Roy Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor

Another pollster with another tight voting intention result, plus preselection latest from federal seats in Perth.

Roy Morgan has produced its second federal poll in a fortnight, and will hopefully make a regular habit of this going forward. The poll credits Labor with a bare lead of 50.5-49.5 (Morgan’s rounding being done to increments of half a percentage point), down from 51-49 last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up 1.5% to 41.5%, Labor is down half a point to 34.5%, the Greens are up half a point to 12% and One Nation is up half a point to 3.5%. State two-party breakdowns have the Coalition leading 51-49 in New South Wales, 56-44 in Queensland and 52-48 in Western Australia, but with Labor leading 55-45 in Victoria, 52-48 in South Australia and 57-43 in Tasmania.

The poll was conducted by telephone and online surveys over the previous two weekends from a sample of 2782. Since we will presumably be hearing more from Morgan in future, it’s worth pointing out that the company is not a member of the Australian Polling Council, and thus does not observe the standards of transparency demanded of its code of conduct.

Other news:

Peter Law of The West Australian reports that Labor’s candidate for the key Perth seat of Swan will be Zaneta Mascarenhas, an engineer who runs an energy management consultancy. This comes after the state party’s Left-dominated administration committee blocked the nomination of the only other contender, former South Perth councillor Fiona Reid, on the grounds she had run as an independent candidate at the 2017 state election, to the displeasure of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. Mascarenhas is aligned with the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers’ Union. The West’s report also relates that Tania Lawrence, a manager at Woodside who ran unsuccessfully for Labor in Darling Range at a state by-election in 2018, is the party’s only nominee in the seat of Hasluck.

• Pollster John Utting has told The West Australian that his recent polling leads him to expect that Labor will win Swan and possibly Pearce. He also believes that Labor will “probably” win the election off the back of wins in Chisholm, Boothby, Longman and potentially Leichhardt, Braddon and Bass, although they could potentially lose Eden-Monaro and Macquarie. Utting has polled extensively for Labor and provided polling for The West Australian five months out from the March state election that had the measure of the eventual result.

Roxanne Fitzgerald of the ABC reports a complaint has been lodged with the Human Rights Commission accusing the Australian Electoral Commission of discrimination against indigenous voters, having failed to provide sufficient polling facilities to remote communities and directly enrol people who do not receive mail at a residential address. The complainants are Matthew Ryan, mayor of West Arnhem Regional Council, and Ross Mandi, chairman of Yalu Aboriginal Corporation in Galiwinku, with the support of the Maritime Union of Australia and the United Workers Union.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,513 comments on “Roy Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor”

  1. PM has recorded a message to Sydney with words like “necessary” and “best contact tracing system … in the world”.

    Don’t recall this for Qld or Vic, but maybe I blocked it out.

    I see the Origin of Species is on anyway.

  2. I didn’t know this about latrell Mitchell:

    Mitchell’s maternal great aunt is Evonne Goolagong Cawley.

    Talent in the blood.

  3. The Northern Ireland Parliament was quite a piece of work with a Senate, elected by the Commons but historically a large contingent of Irish Peers and a Governor. Even without the systemic gerrymander and the effective boycott by the Nationalist community, the NI parliament would have never considered a rescission.

    Unionism is ill but not dead. The less fervid DUP are heading to Alliance but the unreconstructed are going to Traditional Ulster Voice to continue the fight

    It is also interesting that while the effects of Brexit and the Irish Sea border would seem the most pressing problem. The crisis in unionism has been caused by the Irish Language Act (which directly affects 4000 people). In NI symbolism is everything

  4. Nath was Shortens stalker. Who the fuck could be that obsessed by a pollie? Needs to seek professional help.

  5. As someone living in the ACT, who has plans for an interstate holiday very soon (to a non-impacted state)… I’m a little miffed at being targeted without a clear explanation being given, even if I get the likely reasoning.

    Was in a holiday area over the weekend and when the Sydney (etc) lockdown was announced there were clearly A LOT of people from Sydney who did not go into isolation or leave. I overheard a group of people referring to dinner last night as their “last night of freedom”… Um, no.

    …and yes, I see the irony of my second paragraph there.

  6. Sodomy and Catholicism seem to have a certain resonance. As Rev Paisley said Rome is the “mother of harlots and abominations of the Earth”

    Isn’t it ironic that Sinn Féin is the most progressive party socially and economically in the Assembly

  7. Haven’t read the entire discussion on Northern Ireland, so apologies if covering already covered ground.

    The DUP are in the process of changing leaders for the second time in a few weeks. I suspect that in the coming weeks you will see some repositioning from them to a harder line, to stop their traditional base deserting them for the TUV (Traditional Unionist Voice). I think their new position will be something along the lines of that if the protocol is not dramatically changed, they may well collapse the Northern Ireland assembly. At the very least, they will refuse to agree to an Irish Language Act. The incoming leader is already positioning for this. His argument, and I think it is a reasonable one, that new decade new approach, which the DUP and Sinn Fein have agreed to, includes a commitment to deliver a language act, but also a commitment to no trade barriers between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. So basically, the DuP will say that you can’t have one without the other.

    On a united Ireland, I have seen two recent polls on this. One had remaining in the UK leading 47-42, the other by a considerably wider margin, I will see if I can find it.

  8. Cud Chewer@7.01pm
    This “risk management” culture is simply gambling.
    Governance = Gambling in the Rum Corp State.
    There aren’t enough chairs when the music stops.
    Gladys has produced a fuck up to match the plethora of Morrison fuck ups.
    The bullshit we’ve been subjected to by the bullshit media and the serfs working in fuedal structures.
    Leaders and integrity in short supply in both the NSW and Federal LNP governments.

  9. Another thing; someone referred to homophobia in the DUP. This has deep routes going back to the establishment of the party in the 1970s. The party came about through the extremely socially conservative Ian Paisley and the church he led. I find this pretty sickening, and as a hard line Unionist myself, am unsure who I would feel comfortable voting for where I in Northern Ireland. I would probably reluctantly vote UUP, although they are softer on Unionist related issues then I would like.

  10. With 16% of the votes in polls, I don’t think the DUP will collapse the assembly anytime soon. They would end up behind SF, Alliance and possibly TUV.

    The populace of NI is moving on, precipitated by Brexit, the DUP is being left behind

  11. For Northern Ireland look at the trade figures.

    The border in the sea is the issue Johnson shafted them on.

    Johnson cannot change or he loses his longed for Free Trade Deal with the US. Biden made clear his views about the NI protocol.

    The DUP is shifting deck chairs on the titanic.

    The bad news for the UK. Ireland is already an English speaking financial centre in the EU. Now without Scotland or London competition.

    Scotland wants back in the EU. Northern Ireland is the first domino to fall.

    Ireland is going to be the new UK. Good for us. Australia had all those convicts sent here.

  12. ‘Oakeshott Country says:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 9:11 pm

    With 16% of the votes in polls, I don’t think the DUP will collapse the assembly anytime soon. They would end up behind SF, Alliance and possibly TUV.

    The populace of NI is moving on, precipitated by Brexit…’
    ___________________________________
    In what way is it moving on?

  13. One daughter reports a suburban Woolworths in Canberra has been raided by the hoarders. No face masks left. She is now trying Coles a few km away.

    Thanks again Gladys.

  14. As the polls are beginning to show the populace are beginning to realise that NI’s future is with the South.
    I think Unionism’s most practical approach is to agitate for federalism. SF at one stage supported this. I think FF and FG would also be happy to have NI autonomous

  15. Here is a link to the other poll I referred to; it had support for staying in the UK leading at 53-30. The Irish News try and spin it, and don’t do a real good job. https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2021/06/12/news/third-of-people-would-vote-for-a-united-ireland-tomorrow-survey-finds-2352838/

    @OC

    The DUP have no choice but to take a hard line as I see it. To do otherwise will simply see their base stay home, and I think that is being reflected in current poling. As it is, Unionists have a reputation for staying home, and many are very dissolusioned with political Unionism. So a harder line is where they are heading. What may happen though is that they will stop short of collapsing the assembly, but call Sinn Fein’s bluff. They have threatened to collapse the assembly if a language act is not delivered, and I think the DUP will settle on a position of no dramatic changes to the protocol, no language act.

  16. Peter collingnon @theproject tv tonight..
    He was soft interviewed ..

    Where does Prof Collignon get his numbers from.. if Aus where to vaccinate at the rate he says (2m/w) will be doing later this year we would be doing it 50 X faster than the US do now.. they vaccinate 8.4 m /week for pop of 330 Million..

    Collignon is pure fiction !

  17. GDP Ireland 2019
    GDP per capita US$78,000

    GDP Northern Ireland 2019
    GDP per capita US$42,00

    Which is going to go up as the English speaking financial hub of Europe and which is going to go down as a province of England?

    In 2021 what reason does northern Ireland now have to exist?

  18. Matt 31
    Do you not think it bizarre that an Irish Language Act has been a major disruptor of the Northern state

    “Curry my yoghurt and a can of cola”


  19. davidwh says:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 9:27 pm

    I think he moved the decimal point once too far to the left.

    I think so too.

  20. Guytaur

    Borris Johnson has got himself in a bind. Yes, Biden has made his position clear, but his bluff needs to be called on this. There is a significant Irish expat population in the US, and the Democrats feel they need to make the right noises to appease them. But on the other side, there is growing anger in Johnson’s own party at the EU’s inflexibility on the protocol, with growing noises that the UK has to draw a line. The momentum seems to be shifting towards a harder line, and not before time. Johnson should never have agreed to the protocol, although I certainly understand why he did it. The idea that there can be trade barriers within the UK is, and always was, ridiculous.

    As for Scotland, don’t be fooled by the political dominance of the SNP. There is still absolutely no guarantee that a second referendum would deliver a yes to independence, and there isn’t even a likelihood of a second referendum any time soon.

  21. When you look at GDP per capita, HDI, wages or liveability- The Northern Irish would be mad to stay in the UK…..but we have been seeing a lot of irrational behaviour against self interest by the average worker across the Anglo world lately.

  22. The Oxford vaccine: the trials and tribulations of a world-saving jab
    Amid bemusement from scientists at the deluge of often undeserved criticism, the Guardian pieces together the story behind the vaccine’s successes and failures

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/26/the-oxford-vaccine-the-trials-and-tribulations-of-a-world-saving-jab
    ‘It was an inspired, idealistic and philanthropic crusade – yet they have spent the last year being attacked from all sides.”

    Monumental white anting!

  23. the full hit of the covid crises hasn’t been felt yet, with Sydney only just gone into lockdown, the poll would be done before this.

  24. Matt31

    Look at the trade figures. Remember Sinn Fein has a hard core militant wing that the Loyalists are going to find hard to turn out to match.

    Ireland threatens London’s financial centre. Northern Ireland just cannot match what a stable English speaking country inside the EU presents to the world.

    The young population has grown up without the religious sectarianism forced by a hard border.

    It’s just a matter of time. What has surprised me is how fast it’s moving.

    Scotland is a whole different kettle of fish. Don’t discount what even Remain voters thought with the breaking of the promise to stay in the EU. It’s certainly going to happen a lot slower if at all.

  25. Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 49 (-1) ALP 51 (+1) Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 41 (0) ALP 37 (+1) GRN 11 (0) ON 3 (0) Preferred PM: Morrison 53 (0) Albanese 33 (+1) Morrison: Approve 55 (+1) Disapprove 41 (-2)

  26. Torch
    And why polls in the republic show a significant minority opposing reunion. For all the rhetoric, the established parties in the south are in no hurry

  27. I have supported and consistently helped finance this place since “Crikey” was a thing.

    In various forms, for over a decade I have put small amounts of my own my money into supporting Pollbudger, because I held a genuine belief that it was the last true place of honest
    disagreement and political debate in this country .

    It is no longer that place.

    It has become a land where a literal idiot like Guytaur threatens the Federal Police against someone who objects to their retarded view of the world.

    Fuck You Guytaur.

    You waste of space.

    Hitler’s henchmen would have told Kerry Chant to class you as a gypsy worthy of a bar of stone soap.

  28. OC

    I think it boils down to a couple of things. One argument is, why is it needed? It isn’t as though Irish cannot be spoken in Northern Ireland, so why is an act required?

    But the real issue is that there is a strong feeling among Unionism that for the 23 years since the Good Friday Agreement was signed, the process has been one sided. From policing, to parades, to the displaying of Union flags, just to name a few things; there is a strong feeling in Unionism that the process is being used to erode their culture and identity. So I think to at least some extent the issue of an Irish language act has been caught up in the frenzy over the protocol, and the feeling among Unionism of concession fatigue; the idea that Unionism is meant to accept a border down the Irish Sea, and at the same time, wave through an Irish language act.

  29. Arthur

    Blame the government and Labor.

    It’s legislation they passed. I thought it was overreach.

    I just pointed it out to you.

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