Miscellany: Groom by-election, Victoria poll, perceptions of US

A by-election looms in an uncompetitive seat; a poll shows Labor maintaining a lead in Victoria in spite of everything; and regard for the United States and its President falls still further.

First up, note the new-ish posts below on a YouGov poll for South Australia and Adrian Beaumont’s latest on the US race.

• A federal by-election looms for the seat of the Queensland Groom, centred on Toowoomba. This follows yesterday’s announcement by Liberal-aligned LNP member John McVeigh, the member since 2016 and previously state member for Toowoomba South from 2012,. that he will retire due to his wife’s illness. With Labor having polled 18.7% of the primary vote in the seat at the 2019 election, it seems a fairly safe bet that they will be sitting this one out. To the extent that the seat has been interesting it has been as a battleground between the Liberals and the Nationals, most recently when McVeigh’s predecessor, Ian Macfarlane, had his bid to defect from the former to the latter blocked by the Liberal National Party administration in 2015. John McVeigh’s father, Tom McVeigh, held the seat for the National/Country Party from 1972 to 1988 (it was known until 1984 as Darling Downs), but it passed to the Liberal control at the by-election following his retirement.

• Roy Morgan has an SMS poll of state voting intention in Victoria, and while the methodology may be dubious, it delivers a rebuke to the news media orthodoxy in crediting Daniel Andrews’ Labor government with a two-party lead of 51.5-48.5. The primary votes are Labor 37%, Coalition 38.5% and Greens 12.5%. The results at the 2018 election were Labor 42.9%, Coalition 35.2% and Greens 10.7%, with Labor winning the two-party vote 57.3-42.7. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1147.

• An international poll by the Pew Research Centre finds 94% of Australians believe their country has handled the pandemic well and 6% badly, whereas 85% think the United States has handled it badly and 14% well, while the respective numbers for China are 25% and 73%. Twenty-three per cent have confidence in Donald Trump to do the right think for world affairs, down from 35% last year, equaling a previous low recorded for George W. Bush in 2008. Only 33% of Australians have a favourable view of the United States, down from 50% last year, a change similar to that for all other nations surveyed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

671 comments on “Miscellany: Groom by-election, Victoria poll, perceptions of US”

Comments Page 13 of 14
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  1. Rex Douglas @ #604 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 3:30 pm

    An alternative govt must have climate policies consistent with science and the threat of global warming.Meek capitulation to the denialism of the Coalition will not deliver govt.Labor must reject ⁦@fitzhunter⁩ panicked attempt at self preservation. https://t.co/bcg9tjtiUn— Doug Cameron (@DougCameron51) September 20, 2020

    I challenge any Labor partisan to disagree with Doug.

    Has anyone spoken in support of Fitzgibbon?

  2. Leslie Williams has not been a minister since 2017 when Gladys took over. She is deputy Speaker
    I can’t see her getting back into the ministry after this

  3. Should be interesting in Port Macquarie. Libs and Nats do not like each other, to the degree that several libs unofficially helped Oakeshott in the by election after Vaile resigned.
    Will the local libs accept her?

  4. Anthony Albanese @AlboMP
    5m
    More than 70 countries have signed up to net zero. Every state in Australia has signed up too. The only thing standing in the way is this Government’s ideology.

  5. Oakeshott Country says:
    Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 5:41 pm
    Leslie Williams has not been a minister since 2017 when Gladys took over. She is deputy Speaker
    I can’t see her getting back into the ministry after this

    Then she hasn’t bothered to update her Twitter entry:

    Leslie Williams
    @LeslieW_MP
    Follow
    NSW Minister for Early Childhood Education, Aboriginal Affairs & Assistant Minister for Education & Member for Port Macquarie.

  6. This degree of incompetence by Leslie Williams is not surprising.
    I suspect that Gladys Is well aware of her limitations and may not be keen to start World War Three by accepting her into the party and depriving the Nats of one of their rapidly decreasing seats. It would have been different if the Nats had gone to the cross benches

  7. Leroy @ #593 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 5:08 pm

    Statement from Leslie Williams (NSW Minister for Early Childhood Education, Aboriginal Affairs & Assistant Minister for Education & Member for Port Macquarie) defecting from the NSW Nationals
    to the NSW Liberals after the blow up over koala policy.

    https://twitter.com/lizziedaniels/status/1307572166016212993

    And the realisation that The Nationals would be stuffed in Port Maquarie at the next state election, so she would probably lose her seat. Smart move.

  8. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #601 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 5:33 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #604 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 3:30 pm

    An alternative govt must have climate policies consistent with science and the threat of global warming.Meek capitulation to the denialism of the Coalition will not deliver govt.Labor must reject ⁦@fitzhunter⁩ panicked attempt at self preservation. https://t.co/bcg9tjtiUn— Doug Cameron (@DougCameron51) September 20, 2020

    I challenge any Labor partisan to disagree with Doug.

    Has anyone spoken in support of Fitzgibbon?

    Stop pointing out that Rex Douglas is trying to shift the goalposts! 😆

  9. One of the issues with the Nats in Port is that they are firmly in the white shoe wing of the party. Killing koalas is and always has been high ob the agenda
    Oakeshott left in the early 2000s because
    a. The branch was run by “Rob Jolly” (he named a local Real Estate agent)
    b. They insulted his wife, who is of Islander background

  10. Despite being Mt Druitt on sea, the ALP has zero chance of winning Port Macquarie.
    There are possibilities:
    The last time there was a 3 way contest in the area was when Vaile won Lyne in the early 90s. At the last count Labor was in front and the Lib was only 2 votes behind Vaile. They had an agreement not to have a recount. I suspect if it came to 3 way a lib would now win
    The BCeffin Fun party was founded by a local celeb and had In the early 2010s had some showing there
    AS Oakeshott showed a strong independent would kill it. Williams is no Oakeshott
    An interesting time for Gladys

  11. Good to see the Democrats reorienting their campaign strategy around the Supreme Court vacancy in a way that will resonate:

    Still, Biden campaign officials said on Saturday that they did not see even a Supreme Court vacancy and the passions it will inevitably inflame as reason to fundamentally reorient the campaign’s approach. Mr. Biden has consistently led the president nationally and in polls of battleground states throughout the summer.

    For Democrats, the focus on health care — overlaid by the pandemic — is a rerun of the successful playbook that helped power the party’s takeover of the House of Representatives in 2018 and a fidelity to Mr. Biden’s steadfast promise to defend Obamacare, a pledge that helped him navigate through the 2020 primary.

    …Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic leader, exhorted his Democratic colleagues to communicate the real-world stakes of a conservative-dominated court, urging them to make the case that another Trump pick would jeopardize the health law.

    “Health care, protections for pre-existing conditions, women’s rights, gay rights, workers’ rights, labor rights, voting rights, civil rights, climate change and so much else is at risk,” Mr. Schumer told his colleagues, according to a person on the call.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/19/us/politics/joe-biden-supreme-court-ginsburg.html

    Also interesting to note that Trump may not choose ultra conservative Amy Cony Barrett but a conservative Hispanic woman from Florida, Barbara Lagoa, who works in the 11th Circuit court in Atlanta, in order to shore up his vote in Florida.

  12. Oakeshott Country:

    Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 6:01 pm

    [‘Btw her last tweet was in December 2016 – not really into social media’]

    It seems she’s sensible.

  13. I wonder if the coal workers who voted for the Coalition in the last election have realised that Morrison has basically dumped them?

    You don’t need many truck drivers or diesel mechanics to run a fracking field.

    I wonder how many in the gas industry realise that Morrison will do the exact same to them if it seems politically expedient?

  14. A cynical observation on Twitter – how can such jaundiced views promulgate?

    ‘Based on Benson’s final observation this morning on #insiders – & how the mainstream talked up Morrison’s fake renewables & energy plans late last week – I’m expecting he’ll get a bump in the #newspoll tonight. You? #auspol

  15. If gas had chosen itself there would be no need for the Government to come in and build it. In reality, there’s only one type of energy technology lowering power bills and creating jobs in my regional electorate: renewables.— Helen Haines MP (@helenhainesindi) September 19, 2020

  16. bc @ #620 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 6:43 pm

    I wonder if the coal workers who voted for the Coalition in the last election have realised that Morrison has basically dumped them?

    You don’t need many truck drivers or diesel mechanics to run a fracking field.

    I wonder how many in the gas industry realise that Morrison will do the exact same to them if it seems politically expedient?

    He did it so quickly and didn’t telegraph his punches, they probably don’t know what hit them yet and won’t even realise for years. Not to mention that they will probably believe that they will get the new jobs going in the new industry, not knowing, as you say, that their skills won’t be needed.

  17. C@tmomma:

    Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 6:41 pm

    [‘He’s trying triangulation. A Hispanic female from Florida ticks a lot of boxes in a close election.’]

    Perhaps though I truly believe he’s run out of options. I think that Biden will win in a landslide.

  18. Mavis @ #623 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 7:00 pm

    C@tmomma:

    Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 6:41 pm
    C@tmomma:

    [‘He’s trying triangulation. A Hispanic female from Florida ticks a lot of boxes in a close election.’]

    Perhaps though I truly believe he’s run out of options. I think that Biden will win in a landslide.

    Biden will come up short. Blind Freddie can see it coming.

  19. Rex Douglas @ #628 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 4:59 pm

    If gas had chosen itself there would be no need for the Government to come in and build it. In reality, there’s only one type of energy technology lowering power bills and creating jobs in my regional electorate: renewables.— Helen Haines MP (@helenhainesindi) September 19, 2020

    That’s an interesting point by Haines.

    Renewables are generally less focus on a single point and more likely to be spread around over number of locations, unlike a conventional power station, meaning the impact of them is more widespread.

    Their major limitation is access to the grid.

  20. sprocket_ @ #620 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 6:58 pm

    A cynical observation on Twitter – how can such jaundiced views promulgate?

    ‘Based on Benson’s final observation this morning on #insiders – & how the mainstream talked up Morrison’s fake renewables & energy plans late last week – I’m expecting he’ll get a bump in the #newspoll tonight. You? #auspol

    With the way Albo’s been taking the fight up to Scrooter and Highpants lately I wouldn’t be surprised with 60/40 Labor.

  21. ‘Their major limitation is access to the grid.’

    Which is why, if you’re a major power producer, you don’t like them…

    I’ve long seen the way forward as fragmented, neighbourhood scale power systems.

  22. Hmmm

    Dropletsimon holmes à court Microbe
    @simonahac
    “neither the commission nor mr liveris has made payment to [saudi-linked lobbyist who provided advice to PM’s taskforce].”

    that means _someone_ else was paying for the advice.

    who?
    PM’s taskforce backing gas expansion received advice from lobbying firm with Saudi links
    Exclusive: documents released under freedom of information also show firm tried to set up meeting with Queensland premier
    theguardian.com

    https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/20/pms-taskforce-backing-gas-expansion-received-advice-from-lobbying-firm-with-saudi-links?__twitter_impression=true

  23. I’m glad this has been said:

    John Farnham says he’s not the voice of Melbourne’s anti-lockdown protests
    By Ashleigh McMillan
    The long-time manager of John Farnham has come out against the use of You’re The Voice by anti-lockdown protesters, who sung the tune during a small flash mob at Chadstone Shopping Centre on Sunday.

    Around 50 protesters came together outside the Coles supermarket only long enough to sing a rendition of the Australia classic at 1pm, before dispersing.

    But Farnham’s manager Glenn Wheatley, a giant of Australia’s music scene, said the song had been co-opted by demonstrators against the wishes of the legendary singer-songwriter.

    “I’m personally concerned people will hear the song, and think John Farnham is personally endorsing these protests, and in this case it’s not right,” Mr Wheatley said.

  24. shellbell @ #638 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 5:24 pm

    Barney

    Isn’t Ruddick anti lib from the right?

    He seems to be from the make the Party more democratic side of the Party which would align him with Abbott, et al on that issue.

    Also he demonstrates a deep love of capitalism and seems to believe it can answer all questions.

    So he seems to fit pretty well in today’s Party.

  25. “But Farnham’s manager Glenn Wheatley, a giant of Australia’s music scene, said…”

    Might have been better if Farnham had said it rather than leave it to a convicted tax cheat who served jail time

  26. Re BB’s Magic Pudding Superannuation Fund.

    The following Rates of Return are for the “Balanced Fund” at Australian Super
    which can be verified by the following link:
    https://www.australiansuper.com/compare-us/our-performance-retirement
    Fin Yr 18/19 Average 9.47%
    Calendar Yr 18 Average 12.01%
    Fin Yr 19/20 Average 0.55%
    Calendar Yr 19 Average 9.47%
    Fin Yr 20/21 Average 3.18% (upto September 2020)

    So I’m calling out BB’s post for what it is: Utter BS.
    Even his own response exposes his untruthfulness. “The lump sum is exactly $200,000. It has returned $31,200 per annum income for 2.5 years between the two of us (which is, as I said, slightly more than 15%)”. Spot the untruthfulness? Same annual income on the same principal despite the variations in the RoR from year to year form Australian Super’s own website.
    I initially gave BB the benefit of doubt on a couple of variables such as Calendar Yr versus Fin Yr or the type of fund (The most risky is the International Shares Fund and gives the best RoR average of 12.99% over the last 3 years). However, none of the Balanced Funds in any time period from 2018 come anywhere near 15+% p.a.
    The best RoR is 9.47% for the Balanced Fund for the month of June in Fin Yr 18/19.
    His post is BS.
    I even looked at the RoRs for te Balanced Fund from Inception, last 10, 5, 3 and 1 Yr. (See below, cut & paste from Aust Super website).

    INCEPTION DATE SINCE INCEPTION 10 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS 1 YEAR
    Balanced 01/01/2008 6.74% 9.71% 7.95% 7.22% 0.55%

  27. shellbell @ #638 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 7:50 pm

    “But Farnham’s manager Glenn Wheatley, a giant of Australia’s music scene, said…”

    Might have been better if Farnham had said it rather than leave it to a convicted tax cheat who served jail time

    As you would well knnow, there are a LOT of people in Australia, some even former Prime Ministers, who avoid paying their fair share of tax by having their accounts domiciled in the Cayman Islands, for example.

    So, yes, Wheatley was caught and incarcerated, but I don’t think that makes him persona non grata.

  28. Spot the untruthfulness? Same annual income on the same principal despite the variations in the RoR from year to year form Australian Super’s own website.

    Not untruthful.

    It is an Income Stream Account.

    It pays each of us a fixed $1,300 per month.

    $1,300 * 2 [superannuants] * 12 [months]= $31,200 to the cent.

    You should think before you start accusing people of being “untruthful”.

    And I don’t require you to give me “the benefit of the doubt”. It’s actually of little benefit, if your faux forensic investigation of our financial situation is anything to go by.

  29. Bushfire Bill says:
    Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 8:19 pm
    ______________________________
    BB , this is starting to look like a NSW Health style fiasco for you again!

  30. CUE: Lars and his gaslighting.

    You had a go at C@t first, Lars. Now me.

    I think I’m going insane. I can’t take the pressure! Make it stop!

    Aaaargh!

  31. H “snapper” O,

    for those looking for a very good book based on history, I recommend Pompeei by Robert Harris. Memorable.

    Very late to the conversation, but I strongly second this recommendation.

    All Robert Harris’s books are worth reading, and he takes particular care to accurately research the history surrounding his chosen times / subjects.

  32. Bushfire Bill @ #645 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 8:27 pm

    CUE: Lars and his gaslighting.

    You had a go at C@t first, Lars. Now me.

    I think I’m going insane. I can’t take the pressure! Make it stop!

    Aaaargh!

    Yup. LvT swings in, has a look at what you and I have had to say, then sidles up to us with a question or comment meant to land us in a cleft stick.

    Not happening.

  33. All Robert Harris’s books are worth reading, and he takes particular care to accurately research the history surrounding his chosen times / subjects.

    Horrible right-winger that he was, George MacDonald Fraser had a knack for decent historical novels too.

    Cf…

    FLASHMAN, Harry Paget, brigadier-general, V.C. [Victoria Cross], K.C.B. [Knight Commander of the Bath], K.C.I.E. [Knight Commander, Order of the Indian Empire]: Chevalier, Legion of Honour; Order of Maria Theresa, Austria; Order of the Elephant, Denmark (temporary); U.S. Medal of Honor; San Serafino Order of Purity and Truth, 4th class; born May 5, 1822, son of H. Buckley Flashman, Esq., Ashby, and Hon. Alicia Paget; married Elspeth Rennie Morrison, daughter of Lord Paisley, one son, one daughter. Educated Rugby School, 11th Hussars, 17th Lancers. Served Afghanistan 1841-2 (medals, thanks of Parliament); chief of staff to H.M. [His Majesty] James Brooke, Rajah of Sarawak, Batang Luper expedition, 1844; military adviser with unique rank of sergeant-general to H.M. [Her Majesty] Queen Ranavalona of Madagascar, 1844-5; Sutleg campaign, 1845-6 (Ferozeshah, Sobraon, envoy extraordinary to Maharani Jeendan, Court of Lahore); political adviser to Herr (later Chancellor Prince) von Bismarck, Schleswig-Holstein, 1847-8; Crimea, staff (Alma, Sevastopol, Balaclava), prisoner of war, 1854; artillery adviser to Atalik Ghazi, Syr Daria campaign, 1855; India, Sepoy Mutiny, 1857-8, diplomatic envoy to H.R.H. [His Royal Highness] the Maharani of Jhansi, trooper 3rd Native Cavalry, Meerut, subsequently attached Rowbotham’s Mosstroopers, Cawnpore (Lucknow, Gwalior, etc., V.C.); adjutant to Captain John Brown, Harper’s Ferry, 1859; China campaign 1860, political mission to Nanking, Taiping Rebellion, political and other services, Imperial Court, Pekin; U.S. Army (major, Union forces, 1862, colonel [staff], Army of the Confederacy, 1863); aide-de-camp to H.I.M. [His Imperial Majesty] Maximilian, Emperor of Mexico, 1867; interpreter and observer Sioux campaign, U.S., 1875-6 (Camp Robinson conference, Little Big Horn, etc.); Zulu War, 1879 (Isandhlwana, Rorke’s Drift); Egypt 1882 (Kassassin, Tel-el-Kebir; personal bodyguard to H.I.M. Franz Josef, Emperor of Austria, 1883; Sudan 1884-5 (Khartoum); Pekin Legations, 1900. Traveled widely in military and civilian capacities, among them supercargo, merchant marine (West Africa), agriculturist (Mississippi valley), wagon captain and hotelier (Santa Fe Trail); buffalo hunter and scout (Oregon Trail); majordomo (India), prospector (Australia); trader and missionary (Solomon Islands, Fly River, etc.), lottery supervisor (Manila), diamond broker and horse coper (Punjab) [coper, defined by Merriam-Webster Dictionary: a horse dealer; especially : a dishonest one], deputy marshal (U.S.), occasional actor and impersonator. Honorable member of numerous societies and clubs, including Sons of the Volsungs (Strackenz), Mimbreno Apache Copper Mines band (New Mexico), Khokand Horde (Central Asia), Kit Carson’s Boys (Colorado), Brown’s Lambs (Maryland), M.C.C. [Marylebone Cricket Club], White’s and United Service [two gentlemen’s clubs] (London, both resigned), Blackjack [another gentleman’s club] (Batavia). Chairman, Flashman & Bottomley, Ltd.; director, British Opium Trading Co.; governor, Rugby School; honorary president Mission for Reclamation of Reduced Females.
    Publications: Dawns and Departures of a Soldier’s Life; Twixt Cossack and Cannon; The Case Against Army Reform.
    Recreations: oriental studies, angling, cricket (performed first recorded “hat trick,” wickets of Felix Pilch, Mynn, for 14 runs, Rugby Past and Present v. Kent, Lord’s, 1842; five for 12, Mynn’s Casuals v. All-England XI, 1843.
    Address: Gandamack Lodge, Ashby, Leicestershire

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