Two polls and a by-election date

Daniel Andrews continues to keep his head above water, despite waning patience with Victoria’s lockdown measures.

Opinion poll and by-election developments:

• Roy Morgan has published another of its SMS polls from Victoria, which records little change on state voting intention from a fortnight ago: Labor leads 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, as they did last time, from primary votes of Labor 40% (up one), Coalition 36% (down one) and Greens 9% (down one). Daniel Andrews records a 59-41 approval/disapproval split, in from 61-39 last time. However, support for existing lockdown measures is fast dissipating: there is now a 73-27 split in favour of allowing visits to immediate family members (out from 59-41 last time and 55-45 three weeks previously); 62-38 in favour of allowing table service (56-44 in favour last time and 63-37 against the time before); and 72-28 in favour of relaxing the five kilometre rule (61-39 in favour last time, 50-50 the time before). The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 899 for voting intention and 1163 for the lockdown questions.

• The Australian had results from a further question on the weekend’s Newspoll yesterday, which found 54% were more concerned about moving too quickly to relax lockdowns and restrictions, down two from mid-September, and 43% were more concerned about moving too slowly at the expense of the economy, jobs and mental wellbeing (up four).

• The date for the Groom by-election has been set at November 28.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,416 comments on “Two polls and a by-election date”

Comments Page 4 of 29
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  2. Zali Steggall has put up her climate change bill for review, which I commend. It is clear and consistent with what other OECD nations are doing. It is explained here and there is a petition you can sign. You can also read the full text. A+ for transparency and effort.
    https://join.climateactnow.com.au/

    As if the evidence of the effects of climate change are not now obvious enough, this article shows we are only scratching the surface.
    https://johnenglander.net/antarctic-hysteresis-big-word-big-problem/

  3. The failed seminarian still pedaling his “sacrifice the oldies” line . Not a lot of love from the comments section.
    .
    OPINION
    Historic preferences were overturned because lockdown enthusiasts weren’t going to feel the pain

    ……………..No society can guarantee everyone’s safety so the goal must be the old-fashioned notion of seeking the common good: the greatest good for the greatest number. That should be weighted to the future because, through history, most societies have preferenced their young as a simple matter of survival.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/historic-preferences-were-overturned-because-lockdown-enthusiasts-weren-t-going-to-feel-the-pain-20201013-p564m6.html#comments

  5. RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    ·
    3m
    Is anybody listening to this litany of alleged endless collusion & pocket lining by Daryl Maguire over many years – years that he spent as the lover of the NSW Premier – & not sitting there gobsmacked that people are still pretending #GladysBerejiklian can stay as leader?

    #ICAC

  7. Victoria @ #154 Wednesday, October 14th, 2020 – 11:25 am

    RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    ·
    3m
    Is anybody listening to this litany of alleged endless collusion & pocket lining by Daryl Maguire over many years – years that he spent as the lover of the NSW Premier – & not sitting there gobsmacked that people are still pretending #GladysBerejiklian can stay as leader?

    #ICAC

    Or that she wasn’t aware of ANY of it!?!

  8. lizzie says:
    Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 10:54 am

    We must not forget Matthew Guy, who made such a complete balls-up of Planning in Victoria.

    Gladys & Co. are trying a similar stunt in Sydney with the current fish markets site. Throw all planning controls out the window and jack up the height limits WAY beyond the predominant existing pattern of development.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-17/nsw-government-uploads-internal-development-talking-points/12363190

  10. David Speers
    @David_Speers

    Ex-MP Daryl Maguire admits he was “ultimately” selling access to “the highest levels of government” through his private dealings. #ICAC

    *cough* Gladys Berejiklian

  13. I wonder how many deaths Mordor Media was responsible for ?
    .
    .
    COVID Misinformation Is Killing People
    This “infodemic” has to stop

    . According to a study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, areas of the country exposed to television programming that downplayed the severity of the pandemic saw greater numbers of cases and deaths—because people didn’t follow public health precautions.
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-misinformation-is-killing-people1/

  14. mikehilliard

    And Guy has purchased the loyalty of the developers who made squillions from the changes. Corruption is not just in the donations.

  16. A rare event Gladys gives the press conference:
    13 new casel
    2 in hotel quarantine
    9 related to the A2Z GP practice in Lakemba
    2 related to the Private Clinic cluster

    “We are almost back to the stage when we were first infected by Victoria”

  17. @RonniSalt
    ·
    20m
    As I’ve been saying all along.

    In the Riverina they’ve known about Maguire for years. He’s a 24 hour professional schmoozer & silver fox.

    He targeted Gladys and her vulnerabilities.

    He knew exactly what he was doing and why he was doing it by pursuing a relationship with her.

  20. “We are almost back to the stage when we were first infected by Victoria”

    1. That statement just proves what a slimy little toad she is.

    2. She can’t blame Victoria for this outbreak. It’s all been on HER watch.

  21. Off topic, but just like children, dogs can reveal behavioural habits you aren’t aware of.

    Whenever I used to rush about in a frantic “tidy the house” effort, my kids would ask “Who’s coming?”

    Now, after months of semi-lockdown, as soon as I put on day clothes, the dogs go to sit at the front window, waiting for a visitor.

    They’re disappointed when it’s only the grocery delivery!

  24. @geeksrulz
    ·
    11m
    Imagine the massive Chadstone shopping centre opened like the Vic Libs and Fed Libs and all their media sycophants have been demanding. Imagine the massive crowds that go there. Imagine this cluster in those circumstances. #springst #auspol #COVIDIDIOTS

    I am particularly annoyed at Frydenberg’s ignorant urging. Just a Morrison puppet with no thought for his home town.

  26. Samantha Maiden
    @samanthamaiden
    ·
    6m
    BREAKING: NSW Premier ex-lover has been confronted at ICAC over allegations a company he was involved in charged Chinese a cash fee to meet @barryofarrell
    . Mr Maguire insists it was for a lunch.

  29. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 11:43 am

    1. That statement just proves what a slimy little toad she is.

    2. She can’t blame Victoria for this outbreak. It’s all been on HER watch.

    ————-

    NSW can no longer be the gold standard

  30. Zerlo @ #52 Wednesday, October 14th, 2020 – 11:50 am

    Samantha Maiden
    @samanthamaiden
    ·
    6m
    BREAKING: NSW Premier ex-lover has been confronted at ICAC over allegations a company he was involved in charged Chinese a cash fee to meet @barryofarrell
    . Mr Maguire insists it was for a lunch.

    Why did they have to pay #dodgydarrell? Couldn’t they have just paid for their own meal?

  31. Gladys looks to be in some trouble but i don’t see her resigning or being pushed at this stage because while its clear she knew her then partner was up to things but unless it can be shown she personally benefited then she will be safe.

  32. US polling tidbit…..
    Missouri 2nd District was won by the republicans in 2016 by 20pts (58-38). Pretty sure there has been no redistricting there since 2013 and the incumbent has had no scandals.

    Todays Yougov poll of the district has the Democrat ahead by 9 pts. If accurate, that is a HUGE turnaround in 4 years in a red state.

    The state itself has had no A rated polling attention. 538 currently has Trump ahead by 6. He won it by 18pts in 2016.

  33. C@t

    As I said earlier, her body language has been off for quite some time. I thought it was strange considering how well she has led the pandemic response (apart from Ruby)

  35. How bad can Covid get ? Check out the numbers. One for the “let ‘er rip” eejits.
    .
    COVID-19 Is Now the Third Leading Cause of Death in the U.S.

    It kills more people than the flu, contrary to Trump’s claims, and also surpasses stroke, Alzheimer’s and diabetes

    “It affects virtually nobody,” President Donald Trump said of the novel coronavirus on September 21….

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-19-is-now-the-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-the-u-s1/

  37. lizzie @ #169 Wednesday, October 14th, 2020 – 11:43 am

    Off topic, but just like children, dogs can reveal behavioural habits you aren’t aware of.

    Now, after months of semi-lockdown, as soon as I put on day clothes, the dogs go to sit at the front window, waiting for a visitor.

    They’re disappointed when it’s only the grocery delivery!

    My little hearing assistance dog knows from when the coffee maker goes that we are getting close to going out and as soon as I get my shoes he is pacing about anxiously waiting. Too smart for his own good at times.

  38. Victoria @ #59 Wednesday, October 14th, 2020 – 11:54 am

    C@t

    As I said earlier, her body language has been off for quite some time. I thought it was strange considering how well she has led the pandemic response (apart from Ruby)

    As Shellbell would tell you, that’s been all due to the fantastic efforts of NSW CHO, Dr Kerry Chant, putative Australian of the Year. 😉

  40. Hes from the sky news crowd who are happy for her to go

    Andrew Clennell
    @aclennell
    ·
    56m
    This Maguire story is already a front page Telegraph splash for tomorrow in terms of the revelations. And that’s at 11am. We haven’t even got to the discussions with Gladys yet.

  41. I think her biggest mistake was not shutting the gate on Victoria 10 days earlier. She and Morrison were driven by their ideology on this

  43. Scott. You could be right. NSW isn’t perfect after all.

    Some of the new cases that have emerged in south-western Sydney tells us, and Dr Chant explained this in great detail this morning, tells us there was some chains of transmission we hadn’t picked up weeks or months ago.

    She said the eased restrictions that they were considering… have now been put on hold

  44. Gladys , Morrrison and his cronies along with the corrupt foreign own libs/nats media propaganda units are still shouting for the states with close borders to be open.

    When will people wake up and see that if the borders are open, the corona virus infections will continue to rise

    Morrison and co need to be called out for their incompetence

  48. Scott @ #190 Wednesday, October 14th, 2020 – 11:58 am

    Gladys , Morrrison and his cronies along with the corrupt foreign own libs/nats media propaganda units are still shouting for the states with close borders to be open.

    When will people wake up and see that if the borders are open, the corona virus infections will continue to rise

    Morrison and co need to be called out for their incompetence

    Could Labor do it?
    Just asking.

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