Miscellany: Groom by-election, Victoria poll, perceptions of US

A by-election looms in an uncompetitive seat; a poll shows Labor maintaining a lead in Victoria in spite of everything; and regard for the United States and its President falls still further.

First up, note the new-ish posts below on a YouGov poll for South Australia and Adrian Beaumont’s latest on the US race.

• A federal by-election looms for the seat of the Queensland Groom, centred on Toowoomba. This follows yesterday’s announcement by Liberal-aligned LNP member John McVeigh, the member since 2016 and previously state member for Toowoomba South from 2012,. that he will retire due to his wife’s illness. With Labor having polled 18.7% of the primary vote in the seat at the 2019 election, it seems a fairly safe bet that they will be sitting this one out. To the extent that the seat has been interesting it has been as a battleground between the Liberals and the Nationals, most recently when McVeigh’s predecessor, Ian Macfarlane, had his bid to defect from the former to the latter blocked by the Liberal National Party administration in 2015. John McVeigh’s father, Tom McVeigh, held the seat for the National/Country Party from 1972 to 1988 (it was known until 1984 as Darling Downs), but it passed to the Liberal control at the by-election following his retirement.

• Roy Morgan has an SMS poll of state voting intention in Victoria, and while the methodology may be dubious, it delivers a rebuke to the news media orthodoxy in crediting Daniel Andrews’ Labor government with a two-party lead of 51.5-48.5. The primary votes are Labor 37%, Coalition 38.5% and Greens 12.5%. The results at the 2018 election were Labor 42.9%, Coalition 35.2% and Greens 10.7%, with Labor winning the two-party vote 57.3-42.7. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1147.

• An international poll by the Pew Research Centre finds 94% of Australians believe their country has handled the pandemic well and 6% badly, whereas 85% think the United States has handled it badly and 14% well, while the respective numbers for China are 25% and 73%. Twenty-three per cent have confidence in Donald Trump to do the right think for world affairs, down from 35% last year, equaling a previous low recorded for George W. Bush in 2008. Only 33% of Australians have a favourable view of the United States, down from 50% last year, a change similar to that for all other nations surveyed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

671 comments on “Miscellany: Groom by-election, Victoria poll, perceptions of US”

  1. I have a superannuation pension with a fixed monthly payment, which comprises income plus a partial return of capital if the earnings aren’t enough. If I live long enough, the capital will run out and I go on the pension. Otherwise my heirs get what’s left over. I won’t be letting any aged care shark get their hands on it.

  2. A_E

    Excellent author of Historical late Republic Roman History. His portrayal of Cicero is outstanding, however as an alternative POV Robert Harris’s Cicero trilogy is just as good.

    Thanks for this. It is one Robert Harris series I have not read.

    Also, thanks Vote1Julia for reminding us how we used to exchange ideas on what to read on this blog.

    I have a file on Evernote entitled “Books to read”, and half of them are recommendations from the PB.

    Every tip has been excellent reading.

  3. LvT,
    Upon reading that article you will note that the Turnbulls say they didn’t know the funds they invested in were domiciled in the Caymans. But how easy would it have been for them to ask that question?

    Also, they say that they pay all tax due, in Australia. However, I believe that there must be more to it than that, otherwise why domicile the fund overseas in the Caymans?

    Maybe we should ask Angus Taylor? 🙂

  4. Steve777 says:
    Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 8:35 pm
    I have a superannuation pension with a fixed monthly payment, which comprises income plus a partial return of capital if the earnings aren’t enough. If I live long enough, the capital will run out and I go on the pension. Otherwise my heirs get what’s left over. I won’t be letting any aged care shark get their hands on it.
    _______________________
    You should talk to BB, he can get you a 15% p.a return apparently.

  5. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 8:36 pm
    LvT,
    Upon reading that article you will note that the Turnbulls say they didn’t know the funds they invested in were domiciled in the Caymans. But how easy would it have been for them to ask that question?

    Also, they say that they pay all tax due, in Australia. However, I believe that there must be more to it than that, otherwise why domicile the fund overseas in the Caymans?

    Maybe we should ask Angus Taylor?
    ___________________________
    I don’t know about Turnbully’s tax arrangements but I’d agree with PJK on tax: – basically flater lower rates of tax without deductions (to prevent the rich rorting loopholes) is the way to go.

  6. Yup. LvT swings in, has a look at what you and I have had to say, then sidles up to us with a question or comment meant to land us in a cleft stick.

    He sees himself as a “Svengali” type character, delivering his acidic cross-examinations with rapier-like wit, icy calm, and devastating insight.

    What a fucking twat.

  7. The other day, researching units for my history class, I mused that there needs to be a definitive book on the role of sheep in history.

    Did a quick on line search, and there is one…published in August 2020.

    I’ve ordered it, of course.

  8. Lars Von Trier @ #658 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 8:39 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 8:36 pm
    LvT,
    Upon reading that article you will note that the Turnbulls say they didn’t know the funds they invested in were domiciled in the Caymans. But how easy would it have been for them to ask that question?

    Also, they say that they pay all tax due, in Australia. However, I believe that there must be more to it than that, otherwise why domicile the fund overseas in the Caymans?

    Maybe we should ask Angus Taylor?
    ___________________________
    I don’t know about Turnbully’s tax arrangements but I’d agree with PJK on tax: – basically flater lower rates of tax without deductions (to prevent the rich rorting loopholes) is the way to go.

    I agree with that, so long as the Australian people no longer subsidise Private Education and Health beyond a flat rate payable to every school child and for every citizen’s health needs, with top ups only for Public School children and Public Health.

  9. You should talk to BB, he can get you a 15% p.a return apparently.

    The rate of return on most super funds is very low, many negative in the current situation, so 15% looks very high. The rate of return of, say, an allocated pension is not the annual payment divided by the capital amount but just the income portion. Most superannuants would be eating into their capital to make up their regular income.

    I have a modest share portfolio with some shares still paying dividends, so when I eventually do my tax return the Government will send me free money. I don’t need it but I won’t be giving it back. Absurd and unsustainable, as is the fact that people like me aren’t required to pay tax on the income portion of their superannuation pension (although that will be low or non-existent in this plague year).

  10. zoomstersays:
    Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 8:41 pm
    The other day, researching units for my history class, I mused that there needs to be a definitive book on the role of sheep in history.
    _____________________
    Jared Diamond’s Guns Germs and Steel has an excellent section on the importance of domesticated animals of the Fertile Crescent.

  11. …I’d agree with PJK on tax: – basically flater lower rates of tax without deductions (to prevent the rich rorting loopholes) is the way to go.

    I agree with that, so long as the Australian people no longer subsidise Private Education and Health beyond a flat rate payable to every school child and for every citizen’s health needs, with top ups only for Public Schools

    I agree.

  12. Re. Super interest rates…

    What was ~$175,000 in April (after the 2020 COVID crash) is now $196,000 in August. Not saying this is sustainable, so please don’t accuse me of that, but on the numbers that’s 21*100/175 = 12% increase in under 6 months.

    What was $200,000 in July 2019 is now $196,000, a slight decrease, but after over $16,000 has been paid out in the same period AND the COVID recession. Not bad.

    If it had been in the bank at around 0.8% for the same period it would be around $170k today, perhaps less.

    All of this for zero effort on my part and very little worry (Note: not zero worry).

    No wonder the government hates industry super funds.

  13. nath

    Sheep are far more influential than just that.

    I didn’t realise until recently that the black death was responsible for the rise of sheep and thus the industrial revolution.

    After the black death, there was a shortage of labour. The nobles had previously relied on cheap labour for the source of their wealth, and now had to look for a way to make money without it. Sheep provided the answer.

    This not only led to the enclosure system, which disrupted the old feudal system, but to the rise of industry – first through the invention of machines to spin and weave wool and then to the use of steam.

    And, of course, the settlement of Australia was largely driven by the need for more pasture …to raise sheep.

  14. RE My “faux” investigation into BB’s 15+% return on his Australian Super Balanced Fund.

    I have quoted and linked the RoR’s from Australian Super’s website, which you have chosen to ignore. Please direct me to any Fund in Australian Super that gives an RoR in anytime period of 15+% in the last 2.5 yrs. You can’t because such a high RoR doesn’t exist at Aust Super.

    I’ve noticed in your response you changed your Super from a “Balanced Fund” to a ” Fixed Stream Account”. Okay let’s look at Aust Super Choice Income aka Fixed Stream Account, quote,”Strong long-term returns – 10.90% pa average annual 10 year rate of return for the Balanced option”+
    +”Returns as at 30 June 2019. Investment returns aren’t guaranteed. Past performance isn’t a reliable indicator of future returns”. Since 30 June 2019 RoR has dropped because of the March 2020 Stock Market Crash. NO 15%+ Return.

    https://www.australiansuper.com/retirement/retirement-income-account

    Again direct me onto the Aust Super website to where you can obtain a 15%+ RoR on a Fixed Stream Account. You can’t because such a return doesn’t exist.

    Would any other Bludger who gets a 15%+ return on their Super Fund please speak up? Apparently my quoting and linking to Aust Super’s website is a faux investigation. I’m happy to be PROVEN wrong.

  15. BB

    Horrible right-winger that he was, George MacDonald Fraser had a knack for decent historical novels too.

    The Flashman series are one of my favourite ever historical novels / series. The history was meticulously researched, and they were all a fkn great read!

  16. “ Horrible right-winger that he was, George MacDonald Fraser had a knack for decent historical novels too.
    The Flashman series are one of my favourite ever historical novels / series. The history was meticulously researched, and they were all a fkn great read!”

    _______

    “Damn you Fwashman! Will you give the lie, man! Did you see me at the Battwery. At Bwalacwava!”

    “My Lord. I saw you as we rode unto the guns, and I saw you retreat. I assumed that you were at the head of your command when we were amongst the battery, but I was to preoccupied to notice. Good day to you”

    “Sir, you are a vwiper!”

    “Indeed, my Lord. But I don’t twist and turn”.

    – Conversation between Col. Flashman and Lord Cardigan outside Horse Guards during the Royal Commission into the Charge of the Light Brigade (as parsed from memory my me): Flashman and the Great Game.

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