Roy Morgan put out its now regular fortnightly poll of federal voting intention yesterday, which has Labor’s two-party lead at 52.5-47.5, down from 54.5-45.5 on a fortnight ago and its narrowest result in two months. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 38.5% (I believe the Morgan release is incorrect when it puts it at 39.5%, which would be up by two and is different from the headline), Labor is down three-and-a-half to 35%, the Greens are up one-and-a-half to 13% and One Nation is steady on 3%.
The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (out from 53-47 in the last poll, and a swing of around 6% compared with the 2019 election), 57-43 in Victoria (in from 59.5-40.5, a swing of around 4%) 51.5-48.5 in South Australia (in from 57.5-42.5, a swing of around 1%) and 55.5-44.5 in Tasmania (in from 63.5-36.5, a slight swing to the Liberals), while the Coalition leads 54-46 in Queensland (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing to Labor of around 4.5%) and 53-47 in Western Australia (out from 51-49, a swing of around 2.5% — and the Coalition’s best data point from this state all year). The poll was conducted online and by phone over the last two weekends from a sample of 2753.
Also out today was the regular Essential Research survey, containing neither voting intention nor leadership ratings on this occasion. The regular results on federal and state governments’ handling of COVID-19 is included as always, which record improvement for both the federal government and the governments of New South Wales and Victoria. The federal government’s good rating is up four to 43% and its poor rating is down one to 35%; the New South Wales government’s good rating is up six to 46%; and the Victorian government’s good rating is up six to 50%. For the other states with their small sample sizes, Queensland’s good rating is down two to 65%, Western Australia’s is up nine to 87% and South Australia’s is down nine to 67%.
Further questions from the survey suggest Western Australians and to a lesser extent Queenslanders are firmly of the view that states without outbreaks should be able to keep their borders closed for as long as they think necessary (67% and 55% respectively), but that only a minority of those in New South Wales and Victoria do so (28% and 31%). Interestingly though, only 26% of all respondents said they understood and had confidence in the plan specifically attributed to Scott Morrison, while 39% said they understood it and didn’t have confidence in it. The Essential Research poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.
Note also that today is the day of California’s gubernatorial recall election, on which Adrian Beaumont will provide live updates in the post below.
N @ #345 Wednesday, September 15th, 2021 – 4:27 pm
Umm. You very clearly don’t. This appears to be a classic case of projection.
D & M
If Labor is framing policy to suit Murdoch they have already lost the election. It’s foolish of Labor to put its fate in the hands of Murdoch.
https://chaser.com.au/national/prime-minister-who-said-we-cant-blindly-trust-porters-alleged-victim-blindly-trusts-1m-donation/
… similar content on The Shovel, the unAustralian, even [Murdoch Infotainment].com.au.
Guytaur
The language might be similar but the polices are different.
Beemer
I posted an article from the Daily Mail. Biden is taxing the wealthy. That’s the Greens policy.
The Daily Mail that well known far left rag.
Was it really only a matter of time?
https://www.humblehouse.com.au/product/ned-gets-his-covid-shot-by-karen-chappelow/
So, how long before someone puts it out there that Porters “blind trust” is a front for a foreign Govt that he is in thrall too?? Man has more questions to answer than a PM getting pinged oabout 30yr old home renovations i reckon. 🙂
WA Upper House reform can only occur with a Labor government with a majority in both houses.
It has been manifestly unfair that in some instances 1 vote in the current Upper House is worth up to 3 times that in some Lower House seats. As some wag put it, 1 person + 2 sheep = 3 votes. Such reform will never come from the LNP side of politics – especially from the Nationals.
The attack from the Nationals on this step will aim to say the action is “unfair” in that it was not a part of the Labor agenda at the last election. Secondly, the cry will go up that it is “unfair” that 90% of the electorate which lives in Perth are entitled to 90% of the decision making in the Upper House . Thirdly, that somehow, the reform will be deemed as “unfair” because it is somehow “undemocratic”…..
Secretly, the Liberals, despite their likely shouting against any change, will actually be pleased to get the National monkey off their back.
It should be remembered that the Nationals in WA are electoral harlots willing to bed down with either Labor or Liberal depending upon what price the suitors are prepared to pay for their support….
Guytaur
Biden is targeting people on over $400k a year but the Greens think $80k a year is rich.
guytaur says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 4:31 pm
D & M
If Labor is framing policy to suit Murdoch they have already lost the election. It’s foolish of Labor to put its fate in the hands of Murdoch.
It has nothing to do with policy. It has all to do with Murdoch promoting the only thing the Greens really stand for “we want to screw Labor”.
“Biden is targeting people on over $400k a year but the Greens think $80k a year is rich.”
That’s a start at least. Good on him.
Beemer
The Greens are targeting the wealthy. They argue for a progressive tax system not the LNP flat tax that has the poor paying the most.
Good try at deflecting from the core point of the policy goal.
FredNK
Glad to see you are honest about Murdoch deciding Labor policy.
‘Sir Henry Parkes says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 4:15 pm
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 8:18 am
Democracy is a long way down the tubes when, in effect, the military mutinied in the US.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
I wouldn’t call it mutiny. I think the US chiefs of staff preparing to refuse an order to attack China would be a case of disobeying a bad order. It was ruled at the Nuremberg war trials that military personnel were morally obligated to disobey orders to commit war crimes. That still holds.’
_____________________________________________
There was no order. What was the purported war crime?
guytaur
But have you noticed how the Murdoch media uses the Greens to scare people off voting Labor.
Like me, I am sure you are not a Daily Telegraph reader, but if you go for a walk, you will see the front page of the Daily Telegraph everywhere.
Guytaur
Biden is not targeting people on less than $400k and the Greens have called tax cuts for people on $80k a year as tax cuts for the rich.
Victoria Police Chief Commissioner Shane Patton says more than 2000 police will patrol Melbourne’s CBD on Saturday, making it one of the biggest operations in decades.
“This will be one of our largest operations we’ve conducted I think since the World Economic Forum many years ago,” he said. “This is a significant operation … this is the biggest game in town for us to stop this occur.”
In August, six police officers were hospitalised and more than 200 people were arrested during anti-lockdown protests that brought chaos to Melbourne’s CBD.
At the time, the Victorian government derided the protests as a “slap in the face”, with police claiming more than 4000 people turned up in contravention of the state’s COVID-19 restrictions.
Mr Patton said tracking protester movements could sometimes be challenging because organisers used encrypted messaging services to coordinate their movements. “It’s made very difficult through encrypted applications used by the organisers,” he said.
D & M
Yes. So Labor has to have a good campaign that does not buy the narrative.
It does not have to throw out progressive policies acceptable to the President of the United States to do that.
@samanthamaiden tweets
BREAKING: PM has today sought advice on whether the blind trust arrangement conforms to the ministerial standards more to come. @newscomauHQ
Itza,
Thanks for your info earlier about the recall of doctors to hospitals.
I am now completely depressed about COVID. It is in our community, and the disadvantaged and indigenous are really going to suffer.
I am really impressed by what the health professionals are doing – it sounds like incredible thought work.
Has anyone pointed out yet that Labor have already announced their candidate to replace Joel Fitzgibbon for the seat of Hunter?
A 5 time Olympian no less!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/13/mining-union-backs-daniel-repacholi-as-labor-candidate-in-hunter-to-replace-joel-fitzgibbon
An update to this story is that Albanese today announced Repacholi as Labor’s candidate.
Earlier today, Andrew Hastie said on ABC radio that in accepting money from an unknown benefactor, Christian Porter has done nothing wrong. So far, so good. This is obviously how Hastie sees the world of politics.
However, Hastie went on to say that the reason Porter had done nothing wrong is that he had done no more than any of the other member of Parliament who had accepted similar payments from benefactors. Does anyone know who some of these politicians who have accepted cash payments or the like might be?
Douglas and Milko @ #153 Wednesday, September 15th, 2021 – 4:50 pm
And The Greens with their absurd announcement today that they are going to refer to themselves as Shadow Ministers in a Labor power-sharing government, plays right into the Coalition’s hands and their scare campaign.
The Greens have every right to try and win lower house seats and if they end up holding the balance of power in a hung House of Representatives, then they also have every right to make demands of the major parties in return for supporting which one to form government.
However, the Greens would have to back a Labor government; to do otherwise would see their support base fall away pretty quickly. It is probably why Albo can confidently state that Labor will not form a coalition government with the Greens.
But the Greens’ attempts to win more than one lower house seat have so far failed. Things could change in future elections, but I would not think that likely in the near term. It is therefore best for the Greens to concentrate on the Senate, where their parliamentary strength lies and where they can negotiate with a Labor government to implement progressive legislation.
I would only hope the Greens don’t repeat the mistake of 2010 and vote down progressive legislation because it is not everything they want.
Just received a letter from Scomo and Hunt advising me (as being one over 59y.o.) to get a Covid vaccine if I haven’t already, in particular the AstraZeneca vaccine as that is all that is available to me.
From the wording of the letter this has been sent out to all those aged 60+ irrespective of whether they have already had the vaccine or not (and the letter says 80%+ already have).
I have already had my first dose (Pfizer thank you) and people like me in WA, Qld, NT and here in SA can do the same now.
What a waste of money
guytaur @ #157 Wednesday, September 15th, 2021 – 4:55 pm
Oh, that old Get Out of Jail Free card for Coalition MPs who may have done nothing illegal but definitely immoral and unethical.
Boerwar at 4:50 pm
They have a book to sell so upward and onward with sensational claims. Even the army guy Vindman who testified against Trump at the impeachment* has put the boot into their actions.
* Later fired by Trump so hardly a ‘Trump fanboi’.
Hastie is right. Nothing that any of this Government’s ministers has done, is doing, or will do can ever possibly be wrong.
Just ask him. And them.
EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.TOUCH.
p
I wouldn’t know what was true and what not. But I do believe open assertions by CiCs that he was communicating with a potential war enemy and assuring them that he would give them PRIOR notice of any real attack is, IMO, mutinous and traitorous.
It is also an indicator of how sick US democracy has become.
Suppose the next military apparatchik decides he does not like the way Biden is NOT going to wage war on China?
Sir Henry
Your claim fails the fact test. The Greens came to the party. As a result Labor passed the carbon price legislation
Is Hastie saying that MP’s are taking secret payments but that is the vary definition of corruption.
Are the Chicom seeking to undermine Australian parliamentary standards by secretly funding Porter?
@AdamBandt tweets
The Greens will seek to move a motion of no confidence in Christian Porter when parliament resumes.
Ministers shouldn’t take donations without disclosing who they’re from.
The Greens have lost at least one voter for them in the Senate, as a result their current political strategy to become the balance of power in the House of Representatives. They have lost their way since the minority Gillard government. Working against the greater progressive movement. Their announcement of shadow ministers today was a bridge too far. Sad.
UK Ministers have been warned that without new measures to damp down Covid-19 infections, hospital admissions could soon soar beyond the peak seen at the start of 2021 to as many as 7,000 a day.
And chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty said that the NHS could get into trouble in its first winter with the Delta variant, even without the emergence of a new coronavirus strain with resistance to vaccines.
The warnings came as Boris Johnson said he was “confident” that the UK could get through the autumn and winter without the return of lockdown restrictions – though he set out a “plan B” which could see mandatory face masks, Covid passports and guidance to work from home reintroduced in the case of an upsurge in cases, admissions and deaths.
One expert warned that, with positive cases currently running at around eight times higher than at this time last year, any delay in imposing new measures could make it “impossible to close the stable door before the horse bolts”.
And a poll by Savanta ComRes suggested that the public is ready for tough action to clamp down on the current resurgence in the disease, with 51 per cent saying they would back a two-week “firebreak” lockdown in October to stop cases rising from their current level.
boerwar
Sure ticks alot of the required boxes.
boerwar says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 4:50 pm
‘Sir Henry Parkes says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 4:15 pm
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 8:18 am
Democracy is a long way down the tubes when, in effect, the military mutinied in the US.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
I wouldn’t call it mutiny. I think the US chiefs of staff preparing to refuse an order to attack China would be a case of disobeying a bad order. It was ruled at the Nuremberg war trials that military personnel were morally obligated to disobey orders to commit war crimes. That still holds.’
_____________________________________________
There was no order. What was the purported war crime?
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
I should have been a little clearer. The reports I assume you were referring to concerned fears among US military chiefs that Trump might provoke a conflict with China in order to create an emergency in which he might remain in the White House.
No such order to attack was ever given, but the reports claimed US chiefs were planning to defy such orders and even contacted the Chinese top brass to assure them no such attack would ever happen.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Tricot @ #358 Wednesday, September 15th, 2021 – 4:44 pm
I suggest that what is manifestly unfair is that a Tasmanian voter’s Senate vote is worth over 13 times a NSW voter’s. What is especially galling is that they use it to elect fundamental orifices like ericabetz.
Ministerial standards? The Morrison government?
@AlboMP tweets
I know pubs are closed at the moment, but this does not pass the pub test.
Christian Porter has declared an unknown donor helped pay his legal fees through a blind trust.
Unbelievable and absurd.
This is precisely the sort of issue that undermines confidence in our political system.
Morrison Government ministers should not be accepting donations from unknown sources.
The Prime Minister once said “the standard you walk past, is the standard you accept.”
The Prime Minister cannot walk past this.
Griff
Its not the first time the Greens have gone out claiming titles for themselves. Before the 2010 Victorian election the Greens leader announced he was going to be the next transport minister which lead to the Liberals putting the Greens last.
“Ministerial standards? The Morrison government?”
Mutually exclusive concepts. 🙁
Boerwar at 5:05 pm
The comrades abandoned their efforts after realising their efforts were as nothing compared to those of the Morrison Liberal party.
Sir H P
If you follow your reasoning down its rathole:
You are proposing that it is both constitutional and reflective of democracy that military officers should be the ones who decide when and how wars are started by the US.
Vale US democracy?
p
haha. I constrained myself to just one half of the ludicrous…
Oh the plight of Leigh Sales:
“ All the journalists I mentioned above — notably some of the fairest, most experienced and non-partisan reporters in the country — are derided on Twitter as lickspittles for the Liberal Party. The scale of the pile-on is disturbing and it mostly passes without remark by any politician.”
Leigh can’t handle the truth. I don’t engage with her on Twitter, but know a bunch of folk who do, pointing that … ummm … she has a veritable plank in her eye … only to get blocked.
I recall she was involved in a sick making you tube video telling all the common folk to simply ‘not start a vlog’ during the lockdown, especially her air of condescension. I also recall her extremely mediocre vlog with Anabelle Crabbe. Apparently crap social media should be reserved for those who do … crap mainstream media.
If Sales doesn’t like the common folk – the great unwashed – commenting on her Tory pearls of wisdom – then she could try communicating via another medium.
Poor poor Leigh. If only she had her own TV show. Or could write a column. Or turn the comments off her social media. Imagine that… and she had a large six figure salary to go with it.
Vomit vomit vomit
BW
No. The Constitution states Congress starts wars.
You are factually wrong.
The bottom line ministerial standard is the ability to be totally corrupt without even really realizing it anymore.
Ministerial standards ? Dead buried and cremated over 20 years ago by……….
guytaur says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 5:04 pm
Sir Henry
Your claim fails the fact test. The Greens came to the party. As a result Labor passed the carbon price legislation
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
I am not getting into another time-wasting Greens-Labor history war about carbon pricing in 2010. I prefer to look to the future. In doing so, I appeal to all progressive parties to work together to achieve the best possible outcome. After that, continue working together to get even better outcomes.