First up, note the new-ish posts below on a YouGov poll for South Australia and Adrian Beaumont’s latest on the US race.
• A federal by-election looms for the seat of the Queensland Groom, centred on Toowoomba. This follows yesterday’s announcement by Liberal-aligned LNP member John McVeigh, the member since 2016 and previously state member for Toowoomba South from 2012,. that he will retire due to his wife’s illness. With Labor having polled 18.7% of the primary vote in the seat at the 2019 election, it seems a fairly safe bet that they will be sitting this one out. To the extent that the seat has been interesting it has been as a battleground between the Liberals and the Nationals, most recently when McVeigh’s predecessor, Ian Macfarlane, had his bid to defect from the former to the latter blocked by the Liberal National Party administration in 2015. John McVeigh’s father, Tom McVeigh, held the seat for the National/Country Party from 1972 to 1988 (it was known until 1984 as Darling Downs), but it passed to the Liberal control at the by-election following his retirement.
• Roy Morgan has an SMS poll of state voting intention in Victoria, and while the methodology may be dubious, it delivers a rebuke to the news media orthodoxy in crediting Daniel Andrews’ Labor government with a two-party lead of 51.5-48.5. The primary votes are Labor 37%, Coalition 38.5% and Greens 12.5%. The results at the 2018 election were Labor 42.9%, Coalition 35.2% and Greens 10.7%, with Labor winning the two-party vote 57.3-42.7. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1147.
• An international poll by the Pew Research Centre finds 94% of Australians believe their country has handled the pandemic well and 6% badly, whereas 85% think the United States has handled it badly and 14% well, while the respective numbers for China are 25% and 73%. Twenty-three per cent have confidence in Donald Trump to do the right think for world affairs, down from 35% last year, equaling a previous low recorded for George W. Bush in 2008. Only 33% of Australians have a favourable view of the United States, down from 50% last year, a change similar to that for all other nations surveyed.
Rex Douglas @ #604 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 3:30 pm
Has anyone spoken in support of Fitzgibbon?
hail ! i thought denial was a river in egypt. -a.v.
Leslie Williams has not been a minister since 2017 when Gladys took over. She is deputy Speaker
I can’t see her getting back into the ministry after this
Oakeshott Country @ #603 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 5:41 pm
If she was fair dinkum, she would sit on the cross bench and serve her constituents interests.
Should be interesting in Port Macquarie. Libs and Nats do not like each other, to the degree that several libs unofficially helped Oakeshott in the by election after Vaile resigned.
Will the local libs accept her?
Anthony Albanese @AlboMP
5m
More than 70 countries have signed up to net zero. Every state in Australia has signed up too. The only thing standing in the way is this Government’s ideology.
The good people of Port Macquarie will soon be served one of Gladys’s famous Roast Pork dinners.
Then she hasn’t bothered to update her Twitter entry:
This degree of incompetence by Leslie Williams is not surprising.
I suspect that Gladys Is well aware of her limitations and may not be keen to start World War Three by accepting her into the party and depriving the Nats of one of their rapidly decreasing seats. It would have been different if the Nats had gone to the cross benches
Btw her last tweet was in December 2016 – not really into social media
Leroy @ #593 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 5:08 pm
And the realisation that The Nationals would be stuffed in Port Maquarie at the next state election, so she would probably lose her seat. Smart move.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #601 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 5:33 pm
Stop pointing out that Rex Douglas is trying to shift the goalposts! 😆
One of the issues with the Nats in Port is that they are firmly in the white shoe wing of the party. Killing koalas is and always has been high ob the agenda
Oakeshott left in the early 2000s because
a. The branch was run by “Rob Jolly” (he named a local Real Estate agent)
b. They insulted his wife, who is of Islander background
Despite being Mt Druitt on sea, the ALP has zero chance of winning Port Macquarie.
There are possibilities:
The last time there was a 3 way contest in the area was when Vaile won Lyne in the early 90s. At the last count Labor was in front and the Lib was only 2 votes behind Vaile. They had an agreement not to have a recount. I suspect if it came to 3 way a lib would now win
The BCeffin Fun party was founded by a local celeb and had In the early 2010s had some showing there
AS Oakeshott showed a strong independent would kill it. Williams is no Oakeshott
An interesting time for Gladys
Good to see the Democrats reorienting their campaign strategy around the Supreme Court vacancy in a way that will resonate:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/19/us/politics/joe-biden-supreme-court-ginsburg.html
Also interesting to note that Trump may not choose ultra conservative Amy Cony Barrett but a conservative Hispanic woman from Florida, Barbara Lagoa, who works in the 11th Circuit court in Atlanta, in order to shore up his vote in Florida.
Oakeshott Country:
Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 6:01 pm
[‘Btw her last tweet was in December 2016 – not really into social media’]
It seems she’s sensible.
I see that the ramifications of the Great Koala War continue to echo through NSW.
C@tmomma:
Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 6:17 pm
I think Amy Cony Barret will be his choice, to satiate his needs.
Mavis @ #618 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 6:31 pm
He’s trying triangulation. A Hispanic female from Florida ticks a lot of boxes in a close election.
I wonder if the coal workers who voted for the Coalition in the last election have realised that Morrison has basically dumped them?
You don’t need many truck drivers or diesel mechanics to run a fracking field.
I wonder how many in the gas industry realise that Morrison will do the exact same to them if it seems politically expedient?
My stones, Honey Badgers are tough critters, even going for the genitals of really big cats.
I suspect Dotard is seriously considering elevating Judge Judy to the Supreme Court
A cynical observation on Twitter – how can such jaundiced views promulgate?
‘Based on Benson’s final observation this morning on #insiders – & how the mainstream talked up Morrison’s fake renewables & energy plans late last week – I’m expecting he’ll get a bump in the #newspoll tonight. You? #auspol
bc @ #620 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 6:43 pm
He did it so quickly and didn’t telegraph his punches, they probably don’t know what hit them yet and won’t even realise for years. Not to mention that they will probably believe that they will get the new jobs going in the new industry, not knowing, as you say, that their skills won’t be needed.
C@tmomma:
Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 6:41 pm
[‘He’s trying triangulation. A Hispanic female from Florida ticks a lot of boxes in a close election.’]
Perhaps though I truly believe he’s run out of options. I think that Biden will win in a landslide.
How does John Ruddick get a seat at the table?
Mavis @ #623 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 7:00 pm
Biden will come up short. Blind Freddie can see it coming.
Rex Douglas @ #628 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 4:59 pm
That’s an interesting point by Haines.
Renewables are generally less focus on a single point and more likely to be spread around over number of locations, unlike a conventional power station, meaning the impact of them is more widespread.
Their major limitation is access to the grid.
sprocket_ @ #620 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 6:58 pm
With the way Albo’s been taking the fight up to Scrooter and Highpants lately I wouldn’t be surprised with 60/40 Labor.
shellbell @ #632 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 5:04 pm
Government sponsored position?
‘Their major limitation is access to the grid.’
Which is why, if you’re a major power producer, you don’t like them…
I’ve long seen the way forward as fragmented, neighbourhood scale power systems.
Barney
Isn’t Ruddick anti lib from the right?
Hmmm
Dropletsimon holmes à court Microbe
@simonahac
“neither the commission nor mr liveris has made payment to [saudi-linked lobbyist who provided advice to PM’s taskforce].”
that means _someone_ else was paying for the advice.
who?
PM’s taskforce backing gas expansion received advice from lobbying firm with Saudi links
Exclusive: documents released under freedom of information also show firm tried to set up meeting with Queensland premier
theguardian.com
https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/20/pms-taskforce-backing-gas-expansion-received-advice-from-lobbying-firm-with-saudi-links?__twitter_impression=true
I’m glad this has been said:
shellbell @ #638 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 5:24 pm
He seems to be from the make the Party more democratic side of the Party which would align him with Abbott, et al on that issue.
Also he demonstrates a deep love of capitalism and seems to believe it can answer all questions.
So he seems to fit pretty well in today’s Party.
“But Farnham’s manager Glenn Wheatley, a giant of Australia’s music scene, said…”
Might have been better if Farnham had said it rather than leave it to a convicted tax cheat who served jail time
Barney
Might be but he has nothing to do with the government and does not appear to have any worthy credentials on Q&A
Re BB’s Magic Pudding Superannuation Fund.
The following Rates of Return are for the “Balanced Fund” at Australian Super
which can be verified by the following link:
https://www.australiansuper.com/compare-us/our-performance-retirement
Fin Yr 18/19 Average 9.47%
Calendar Yr 18 Average 12.01%
Fin Yr 19/20 Average 0.55%
Calendar Yr 19 Average 9.47%
Fin Yr 20/21 Average 3.18% (upto September 2020)
So I’m calling out BB’s post for what it is: Utter BS.
Even his own response exposes his untruthfulness. “The lump sum is exactly $200,000. It has returned $31,200 per annum income for 2.5 years between the two of us (which is, as I said, slightly more than 15%)”. Spot the untruthfulness? Same annual income on the same principal despite the variations in the RoR from year to year form Australian Super’s own website.
I initially gave BB the benefit of doubt on a couple of variables such as Calendar Yr versus Fin Yr or the type of fund (The most risky is the International Shares Fund and gives the best RoR average of 12.99% over the last 3 years). However, none of the Balanced Funds in any time period from 2018 come anywhere near 15+% p.a.
The best RoR is 9.47% for the Balanced Fund for the month of June in Fin Yr 18/19.
His post is BS.
I even looked at the RoRs for te Balanced Fund from Inception, last 10, 5, 3 and 1 Yr. (See below, cut & paste from Aust Super website).
INCEPTION DATE SINCE INCEPTION 10 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS 1 YEAR
Balanced 01/01/2008 6.74% 9.71% 7.95% 7.22% 0.55%
shellbell @ #638 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 7:50 pm
As you would well knnow, there are a LOT of people in Australia, some even former Prime Ministers, who avoid paying their fair share of tax by having their accounts domiciled in the Cayman Islands, for example.
So, yes, Wheatley was caught and incarcerated, but I don’t think that makes him persona non grata.
Not untruthful.
It is an Income Stream Account.
It pays each of us a fixed $1,300 per month.
$1,300 * 2 [superannuants] * 12 [months]= $31,200 to the cent.
You should think before you start accusing people of being “untruthful”.
And I don’t require you to give me “the benefit of the doubt”. It’s actually of little benefit, if your faux forensic investigation of our financial situation is anything to go by.
Who had their dosh in the Cayman Islands c@T?
Bushfire Bill says:
Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 8:19 pm
______________________________
BB , this is starting to look like a NSW Health style fiasco for you again!
CUE: Lars and his gaslighting.
You had a go at C@t first, Lars. Now me.
I think I’m going insane. I can’t take the pressure! Make it stop!
Aaaargh!
H “snapper” O,
Very late to the conversation, but I strongly second this recommendation.
All Robert Harris’s books are worth reading, and he takes particular care to accurately research the history surrounding his chosen times / subjects.
Lars Von Trier @ #643 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 8:20 pm
For a lawyer, you don’t have a very good memory. Here let me refresh your memory:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-attacks-malcolm-turnbull-over-investments-in-cayman-islands-tax-haven-20151014-gk8pg9.html
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 8:30 pm
Lars Von Trier @ #643 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 8:20 pm
Who had their dosh in the Cayman Islands c@T?
For a lawyer, you don’t have a very good memory. Here let me refresh your memory:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-attacks-malcolm-turnbull-over-investments-in-cayman-islands-tax-haven-20151014-gk8pg9.html
______________________________________-
Thanks c@t!
Bushfire Bill @ #645 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 8:27 pm
Yup. LvT swings in, has a look at what you and I have had to say, then sidles up to us with a question or comment meant to land us in a cleft stick.
Not happening.
Horrible right-winger that he was, George MacDonald Fraser had a knack for decent historical novels too.
Cf…