Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Some better numbers for the Morrison government, on voting intention from Roy Morgan and COVID-19 management from Essential Research.

Roy Morgan put out its now regular fortnightly poll of federal voting intention yesterday, which has Labor’s two-party lead at 52.5-47.5, down from 54.5-45.5 on a fortnight ago and its narrowest result in two months. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 38.5% (I believe the Morgan release is incorrect when it puts it at 39.5%, which would be up by two and is different from the headline), Labor is down three-and-a-half to 35%, the Greens are up one-and-a-half to 13% and One Nation is steady on 3%.

The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (out from 53-47 in the last poll, and a swing of around 6% compared with the 2019 election), 57-43 in Victoria (in from 59.5-40.5, a swing of around 4%) 51.5-48.5 in South Australia (in from 57.5-42.5, a swing of around 1%) and 55.5-44.5 in Tasmania (in from 63.5-36.5, a slight swing to the Liberals), while the Coalition leads 54-46 in Queensland (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing to Labor of around 4.5%) and 53-47 in Western Australia (out from 51-49, a swing of around 2.5% — and the Coalition’s best data point from this state all year). The poll was conducted online and by phone over the last two weekends from a sample of 2753.

Also out today was the regular Essential Research survey, containing neither voting intention nor leadership ratings on this occasion. The regular results on federal and state governments’ handling of COVID-19 is included as always, which record improvement for both the federal government and the governments of New South Wales and Victoria. The federal government’s good rating is up four to 43% and its poor rating is down one to 35%; the New South Wales government’s good rating is up six to 46%; and the Victorian government’s good rating is up six to 50%. For the other states with their small sample sizes, Queensland’s good rating is down two to 65%, Western Australia’s is up nine to 87% and South Australia’s is down nine to 67%.

Further questions from the survey suggest Western Australians and to a lesser extent Queenslanders are firmly of the view that states without outbreaks should be able to keep their borders closed for as long as they think necessary (67% and 55% respectively), but that only a minority of those in New South Wales and Victoria do so (28% and 31%). Interestingly though, only 26% of all respondents said they understood and had confidence in the plan specifically attributed to Scott Morrison, while 39% said they understood it and didn’t have confidence in it. The Essential Research poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.

Note also that today is the day of California’s gubernatorial recall election, on which Adrian Beaumont will provide live updates in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,526 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 14 of 71
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  5. So are the media asking ‘how are we going to pay for it’……of course not…..Labor suggests money for the disabled, health, education etc “‘Australia cant afford it”…..sigh

  9. sprocket_ @ #647 Thursday, September 16th, 2021 – 7:30 am

    A short history of Liberal PM incompetence..

    1. Tony Abbott promised the submarine contract to the Japanese.
    2. Uproar ensued, with the next guy, Malcolm Turnbull promising the submarine contract to the French.
    3. Uproar ensued, with the next guy, Scott Morrison promising the submarine contract to the USA.

    The cost to the taxpayer of wasted billions, defence capability gaps and general incompetence is immeasurable.

    A short history of Labor opposition impotence?

  12. So Biden has announced a committee to look into Australia buying nuclear powered submarines.

    We have a contract with the french that has difficulties because a nuclear design is being converted to a conventional design.

    Looks like a sales pitch to undermines the French contract that these duffers have fallen for.

    They really are an unbelievable bunch.

    The entertainment is going to be watch the Press core fall over themselves praising a sales pitch.

  15. A godsend to the Greens, able to shore up their 10%… Jordan Steel-John tweets..

    ‘The Libs are doing what now? Buying nuclear powered submarines!? Our community is opposed to nuclear power plants on our soil. We sure won’t accept them floating in our oceans. Nuclear subs are toxic and dangerous. This is war mongering it’s got to be stopped. (1/3) #auspol

  16. mundo

    Why not sheet blame home to the Greens?

    Neither Labor or the Greens are in government. If the government is doing something wrong, then it’s just as much up to the Greens to call them out as it is for Labor.

    What’s their Shadow Ministry doing?

    **Disclaimer – not an attack on the Greens, a criticism of mundo’s thinking.

  17. Bernard Keane
    @BernardKeane
    ·
    1h
    Strange – I could swear the government has utterly screwed up a $100 billion submarine program, but all I’m reading is how exciting it is we’re going nuclear

  18. In my view mundo has definitely taken over as best Liberal Troll. P1’s kkk was not subtle, her standard has definitely fallen since outing herself.

  19. This from Mark Kenny last night

    Mark Kenny
    @markgkenny
    ·
    9h
    If as is rumoured, this relates to basing US nuclear-powered subs in Australia, how does that make us safer? Might make Australia’s security worse not better. And doesn’t the US Navy have a policy of neither confirming or denying nuclear weapons.

  21. “ Sorry to say but I reckon Jacinda Ardern dealt her country out of this new alliance with her recent pandering to China.”

    You’re an idiot c@t:

    Morrison has dealt your grandchildren … out of existing.

    In your warped mind ‘we’re white we’re white, we have Murdoch to tell us who to vote for’ gives the Anglosphere some sense of moral authority to stand up to the yellow devils, cause of ‘democracy’ and ‘human rights’ or something something … (oops about our close ties to Saudi Arabia etc etc).

    This is 100% about a nuclear election. ScoMo will win. The greens will wedge. SkyNews will dominate. Monopolies will abound. Bruz will demolish the rest of the bush. Ain’t it grand.

    Stay where you are NZ. I’m outta here.

  22. Frednk

    They are both obvious and player one certainly goes down as one of the most idiotic posters. Fancy choosing the KKK hill to show your true colours.

    Can’t take them seriously ever at all.

  23. Biden and Johnson conversation.

    Johnson: Joe what are we going to do to counter this potential threat from China in the Pacific region.
    Biden:We need to get some nuclear subs in the area.
    Johnson: How and where?
    Biden: Look we’ll rope that dickhead Morrison in on some grand scheme of promises of a couple of nuclear subs sometime next century for Australia. That way while he’s waiting for his subs we can park ours in some of his northern ports. The idiot will get his grand announcement to divert from the clusterfuck his government has caused all round in Australia. Win, Win!
    Johnson: Fuck you’re good Joe, but I’ve already been working the clown over with the trade deal and talking him into imposing UK style freedoms for Australia, so I don’t look as stupid as I am.
    Biden: Way to go Boris, catch ya!
    Johnson: Gee’s you’re good Joe

  25. zoomster,
    You won’t get a reply from mundo because it’s very hard for him to justify his trolling with a rational answer. Pointing out the facts, as you have done, won’t stop him either. He’s on a mission to denigrate Labor at every turn (with 1 or 2 comments of faint praise so he can say he 100% doesn’t bag them all the time), and nothing or no one will stop him.

    And you can guarantee that if Labor do win the federal election he will be along every day finding something to criticise them for.

  28. Richard Willingham
    @rwillingham
    ·
    13m
    Victorian AMA says loosening restrictions before 80 per cent of adults fully vaccinated ‘reckless’
    A nurse wearing a face mask and latex gloves prepares to tap a syringe of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine
    Easing restrictions before 80 pc of adults fully vaccinated ‘reckless’ — AMA
    The peak body representing doctors is pushing for a plan that would see the state in lockdown until November to avoid the public health system being “saturated”.
    abc.net.au
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-16/ama-restrictions-stay-until-80-percent-fully-vaccinated/100465462?utm_campaign=news-article-next-actions-panel-2-1&utm_content=twitter&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web

  29. zoomster @ #666 Thursday, September 16th, 2021 – 7:43 am

    mundo

    Why not sheet blame home to the Greens?

    Neither Labor or the Greens are in government. If the government is doing something wrong, then it’s just as much up to the Greens to call them out as it is for Labor.

    What’s their Shadow Ministry doing?

    **Disclaimer – not an attack on the Greens, a criticism of mundo’s thinking.

    Labor is the alternative government.
    Don’t be thick.

  35. Morrison tried to be “statesmanlike” with his strong, firm delivery (that sounded very rehearsed to me). Boris and Biden simply read from their prompters with no dramatics. Leaders with confidence.

  36. mundo,
    If The Greens have Shadow Ministers, they see themselves as part of an alternative government.

    So there goes that pathetic excuse to not criticise them.

  37. Andrew Earlwood

    Labor has to either let itself be blackmailed or start hammering democracy.

    It’s easier if you oppose nuclear to argue but if you support it you want a democratic not authoritarian decision to take people along.

  38. ” Strange – I could swear the government has utterly screwed up a $100 billion submarine program, but all I’m reading is how exciting it is we’re going nuclear”

    We need to see what has actually been agreed and what it actually involves, not the Murdochised hype. And yes, billions wasted on the French submarine contract will be conveniently forgotten, assuming that it is actually affected.

  40. zoomster says:
    Thursday, September 16, 2021 at 7:43 am

    Why not sheet blame home to the Greens?

    This is a fitting reward for the Greens, whose descendants include the Nuclear Disarmament Party, and who have nevertheless campaigned tirelessly for the re-election of LNP governments.

  41. Zoomster

    It’s not strange. That’s a beat up off those aiming to discredit the Greens. Interesting timing with this undemocratic decision being made.

  43. mundo @ #219 Thursday, September 16th, 2021 – 7:53 am

    Frednk @ #668 Thursday, September 16th, 2021 – 7:44 am

    In my view mundo has definitely taken over as best Liberal Troll. P1’s kkk was not subtle, her standard has definitely fallen since outing herself.

    Fuck off Freedunk you moron.

    It’s not your blog, mundo. Which is why you’re still here when others have long since tired of your entirely predictable schtick.

    Btw, frednk is a much-respected, long term contributor to the blog. You, not so much.

  44. So how much does it cost to whack out the diesel engines or coal-fired boilers or whatever and whack in some nuclear reactors? Where’s the money coming from? Says no one.

  46. I’d like to see the proposed AUUKUS alliance deal more spelt out.

    If Biden can’t even remember ou PM’s name in a ground breaking strategic deal, then you have to wonder what is in it for Australia.

  47. Steve777 @ #224 Thursday, September 16th, 2021 – 7:54 am

    ” Strange – I could swear the government has utterly screwed up a $100 billion submarine program, but all I’m reading is how exciting it is we’re going nuclear”

    We need to see what has actually been agreed and what it actually involves, not the Murdochised hype. And yes, billions wasted on the French submarine contract will be conveniently forgotten, assuming that it is actually affected.

    The Coalition thought it money well-spent to save Christopher Pyne. 😆

  48. P1 and Mundo are best ignored.

    They only come here to rub people up the wrong way and get a reaction.

    Then they run with it for all it’s worth.

    It’s how they roll in their miserable lives.

    Seriously why would anyone even bother responding to them knowing their proven history?

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