Preselection latest

As the Victorian Liberals get candidates in place for target Labor seats, a new vacancy opens in a marginal of their own.

Recent developments relevant to the looming federal election, mostly involving the Liberals in Victoria:

• House of Representatives Speaker Tony Smith announced this week he would retire from politics at the election, after holding the seat of Casey on Melbourne’s eastern fringe since 2001. Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports “leading contenders” for the Liberal preselection are David Lau, a manager with medical supplies company Ebos Group, and Aaron Violi, a manager with a company that provides online ordering services to restaurants. Both have form as political staffers, Lau with Senator Sarah Henderson and Violi with Senator James Patterson. The “controversial comments on Facebook related to abortion” that caused Lau to quit his job with Henderson appear not to have done him any harm with the party membership. Smith retained Casey by a margin of 4.6% in 2019, which has not changed with the redistribution.

• The Victorian Liberals have preselected former Geelong mayor Stephanie Asher for Corangamite, where Labor’s Libby Coker unseated Sarah Henderson in 2019, and lawyer and one-time Survivor contestant Sharn Coombes for Dunkley in Melbourne’s south-east, which Labor gained after a favourable redistribution in 2019. Brodie Cowburn of Bayside News reports other candidates for Dunkley included Chris Crewther, who held the seat for the Liberals from 2016 until his defeat in 2019, and Donna Hope, who as Donna Bauer held the marginal local state seat of Carrum for a term from 2010 to 2014.

• Queensland’s Liberal National party has preselected Colin Boyce, who has held the state seat of Callide since 2017, as its new candidate for the central Queensland seat of Flynn, held for the party on a margin of 8.7% and to be vacated at the election with the retirement of Ken O’Dowd. Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports Boyce “convincingly” won a local party ballot over Mitchell Brownlie, Ron English and Tracie Newitt.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,299 comments on “Preselection latest”

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  1. Yeah Irrational ‘Leftist’ I have decided to keep referring to your former handle. it suits you so much better. What a rebel…lol.

  2. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 9:18 pm

    Lars and nath are great movie buffs, I’m sure they will love this sequel…
    ________
    You’ve wounded me mortally. How will I recover? I’m hoping Albo wins, so not really sure of your point.

  3. someone needs to do a venn diagram of enemies on PB. Sometimes I forget who hates who.

    I think you’d have an easier time diagramming relations in the Balkans.

  4. sprocket_ @ #1626 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 7:38 pm

    This is quite a Trojan effort by ‘Recon’ and Lvt – they have been posting non stop since 7am this morning – trolling and throwing shade on the ALP whilst rooting for the Liberals.

    Nothing to do with the LiberalLockdowns and Newspoll about to drop…

    Yes, they’ve obviously decided on a flood the zone strategy.


  5. yabbasays:
    Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 7:42 pm
    Re construction.

    As part of work involved in building an addition to my house, I currently have about 30% of my roof missing, covered by a tarp which has been partially shredded by the very strong winds over the past three days. The roofers were meant to be coming to retile the missing section of roof and tile the new extension tomorrow morning. Do I qualify as an emergency or safety matter?

    If we have a storm, I run the real risk of sustaining extensive water damage. Well?

    Yes is answer from what I heard as an explanation from NSW Premier.
    Infact she mentioned an example like yours as Emergency work even in the 3 LSAs

  6. Not me. I don’t hate. For example, years and years ago, when my girlfriend, who was suspicious of me cheating asked ‘do you love me?’ I replied, ‘baby, I love everyone’. *

    Apologies to Dave Chappelle.

  7. Dear C@t. Earlier in the day after stalking allegations were directed at me I thought we decided not to address posts at each other. Please don’t mention me, or direct anything at me, and I will do the same. Thank you.

  8. davidwh

    Everyone hates Morrison. Can we have the Venn diagram in the shape of the Covid virus?

    Except michael. And possibly Bruce(cephalous)

  9. PM marked down as jab frustration builds
    The federal Coalition has slumped to its lowest electoral position this term, with voters losing confidence in Scott Morrison’s management of the pandemic, according to Newspoll.

  10. 53-47 came out of the blue. Maybe the punters are finally seeing through Morrisons and Gladys bullshit at last.

  11. NOW!!!!
    Now the ALP has to start pressing it’s advantage. Albo come out of hiding. Make statements, propose expensive rescue plans AND a royal commission into the vaccine rollout.

    For the love of god ALP, don’t let this moment slip you by.

  12. Dr Bonham…

    #Newspoll major party primaries 39-39 Greens 10 ON 3 others 9

    Morrison net +6 (51-45)
    Albanese -8 (38-46)
    Better PM (skews to incumbents) Morrison leads 51-33

  13. Ohh. Wow!

    I was going to go for 50 / 50, assuming voters had no idea of who to blame.

    Cameron your 52/48 looked overly optimistic to me, but you were spot on within MOE.

  14. Q: Has anyone here actually created a game of their own?
    A: Probably not.

    Although I know someone who has.

    Q: Did anyone play Pong when it was released in Australia in the 70s? And then kept playing games for the next 46 years?
    A: That would be me.

    Q: Will anyone be creating a game this year?
    A: I’m going to give it my best shot.

    Q: Does anyone else still have copies of the floppy disc games they used to play?
    A: Me again.

    Q: Does anyone else have a photo of their 2 year old playing ‘Chips Challenge’ and ‘Commander Keen’?
    A: Me. 🙂

  15. I know it’s only a beauty contest but why on God’s green earth would 39% give Labor their first preference then ten seconds later, 12% of them say Morrison is their preferred leader. It works just as stupidly in reverse.

    I wonder if our host has a theory because it has always baffled me. As far back as when Denis Shanahan used to wet himself fortnightly with similar figures with Howard v Rudd. We all know how that turned out.

  16. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 9:35 pm

    Dr Bonham…

    #Newspoll major party primaries 39-39 Greens 10 ON 3 others 9

    Morrison net +6 (51-45)
    Albanese -8 (38-46)
    Better PM (skews to incumbents) Morrison leads 51-33
    _________________
    Those aren’t the figures Ghost has.

  17. Simon Benson taking time off from squiring Bridget McKenzie to parrot the RUpert/PMO line…

    ‘PM must regain initiative as brutal ALP tactics take toll
    Scott Morrison is the target of a co-ordinated and unbridled political campaign directed by the state labor premiers and the federal opposition. And it’s working.

  18. Where’s Wayne?

    “Just came back from my Liberal branch meeting. Morrison is on track to win in a landslide and will eventually become the longest serving PM. Internal polling has Coalition at 60-40”

    Will that do?

  19. “Cameron your 52/48 looked overly optimistic to me, but you were spot on within MOE.”

    Is it possible that the MOE manifested itself in the last couple of polls? With the last several months that Morrison has inflicted upon himself, I felt it was artificially close. I wonder what will happen when the Brittany Higgins things plays out. There is no upside for Morrison here because if it is quashed, women will be enraged and if it goes ahead, the LNP will, yet again, be dragged through the mud.

  20. Surprise, surprise.

    A year ago the federal ALP asked the SA branch to or select a candidate for Boothby as a matter of urgency. The Liberal member announced she was retiring. She won by whisker last time. The polls have been looking increasingly promising for Labor to take the seat for the first time in 70 years.

    Nothing happened. Under the Right – Left junta which runs the ALP in SA, the seat was promised to the Left but they don’t have anyone suitable it seems. Meanwhile, the Libs have chosen a good woman who is already up and running.

    In the Sunday Mail today Mark Butler says Labor will be preselecting a candidate in a matter of weeks.

    Now ain’t that just something!

  21. Griff @ #1727 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 9:39 pm

    C@tmomma,

    You have a strong preference for the first person in your last post. Are you a solipsist? 🙂

    Moi? 🙂

    No, it was my son who wrote a Word based, Turn based game when he was about 22. Then taught himself coding and web design and put it up on the internet, where it became quite popular. Though I guess I did give birth to him, so maybe you’re right. 🙂

  22. Despite the lessons of the last election wrt to the inability of this poll to truly reflect where our voting intention is at, I feel weirdly relieved that this 53/47.
    It feels like a hint that the country has potential to wake up to the gas-lighting and chicanery of the current gov.
    I agree the opposition should go harder on Morrison now.


  23. sprocket_says: Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 9:41 pm Simon Benson taking time off from squiring Bridget McKenzie to parrot the RUpert/PMO line… ‘PM must regain initiative as brutal ALP tactics take toll Scott Morrison is the target of a co-ordinated and unbridled political campaign directed by the state labor premiers and the federal opposition. And it’s working.

    Benson is upset that State Labor premiers and Federal opposition are campaigning against Morrison. What should they do in Benson’s opinion? Should they be clapping and praising at whatever Morrison says and does? Should they keep quiet when Morrison criticises them? Does Benson believe only LNP can campaign against Labor and not vice versa? Did the writings and analysis of Murdoch hacks became do childish and stupid? Did Benson expect Labor to clap when Joyce talks about restaurant menus and cost of items in the menus with regards to zero net emissions by 2050?

  24. Simon Katich @ #2240 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 9:09 pm

    Smarty pants Clancy K also decided to do a clock and got the hour hand too. I suspected she copied my code tho.

    As one gains experience, one may learn that the female of the species is far more astute than one is willing to acknowledge. When one grows up, one surrenders to the obvious.

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