Roy Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor

Another pollster with another tight voting intention result, plus preselection latest from federal seats in Perth.

Roy Morgan has produced its second federal poll in a fortnight, and will hopefully make a regular habit of this going forward. The poll credits Labor with a bare lead of 50.5-49.5 (Morgan’s rounding being done to increments of half a percentage point), down from 51-49 last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up 1.5% to 41.5%, Labor is down half a point to 34.5%, the Greens are up half a point to 12% and One Nation is up half a point to 3.5%. State two-party breakdowns have the Coalition leading 51-49 in New South Wales, 56-44 in Queensland and 52-48 in Western Australia, but with Labor leading 55-45 in Victoria, 52-48 in South Australia and 57-43 in Tasmania.

The poll was conducted by telephone and online surveys over the previous two weekends from a sample of 2782. Since we will presumably be hearing more from Morgan in future, it’s worth pointing out that the company is not a member of the Australian Polling Council, and thus does not observe the standards of transparency demanded of its code of conduct.

Other news:

• Peter Law of The West Australian reports that Labor’s candidate for the key Perth seat of Swan will be Zaneta Mascarenhas, an engineer who runs an energy management consultancy. This comes after the state party’s Left-dominated administration committee blocked the nomination of the only other contender, former South Perth councillor Fiona Reid, on the grounds she had run as an independent candidate at the 2017 state election, to the displeasure of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. Mascarenhas is aligned with the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers’ Union. The West’s report also relates that Tania Lawrence, a manager at Woodside who ran unsuccessfully for Labor in Darling Range at a state by-election in 2018, is the party’s only nominee in the seat of Hasluck.

• Pollster John Utting has told The West Australian that his recent polling leads him to expect that Labor will win Swan and possibly Pearce. He also believes that Labor will “probably” win the election off the back of wins in Chisholm, Boothby, Longman and potentially Leichhardt, Braddon and Bass, although they could potentially lose Eden-Monaro and Macquarie. Utting has polled extensively for Labor and provided polling for The West Australian five months out from the March state election that had the measure of the eventual result.

• Roxanne Fitzgerald of the ABC reports a complaint has been lodged with the Human Rights Commission accusing the Australian Electoral Commission of discrimination against indigenous voters, having failed to provide sufficient polling facilities to remote communities and directly enrol people who do not receive mail at a residential address. The complainants are Matthew Ryan, mayor of West Arnhem Regional Council, and Ross Mandi, chairman of Yalu Aboriginal Corporation in Galiwinku, with the support of the Maritime Union of Australia and the United Workers Union.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,513 comments on “Roy Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor”

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  2. poroti

    Regarding the ability of AZ to reduce re-transmission.

    I’d prefer if the real world trials were done in some other country!

  5. Went to the supermarket this afternoon. Nearly all customers were wearing masks. Seemed to be no shortages although the toilet paper shelves were a bit light-on.

    Also went on a one hour walk from home taking in a couple of local parks. The were quite a few people about, enjoying a perfect blue-sky Winter’s afternoon, walking dogs, jogging, moving balls around with boots or bats. Unlike the first lockdown, park benches, picnic tables and kids’ play equipment hasn’t been taped off.

  6. Bulldogs thrashing Eagles at home.

    The 50,000 locked out crowd not so pissed off any more.

    Bulldogs shaping up as genuine Premiership contenders.

  10. The best thing about Andrews returning is that there is no more need to hear from the little shit Merlino who for some reason reminds me too much of Adam Bandt and Sutton should be sacked and Weiner should go back to doing bus timetables.

  12. Mike Carlton
    @MikeCarlton01
    ·
    3m
    Here’s a long punt for you, people.
    @DanielAndrewsMP
    is just 48 years old. I reckon he’ll be Prime Minister by the time he’s 60. And a very good one at that, in the great Labor tradition. Discuss.

    Over Littlefingers dead body ..!

  14. mundo says:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 5:21 pm
    lizzie @ #1931 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 5:14 pm

    The_Pythia
    @TPythia
    ·
    24m
    Wow, #StuntMo IS getting smashed on Facebook. He has posted some smarmy BS about some long-married couple’s anniversary to shift the bollocking further down the page but there are MANY negative comments that have attracted many likes. He is TOAST.
    Long may the bollocking continue.
    TOAST I TELLS YA!#*&*^$%!!!!!!!!!!!!&^#&^$%*&$%#*&^@&*
    ——————–
    Took a while but
    About time people are telling Morrison he is toast,

  15. Ah, the Crossways Hotel South Strathfield

    Been there many a time.

    Used to do our quota of jobs early and hide the work van in the back car park.

    Shoot up to the TAB on the highway for a quick bet to kill time and a nice counter lunch in the pub.

    Those were the days.

  17. Victoria
    Actually think Merlino has been really good.
    ———————–
    Victoria
    I would expect you to say that 😉

  18. kezza2 @ #2224 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 5:05 pm

    “They stuffed up the management of that case with an unmasked, unvaccinated limo driver”

    Hang on a minute. The driver said he was masked at all times, was not vaccinated because of a medical condition, and cleaned his car after every pick-up.

    The protocols, i.e. for limo drivers, were put in place after this outbreak, that’s why NSW police could not charge him with any offence. So blame NSW officials, if not Glad.

    Leave the poor bugger alone.

    And that goes for all the commentators who have published shite about this situation.

    Sorry, that was meant to be my point, that the officials had stuffed up. Agree that blaming the driver is the wrong approach, as I’ve mentioned a couple of times today.

  21. Will Qld punish NSW tonight for causing pending nationwide lockdown?
    If so something else that will be Gladys’s fault

  22. I was robopolled by Community Engagement Limited today. I’m not sure who they were polling for, but a couple of the questions were around recent changes to the Medicare benefits schedules (something about removal of rebates for hundreds of types of orthopaedic surgery and heart surgery) and the Morrison Government’s cuts to Medicare. Some of these questions did seem to be worded to elicit a negative response.

    There were also questions on Morrison’s handling of Covid and the speed of the vaccination roll out.

  23. on the limo driver and responsibility.

    Clearly there were multiple failures starting with the Minister’s faulty orders, a failure of NSW Health to provide adequate scrutiny and advice wrt the orders, and a failure of the Minister and NSW Health to be proactive about liaising with relevant agencies to ensure compliance etc.

    However, personally I don’t think the driver can escape all responsibility. It was clear that potentially covid positive passengers may be transported, and the driver must have understood that. If, eg, he knew he couldn’t be vaccinated then he also should have known that he should not have been doing that job. Sure, the government and his employer should have been checking, but no one gets a free pass to say “oh my job is more important in these circumstances to doing what I know to be the right thing” when the consequences were obviously potentially so serious.

    Should he be focused on as sole scapegoat? Clearly not. Does individual responsibility mean nothing anymore? I hope not.

  25. Vic,

    Labor in Victoria haven’t missed a beat while Andrews has been on the sidelines.

    Dan coming back is a bonus.

    But, the Libs are divided, pathetic and totally unelectable atm.

    Maybe Taylorsmear and his whatabouts strategy are the answer. They’ve got nothing else.

  27. If you like scary news:

    5.57pm
    ‘A cross-country seeding event’: Australia on verge of national outbreak
    By Rachel Clun

    Every state and territory is on high alert in fear of a national outbreak of the highly contagious Delta strain of COVID-19 as 35 new cases of community transmission were recorded in four separate jurisdictions.

    Australian Medical Association vice-president Dr Chris Moy said the virulence of the Delta strain was a major factor in the national outbreak.

    “We’re basically having a cross-country seeding event, that’s as simple as that,” he said.

    Dr Moy said states and territories have to go hard on restrictions early to minimise the spread after two separate coronavirus outbreaks have sparked cases in NSW, the Northern Territory, Western Australia and Queensland.

    “It’s beaten the NSW contact tracers, and the reliance on contact tracers and holding out [on introducing a lockdown] for a few days has led to seeding across the country.

    “This is a different beast. You’ve got to go hard at this: really, that’s your best chance.”
    (Age updates at 17:57)

  30. “It’s beaten the NSW contact tracers, and the reliance on contact tracers and holding out [on introducing a lockdown] for a few days has led to seeding across the country.

    Nice work Gladys, the country is paying for your intransigence.

  31. There is no evidence the driver breached public health orders. Sounds to me like there was no requirement to be vaccinated (or wear a mask). Which is basically the same as (implicitly) advising drivers that going unvaccinated and without a mask is an acceptable risk.

    The government has expert advice. Can the driver really be faulted for taking them at their word?

  32. Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 5:31 pm

    Arthur

    Threatening violence is against the new rules of legislation passed the other day on online abuse.

    It’s up to the individual the government appointed so you may get away with it.

    …..

    Really Guytaur?

    Shouldn’t a wokist halfwit such as yourself defend another persons right to be “triggered” by an attack on their psychological disorder?

    What kind of subversive are you???

    I couldn’t give a flying fuck about any “government appointed individual”.

    Fuck the Federal Government.

    If the AFP wish come and arrest me for telling an idiot on the internet that it is an idiot, they should first consult with the Queensland police and see how many registered firearms I have.

    Peace to your mama.

  33. Can the driver really be faulted for taking them at their word?

    Clearly, legally, the NSW government stuffed up, and there was – legally, as the police investigation showed – no legal requirement due to said stuff up.

    That’s different to whether working without vaccination in what was clearly a “front line” role with known significant risk of exposure to the virus was by anyone’s definition “the right thing to do”.

    I would say it was clearly not the right thing to do, and the driver certainly should have known that.

    Arguing from a legal perspective is not helpful in assigning responsibility IMO.

  34. The real issue of course is that the driver served as the trigger for the destruction of the myth of nsw covid exceptionalism. The Coalition and the people who bought into and peddled that myth want revenge. Absolutely disgusting behaviour.

  36. Arthur

    I didn’t demean your mental health.

    I just made a point.

    By the way. Woke is Western Civilisation now.
    Trump lost.

  37. Jackol

    I would say it was clearly not the right thing to do

    Based on what knowledge? Where did he get his knowledge of what was safe/unsafe from? The government? Who had expert advice? Who then (implicitly) advised him that it was ok?

  39. Arthur,

    Just saying, but WB does not approve of posters making physical harm threats on PB.

    So, you might want to temper your posts.

    Cheers

  42. I would say it was clearly not the right thing to do, and the driver certainly should have known that.

    Arguing from a legal perspective is not helpful in assigning responsibility IMO.

    My own opinion is that vaccination should be a mandatory requirement for anyone working in a frontline human service capacity. Employers should be required to either provide vaccine settings for such staff, or allow them to attend a clinic to receive vaccination in work time.

    I suspect the problem is that such staff are possible in demand and therefore employers, including the govt aren’t able to set such standards for employment.

  43. @TroyPSimpson tweets

    Silly people at my local Canberra Woollies panic buying toilet paper. It’s *chocolate* you need to stock up on

  44. I’m not making a legal argument.

    I mean, if he had asked PB we would have told him what’s what, but then how irresponsible would it be to take advice from anonymous randos on some internet forum?

    Surely there’s no better source of advice regarding quarantine than the authority handling the quarantine?

    If wearing a mask and getting vaccinated is “clearly the right thing to do”, then why wasn’t it a requirement for the job?

  45. 35 new cases of community transmission were recorded in four separate jurisdictions.

    That would be 140+ cases, unless he means across four separate jurisdictions. Mind you, that’s bad enough news.

  47. This one slipped under the radar… I wonder why?

    Dates: Tue, 29 June 2021 – Fri, 2 July 2021
    Location: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney

    We have made the decision to postpone Hillsong Conference 2021 in both Sydney and London until 2022.

  49. poroti,
    Not a lawyer here, if anyone is?
    Why can’t the Vic ALP pass something like a state based truth in media law to start putting pressure on the press over lies and missinformation?

  50. DisplayName –

    Based on what knowledge?

    The public pronouncements from government, health experts etc. The whole “we need to ensure our frontline workers are vaccinated” has been part of the public debate for many months. The issue of multiple leaks through the quarantine system – particularly including airports – has been in the news for many months.

    I find it very hard to believe that he simply didn’t know. We’re all expected to keep up some level of engagement with society to the point we are aware of our responsibilities as general citizens – no one has rung me or emailed me or whatever and yet I’m aware that I should do my part to get vaccinated when I can.

    I’m all for hounding the NSW government to kingdom come over their failures here, but I’m not ok with saying the driver should face no criticism whatsoever.

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