As reported by The Australian, the normally stable Newspoll series has recorded a solid bump in favour of Labor, who now lead 53-47 on two-party preferred, out from 51-49 at the previous poll three weeks ago. The Coalition and Labor are both on 39% of the primary vote, which is a two-point drop for the Coalition and a two-point gain for Labor, with the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation steady on 3%.
Scott Morrison is down four points on approval to 51% and up four on disapproval to 45%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down two to 38% and up one to 46%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 51-33, narrowing from 53-33 last time. The Australian’s report also relates that approval of Morrison’s handling of the pandemic is down nine to 52% (UPDATE: disapproval is up nine to 45%), and that the government now records a net negative rating on handling of the vaccine rollout for the first time, with approval down 10 points to 40% and disapproval up 11 to 57%.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1506.
Steve777 @ #81 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 10:23 pm
Weekend slump. Wait for Monday/Tuesday numbers to see if it’s real.
House of Reps only. If he wanted to do it on that date, he’d have to hold the Senate election separately at an earlier date. I believe around late May 2022 is the latest feasible date you could hold a half-Senate election and have everything finalised before the current term ends on 30 June 2022. Modern PMs tend to prefer not to hold House and Senate elections separately, so realistically the latest the House election would be is concurrently with the Senate in May 2022.
Finally the public is seeing that the emperor has no clothes. And by extension the empress GladysB.
The whole edifice has crashed down around their ankles.
It’s worth making the point that this is a particularly good poll for the ALP when considered in the light of the received wisdom that this is a difficult time to be in opposition. Here, it’s interesting to contrast the judgement shown by Mr Albanese in handling the pandemic with that of the Liberal oppositions in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia.
To a greater or lesser extent the latter destroyed themselves by engaging in ill thought out sniping from the sidelines last year – egged on by resident idiots at the IPA and in the Murdoch press – at a time when the voters were rightly worried, indeed scared, were not in the mood for cheap politicking, and were looking for the psychological comfort which came from seeing leaders on both sides working together in the national interest.
Mr Albanese had the good sense to hold off on sustained criticism until the time came, as it has now, when voters had become less scared and therefore less starry eyed about the national leadership, and were getting thoroughly unimpressed with the vaccine rollout and the lockdowns associated with its failure. Now, instead of uttering criticisms which people don’t want to hear, Mr Albanese is echoing and channelling public opinion. And so those criticisms have a much greater chance of finding fertile ground.
He is also helped by the fact that so many complacent and overblown statements from the federal government have been filmed and can be used against. The line that the government only had two jobs and botched them both is short, sharp, and very well used in some of the deadly ads which have appeared on social media in the last few days. The line that it’s not a race, that Australia can afford to wait, will continue to be an albatross around Mr Morrison’s neck.
The huge risk for the government now is that the notion that the vaccine rollout has been stuffed up is likely to become an entrenched, unshakeable belief, which nobody even bothers to question. A bit like the view that is generally held, rightly or wrongly, about the pink batts rollout in the Rudd era. But unlike the pink batts saga, huge numbers of people are personally encountering direct evidence of the rollout’s failure; being unable to get vaccinated, spending hours on the phone to call centres trying to make appointments, getting stuck in traffic jams at vaccination centres, and being told by their doctors what a shambles it’s been. Unless things improve very quickly indeed, this perception is likely to linger even if everyone eventually gets vaccinated. It is striking that even the government’s supporters aren’t trying to argue that the rollout has been a success; at the most, they are offering excuses for its shortcomings.
Sorry, I hadn’t refreshed my feed when I answered. I see plenty of people already had covered it.
My mum has been a regular theatre-goer (her PhD is in renaissance drama). Every year she gets a subscription to the Sydney Theatre Company. Only, last year that got wiped out. There was still a chance of elimination kicking in by July last year (most of her bookings were for the 2nd half of the year) but then Gladys screwed things up and succeeded in dragging things out for months. And then screwed it up again in December.
Nevertheless, my mum rebooked for the 2nd half of this year – from late August onward.
Might have been just possible if Gladys had done the right thing and immediately locked down. But, its been fucked up again.
Fuck you, Gladys.
Pedant:
Very well put.
”
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 10:28 pm
Ven,
I thought it was May, 2022.
”
I thought I heard from Anthony Green (or was it someone else?) who said that an election can be constitutionally postponed up to 3 months from scheduled date and hence August 2022
My wording may not be exactly appropriate or precise
I am repeating myself but GladysB should release the modelling for the tighter restrictions that have been imposed, and show the road map for driving the virus down.
It is tracking at 96 average per day at present.
The public need to know what daily level is acceptable for restrictions to be eased.
The 30th July is only 11 days away.
She needs to show what the daily rate is estimated to be by then.
She owes this much to the people of NSW
Pedant,
I think the most important thing is he is focusing on things that are the Government’s responsibility.
How late can the next Federal election be held? Anthony Green’s on it:
https://antonygreen.com.au/when-can-the-next-federal-election-be-held/
Ven @ #108 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 8:45 pm
That would be a House election, not a Senate one.
Barney:
There were some reports (from unnamed sources, so take them with a large grain of salt) in the lead-up to the 2019 poll that Morrison was considering splitting them but was talked out of it.
At the time, I thought there was a decent chance he would get desperate enough to do it, as politically suicidal as it might seem.
(Though, with the benefit of hindsight – one wonders how things might have gone if they had held a half-Senate election in May ’19 and it delivered a similar upset.)
Griff
“If tiktok guy is correct, the last few days have followed the Burnet modelling reasonably well. Yet to see the effect of restrictions and the Reff is hovering around 1 as per the modelling.”
It still bothers me that the contact tracers aren’t catching up with people before they become infectious in the community. Yes, its hard, but are they throwing enough resources at it, and are they taking pre-emptive actions to isolate potential 2nd and 3rd ring contacts even before they can test them, like Victoria does?
Also, the tightening of restrictions yesterday is only going to start showing up late next week. And then of course they backed down badly thanks to the business lobby, last night. You not only have to control the numbers of people moving and mixing, but you also have to give out the message that its deadly serious and this is where Gladys is stuffing up badly.
Pedant:
But… but New Zealand!!
“The Govt has yet again extended its refugee contract on #Nauru with Qld construction firm Canstruct – a further $179,291,900 for 6 mths – bringing the total to $1,598,230,689.88.
There are only 108 refugees left on Nauru and they’re in the community.
Where are all these $$ going?”- Amanda Perrum
And in case you’re wondering why PMs don’t like holding separate half-Senate elections is because they want to maximise their party vote in the Senate. At a separate Senate election, voters are more likely to vote for the opposition or a third party because they are more likely motivated by keeping the government in check, registering a protest or just wanting to ensure better legislation, as the question of who they want running the country isn’t on the ballot, just who they want in the Senate.
A similar effect can be seen with by-elections too.
Does the PM have to visit the Governor General in person, in order to request an election?
Or can it be done virtually, or by mail?
Cud,
There are strong links between scientists who advise the Democrats in the US and Labor.
Cud Chewer @ #116 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 10:54 pm
It would be in person to get the best picfac. 😀
If the people of NSW are told in no ambiguous terms that restrictions need to be abided by in its entirety. Otherwise restrictions will continue for much longer.
Surely that is a huge incentive for the majority to take every action necessary to stop the virus in its tracks.
Hence why a roadmap has to be shown and explained to the public.
Flaneur,
Yes, single seat polling occurs.
Cud chewer,
Agreed, the contact tracing isn’t as contemporaneous as one would prefer. Thankfully the majority of the unlinked cases are in the 3 LGA’s that are subject to additional restrictions. The very restrictions that were watered down overnight.
Another Murdoch CC denier: Left defies facts in climate debate
Australia may soon be left with a power system almost completely driven by wind and solar, while the rest of the world is building coal, gas and nuclear power stations.
Chris Mitchell(The Oz)
Cud Chewer @ #118 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 10:54 pm
In the case of a conservative, I believe it’s by mutual consent. By non-conservatives it’s a general “do-I-have-to?”
A half-Senate election in May would be like a huge by-election. Then a separate House election 3 or 4 months later. Even the Coalition’s propaganda units couldn’t spin that.
Steve777 @ #125 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 8:59 pm
I think one interesting factor in having a separate half Senate election is that it would put the focus on the candidates in way that they usually completely avoid.
”
Cud Chewersays:
Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 10:54 pm
Does the PM have to visit the Governor General in person, in order to request an election?
Or can it be done virtually, or by mail?
”
Don’t have to personally see GG to dissolve the parliament. He / She can send a letter by courier, call by phone (I don’t about email). In person is only for dramatic effect.
Police to target Bondi and Manly…from tomorrow.
After the weekend is over.
Meanwhile in Fairfield…are there still helicopters flying overhead during the night and sniffer dogs?
Remind me again how we are all in this together?
Barney in Tanjung Bunga at 10:47 pm
“Pedant,
I think the most important thing is he is focusing on things that are the Government’s responsibility.”
Indeed. Recent events are also showing how evanescent public support can be. After the last election Mr Morrison was seen as having pulled off a miracle. But that only lasted until the bushfires. He got a bounce again with Covid last year, but the echo of that has faded substantially too.
I’ve long held the view that people see in leaders what they want to see, especially in times of crisis. Last year was good for leaders, because people were frightened, and really wanted to believe that the leaders knew what they were doing. But that’s wearing off again. In fact, the federal government’s performance, judged objectively, has been pretty shambolic on most fronts going right back to 2018. It’s becoming increasingly obvious that Mr Morrison doesn’t think things through, has bungled not just the vaccine rollout but the public communication surrounding it, and seems uninterested in learning from his mistakes.
”
steve davissays:
Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 10:58 pm
Another Murdoch CC denier: Left defies facts in climate debate
Australia may soon be left with a power system almost completely driven by wind and solar, while the rest of the world is building coal, gas and nuclear power stations.
Chris Mitchell(The Oz)
”
Is it in a recent article? If so, they are really becoming more stupid by day.
Does the GG offer the Prime Minster a cup of tea/coffee and a biscuit when they turn up?
Ven:
I believe Malcolm Fraser tried to do that in 1983 to ambush the ALP, but was forced to wait until he could get an official appointment.
Very good numbers for Labor. Their PV has improved and the PV of the Liberals has slumped. I wonder what the state-wise distributions are. If this heralds a return to a more balanced split in QLD the LNP will be in all kinds of trouble come the election.
IF this government becomes toxic and terminal (not necessarily saying it will) and Morrison becomes a dead PM walking, I sincerely hope he holds off until April/May next year, just because I would like that toxicity to drag down the support of the state Liberals at the March 2022 SA election and help restrict them to one term.
”
Asha Leusays:
Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 11:13 pm
Ven:
I believe Malcolm Fraser tried to do that in 1983 to ambush the ALP, but was forced to wait until he could get an official appointment.
”
I am almost certain in person request to GG is not a constitutional requirement.
Probably William Bowe, Anthony Green can clarify it.
Re Ven @11:12
Is it in a recent article? If so, they are really becoming more stupid by day.
Today:
https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiFqNWQ2uzxAhWHvpQKHZyvBA8QFjAEegQIAxAD&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fbusiness%2Fmedia%2Faustralia-leads-way-on-climate-but-left-media-ignores-sins-of-china-and-us-hypocrisy%2Fnews-story%2Fd17e9ba3212d3f83ba93b2ea245a35cd&usg=AOvVaw1ofVKLFw8I7aHRRO26IIJF
Ven:
Much of the Governor-General’s powers are based on precedent and convention and are open to broad interpretation. It may well depend on the whims of the Governor-General of the day.
It may well depend on the whims of the Governor-General of the day.
No doubt the GG’s right-wing credentials were assessed before he was appointed. His ‘whims’ will align with Morrison’s wishes.
Often wondered with PPM if a small percentage of people look at all politicians rather than the leaders if the Q doesn’t name the two.
If you don’t know much about the opposition leader, might name PM even if you would never vote for his party.
The figures sometimes suggest there is some confusion with Party v PPM.
”
Asha Leusays:
Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 11:21 pm
Ven:
Much of the Governor-General’s powers are based on precedent and convention and are open to broad interpretation. It may well depend on the whims of the Governor-General of the day.
”
Did you notice the recent swearing in cermony of Nats as Ministers including Joyce. The PM was present by video link for the cermony.
Or PM present via video link for parliamentary sittings
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/07/18/newspoll-53-47-to-labor-7/comment-page-3/#comment-3656572
My understanding of the happenings of 1983 are that Fraser did not satisfy Sir Ninian Stephen that a DD was necessary and went to get more evidence.
Precedent says the Prime Minister visits the G-G with media camped at the gate to film him.
Lots of precedents have gone by the board in last year and a half. Like ministers sworn in on video link. So I guess anything is possible. Abbott resigned by fax.
And on precedents there hasn’t been a half senate election since 1970 so I doubt we will be going there.
The PM should just text the GG
“Hey man u awake?”
“Yeah sup?”
“Need favour”
“What is it”
“Need election. Thinking 28 Aug. Can u do that?”
…
…
…
“K no prob. Will sign docs tmrw (thumbs up emoji)”
“Cool thx”
Margin of error on this poll (sample size 1506) is 2.6%.
Tom:
You may well be correct.
True Steve 777, but it’s also now the narrative…
There’s an insider’s account of the goings on surrounding the 1983 double dissolution in this book, which is mainly about the QANTAS A380 which had an engine blow up coming out of Singapore: the author, pilot Richard de Crespigny, in his former life as a RAAF officer, was working in Government House at the time as an ADC to the GG. https://www.amazon.com.au/QF32-author-Life-Lessons-Cockpit/dp/1742611176/ref=asc_df_1742611176/?
JM @10.03
” he cannot wait much longer either, certainly not until May, maybe not even late this year.”
Dudley Morrison has achieved far more during his political career than he, Dudley ever expected.
Dudley took a gamble, was mischievously placed in the position to bushranger the seat of Cook and get himself placed in Canberra.
Dudley soon learned to remain buzzing around the liberal dunny door, eventually the door opened, enabling Dudley to sit on the throne.
No sooner had he fell in at the election, Dudley had calculated the financial benefits of the PMship and the minimum time needed to secure these benefits.
And bugger, first the bushfires, than the bloody Covid, would have been uttered with rising regularity.
The point where it was all too much had arrived before this disastrous polling, with Dudley already taken to making himself invisible to the public and his peers.
Not much remaining to do now says Dudley.
The disquiet will be fast moving, his denial grossly insincere, and his humble resignation delivered with a heartfelt yet selfless statement.
Got a sock full of folding stuff, move to the waterfront, lots of fish in the sea waiting for a new horizons to plunder.
The ultimate puffer fish politician with all the depth of a drought.
D&M
Not on that evidence, notice the times and dates