradbury” was never an option in nuclear war.

  31. Sorry to say but I reckon Jacinda Ardern dealt her country out of this new alliance with her recent pandering to China.

    Nah, NZ is a nuclear-free zone.

  35. A trade war between China and Australia has also worsened relations between the countries. The dispute, which began in April 2020 after Prime Minister Scott Morrison asked for an inquiry into the origins of Covid-19, has cost the two nations roughly $4 billion. Josh Frydenberg, Australia’s treasurer, this month accused Beijing of trying to exert “political pressure” with penalties on Australian products.

    That will prove to be a side show.. once Covid-19 is sorted & alternative supplies of coal & iron ore come back on stream China will return the favour .

  36. I’d really like to know, with a straight down the line factual answer, whether nuclear submarines are as much of a safety problem as they used to be?

  39. That will prove to be a side show.. once Covid-19 is sorted & alternative supplies of coal & iron ore come back on stream China will return the favour .

    Firstly, Iron Ore to China is about to fall in a hole anyway, so recent reports say.

    Secondly, isn’t China already sourcing Coal supplies from other countries, like Indonesia?

    Thirdly, Thermal Coal deserves to fall into a very big hole and not be revivified. And likely it will over the next few years.

  41. ‘I’d like to thank Boris and…..that guy down under….’

    Thankfully when Biden got on the teleprompter, he faithfully read out Morrison’s name.

  47. A short history of Liberal PM incompetence..

    1. Tony Abbott promised the submarine contract to the Japanese.
    2. Uproar ensued, with the next guy, Malcolm Turnbull promising the submarine contract to the French.
    3. Uproar ensued, with the next guy, Scott Morrison promising the submarine contract to the USA.

    The cost to the taxpayer of wasted billions, defence capability gaps and general incompetence is immeasurable.

  48. It has proved to be an ideal time for Porter to update his Register of Parliamentary Interests.

    Add that to the plethora of fortunate incidences that seem to follow him around.

  49. 103
    515
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    Hugh Riminton
    @hughriminton
    ·
    20m
    #BREAKING: Australia to get conventionally armed nuclear powered submarines in a new alliance with the US and UK (#AUKUS), designed says President Biden “to meet the threats of today and tomorrow.”
    @10NewsFirst

  50. Good Morning

    I understand why and the inevitably of a LNP government going down the nuclear path.

    What I object to as it was never going to alter the decision is the lack of democracy.
    If we had a Labor government such a decision would have had public debate before any deals were signed.

    Such a big strategic decision would have been done democratically. Not this fair accompli of here is the deal pass it or be traitors to your country approach.

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