Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

A trend of declining approval for Scott Morrison and the government’s management of COVID-19 starts to bite on voting intention, according to the latest Newspoll.

As reported by The Australian, the normally stable Newspoll series has recorded a solid bump in favour of Labor, who now lead 53-47 on two-party preferred, out from 51-49 at the previous poll three weeks ago. The Coalition and Labor are both on 39% of the primary vote, which is a two-point drop for the Coalition and a two-point gain for Labor, with the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation steady on 3%.

Scott Morrison is down four points on approval to 51% and up four on disapproval to 45%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down two to 38% and up one to 46%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 51-33, narrowing from 53-33 last time. The Australian’s report also relates that approval of Morrison’s handling of the pandemic is down nine to 52% (UPDATE: disapproval is up nine to 45%), and that the government now records a net negative rating on handling of the vaccine rollout for the first time, with approval down 10 points to 40% and disapproval up 11 to 57%.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1506.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,599 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 32
1 2 32
  1. From the previous thread:

    ‘sprocket_ (Block)
    Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 9:41 pm
    Comment #1732
    Simon Benson taking time off from squiring Bridget McKenzie to parrot the Rupert/PMO line…

    ‘PM must regain initiative as brutal ALP tactics take toll
    Scott Morrison is the target of a co-ordinated and unbridled political campaign directed by the state labor premiers and the federal opposition. And it’s working.’

    Yep, politics. Who’da thunk it? 🙂

  2. Toorak Toff

    Surprise, surprise.

    A year ago the federal ALP asked the SA branch to or select a candidate for Boothby as a matter of urgency. The Liberal member announced she was retiring. She won by whisker last time. The polls have been looking increasingly promising for Labor to take the seat for the first time in 70 years.

    Nothing happened. Under the Right – Left junta which runs the ALP in SA, the seat was promised to the Left but they don’t have anyone suitable it seems. Meanwhile, the Libs have chosen a good woman who is already up and running.

    In the Sunday Mail today Mark Butler says Labor will be preselecting a candidate in a matter of weeks.

    Now ain’t that just something!

    Finally! There has been exponentially higher energy spent on the Right wing intra-factional power struggle for the Spence preselection than this.

    That’s the problem with the SA ALP Branch. The Right are full of self-servers and the Left are useless and atrophied.

  3. OL numbers are always low. Many opposition leaders have won with half the approval rating of the Premier. It’s largely just a factor of exposure.

    Preferred leader and approval ratings are some of the most useless statics in opinion polling. All they do is give the press gallery something to fill column inches with.

  4. All things considered – pretty good result for the Libs.

    Post covid – it will be a very close election. Hopefully Labor doesn’t roll Albo for his negative approval ratings.

  5. AngoraFish says:
    Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 9:51 pm

    OL numbers are always low. Many opposition leaders have won with half the approval rating of the Premier. It’s largely just a factor of exposure.
    ________
    Cheers. He seems so likeable to me, trying to make sense of it.

  6. The punters are seemingly recognising this for the shit show it is.

    Let’s hope their memories are longer than after the bushfires.

    The Australian’s report also relates that approval of Morrison’s handling of the pandemic is down nine to 52%; that the government now records a net negative rating on handling of the vaccine rollout for the first time, with approval down 10 points to 40% and disapproval up 11 to 57%.

  7. But on the positive side. This poll is really great news. My optimism for a Labor win has grown a bit but Labor can’t just sit on this. It does show a definite opening in Morrison’s armour and a lot of his goodwill may be fading fast.

    More numbers like this please.

  8. “Morrison net +6 (51-45)
    Albanese -8 (38-46)
    Better PM (skews to incumbents) Morrison leads 51-33
    _________________
    Those aren’t the figures Ghost has.”

    Those are exactly the figures Ghost has.

    GhostWhoVotes
    @GhostWhoVotes

    17m
    #Newspoll Morrison: Approve 51 (-4) Disapprove 45 (+4) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes
    @GhostWhoVotes

    17m
    #Newspoll Albanese: Approve 38 (-2) Disapprove 46 (+1) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes
    @GhostWhoVotes

    17m
    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Morrison 51 (-2) Albanese 33 (0) #auspol

  9. Q. Who has been ALbo’s biggest supporter here
    A. Me.

    Q. Who argued Shorten should be replaced by Albo back in 2018
    A. Me again.

  10. Its about what was expected because Morrison has been sinking and it was only time before it showed up in the polling and it could get worst if the Liberals don’t get their act together but it could be too late for Morrison.

  11. Recon:

    Albo’s been far more comfortable going on the attack as of late. He could be suffering a little bit of blowback from being perceived as “politicizing” the pandemic.

  12. Easy to blame Labor but Morrison needs to act like a leader, take responsibility for mistakes and stop spinning. Spinning doesn’t work when lives are at threat and people receive confusing messaging.

  13. sprocket_ @ #27 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 9:55 pm

    Dutton and Frydo must be sharpening the knives – how much more can they take?

    It will be the kinder, gentler Frydenburg that gets the nod I reckon. 😉

    Gosh, I can’t remember who said it the other day but whoever it was that said governments usually get one more term than they should was spot on.

  14. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 9:57 pm

    nath,
    I was posting for the numerate readers, not the dyscalculia
    ____
    Maths may not be my strong point, but you had Morrison +6 on ‘net’, which I assumed was net satisfaction, not PPM. Your presentation was poor.

  15. I might add that I’m all for this more ruthless Albo.

    Certainly there is more wind in his sails now. I think that the mood has shifted away from the next election being a formality to one where the Government (who do not have a real margin to sandbag) is actually vulnerable. You tend to have a bit more confidence and conviction in your words and actions when you don’t just feel like you’re there as the fall guy.

  16. William will correct if wrong, but this 47 2PP is the low point this term for LNP

    Which is trend wise where you don’t want to be within 9 months of an election due


  17. Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 9:52 pm

    All things considered – pretty good result for the Libs.

    Post covid – it will be a very close election. Hopefully Labor doesn’t roll Albo for his negative approval ratings.

    Lars morrison has stuff up everything he has touched, what makes you think past performance will not reflect future performance.

  18. You don’t survive coming from the Left of the NSW ALP and end up the Leader of the FPLP, without having some political smarts.

  19. Wat Tyler says:
    Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 10:00 pm
    I might add that I’m all for this more ruthless Albo.
    Certainly there is more wind in his sails now. I think that the mood has shifted away from the next election being a formality to one where the Government (who do not have a real margin to sandbag) is actually vulnerable. You tend to have a bit more confidence and conviction in your words and actions when you don’t just feel like you’re there as the fall guy.
    __________________________________
    Yes I think fair comment.

  20. This is delicious. Scrotto can’t go to an election in the current circumstances. But that endlessly rising ALP primary means he cannot wait much longer either, certainly not until May, maybe not even late this year.

  21. C@tmommasays:
    Gosh, I can’t remember who said it the other day but whoever it was that said governments usually get one more term than they should was spot on.

    It was Yours Truly C@tmommasays

  22. C@t if he can’t then you are going to be purring happily around May next year. Personally no I don’t think he can.

Comments Page 1 of 32
1 2 32

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *