Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

A trend of declining approval for Scott Morrison and the government’s management of COVID-19 starts to bite on voting intention, according to the latest Newspoll.

As reported by The Australian, the normally stable Newspoll series has recorded a solid bump in favour of Labor, who now lead 53-47 on two-party preferred, out from 51-49 at the previous poll three weeks ago. The Coalition and Labor are both on 39% of the primary vote, which is a two-point drop for the Coalition and a two-point gain for Labor, with the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation steady on 3%.

Scott Morrison is down four points on approval to 51% and up four on disapproval to 45%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down two to 38% and up one to 46%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 51-33, narrowing from 53-33 last time. The Australian’s report also relates that approval of Morrison’s handling of the pandemic is down nine to 52% (UPDATE: disapproval is up nine to 45%), and that the government now records a net negative rating on handling of the vaccine rollout for the first time, with approval down 10 points to 40% and disapproval up 11 to 57%.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1506.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,599 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. National cabinet is now ‘a dog’s breakfast’: Abbott
    Tony Abbott says there is no certainty ‘about who’s in charge’ of the pandemic and Scott Morrison’s national cabinet is making it worse.

    This tosser would be even worse than Smoko.

  2. frednk says:
    Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 10:02 pm

    Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 9:52 pm

    All things considered – pretty good result for the Libs.

    Post covid – it will be a very close election. Hopefully Labor doesn’t roll Albo for his negative approval ratings.

    Lars morrison has stuff up everything he has touched, what makes you think past performance will not reflect future performance.
    _______________________________
    I’ve always said the next election would be very close. I should think ScoMo would be happy it is only 53-47.
    Obv a good result for the ALP but the factors driving this result won’t be there in 6 months.

    My concern is with the net negative for Albo – the “hard heads” in the ALP don’t decide to roll him. That’s what they should have done with Littlefinger last time – its not what they should do this time.

  3. dwh,
    My honest prediction is Morrison will attempt to brazen his way through to the election and stick with the game plan he formulated with Lynton Crosby when he went to the UK recently and hope all the cards fall into place. It’s not leadership it’s crisis management and ignoring reality in order to stick to his game plan.


  4. sprocket_says: Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 9:41 pm Simon Benson taking time off from squiring Bridget McKenzie to parrot the RUpert/PMO line… ‘PM must regain initiative as brutal ALP tactics take toll Scott Morrison is the target of a co-ordinated and unbridled political campaign directed by the state labor premiers and the federal opposition. And it’s working.

    Benson is upset that State Labor premiers and Federal opposition are campaigning against Morrison. What should they do in Benson’s opinion? Should they be clapping and praising at whatever Morrison says and does? Should they keep quiet when Morrison criticises them? Does Benson believe only LNP can campaign against Labor and not vice versa? Did the writings and analysis of Murdoch hacks became do childish and stupid? Did Benson expect Labor to clap when Joyce talks about restaurant menus and cost of items in the menus with regards to zero net emissions by 2050?

  5. Sceptic,
    #2 son’s girlfriend lives in England. She’s still very anxious about contracting Covid. Sceptical about Boris’ ‘Freedom Day’ and not wanting to go out and be ‘free’.

  6. Sprocket_

    I was browsing the data for BludgerTrack, and this appears to be the nadir to date for the 2pp in this term. Morrison was rated worse post bushfires however.

    The breakdowns show positive trends for Labor in WA and Queensland to a lesser extent, although more important perhaps.

    The other interesting trend to keep an eye on is the shift in support to Labor in the 100k to 150k bracket. Although, the 50k-99k bracket is bouncy.

  7. One of Morrison’s skills is being able to obfuscate and distract until the news cycle has moved onto the next shiny thing. Unfortunately for Scotty, the COVID cycle does not let up. I don’t think the next few weeks will provide any respite.
    I’d guess the Liberal strategy now will be focused around a rally post-vaccination. In that context, I expect that Morrison will be all-in on elimination.

  8. steve davis says:
    Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 10:11 pm
    Malcolm
    Murdoch will do whats necessary to get the Libs home under any circumstances.
    ___________________________
    Now would be an excellent time for Albo to bend the knee to the Murdochs.

    After all every successful Labor leader (including Rudd) has paid homage.

  9. steve davis says:
    Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 10:11 pm

    Malcolm
    Murdoch will do whats necessary to get the Libs home under any circumstances.
    __________
    You know I used to think such statements were a little OTT. But after watching the BBC documentary on the Murdoch’s recently I think that’s probably very true.

    Murdoch’s reasons for supporting Brexit for example. I wonder if any one can guess at them?

  10. Labor 53-47 – good to see.

    It’s a tribute to the Coalition’s propaganda units a.k.a the Australian mainstream media that it’s not 60-40, given the blithering incompetence and gross negligence in the Morrison Government’s efforts to deal with the pandemic, not to mention the lies they’ve told attempting to cover their failings.

  11. Work To Rule @ #63 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 10:13 pm

    One of Morrison’s skills is being able to obfuscate and distract until the news cycle has moved onto the next shiny thing. Unfortunately for Scotty, the COVID cycle does not let up. I don’t think the next few weeks will provide any respite.
    I’d guess the Liberal strategy now will be focused around a rally post-vaccination. In that context, I expect that Morrison will be all-in on elimination.

    Yes, he’s already changed his tune to reflect that. He absolutely supported and pushed for the lockdown, don’cha know? 😆

  12. Well there goes any chance of an early election.

    I would love to see the State by State breakdown. It can’t just be Sydney. Plenty of people in Melbourne must have been annoyed when Morrison knocked back financial assistance to them in lockdown 1 and gave it to Sydney a few weeks later.

    I thought when Andrews called Morrison the “PM for NSW” it was on the money.

  13. Work to rule
    “ One of Morrison’s skills is being able to obfuscate and distract until the news cycle has moved onto the next shiny thing.”

    Yes I’m sure Morrison will soon be telling us it was his plan to get everyone Pfizer all along.

  14. Griff
    ALP picking up support among higher income earners is why Higgins is a seat to watch at under 4%.

    Katie Allen would be nervous.

  15. Work To Rule @ #64 Sunday, July 18th, 2021 – 8:13 pm

    One of Morrison’s skills is being able to obfuscate and distract until the news cycle has moved onto the next shiny thing. Unfortunately for Scotty, the COVID cycle does not let up. I don’t think the next few weeks will provide any respite.
    I’d guess the Liberal strategy now will be focused around a rally post-vaccination. In that context, I expect that Morrison will be all-in on elimination.

    Post vaccination could be after the next election when you consider the major shortfall in AZ production.

  16. We have to remember that the Coalition campaign like hell. And the election isn’t won until Antony Green calls it. 🙂

  17. “So no improvement for Sydney.Gonna be a long road ahead.”

    As long as the road goes through every Harvey Norman store, as it currently does, it could go around the world twice. And the pictures from Sydney’s sparkling beaches were a treat today. Gladys furiously fining and threatening to jail every brown person in Cabramatta and Bankstown who steps out of line while the beautiful, bronzed Aussies of Bondi and Manly can do what they like because they look better with their masks off.

  18. ”ticktokguy says 109 new cases tomorrow.”

    That’s not good. At least we seem to be holding the line, not spinning out of control as I feared might happen. Hopefully we see the numbers coming down in the coming week.

    Seven-day moving average is 96.1, slightly down on yesterday’s 96.6.

  19. Courtesy of the Shovel:
    A couple who has been separated from their family in Australia since 2019 has been told to show a little more hatred towards minority groups if they want to be considered for entry into the country.

    “We accept that your mother is sick and you may not get to see her again before she dies. But we regret to inform you that your application to enter the country of your citizenship has been denied at this time. Have you considered a regular racist column in a right wing tabloid?”
    The response said the family could reapply, and gave tips for future applications. “At this time we are prioritising non-Australian, attention-seeking bigots, but you are able to reapply at any time. Previous successful applicants have found that using words associated with the Holocaust, or spreading anti-sematic conspiracy theories have added to their case. Islamophobia, fat-shaming and comparing migrants to cockroaches is also looked upon favourably”.

    A spokesperson from Australian Border Force defended the decision to deny the family entry. “We understand that being separated from a dying family member can be difficult. But it’s not as if they have a reality show for a racist TV network to record. Some perspective here is required

  20. I’m concerned about Scomo’s clear intention to reopen our international borders prematurely. If you go back to April last year, what you find is Scomo setting up the framework to prematurely ease the original lockdown. The core of that was “the app”. It was used as an excuse and a distraction. A thing he could point to and go “see, this will make you all safe” so that he could do the thing he always intended to do regardless.

    You should expect exactly the same kind of behaviour regarding vaccination and premature weakening of the international border.

    The only real question is election timing. Is Scomo going to get the election in a little earlier so he can avoid telling us exactly how and when he will prematurely weaken quarantine?

    Or is he now forced to put the election off till the first half of next year? If so, will he dare to prematurely weaken quarantine before the election? I would not put it past him to do so. However, he’s going to need some fairly compliant “experts” to say just what he wants and to mislead the media.

    Interesting times…

    What do I think? I think there’s going to be a number of things that will conspire to make it harder for him to prematurely weaken quarantine. Not the least of which is the inevitable fallout form the UK experiment. Plus we’ll eventually catch on that we need boosters. Plus we’ll have more overseas data/experience with which to fine tune models and be able to understand what is actually involved in herd immunity.


  21. JMsays:
    Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 10:03 pm
    This is delicious. Scrotto can’t go to an election in the current circumstances. But that endlessly rising ALP primary means he cannot wait much longer either, certainly not until May, maybe not even late this year.

    Isn’t it true that Morrison can wait until or as late as middle of August 2022 to go for an election if he wants to?

  22. An interesting question is whether Australia has found it’s tipping point wrt the Populist Nativist Authoritarian Christian Demagogue style of politics?

  23. If tiktok guy is correct, the last few days have followed the Burnet modelling reasonably well. Yet to see the effect of restrictions and the Reff is hovering around 1 as per the modelling.

  24. Cud,
    The UK and America will tell Morrison the answer to your question. And it’s not looking positive.

    Plus, I’m sure Morrison planned to go to the election in November because he’s afraid what Global Heating and Climate Change have in store for us this Summer.

  25. I remember the Murdoch press turning against Abbott in 2015 only to barrack hard for Turnbull. A few years later, they turned on Turnbull before throwing their support behind Morrison. The same cycle might be playing out at the moment.

    Labor should be feeling good about the way things are trending. They absolutely should not get complacent. It ain’t over until it’s over

  26. “Ven,
    I thought it was May, 2022.”

    There is always a bit of wriggle room for holding a poll after the three years are up. I don’t pretend to know the reasons why but they are there in the constitution somewhere. I don’t believe anyone has really tried it on because it looks suicidal and cynical to the electorate at the same time. That said, Morrison seems just the type to try it on.

  27. Mexicanbeemer,

    The shifting sands of electoral support must play with political party campaign operatives’ minds. To the extent of commissioning single seat polling at times!

    Edit: removal of an extra word

  28. I believe the House of Reps isn’t due until August, but a half-Senate election is due on May. So for all intents and purposes, it’s May.

  29. C@t

    We can already tell from the UK that even with vaccines, the death toll that will result from weakening the international border will be quite painful. As I said earlier today, the current UK death toll is equivalent to 8,000 cases per year in Australia. And its only going to get worse.

    Given that the regular flu kills 800 to 1,800 people per year, are people going to accept ten times that?

    Ya reckon he’s a bit scared of bushfires? Interesting take. My theory was he wanted to get the election over and done with so he could then do the dirty in reopening borders – whilst not having to explain what he intended to do before the election.

    Its also time to ask the question, would Albo do anything different? Would he adopt a more cautious position and is he more likely to ignore the vested interests? Is Albo, in fact cognisant of the science? Has Albo figured out that its not really in Australia’s best interest to allow wholesale return to normal (tourism and all that)? I think recently he’s been awakening to this, but I’d love to know who he gets his scientific advice from.


  30. Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 9:52 pm

    All things considered – pretty good result for the Libs.

    Post covid – it will be a very close election. Hopefully Labor doesn’t roll Albo for his negative approval ratings.

    Lars morrison has stuff up everything he has touched, what makes you think past performance will not reflect future performance.
    _______________________________
    I’ve always said the next election would be very close. I should think ScoMo would be happy it is only 53-47.
    Obv a good result for the ALP but the factors driving this result won’t be there in 6 months.

    My concern is with the net negative for Albo – the “hard heads” in the ALP don’t decide to roll him. That’s what they should have done with Littlefinger last time – its not what they should do this time.

    Oppositions win when they stat looking like the government and governments lose when they start looking like the opposition.

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