Essential Research and Redbridge Group Victorian poll

One pollster records nervous attitudes towards China, another a modest lead for the Labor government in Victoria.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll offers questions on foreign relations that include the finding that 51% believe Australia should become less close to China, down three points since December, with 24% believing relations should stay the same and only 12% believing they should get closer. By contrast, respondents were positive about relations with, in ascending order of enthusiasm, the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and New Zealand. Further questions record a surge for the influence of the United States since May last year and the intervening presidential election result.

An occasionally recurring question on climate change also found 56% believing it to be caused by human activity against 27% for normal fluctuation, suggesting a slight shift to skepticism since a few years ago. Forty-five per cent rate that Australia is not doing enough on climate change compared with 30% for enough and 12% for too much. Assessments on this question appear to have become more lenient since the onset of COVID-19, prior to which “not doing enough” was at upwards of 60%. A series of related questions record enthusiasm for renewable energy and a zero emissions target. The poll was conducted online from Wednesday to Sunday with a sample of 1087.

We also had a Victorian state poll yesterday in the Herald-Sun from Redbridge Group, which is run by former Labor operatives Simon Welsh and Kosmos Samaras. The primary votes are solidly better for the Coalition than last week’s Resolve Strategic poll in The Age, showing them with a lead of 41% to 37%, but Labor is nonetheless credited with a lead of 52.4-47.6 on two-party preferred, reflecting a Greens vote of 12% compared with Resolve Strategic’s 9%. These come with regional breakdowns that can be viewed here.

The poll also has a preferred premier question had Daniel Andrews at 42.4%, Michael O’Brien on 23.1% and neither on 28.2%; Andrews leads James Merlino 67.5% to 32.5% in a head-to-head question on preferred Labor leader, and O’Brien trails his predecessor Matthew Guy by 63-37. The poll was conducted June 12 to 15 from a sample of 1484.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,486 comments on “Essential Research and Redbridge Group Victorian poll”

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  1. Simon Katich @ #1335 Thursday, June 24th, 2021 – 7:07 pm

    I believe the thread started with a post about a petition requesting Bezos die in space (owtte).

    I didn’t actually click through to the petition, though I assume it’s done in jest?

    So…. are you saying it is fine to have these people build up significant enterprise and then when they annoy us we can have them topped but thank them for all the fish (yes yes – the reference doesn’t quite make sense)?

    I’m saying you can like the enterprise without liking the person. Tesla is a business that makes good cars and batteries, not Elon’s will given tangible form. But yes to taking the fish. 🙂

    I am not very good at punditry on legal cases and I am no fan of the person who is suing for defamation…. yet I feel concerned about the well being of BRS right now.

    Considering the allegations, you’re very charitable.

  2. Why would you delete files if you never had evidence? Innocent until prooven guility?

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/ben-roberts-smith-used-software-to-scrub-laptop-but-denies-destroying-evidence-20210624-p583w9.html

    Former special forces soldier Ben Roberts-Smith has admitted that he used software to scrub his laptop hard drive after lawyers acting for media outlets at the centre of his high-profile defamation lawsuit asked him to keep a number of digital files.

    However, he insisted he was “not trying to conceal evidence” and never had.

    —————————

  3. The BRS situation reminds of a story I heard years ago about some captain of industry in the US who had zero tolerance of philandering by his executives.

    “If a man could lie to his wife about why he was late home,” he said, “ what could he lie to me about?”

  4. Apologies to Tom Petty:
    o/~
    No I won’t Lockdown, No I won’t lockdown,
    You can have bodies piling up at hospitals
    but I’ll stand my ground, and I won’t lock down…

  5. Firefox2says:
    Thursday, June 24, 2021 at 9:07 pm

    Quite a flattering picture, actually. How were Labor’s Senate swings in 2019? I’ll give you a hint; they don’t look nearly as good.

    ……..

    It pains me to say so, but Firefox is quite correct. What occured in our senate today is an affront to parliamentary democracy and it should be condemned.

    A disgrace.

    However, I am fairly fucking certain that self same person making comment on the physical appearance of a woman, no less than the Premier of a State, and subsequently posting a most unfavorable picture of that woman, is worthy of outright disgust.

    Crawl back under your rock, you misogynistic, whinging, pre-pubescent little worm.

  6. Arthur says:
    Thursday, June 24, 2021 at 11:43 pm

    “ However, I am fairly fucking certain that self same person making comment on the physical appearance of a woman, no less than the Premier of a State, and subsequently posting a most unfavorable picture of that woman, is worthy of outright disgust.”

    Get with the program – if you are on the Left you can criticise females because you are a feminist. If anyone else does it then they are obviously misogynists, not even merely sexist. And if the target is a Conservative female then it’s completely no holds barred as they deserve everything they get because they are the wrong type of women.

  7. “However, I am fairly fucking certain that self same person making comment on the physical appearance of a woman, no less than the Premier of a State, and subsequently posting a most unfavorable picture of that woman, is worthy of outright disgust.

    Crawl back under your rock, you misogynistic, whinging, pre-pubescent little worm.”

    ***

    What on earth are you on about? I did no such thing. I have never made a comment about the Qld Premier’s appearance, nor anyone else’s for that matter. Stop trolling me with this pathetic and immature nonsense which you obviously feel the need to resort to just because you can’t handle a political debate. If you must know, like most Millennials, I’m in my mid thirties. You’re the one acting like a little kid and having a sook.

  8. “Get with the program – if you are on the Left you can criticise females because you are a feminist.”

    ***

    Except I did nothing of the sort. Arthur has just totally lost the plot. He can’t handle a political debate so has to resort to trolling and abuse. It’s pathetic.

  9. Firefox2says:
    Thursday, June 24, 2021 at 11:56 pm

    What on earth are you on about? I did no such thing. I have never made a comment about the Qld Premier’s appearance

    ……..

    Direct quote from you, little boy:

    “QUITE A FLATTERING PICTURE ACTUALLY”

  10. ‘Direct quote from you, little boy.

    “QUITE A FLATTERING PICRURE OF HER”’

    ***

    No, that’s not a direct quote from me at all. I never said that. Perhaps you should go and reread what I said before you make an even bigger fool of yourself.

  11. William Bowesays:
    Friday, June 25, 2021 at 12:02 am
    Direct quote from you, little boy.

    “QUITE A FLATTERING PICRURE OF HER”

    Arthur, this is an outright lie.

    …….

    Its not.
    I edit corrected.
    That is what he actually said.

  12. Arthur, I’m going to re-post the original post for you so you can read it again.

    ………..
    Thursday, June 24, 2021 at 9:07 pm

    Cat: “And it’s been downhill ever since.

    And, big deal, Queensland. How about a national figure? Or a figure from a few other states? Afraid you might have to paint an unflattering picture?”

    ***

    Downhill for the Greens in Queensland since the 2019 Fed Election? I think Jackie Trad might strongly disagree with that statement lol.

    Sure, let’s have a look at some of the other Senate swings the Greens picked up in 2019, shall we?

    NSW: +1.32
    Vic: -0.25
    Qld: +3.13
    WA: +1.48
    NT: -0.54
    SA: +5.03! Go SHY!
    Tas: +1.41
    ACT: +1.61

    https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-24310-NAT.htm

    Quite a flattering picture, actually. How were Labor’s Senate swings in 2019? I’ll give you a hint; they don’t look nearly as good.

    ***

    The “flattering picture” comment was in relation to the Greens Senate swings in 2019 which Cat and I were arguing about. The Qld Premier wasn’t even mentioned in the post.

  13. Mr Bowe

    I am quite certain that I understood that paricular piece of propaganda in the precice fashion for which it was intended to be interpreted.

  14. I’m quite certain that you’re trolling me and making up complete nonsense. My “flattering picture” comment was a direct response to Cat’s “unflattering picture” comment and was in relation to the 2019 Senate results. Neither of us were talking about the Premier, you’ve just made that up and have deliberately misquoted me.

  15. Firefox2says:
    Friday, June 25, 2021 at 12:33 am

    I’m quite certain that you’re trolling me .

    ……..

    You seem to spend most of your life trolling people.

    Your attempted liguistic expansion is noted, but will not improve your mark.

    I’m still giving you a C- for the semester.

    Do better in Term 3.

  16. Raina McIntyre in the SMH:

    For a year and a half we have been fed a false narrative that has seen people obsessively washing their hands and being reassured by “deep cleaning”, with very low awareness that what matters most is the air we breathe. Most infections probably occur after inhaling shared air, not from a ballistic strike with a droplet of spittle that lands in your eye or nose.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-re-sitting-ducks-the-case-for-a-short-sharp-lockdown-to-battle-delta-variant-20210624-p5840i.html

    Sigh…

    It was worse than a “false narrative”. It led to 15 months of a Hotel Quarantine system out of which just about all clusters have arisen.

    The worse it got, the more “The Science” and the politicians to whom they give cover doubled down on how wonderfully it worked: depending on who’s bragging on any given day, from “99.8%” to “99.99%”, with any questioning of the policy now declared to be “offensive” and even “un-Australian”.

    Once you start seeing people under your care die, it’s too late to admit the mistake. You have to bluff it out as if you were right all along. Tonight’s performance on Q&A by that numpty Liberal had vaccine penetration at “40%”, when it is less than 3%. She claimed she was only “following The Science”, when the truth was she’d just made up the figures she blurted out (or worse, some PR flack had). Whenever someone tried to correct her, Hamish just let her interrupt and talk over them. It was a low point, in a dark valley of low points.

    Everything we were told over the last year was wrong, from the apparently mundane (but critically important) particle size of aerosols, to how it was science fiction to talk about whether the virus could mutate. And now the argument has become so pathetic that we can talk about “horizons” and “staying inside”, but not about “targets” or “lockdowns” (perhaps we can call lockdowns “The ‘L’ word”, kinda like “The ‘N’ word”?).

    One of our medical advisors here had a simple solution: “Wash your hands frequently and don’t pick your nose.” It sounded too easy at the time, and it was.

  17. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/rudy-giuliani-suspended-practice-law-york/story?id=78466032

    A New York court has suspended the law license of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, citing in part his work as counsel to former President Donald Trump.

    The Appellate Division of the New York Supreme Court said Thursday it was “immediately suspending” Giuliani’s license — although it is an interim suspension, so he will have an opportunity for reinstatement.

    “There is uncontroverted evidence that respondent communicated demonstrably false and misleading statements to courts, lawmakers and the public at large in his capacity as lawyer for former President Donald J. Trump and the Trump campaign in connection with Trump’s failed effort at reelection in 2020,” the Appellate Division wrote.

  18. a r

    The petition in question is asking that Bezos remain in space, not that he dies in space. I’m sure Bezos has the resources to live quite comfortably up there.

  19. Dandy

    Thanks for the link. What I’d really love to do is to demonstrate total reprocessing of landfill waste into useful resources (using primarily pyrolysis and arc furnaces). But the rules of that funding aren’t a great fit.

  20. Something for the ‘vaccine hesitant’ demographic……….

    Nearly all Covid deaths in US are now among unvaccinated

    An Associated Press analysis of available government data from May shows that “breakthrough” infections in fully vaccinated people accounted for fewer than 1200 of more than 853,000 Covid-19 hospitalisations. That’s about 0.1 per cent.

    And only about 150 of the more than 18,000 Covid-19 deaths in May were in fully vaccinated people. That translates to about 0.8 per cent, or five deaths per day on average.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-nearly-all-covid-deaths-in-us-are-now-among-unvaccinated/BNYDHJ4X6WJW6PISIC7UYNEADQ/

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