Newspoll and Essential Research coronavirus polling

Among many other findings relating to COVID-19, the strongest evidence yet that Victorians are unswayed by news media narratives concerning their state government.

The Australian today reports Newspoll findings on COVID-19 and leadership approval from Victoria and Queensland, which were targeted with expanded samples (608 and 603 respectively) in the poll whose main results were published yesterday:

• Daniel Andrews is up five points on approval from late July to 62% and down two on approval to 35%, whereas Scott Morrison is down six on approval to 62% and up seven on disapproval to 33%. Andrews is reckoned to be doing very well in handling COVID-19 by 31% (up four), fairly well by 31% (down three), fairly badly by 13% (down five) and very badly by 22% (up four), while Morrison is on 26% for very well (down five), 45% for fairly well (down one), 15% for fairly badly (up three) and 10% for very badly (up one).

• Annastacia Palaszczuk’s ratings are only modestly changed, with approval down one to 63% and disapproval up four to 33% as compared with the poll in late July, while Scott Morrison is down five to 67% and up four to 28% as compared with the poll in late June. Both leaders’ COVID-19 ratings are a little weaker than they were in late July: Palaszczuk records 32% for very well (down five), 36% for fairly well (down eight), 16% for fairly badly (up eight) and 13% for very badly (up seven), while Morrison has 34% for very well (down six), 43% for fairly well (up three), 13% for fairly badly (up two) and 7% for very badly (up one).

• The national sample was asked about the restrictions in Victoria and Queensland, which naturally required lengthy explanation (the framing of which seems reasonable enough). For Victoria, the results were 25% too strict, 61% about right and 10% too lenient; for Queensland, 37% too strict, 53% about right and 7% too lenient.

• The balance of concern is nonetheless moving away from “moving too quickly to relax restrictions”, down 20 points since mid-July to 56%, to “moving too slowly to relax restrictions and harming economy, jobs and mental wellbeing”, up 19 points to 39%.

Today also brings the fortnightly Essential Research poll, as related by The Guardian with the full report to follow later today:

• Respondents were in favour of both Scott Morrison’s handling of COVID-19 (a 61% approval rating, up two on a fortnight ago) and Queensland state border closures he wants lifted (66% support, including 70% among Queensland respondents). Forty-seven per cent of Victorian respondents approved of the state government’s COVID-19 management, unchanged from a fortnight ago, while the rating for the New South Wales government was up seven to 67%.

• Thirty-three per cent of respondents felt tax cuts for high income earners should be brought forward from 2022, as the government has signalled it will do, while 38% believe they should be scrapped and 29% believe the government should stick to the original timetable. Twenty-one per cent believe they would be an effective economic stimulus, compared with 41% for moderately effective and 38% for not effective.

• Asked which technology they preferred for future energy generation, 70% favoured renewables and 15% gas and coal.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1081.

UPDATE: Full Essential Research poll here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,641 comments on “Newspoll and Essential Research coronavirus polling”

  1. Ha! Very funny poroti. Perhaps Hadley ain’t too bad as he did cop and lot of that from a fairly unpleasant and large section of Aussie crowds.

    I remember having a beer at a kiwi mates house in Manly. I knew a few of his kiwi friends and it was enjoyable but a kiwi girl and her Kiwi boyfriend were decidedly stand offishh. I later asked my mate if I had offended then somehow and he said ‘nah, they just hate Aussies’. WTF? I asked. ‘Since they arrived they have worked at the Steyne Hotel… every Aussie they have met so far has been a drunk f’wit’.

  2. OC; you are running around looking for someone to blame. Untethered by facts you are j’accusing all over the place in random hindsight attacks.

    There was plenty of things that went wrong. Some of the things that went wrong might even have had something to do with the spread. Your wild fantasies, confusingly mixed up with what you (allegedly) can’t imagine is just a display of ignorance.

  3. Ah the Steyne. Took my parents there many moons ago. Quite liked the place.
    ———————
    Must have been the shift they worked.

    It has been messy each time I have been there.

  4. OC:

    Lord Southcliffe eh? An interesting reference- what is your field?

    Dial M for Murdoch; unless it’s relevant.

    And I run a software company; if it is.

  5. My belief is that Thomas over egged the pudding and the subsequent prolonged outcry made a fair trial difficult. One of the cases that Thomas concentrated on didn’t look particularly negligent to me.

    Patel had the dangerous combination for a surgeon of incompetence and narcissism and was abetted by gross failures in Queensland Health medical administration but In the end he wasn’t criminally negligent. Indeed the College of Surgeons review was quite benign. I am sure you can tell me how high the bar for medical manslaughter is.

  6. My take on the Hotel Inquiry.

    The Victorian Premier wont act just yet.

    He more or less invited the Inquiry to release interim findings ahead of the final report in November in this mornings press conference. Assuming that happens Id anticipate a night of the Ministerial long knives post the interim findings. Probably Mikakos and Pakula will be held jointly accountable for the security guards and despatched for a spell on the back benches.

    That will be accompanied by massive MOG changes with the DHHS split into two departments … health and human services and public health elevated in the health hierarchy, some kind of public health supremo with elevated powers, and a NSW like decentralised localised and accountable health system.

    A welcome repudiation of the unelected, corporatised Kennett health system introduced in the late 90s. I just hope Andrews has the fortitude to push this thru.

    Oh and as aside I thought Andrews was magnificent giving evidence before the inquiry. You could almost hear the Tories quivering in fear if he goes federal..

  7. One of the blokes at the Manly house party had hiked the Milford with a roller luggage bag instead of a backpack…. to prove a point. He advised I do the cascade saddle hike and down dart river to glenorchy.
    Great advice. Had the saddle to ourselves.

  8. Ah, More commonly known than I thought.
    I was doing some research for my supervisor on Lord Northcliffe who gave significant encouragement to White Australia during a trip to Australia in the 20s.
    The relationship to Sir Keith and the subsequent nickname was of note

  9. OC:

    I can’t imagine a public health situation in which there isn’t an effective chain of governance

    The Commonwealth Biosecurity Act 2015 has the effect of placing Human Biosecurity within the Commonwealth Department of Agriculture (inter alia) , hence the chain of governance was (and still is) fundamentally broken at the top, the consequences of which were seen in the matter of the second visit of the Ruby Princess (although as noted, not in the contemporaneous visit of the Golden Princess under similar circumstances)

  10. Rossmore
    Strongly agree – If nothing else comes out of this Victoria really needs to look at its health structure. Having 86 health districts hasn’t been viable for 30 years

  11. Egt
    Disagree, The decision on quarantine was taken at national cabinet but in public health matters the States must play the primary role, if only because they have the resources.

    Each state has the power for issuing health orders including quarantine. The chain of governance in NSW was transparent. Under the Public Health Act the Minister of Health directed the Police Commissioner to take charge of all returnees

    I still don’t know what happened in Victoria

  12. Again with Ruby Princess the governance, policy and processes for the NSW Health response were in place but an inexplicable error was made be several, and one in particular, senior clinicians

  13. OC:

    The findings of The Ruby Princess were that there were no issues with governance or process but that there was an inexplicable mistake by a group of senior NSW Health doctors (and 1 in particular)
    An entirely different situation from the Victorian debacle

    This is definitely wrong. Mr Walker’s Inquiry:
    1 – Recommended the completely impractical idea that NSW (and presumably the other states) withdraw (or perhaps threaten to withdraw…) from their role in the Biosecurity Act until the Commonwealth’s IT system is amended to allow access to information for the (State) people who need it as opposed to the Commonwealth people who apparently have untrammelled access to something they don’t understand;

    2 – Concluded that it was possible for the system to work (as evidenced by the Golden Princess matter, which was subject the same sorts of transition timing issues that sank (or not) the Ruby Princess. However “it could work” is not at all the same as “no issues with governance or process” which would provide assurance that it would work, and the distinction is important (“have a go” is not good enough, except supposedly to “get a go”);

    3 – Made it completely clear that the transition window was a significant contributor to what went wrong (as highlighted by the analysis of Golden Princess, which arrived in the same window). Mr Walker then confused himself (and presumably almost everyone else) by in relation to the medical error conflating “unjustifiable” (which is true) with “inexplicable” (which is not true). My suspicion is that he thought little about the phrase, and mainly that it sounded better, as (for example) with “cease and desist” (for which, as always, one blames the French).

  14. Mexicanebeemer .. the greater good, the greater good.

    Fuck we need someone from the ALP to really stand up and lead the nation. He’s led Victoria thru a clusterfuck with grace and courage. Cant think of a better potential ALP leader since Bob Hawke

  15. The SMH Summary:

    But Mr Walker stressed that despite a range of serious mistakes by NSW Health, there were no “systemic” failures to address.
    “The mistakes made by NSW Health public health physicians were not made here because they failed to treat the threat of COVID-19 seriously,” Mr Walker wrote.
    They were not made because they were disorganised, or did not have proper processes in place to develop a plan to assess the risks posed by this disease, and how to limit those risks.
    “Those physicians relied on the best science, not pseudo-science or matters of political convenience. They were diligent, and properly organised.
    “Put simply, despite the best efforts of all, some serious mistakes were made.”

  16. Rossmore
    In all seriousness Andrews has been the best performer which makes the behavior of his colleagues disappointing when Andrews has been transparently turning up to the media everyday facing at times churlish questioning.

  17. OC wins. Zoomster would surely agree that E.G Theodore’s attempt to shift the goalposts failed on this occasion. Perhaps another reading of Julian May to sharpen up!

  18. OC:

    Egt
    Disagree, The decision on quarantine was taken at national cabinet but in public health matters the States must play the primary role, if only because they have the resources.

    One fights a war mainly with the governance one has; changing the governance of biosecurity on a weekly basis would be a very bad idea and would almost certainly make things worse.

    The governance in place is the Commonwealth Biosecurity Act 2015 and in this the Commonwealth casually asserts untrammelled power over Biosecurity (per its Constitutional ability to do so) but then regurgitates certain parts of the application of that power onto to the States. As Mr Walker found, the errant medical board (or whatever) in NSW did not appear to have any idea of the consequences of the decisions they made de facto as medical officers authorised by the Commonwealth, and this confusion is a failure of governance. It is not clear what the errant board thought would be the consequences of their decision, and this too is a failure of governance.

    BTW – the Biosecurity Act is presumably the instrument empowering Mr Joyce to exclude the Dogs of Johnny Depp (Pistol and Boo Boo) on the basis that being World’s Sexiest Man (Twice!) is not sufficient grounds to breach (animal) Biosecurity, so they have that under their belt (or at least, under the Beetrooter’s Belt)

    The decision of the National Cabinet do not alter governance. Human Biosecurity is per the act a Commonwealth activity of which the substantive elements are in practice implemented by the States. That results in a system where the States will inevitably be responsible for resourcing and operational decisions that result in failure but the Commonwealth executive can interfere at any time and for any reason (or no reason), without altering the legislation. This arrangement provides governance that is fundamentally defective (the combination of “power without responsibility” with “responsibility without power”).

    A National Cabinet decision did create the transition window, and in hindsight the window should not have existed (there should have been a UTC midnight cutover, including for ships at sea). However it is quite unlucky that one out of two (?) ships caught in the window resulted in a catastrophic failure. Incidence of 50% (?) within the window rather strongly suggests that the governance is not at vall robust to the situation raised by the window. Additionally, the errors made by various people in not understanding the window impact and its implication are a serious failure of risk management brought on by the defective governance structure.

    According to evidence provided to Mr Walker, various NSW medical and epidemiological science people seem to be have been running a sort of informal policy of “not emulating the Diamond Princess” and this (well intentioned and presumably medically preferable) pseudo-policy interacted bandt with biosecurity governance and resulted in “not emulating the Diamond Princess” but failing in a different way (including sending a plague ship to sea).

    The only leader of government who has got this right is Mr McGowan*. It is not a coincidence that he was formerly a Navy Lawyer. What they should have done with Ruby Princess (and indeed Golden Princess) is something like the WA approach: hold the ship (using the Navy if necessary), disembark (avoiding the Diamond Princess problem, using the Navy if necessary, including the hospital facilities on the LHDs, which can be very capable of required) into quarantine (at ADF bases if necessary)

    * Mr Marshall and (I think) Ms Palaszczuk did not have to face it, to be fair.

  19. MB
    Strange that so many witnesses gave evidence that they only knew what was going on after hearing it in media reports.
    Where would we have been without this churlish questioning ?
    The communication between Ministers and depts should be high on the agenda once the dust settles.

  20. ‘nah, they just hate Aussies’. WTF?
    Simon its called little country syndrome,
    When I was in Bali I was sitting next to a family of them, and they were just bagging out Australians, and I was think when would you ever hear this in reverse
    Never…

  21. Taylormade
    Amongst the legit questions there has been a number of “gota” questions like the otherday when someone noticed Andrews hair looked different only for Andrews to point out his wife had cut it sometime earlier or the questions about what did he do on his birthday because the journalist was hoping Andrews had gone out for dinner.

  22. Ah – so I’ve been complimented by one of them undos on my childish insults and by gnath declared deficient in my understanding of dependable system, on the same day.

    In respect of the the former I am of course reminded of the statement attributed to the Athenian leader Phocion:

    What asininity could I have uttered that they applaud me thus?

    and in respect of the latter:

    There was wailing and gnathing of teeth!

  23. Simon Katich @ #1601 Friday, September 25th, 2020 – 9:31 pm

    Ha! Very funny poroti. Perhaps Hadley ain’t too bad as he did cop and lot of that from a fairly unpleasant and large section of Aussie crowds.

    I remember having a beer at a kiwi mates house in Manly. I knew a few of his kiwi friends and it was enjoyable but a kiwi girl and her Kiwi boyfriend were decidedly stand offishh. I later asked my mate if I had offended then somehow and he said ‘nah, they just hate Aussies’. WTF? I asked. ‘Since they arrived they have worked at the Steyne Hotel… every Aussie they have met so far has been a drunk f’wit’.

    Oh dear. My early days in Perth were spent living next to the Herdsman Hotel in Wembley, a noted Kiwi hangout in those days. More fights than Festival Hall. If I’d have formed an opinion of Kiwis on the basis of the patrons of that pub, then, well…..

    But having met and worked with many more Kiwis in varying circumstances I came to the unsurprising conclusion that the dickhead ratio was roughly similar to Australia’s. Just like every other race, nationality, culture, whatever. Hope the haters at your mate’s house went on to work that out. Most people do.

  24. OC:

    The SMH Summary:

    But Mr Walker stressed that despite a range of serious mistakes by NSW Health, there were no “systemic” failures to address.
    “The mistakes made by NSW Health public health physicians were not made here because they failed to treat the threat of COVID-19 seriously,” Mr Walker wrote.

    There is certainly a relationship between appropriate and effective governance and “taking things seriously” in that the latter is motivation for the former and the former vehicle to institutionalize the latter.

    However, it more than possible to be “taking things seriously” without any formal governance structure, indeed historically this is the primary reason for the creation of such structures.

    They were not made because they were disorganised, or did not have proper processes in place to develop a plan to assess the risks posed by this disease, and how to limit those risks.

    It it not suggested that they lack proper processes, failed to plan to assess the risks or limit the risks. However, these things are necessary but not sufficient to achieve dependability.

    Specifically, those processes were for structural reasons not effective during the transition window in particular, as the governance structure was not appropriate (and defective in various way, including the release of a plague ship to sail the seven seas) for dealing with the role of Cruise Ships in a pandemic. As has been pointed out, the handling of the analogous situation in relation to aeroplanes is quite a bit stronger (despite the per-vehicle risk apparently being quite a bit lower). This divergence seems to have arisen from the historical fact that large-scale commercial aeroplane travel emerged after viruses became understood, whereas ships have been around for ages, although not necessarily cruising.

    “Those physicians relied on the best science, not pseudo-science or matters of political convenience. They were diligent, and properly organised.

    This has nothing to do with governance. It would have something to do with political interference overriding the governance, but there is no suggestion that that occurred (except by people asserting without evidence that it was Mr Hawke helping his family, or HillSingers, or something)

    “Put simply, despite the best efforts of all, some serious mistakes were made.”

    That is a more or less complete definition of inadequate dependability and this is well understood in engineering.

    Put even more simply: “Biosecurity in Australia is poorly engineered”

  25. Beemer:

    Like the otherday when someone noticed Andrews hair looked different only for Andrews to point out his wife had cut it sometime earlier

    An “illegal haircut” was suspected, perhaps occurring at an “illegal dinner party” to adopt the phrasing of Prof Murphy to now elevated former CMO. Gotcha!

    This has always been the level of mendacity at which these people operate:
    – Lord Southcliffe the armchair general telling the Australian Government to defend Australia by instead defending Burma;
    – the various Lords Cliffe (North and South) and that Viscount Rothermere in relation to WW1 and its aftermath at home; and
    – before that, Mr Hearst in relation to a whole raft of issues.

    They think they are the Government but they won’t put it to a vote!

  26. If we had reliable universal Internet we could provide cost effective prescription medicine robots, principally to support the objective of “Aging Wonderfully” which most people presumably favour.

    I often wonder how the oldies avoid killing themselves at least three times a year as a result of confusion! (actually, a whole lot of effort goes into establishing systems, it’s those costs that will make dispensorbots viable)

    I just mistakenly overdosed amlodipine (slightly) whilst seeking to dose pantoprazole. It was in fact a minute past midnight so perhaps technically not an overdose (but must now remember) and I didn’t take 50 tablets (WTF!), Anyway it’s easy to do. If bizarrely I die of hypotensive shock then it’s been fun!

    Additionally, I am now being virtually mauled by Modigliani Nudes from the Internet and of course I blame gnath for this.

    Finally, I have been told (by multiple clinicians) that the RAHBOTs prevent drug malfeasance at the RAH. Is this true?

  27. Taylormade:

    MB
    Strange that so many witnesses gave evidence that they only knew what was going on after hearing it in media reports.
    Where would we have been without this churlish questioning ?
    The communication between Ministers and depts should be high on the agenda once the dust settles.

    A very large fraction of the “churlish questioning” asserted facts that the churls quite clearly knew had been made up (as evidenced by their body language, tone and even grammar). This fusilade of misinformation compromised communication by sending a large number of critical people (such as the DCHO) on wild goose chases, which wasted a lot of time and certainly had an adverse effect on the response. I agree this was extremely unhelpful, but what (if anything) should be done about it?

    My own view (which may be unpopular here) is that COVID19 has sent many people slightly mad (only temporarily, one hopes) due to the combination of visceral fear and and the overturning of their world view (as RHWombat has noted) and the problem will naturally reduce to manageable proportions as the fear dissipates and people adjust their world views.

  28. E. G. Theodore @ #1638 Saturday, September 26th, 2020 – 12:54 am

    If we had reliable universal Internet we could provide cost effective prescription medicine robots, principally to support the objective of “Aging Wonderfully” which most people presumably favour.

    I often wonder how the oldies avoid killing themselves at least three times a year as a result of confusion! (actually, a whole lot of effort goes into establishing systems, it’s those costs that will make dispensorbots viable)

    I just mistakenly overdosed amlodipine (slightly) whilst seeking to dose pantoprazole. It was in fact a minute past midnight so perhaps technically not an overdose (but must now remember) and I didn’t take 50 tablets (WTF!), Anyway it’s easy to do. If bizarrely I die of hypotensive shock then it’s been fun!

    Additionally, I am now being virtually mauled by Modigliani Nudes from the Internet and of course I blame gnath for this.

    Finally, I have been told (by multiple clinicians) that the RAHBOTs prevent drug malfeasance at the RAH. Is this true?

    ‘reliable universal Internet’
    Mundo has heard Scrooter and Fletcher are working on it. Malcolm is assisting in an advisory role.

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