Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Primary vote movement from Newspoll in favour of the Coalition and against Labor, as the government sneaks back into the lead on the two-party headline.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest Newspoll finds the Coalition sneaking back into a two-party lead of 51-49, after a 50-50 result three weeks ago. The primary votes are Coalition 43% (up two), Labor 34% (down two), Greens 12% (up one) and One Nation 3% (steady). Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are little changed, up one on approval to 65% and down one on disapproval to 31%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down four to 39% and down one to 40%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 58-29 to 59-27.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a larger-than-usual sample of 2068, which suggests we will be seeing state breakdowns in the coming days showing leadership and COVID-19 performance ratings for the state governments and Premiers.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

520 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. I was amused to read the byline for the Vanstone article in SMH online, “Daniel Andrews Day of Reckoning is Nigh”.

    The byline for the article in the Melbourne Age paper edition is the far less personal “Prune dead wood around Andrews.”

    One thought of the difference is that the Melbourne paper knew the public backlash in Victoria the SMH online byline would cause.

    Another thought is that, insofar as the Vanstone article isn’t innocuous partisan drivel, the Melbourne byline is actually a more accurate rounding of the article. For example, in the penultimate paragraph she drones “From the outside it looks as though the support around Andrews is weak.”

    Which leads to the Q, why is the SMH online knowingly writing a misleading byline creating a false leadershit issue?

    My answer is because 9Fairfax thinks there are papers to be sold in the “We are not all in this together” line and boo how bad is Andrews/Victoria cf Gladys/NSW.

  2. Tanya laying it on the line.

    This isn’t going to be fixed by the Prime Minister dressing up like Bob the Builder in his tradie fluros. The Prime Minister needs to take responsibility to help young people get an apprenticeship. That’s a secure job for them and an investment in Australia’s future. This isn’t going to be fixed up by a fake tradie ad campaign. It needs real commitment from the Prime Minister.

  3. Lucky he’s a Liberal Premier.

    Steven Marshall does not seem as positive when it comes to potentially opening the South Australian borders to NSW travellers, following the case of an infected taxi driver. The SA transition committee will meet tomorrow to discuss the NSW situation:

    We’re not going to rush it. We’ve got to make sure we don’t have a second wave here in South Australia.

    We don’t make political decisions, we don’t make ideological decisions.

    We make decisions here in our state based upon the expert health advice.”

    The Guardian blog

  4. Anyone fancy taking a punt on how Morrison would have played the H2 announcement if Labor had gone hard against the gas announcement last week?

  5. Dr Kylie Cairns, a molecular biologist the UNSW Centre for Ecosystem Science, tested the pup’s DNA and confirmed it was a purebred alpine dingo.

    “He shows no evidence of domestic dog ancestry and he is a further reminder that wild dingoes do persist in Victoria,” Dr Cairns said.

    She said it was important to understand that dingoes were a native species and were vital to the function of a healthy natural ecosystem as the apex predator.

    “It is troubling to see the term wild dog being so widely used for this native species because generally people do not realise that this term is used to lump dingoes in with roaming feral domestic dogs,” Dr Cairns said.

    Australian Dingo Foundation founder and director Lyn Watson said Sooty was found in an area where dingoes were actively baited, trapped and shot.

    She said it was likely that Sooty was orphaned and left to starve because his parents had been culled.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-21/pure-bred-alpine-dingo-pup-found/12683972

  6. Dandy Murray

    The H2 “announcement” is utter bullshit. Gas from the coal fracker feckers used to make H2 is a path to zero emissions ? As the great sage John Elliot once said ‘Pig’s Arse”.

    If Labor had of “gone hard” re the gas there would be nothing different from Scrott and crew. They same people would still be their maaates that need looking after. The only difference would be the choice of wrapping paper Scrott
    chose to wrap the box of crap sold to the public.

  7. Joe Hildebrand has been out calling Labor “Extreme Left” for its existing 2050 targets.

    It’s already started Labor. The right is getting you to cave on targets that’s already your policy. After all. Why not? It’s worked before.

  8. lizzie @ #244 Monday, September 21st, 2020 – 2:15 pm

    zoomster

    Thanks. I have assumed that if a policeman came to the car, I’d put my mask on before opening the window. Perhaps those fined didn’t even have masks to hand.

    Just tell the pigs that you are a sovereign citizen and that and you are asserting your human rights.

    She’ll be right mate. The coppers in Victoria are very understanding. 🐖

  9. Spray

    FJ is Labor’s Alan Jones. A very flawed character in some ways.
    However he has done more than many by telling a wide politically unengaged audience exactly what the Nationals have been doing with land clearing.

    Just zero coverage before FJ forced it onto the agenda.

    It’s why I cited the Young Turks as an example of a political channel that cuts through.

    They forced issues onto the agenda.

    Now Medicare 4 All or Universal Basic Income is discussed in political debate instead of being straight out dismissed like when Hillary Clinton tried to get our version of Medicare as a model for the US.

    Ditto MSNBC.

    Independent channels at least let diverse ideas be in the regular mainstream narrative.

    FJ is at least achieving this. I see him and his team as being roughly of the Joe Rogan model and yes forcing issues onto the agenda. We need a Young Turks and an MSNBC too.

    Diversity always defeats the narrow views pushed on people by the right that most people support. So you get common sense debate on issues like Climate Change.

    Our media problem is a lack of diversity that reaches the mainstream population. We just have right and extreme right narratives dominating.

    This is to the point that some in Labor think it’s politically advantageous to deny science to boost fossil fuels.

    We need the whole spectrum on the left that the US has.
    As today’s Newspolls show Labor is not getting its facts out to voters.
    Friendly Jordies is at least exposing the Nationals and our media for exactly that lack of diversity.

  10. Boerwar’s last posts here consisted of demands that I take action against Player One’s “death threats” against him. I told him to stop being an idiot, which I’ll happily reiterate if he’s still out there.

  11. Dandy Murray says:
    Monday, September 21, 2020 at 2:40 pm
    Anyone fancy taking a punt on how Morrison would have played the H2 announcement if Labor had gone hard against the gas announcement last week?

    i will. i doubt he would have announced it this week. he could land a quick left right today because his opponent didn’t put up his dukes last week. otherwise he’d have had to spend this week parrying last week’s counter blows from the *political* opposition. as they say re. chess : he & his media confederates have “got the tempo” on this. -a.v.

  12. I am uncertain as to how much training VicPol has to deal with mental health issues – or to recognise when it is serious.

    Community mental health is becoming a major factor for Victoria Police as the state struggles with coronavirus lockdown fatigue.

    The chief commissioner, Shane Patton, has also acknowledged that their reputation has taken a hit in the past few days, with one officer stood down after video of an arrest at Epping showed a man being hit by a police car and apparently stomped on the head.

    Officers were dealing with mental health issues more frequently during the state’s second wave, Mr Patton said.

    “Each day I check the reports from across the state … it seems anecdotally our members are attending a lot more incidents where we do have mental health issues,” he told 3AW.

  13. Fiona Katauskas
    @FionaKatauskas
    ·
    11m
    Ooeee, just had a normal seeming guy come round to look at putting in some blinds. Made him a cup of tea then he started telling me about Info Wars and the great Alex Jones products he buys to balance his minerals and cancel out the mind-controlling effects of fluoride.

  14. This doesn’t sound good.

    @Petrie_JohnC
    ·
    13h
    Tens of thousands of expats having their UK bank accounts closed and credit cards stopped because government failed to negotiate post Brexit rules. Lloyds and Barclays have started giving notice. Don’t remember that being mentioned in 2016? #BrexitReality

  15. It seems the Commonwealth deputy CMO is not for being used politically.

    He will surely receive a talking to!

    A few further points here from Coatsworth in response to journalists’ questions.

    He says there is “no doubt [the low cases numbers] will be provoking some thought on behalf of the Victorian government, about the roadmap and when restrictions can be lifted.

    But … we do need to sound a note of caution here. That is simply to say, the effort that Victorians have gone to so far, the incredible effort, could easily be undone. And we don’t want that to happen.

    The Guardian blog

  16. One of the effects of the pandemic seems to be that far too many people are searching for weird conspiracies and previously unknown ‘facts’ which they accept as gospel truth.

  17. Lizzie

    Since lockdown many cant get the usual drugs due to curfew and police being out and about. That will explain some of the increase in issues about the place

  18. William Bowe @ #267 Monday, September 21st, 2020 – 3:36 pm

    Boerwar’s last posts here consisted of demands that I take action against Player One’s “death threats” against him. I told him to stop being an idiot, which I’ll happily reiterate if he’s still out there.

    Did I miss something here? I don’t recall the incident in question, but … how can you make a “death threat” against an anonymous blogger?

  19. WB
    The above cartoon invokes Goebbels’ “do you want total war” speech before a crowd of hysterical Nazi faithful shortly after the defeat at Stalingrad in 1943.
    ——

    Indeed, and the banner says “democracy is the enemy of the people”. I assume that is a Goebbels quote also?

  20. Taylormade:

    Look out we have another ‘I do not recall’.
    It is not that bloody hard, i can easily recall work conversations from 6 months ago.

    How many pandemics have you been managing during the past six months?

  21. poroti

    With the flames around Big Ben alluding to the ‘Reichstag Fire” ? ‘Tis nazi references overload
    ———

    Good point! I didn’t notice that!

  22. Geez that FriendlyJordies video is cringeworthy. Is he really our only hope?

    FJ was good maybe half a decade ago when he made comical observations about the reactionaries in power, climate denialism etc. and being someone that bucked the trend of gushing over Malcolm Turnbull by portraying him as an aristocratic hypocrite.

    Alas, the last time I watched a video of his, he was too busy blaming pro-trans “wokeness” for promoting the banks (after a couple of other privileged “only issues that affect people like me matter” style videos) and his refusal to even make the most superficial fun of the ALP in any way kind of makes him a bore. Also, his schtick gets very tired, very quickly.

  23. I haven’t watched QandA for weeks but am reading that it has changed its format. Anybody know what this means? (It’s on Trump so I still won’t watch. Just interested.)

  24. Spraysays:
    Monday, September 21, 2020 at 4:19 pm
    Don’t go Nath. I had an answer to a question you posed the other night.
    _________
    I can’t really contribute like this. Plus my family detests me spending time on here so there’s always an upside!

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