Roy Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor

Another pollster with another tight voting intention result, plus preselection latest from federal seats in Perth.

Roy Morgan has produced its second federal poll in a fortnight, and will hopefully make a regular habit of this going forward. The poll credits Labor with a bare lead of 50.5-49.5 (Morgan’s rounding being done to increments of half a percentage point), down from 51-49 last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up 1.5% to 41.5%, Labor is down half a point to 34.5%, the Greens are up half a point to 12% and One Nation is up half a point to 3.5%. State two-party breakdowns have the Coalition leading 51-49 in New South Wales, 56-44 in Queensland and 52-48 in Western Australia, but with Labor leading 55-45 in Victoria, 52-48 in South Australia and 57-43 in Tasmania.

The poll was conducted by telephone and online surveys over the previous two weekends from a sample of 2782. Since we will presumably be hearing more from Morgan in future, it’s worth pointing out that the company is not a member of the Australian Polling Council, and thus does not observe the standards of transparency demanded of its code of conduct.

Other news:

Peter Law of The West Australian reports that Labor’s candidate for the key Perth seat of Swan will be Zaneta Mascarenhas, an engineer who runs an energy management consultancy. This comes after the state party’s Left-dominated administration committee blocked the nomination of the only other contender, former South Perth councillor Fiona Reid, on the grounds she had run as an independent candidate at the 2017 state election, to the displeasure of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. Mascarenhas is aligned with the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers’ Union. The West’s report also relates that Tania Lawrence, a manager at Woodside who ran unsuccessfully for Labor in Darling Range at a state by-election in 2018, is the party’s only nominee in the seat of Hasluck.

• Pollster John Utting has told The West Australian that his recent polling leads him to expect that Labor will win Swan and possibly Pearce. He also believes that Labor will “probably” win the election off the back of wins in Chisholm, Boothby, Longman and potentially Leichhardt, Braddon and Bass, although they could potentially lose Eden-Monaro and Macquarie. Utting has polled extensively for Labor and provided polling for The West Australian five months out from the March state election that had the measure of the eventual result.

Roxanne Fitzgerald of the ABC reports a complaint has been lodged with the Human Rights Commission accusing the Australian Electoral Commission of discrimination against indigenous voters, having failed to provide sufficient polling facilities to remote communities and directly enrol people who do not receive mail at a residential address. The complainants are Matthew Ryan, mayor of West Arnhem Regional Council, and Ross Mandi, chairman of Yalu Aboriginal Corporation in Galiwinku, with the support of the Maritime Union of Australia and the United Workers Union.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,513 comments on “Roy Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor”

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  1. Pretty much a status quo Newspoll, but that’s not really surprising; was saying to my wife just before that I wish it wasn’t coming out for another week.

  2. meher baba

    We have had month of the right wing press, Morrison, Glady and for that matter you trying to undermine the Victorian Heath responses. You can’t blame Victorian’s for giving Glady and Morrison the two finger solute when their playing with fire comes unstuck.

    As for wishing it be worse, as thing stands it looks as if Glady’s skating on thin ice has exported the problem to multiple states, I see no reason to wish it would be worse. I see many good reason for people to be very angry.

  3. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 8:27 pm
    I didn’t know this about latrell Mitchell:

    Mitchell’s maternal great aunt is Evonne Goolagong Cawley.

    Talent in the blood.

    Indeed if true. Because today he did a one on strip that lead to a Try, then pushed a QLD player over the line for line drop out and a intercept 90 metre try all in first half.

  4. jt1983says:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 8:38 pm
    As someone living in the ACT, who has plans for an interstate holiday very soon (to a non-impacted state)… I’m a little miffed at being targeted without a clear explanation being given, even

    You can go to SA. Wait they closed the border for ACT although they have no cases for along long time. 🙂

  5. Better Origin tonight but the 26-0 to the Blues says it all. The Maroons were unlucky not to score but the Blue’s defence once again made the difference.
    Bit of a worry that there were no evident C.19 precautions, though I’m sure Palaszczuk and Young knew what they were doing.

  6. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 8:51 pm
    Sodomy and Catholicism seem to have a certain resonance. As Rev Paisley said Rome is the “mother of harlots and abominations of the Earth”

    Isn’t it ironic that Sinn Féin is the most progressive party socially and economically in the Assembly

    Unionists and Sinn Fe’nn were the forerunner for what will happen in US between Tories and Progressives when Tories go bat shit crazy and progressives sit back and allow it happen after Good Friday agreement..

  7. Torchbearersays:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 9:34 pm
    ….but we have been seeing a lot of irrational behaviour against self interest by the average worker across the Anglo world lately.

    You don’t say. And why do you think is that? I have an answer but many people don’t like it.

  8. Scepticsays:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 9:37 pm
    The Oxford vaccine: the trials and tribulations of a world-saving jab
    Amid bemusement from scientists at the deluge of often undeserved criticism, the Guardian pieces together the story behind the vaccine’s successes and failures

    ‘It was an inspired, idealistic and philanthropic crusade – yet they have spent the last year being attacked from all sides.”

    Monumental white anting!

    People take decades to develop a vaccine for serious illness (Take for example, Malaria). But They are able to develop a Vaccine in a year from start to finish for COVID, which itself is miracle and monumental.

    This reminds me of GFC and Rudd government response, which was the best response anywhere in the world. People were grateful for a few months and behaved afterwards as if GFC was no big deal.
    Other countries response has entrenched poverty and led political extremism we are seeing in various western countries.

  9. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 9:38 pm
    Been There @ #2458 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 8:54 pm

    Staunch Queenslander here.

    Remember, every C@t has it’s day.

    Enjoy the fleeting moment.

    I’m just enjoying it after too many Queensland wins. Let me have my moment of joy, eh?

    Touche’ C@tmomma. QLD dominated for 11 years and that is a bloody long time. 🙂

  10. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 9:39 pm
    Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 49 (-1) ALP 51 (+1) Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 41 (0) ALP 37 (+1) GRN 11 (0) ON 3 (0) Preferred PM: Morrison 53 (0) Albanese 33 (+1) Morrison: Approve 55 (+1) Disapprove 41 (-2)

    What it says is that Morrison is not facing any consequences for what ever happened on COVID management because his net approval rating has increased or statistically remains same.

  11. Ven @ #2498 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 10:55 pm

    What it says is that Morrison is not facing any consequences for what ever happened on COVID management

    Too soon. Wait until NSW has been on lockdown for a couple of weeks and all the other states have had to start lockdowns of their own because NSW was so slow to lock down and the vaccine rollout is only at 5%. Then ask the question again.

  12. Sceptic @9:37

    Leaving aside all the other mis-steps, the core of Astra Zeneca’s problem is that they attempted to massage data from the trials, mixing data from the substantial trials with a full dose, with data from a small accidental trial with a lower dose. In order to bump up the efficacy.

    Supposedly there would be further trials with a half dose that would prove AZ could work better, but where has this data gone? What also makes me suspicious of AZ is the role of its sales persons in influencing the Australian government to throw all of its eggs into the AZ basket. That wasn’t entirely legitimate either.

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