Roy Morgan put out its now regular fortnightly poll of federal voting intention yesterday, which has Labor’s two-party lead at 52.5-47.5, down from 54.5-45.5 on a fortnight ago and its narrowest result in two months. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 38.5% (I believe the Morgan release is incorrect when it puts it at 39.5%, which would be up by two and is different from the headline), Labor is down three-and-a-half to 35%, the Greens are up one-and-a-half to 13% and One Nation is steady on 3%.
The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (out from 53-47 in the last poll, and a swing of around 6% compared with the 2019 election), 57-43 in Victoria (in from 59.5-40.5, a swing of around 4%) 51.5-48.5 in South Australia (in from 57.5-42.5, a swing of around 1%) and 55.5-44.5 in Tasmania (in from 63.5-36.5, a slight swing to the Liberals), while the Coalition leads 54-46 in Queensland (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing to Labor of around 4.5%) and 53-47 in Western Australia (out from 51-49, a swing of around 2.5% — and the Coalition’s best data point from this state all year). The poll was conducted online and by phone over the last two weekends from a sample of 2753.
Also out today was the regular Essential Research survey, containing neither voting intention nor leadership ratings on this occasion. The regular results on federal and state governments’ handling of COVID-19 is included as always, which record improvement for both the federal government and the governments of New South Wales and Victoria. The federal government’s good rating is up four to 43% and its poor rating is down one to 35%; the New South Wales government’s good rating is up six to 46%; and the Victorian government’s good rating is up six to 50%. For the other states with their small sample sizes, Queensland’s good rating is down two to 65%, Western Australia’s is up nine to 87% and South Australia’s is down nine to 67%.
Further questions from the survey suggest Western Australians and to a lesser extent Queenslanders are firmly of the view that states without outbreaks should be able to keep their borders closed for as long as they think necessary (67% and 55% respectively), but that only a minority of those in New South Wales and Victoria do so (28% and 31%). Interestingly though, only 26% of all respondents said they understood and had confidence in the plan specifically attributed to Scott Morrison, while 39% said they understood it and didn’t have confidence in it. The Essential Research poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.
Note also that today is the day of California’s gubernatorial recall election, on which Adrian Beaumont will provide live updates in the post below.
Sir Henry
Then don’t raise failed attempts to paint a false picture when we know success was achieved.
Mexicanbeemer @ Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 5:10 pm
That is news to me. I just don’t understand such a strategy for a minority party. Obviously it stirs up the entrenched supporters, but how does it attract additional votes? Are there soft Green votes that are shored up by such an action? Are they playing 3D chess here?
Rational and knowledgeable bludgers would know that the POTUS routinely orders kinetic activity without the botheration of declaring war.
Deluded but self-absorbed omniscient Greens smartarses not so much.
If McGowan had not seized the opportunity to make Upper House reform in WA, he would have had rocks in his head. I’m really pleased the scourge of group ticket voting is going too. I’m hoping it will persuade the Victorian government to finally drop it as well. When/if a McGowanesque once in a century fluke result gives the ALP effective Parliamentary control at the Federal level – probably the best it can hope for is a progressive friendly Senate – if it has any sense it will likewise seize the opportunity to remake the country. The coalition never feels constrained by such trifles as keeping election promises. Energy, environment, taxation, anti-corruption, media regulation, health and education policy and practice all need to be redone from the ground up. Establishment interests will need to be locked out and kept out from day one. One can only dream.
FWIW, amongst the Labor clique apparently triggered around here today no doubt it’s not worth much.
The Greens naming their shadow ministers thing happened in 2019 and it seems to have been resurrected by mistake earlier today via someone on twitter. I believe it was from when RDN was claiming the Greens to be the real opposition and in many policy matters it seemingly remains the case.
PB commentariat two years behind the debate?
Australian Greens announce new shadow ministries for the real opposition
MEDIA RELEASE RICHARD DI NATALE 5 JUL 2019
The rantings of anyone on PB seem like the proverbial bees fart in the firmament of auspol so go right ahead.
I think Labor’s support for the Smoko gas led recovery, Beetaloo, more new coal and gutlessness in the face of global pressure to announce more ambition in regard to climate action from Australia. As well as the regular caving in to Libs on policy matters is more consequential.
BW
You are the one claiming someone is a traitor not me.
guytaur 1 at 5:16 pm
In theory yes but the AUMF* act passed under Dubya made a nice little loophole to get around such inconveniences. Supposedly it was just for the 9/11 people but every president since has used it for all sorts of other reasons.
.
“Authorization for Use of Military Force of 2001
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Authorization_for_Use_of_Military_Force_of_2001
‘Quoll says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 5:21 pm
FWIW, amongst the Labor clique apparently triggered…’
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Bandt is helping Morrison. Scum meet scum.
BW
Nah you are helping Morrison. Running the Murdoch narrative is a great help to the LNP
Quoll @ Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 5:21 pm
Thank you for supporting my contention that The Greens have lost their way post Gillard government. Sad as well that it has taken me a while to realise.
yabba @ #388 Wednesday, September 15th, 2021 – 5:09 pm
This comment has drawn me out. FOR CHRISTS FEKKING SAKE!!! Tasmania is the second oldest state in the country (previously a colony) the rest of it was all NSW. If you don’t like the current situation hold a referendum to change the constitution and remove our right to have 12 senators. You’re a fekkin plonker, always bringing this up. I know you don’t like Tasmania or Tasmanian’s, why? I don’t know. Your loss pal
‘guytaur says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 5:21 pm
BW
You are the one claiming someone is a traitor not me.’
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Stop triggering yourself and jumping to false conclusions. When I referred to a deluded and self absorbed omniscient Greens I was not referring to you because you are not even a Greens indian. Quoll however, is a chief, so we had better all jump to it when he issues an ukase.
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 5:14 pm
Sir H P
If you follow your reasoning down its rathole:
You are proposing that it is both constitutional and reflective of democracy that military officers should be the ones who decide when and how wars are started by the US.
Vale US democracy?
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So boerwar, if President Trump had decided to launch an unprovoked attack on another country, the military should have just gone along with it? You would not consider a war in such circumstances a travesty?
Even senior military officers have a duty to their conscience and to the real interests of their country and humanity itself for that matter.
If a deranged commander in chief wants to then sack or court martial his senior staff for mutiny, let him do so and explain to the people why he wants to pursue a war in such circumstances.
BW
You are the one that called a US General a traitor.
You are the one that runs the Murdoch narrative the Greens are extreme.
guytaur @ #383 Wednesday, September 15th, 2021 – 5:06 pm
What a bunch of undemocratic bastards!
Rumours are flying thick and fast around inside the Bubble today. They have been for about a week. Something interesting may break tomorrow morning.
The country whinge in WA has just started on electoral reform.
On local talk-back radio, front and centre, the old chestnuts about country people being hard done by with the change is wheeled out.
In the normal balanced way, the station (6PR) got a National lady on board to bleed all over the floor. Absolutely no attempt to point out the gross inequity in the value of the vote as it now stands. Of course, the voting process in the Senate was brought, up suggesting that one-vote-one-value did not operate there – but friends and neighbours, no mention of the PV process for the whole State or the role of the Senate from times of Federation.
Good luck with McGowan on this one….He knows, and the conservatives know, that the situation would never change under a LNP government of any colour…..
Bert
Oi, don’t go around upsetting the New Hollanders 🙂
I really have to steer clear of this site for a while, it’s doing my head in. On closing I’d just say to anyone hesitant about getting the covid vax. Don’t be. I’ve got most of the co-morbidities often mentioned. Side effects I’ve had? NONE!!! So if you’re hesitant for whatever reason, don’t be . Do yourself and everyone you interact with a favour and get the jab.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/09/15/morgan-52-5-47-5-to-labor-5/comment-page-9/#comment-3703378
A referendum to reduce the number of Tasmanian senators, without equally reducing the number of Senators in each other original state, would not get very far because it would require a majority in Tasmania to pass.
The only realistic way to reduce malapportionment in the Senate is subdividing the larger states. So for NSW that means reviving the Newcastle including New England statehood proposal and probably another based on Wollongong and the South Coast.
‘Sir Henry Parkes says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 5:26 pm
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 5:14 pm
Sir H P
If you follow your reasoning down its rathole:
You are proposing that it is both constitutional and reflective of democracy that military officers should be the ones who decide when and how wars are started by the US.
Vale US democracy?
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
So boerwar, if President Trump had decided to launch an unprovoked attack on another country, the military should have just gone along with it? You would not consider a war in such circumstances a travesty?
….
___________________________
Unprovoked? How much provocation do you want?
The Chinese have been waging incessant cyber war against the US including bringing down US infrastructure. They have stolen massive amounts of IP from the US. They routinely flout international norms and standards with warlike activities that include military incursions into the territories of other people including treaty allies of the US such as the Philippines. Their puppet state North Korea routinely flouts UN resolutions and routinely conducts provocative missile tests including over the sovereign territory of US allies. They routinely threaten war and destruction on the US and its allies.
guytaur says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 5:18 pm
Sir Henry
Then don’t raise failed attempts to paint a false picture when we know success was achieved.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
At the risk of not taking my own advice, I do not believe that what I stated was in any way a false picture. The Greens did block Labor’s attempt at carbon pricing in 2010. By the time “success was achieved” with carbon pricing in 2011, the politics of climate change had turned toxic. Gillard was successfully labelled a liar, Abbott became prime minister and buried the carbon price.
This really is the last comment I will make about this subject.
Tom the first and best @ Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 5:32 pm
And Sydney becomes an Antipodean Berlin? 🙂
Sir Henry.
That was not the fault of the Greens. That’s your false picture. Pretending the Greens and Labor too for that matter had 100% foresight.
TTFAB – actually, if we were serious about remaking the Senate, we’d abolish all of the States and replace them with, say, 20 Regional governments, all based on a more logical understanding of homogenous regions (so Sydney and Melbourne would get one, or maybe two regions, Albury and Wodonga would be in the same Region, central Australia would be its own region – one quite possibly Aboriginal majority – and so on). Each region would have say, five Senators, making a 100-member Senate to go with a 200-member House. Tasmania would basically remain as it is in this scenario.
Will never happen of course, but worth thinking about.
Boerwar says
Unprovoked? How much provocation do you want?
The Chinese have been waging incessant cyber war against the US including bringing down US infrastructure. They have stolen massive amounts of IP from the US. They routinely flout international norms and standards with warlike activities that include military incursions into the territories of other people including treaty allies of the US such as the Philippines. Their puppet state North Korea routinely flouts UN resolutions and routinely conducts provocative missile tests including over the sovereign territory of US allies. They routinely threaten war and destruction on the US and its allies.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Surely Boerwar you are not saying that China’s actions merit some sort of pre-emptive military strike?
I am no fan of China, its repressive state and its territorial ambitions in Taiwan and the South China Sea. But woo, I’m no more keen on going to war with China than I was with going to war with Iraq in 2003.
What is needed is smart diplomacy, backed up with judiciously-considered tough action when and where it is required.
Oh, I see. ‘The Greens did it in 2019’. So that’s okay then?
That would be the election where the Coalition successfully ran a scare campaign against the Labor Party by linking them to The Greens, which scared many a voter away from Labor.
Yes, I’m sure The Greens didn’t mind that outcome at all. It gave them 3 more years of bitching and moaning at Labor, followed by bowling up the same absurd ridiculousness again. What’s not to like for The Greens?
p
Had New Holland evolved as a Dutch colony it would have formed part and parcel of the Netherlands East Indies.
South Irian. And we would all be speaking Bahasa now.
Cat
That would be the election where Labor partisans like you blame the Greens for the actions of the LNP Media and Labor party for a Labor election loss.
Sir Henry Parkes says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 5:43 pm
boerwar says
Unprovoked? How much provocation do you want?
The Chinese have been waging incessant cyber war against the US including bringing down US infrastructure. They have stolen massive amounts of IP from the US. They routinely flout international norms and standards with warlike activities that include military incursions into the territories of other people including treaty allies of the US such as the Philippines. Their puppet state North Korea routinely flouts UN resolutions and routinely conducts provocative missile tests including over the sovereign territory of US allies. They routinely threaten war and destruction on the US and its allies.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Surely boerwar you are not saying that China’s actions merit some sort of pre-emptive military strike?
…
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Not my call, actually. Not your’s either. Nor is it that of any self-important military person. Not in a democracy.
That said, China is always testing the limits and it should not be surprised when those limits go beyond the edge. Were the POTUS me I would have told the Chinese that I was willing to authorize a missile strike on the massed chinese ‘fishing’ fleet that grabbed yet another bit of Philippines territory earlier this year. Then I would have let the Chinese decide whether THEY wanted to be the ones who triggered an all out war.
The reform of the Upper House in WA is not a bridge too far …Reform of the Senate would be, I suggest, a mammoth task involving I suspect a change to the Constitution, a referendum and a total rethink of how Oz is governed. The former is do-able, the latter, mission impossible in today’s climate…..
Nor should we forget that it was Trump who ordered the US out of Afghanistan.
Boerwar @ #432 Wednesday, September 15th, 2021 – 5:48 pm
I guess we should all thank our lucky stars that the actual POTUS has a bit more sense.
Gee the Greens versus the Rest seems to expend a lot of energy here………For what its worth, those I know who vote Green these days, were actually Labor voters once upon a time. They despise the Liberals as much as many Labor supporters do, but they have moved their left-of-centre vote for good.
Save your useless breath P1. I never read your posts.
Anyway, nothing can upset me on this happy day!
I have pressed local submit on my ARC Linkage. They will come back with suggestions for changes, but I just about have the headspace to robotically make these.
And I really do mean this will be last ever. I said than in 2019, and 2020, but this time I really do mean it.
I think my younger colleagues have got the message that “I am outta here”. It’s been a blast, but by this time next year I want to be running astronomy glamping tours in the Pyrenees.
‘Tricot says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 5:52 pm
Gee the Greens versus the Rest seems to expend a lot of energy here………For what its worth, those I know who vote Green these days, were actually Labor voters once upon a time. They despise the Liberals as much as many Labor supporters do, but they have moved their left-of-centre vote for good.’
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For which gift Scummo and Joyce are truly grateful.
Boerwar at 5:51 pm
Something else the military thwarted the first time around.
D&N
Best wishes with your application. Your earlier (wise) rant about the destructiveness of the rule changes seems to have been heard in the halls of ARC wisdom as well…
‘poroti says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 5:54 pm
Boerwar at 5:51 pm
Nor should we forget that it was Trump who ordered the US out of Afghanistan.
Something else the military thwarted the first time around.’
________________________________
Yep. It is not the ‘wisdom’ of any one decision that I am on about. It is about the dangerous degradation of US democracy when the generals see themselves as active players. That is a slippery slope, IMO.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/09/15/morgan-52-5-47-5-to-labor-5/comment-page-9/#comment-3703392
Multi-state cities would be messy.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/09/15/morgan-52-5-47-5-to-labor-5/comment-page-9/#comment-3703395
As long as a majority of the voters in at least one state like being a state, rather than some other type of jurisdiction, states they all will remain.
guytaur @ #219 Wednesday, September 15th, 2021 – 5:45 pm
Thankfully, guytaur, I have something better to do for the rest of the night and will not be playing your silly little bitch slap game with you.
poroti:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 5:16 pm
[‘Ministerial standards ? Dead buried and cremated over 20 years ago by……….’]
I can’t get enough of Howard’s most interesting parts.
The WA electoral reform plan as woken me from hibernation.
I understand this is the same model as used in NSW and SA although only half the NSW and SA MLCs are up for election each four years.
How do the parties choose candidates? Just go through a process to find 21 (in NSW) in order? Or do they have a shorter list on the basis of how many seats they think they can win? I hope my question makes sense.
I suspect the Liberals will be quietly happy with this. Many regard the Nats as the true enemy.
And the powerbrokers Goiran and Collier would see this as a chance to get more of their Christian mates into winnable positions.
Cat
In other words you know I am right.
You know you are blaming the Greens for Labors failure.
BW…Well, maybe…but perhaps a more pragmatic approach is to accept that the rag-bag of “traditional” Green voters plus the defectors from Labor are a 10% block of votes on the left side of politics that Labor just needs to acknowledge.
As things stand, I doubt Labor can get into office without Green preferences but if government becomes Labor, does not mean Labor has to fall for every Green loony suggestion they push Labor’s way either…..
Some of the older Bludgers may remember this highly principled, senior member of the US clergy:
https://www.episcopalnewsservice.org/2021/09/13/rip-rt-rev-john-shelby-spong-newark-bishop-who-pushed-for-lgbtq-inclusion-dies-at-90/
I have a post up on the WA Legislative Council reforms:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/09/15/western-australian-legislative-council-reform-plan-announced/