Miscellany: Groom by-election, Victoria poll, perceptions of US

A by-election looms in an uncompetitive seat; a poll shows Labor maintaining a lead in Victoria in spite of everything; and regard for the United States and its President falls still further.

First up, note the new-ish posts below on a YouGov poll for South Australia and Adrian Beaumont’s latest on the US race.

• A federal by-election looms for the seat of the Queensland Groom, centred on Toowoomba. This follows yesterday’s announcement by Liberal-aligned LNP member John McVeigh, the member since 2016 and previously state member for Toowoomba South from 2012,. that he will retire due to his wife’s illness. With Labor having polled 18.7% of the primary vote in the seat at the 2019 election, it seems a fairly safe bet that they will be sitting this one out. To the extent that the seat has been interesting it has been as a battleground between the Liberals and the Nationals, most recently when McVeigh’s predecessor, Ian Macfarlane, had his bid to defect from the former to the latter blocked by the Liberal National Party administration in 2015. John McVeigh’s father, Tom McVeigh, held the seat for the National/Country Party from 1972 to 1988 (it was known until 1984 as Darling Downs), but it passed to the Liberal control at the by-election following his retirement.

• Roy Morgan has an SMS poll of state voting intention in Victoria, and while the methodology may be dubious, it delivers a rebuke to the news media orthodoxy in crediting Daniel Andrews’ Labor government with a two-party lead of 51.5-48.5. The primary votes are Labor 37%, Coalition 38.5% and Greens 12.5%. The results at the 2018 election were Labor 42.9%, Coalition 35.2% and Greens 10.7%, with Labor winning the two-party vote 57.3-42.7. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1147.

• An international poll by the Pew Research Centre finds 94% of Australians believe their country has handled the pandemic well and 6% badly, whereas 85% think the United States has handled it badly and 14% well, while the respective numbers for China are 25% and 73%. Twenty-three per cent have confidence in Donald Trump to do the right think for world affairs, down from 35% last year, equaling a previous low recorded for George W. Bush in 2008. Only 33% of Australians have a favourable view of the United States, down from 50% last year, a change similar to that for all other nations surveyed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

671 comments on “Miscellany: Groom by-election, Victoria poll, perceptions of US”

Comments Page 10 of 14
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  1. KayJay @ #447 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 10:16 am

    Player One
    Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 9:50 am
    Comment #434

    This may/not be of interest 👇👇

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/09/17/is-it-the-end-of-the-oil-age\\

    Worth a look.

    Yes indeed. Thanks, KayJay.

    This bit is worth highlighting …

    Today Chinese firms produce 72% of the world’s solar modules, 69% of its lithium-ion batteries and 45% of its wind turbines. They also control much of the refining of minerals critical to clean energy, such as cobalt and lithium. Instead of a petrostate, the People’s Republic may become an “electrostate”. In the past six months it has announced investments in electric-car infrastructure and transmission, tested a nuclear plant in Pakistan and considered stockpiling cobalt.

    China has a genuine claim to becoming a renewables “Superpower”. They must just quietly giggle to themselves when we say similar things about Australia.

    A perilous few decades lie ahead.

    Amen to that! 🙁

  3. frednk @ #446 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 10:15 am

    Must say the Liberal have moved the coal wedge to gas beautifully, all done within a week. Parliament has seen it’s last lump of coal. Beyond impressed at the Greens military precision in falling behind he new Liberal/Green Wedge.

    I don’t really understand what you think the Greens have to do with this, but I agree that this is a gold-plated wedge.

    The Coalition are now claiming to adopt the very same solution that Labor had the opportunity to adopt, but didn’t – because of the coal-hugging gibbons. Of course, the Coalition are not actually adopting the policy – but they are claiming they are, and that’s probably going to be enough to get them over the line.

    The real irony, of course, is how Labor will be portrayed even if they now adopt the genuine version of this policy.

    Labor appear to have missed the boat, and all because of their internal bickering.

  4. In the all blather, I don’t remember (folksy) “Speersy” asking the (folksy) “PM” about his secret Covid Committee for Gas.

    Well blow me down, and apologies for the long out take – couldn’t rule a line under it, each paragraph usurping the previous –

    The manufacturing taskforce that recommended underwriting a huge gas expansion to help drive Australia’s Covid-19 recovery was receiving “pro bono” advice from a lobbyist firm with links to the Saudi government and gas companies.

    Civil society groups have repeatedly raised questions about conflicts of interest, a lack of transparency and weak governance structures surrounding the body handpicked by Scott Morrison to lead Australia’s post-coronavirus economic recovery, the national Covid-19 commission.

    The commission’s manufacturing taskforce, led by Andrew Liveris, a former Dow Chemical executive and current Saudi Aramco board member, came under fire earlier this year when leaked documents showed it wanted the government to underwrite a massive expansion of gas.

    New freedom of information documents released to Greenpeace show that the taskforce, a publicly funded body, was being helped in its work by a firm named Dragoman, which lists Liveris as the chair of its international advisory board.

    Dragoman is a registered lobbyist firm headed by Tom Harley, a former BHP executive and vice-president of the Liberal party, which counts the chair of gas retailer Alinta Energy, Mark Johnson, among its long list of counsellors.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/20/pms-taskforce-backing-gas-expansion-received-advice-from-lobbying-firm-with-saudi-links

  5. Morrison’s gov has absolutely no interest in conserving the environment, so I found the pic of him grabbing “Hope the Wombat (named for the occasion?)” to make a political point nauseating. She didn’t look as if she was enjoying being swung from side to side. Anyone used to handling pets would have supported her better. Was that how he held children?

  9. Jaeger says:
    Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 11:03 am

    Thank interesting videos.

    No worries! I’m glad you enjoyed them, frednk – I hope others do too.

    The photography is beautiful.

  10. Evangelicals vs many women:

    The death of a Supreme Court justice so close to the November election was all but certain to thrust America’s culture wars back to the center of the political debate in a year dominated by the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and the renewed push for racial justice following the death of George Floyd.

    That battle has the ability to breathe new energy into the electorate — activating conservative Republicans who have grown weary of President Donald Trump but view the election as a chance to shape the court, while also mobilizing millions of female voters who are already infuriated by Trump’s degradation of women and would view his ability to nominate three Supreme Court justices in a single term as an assault on their values.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/19/politics/supreme-court-ginsburg-senate-2020/index.html

  11. The empire is starting to strike back.

    No prizes for guessing the identity of the ‘journo’ who has made a formal complaint to NSW Police – who I’m sure will investigate the complaint with all the thoroughness they applied to investigating Gus Taylor …

    I do like the quotes ascribed to the anonymous Labor insider advising people to stick clear of Shanks. … such courage.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/how-to-solve-a-problem-like-friendlyjordies-politicians-debate-new-age-commentator-20200918-p55x4a.html

    #JeSuisJordie

  12. 14 additional cases in Victoria today

    The Hallam cluster was 34 yesterday, it’s 40 today

    Nearly at single digits

    The campaign to provide effective PPE to health workers has cranked up. It’s only taken 8 months of pretending everything is A-OK

  13. Barney:

    Will we see an outbreak of farting in the Chambers?

    The Lump of Coal has been banished, never to return. As the next Stunt de Jour, the Prime Minister has his best men working to how to light his farts in the Chamber.

    It will go off with a bang!

  14. Shorter SMH 9-Fax article on Jordan Shanks…

    “WE decide what’s newsworthy and what’s not!”

    They accuse Shanks of friendly interviews with politicians, defamatory statements, crude language, partisanship, racism, mockery and invasion of privacy.

    This is presumably as opposed to the friendly interviews of politicians, defamatory statements, crude language, partisanship, racism, mockery and invasion of privacy used by their employee Ray Hadley on the radio station they own, 2GB (and also by their recent employee, Alan Jones).

    They also accuse Shanks of being in a (public) street outside the residence of a journalist (in circumstances where neither the journalist nor the location were identified by Shanks), which is nothing at all like Hadley, a few years back, loitering in the street outside the bathroom of David Thomson while Thomson’s wife was in the shower.

    They also imply (but do not outright claim) that Shanks caused Barilaro’s episode of mental ill-health (if that is indeed what it is), putting to one side that it may just be possible that Barilaro might be a bit unhinged because he is one of the most hated individuals in the NSW government due to his personal choice in attempting to blow up his own government over restrictions to land developers’ rights.

    Sounds like the SMH is jealous.

    I would think they just added another 10% to Jordie’s audience.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/how-to-solve-a-problem-like-friendlyjordies-politicians-debate-new-age-commentator-20200918-p55x4a.html

  16. They accuse Shanks [any Newscorp outlet] of friendly interviews with politicians, defamatory statements, crude language, partisanship, racism, mockery and invasion of privacy.

    Fits better.

    Why pick on small fry?

    EDIT: forgot about 2GB, owned by 9. It fits double.

  18. Salon regular Lucian Truscott has a dig at Trumps priorities :

    Consider, if you will, Donald Trump’s hair: 200,000 are dead — but it’s perfect

    Everything else about him — as a president, as a human being — is a total disaster. But the hair is amazing

    That hair is the star of the Trump show. Other than the ubiquitous billowing blue suit, Trump’s hair is the most consistent thing about him. I mean, look at that snowdrift atop Mount Trump: It looks like someone dumped a tequila sunrise on his head and then swooped and sprayed and blow-dried the resulting glop into a kind of double-reverse cantilever combover. You have to wonder how long it takes to construct the thing in the morning, how the hell it’s actually done, how many times a day it has to be re-sprayed and tediously teased into shape, with its gleaming duck-tails and prideful collar-brushing flip in the back. An elaborate confection of ego and insecurity and hormonal loss and want and need — you almost have to conclude it’s the thing he really cares about.

    At his rallies, his crowds are kept back from the stage at a distance that is safe for Trump — but not for them, as they crowd together, trying to get closer to the man who’s telling them it’s OK if they get sick, because the virus that is infecting their children, their brothers and sisters, their parents, their co-workers and their neighbors — the virus that’s killing them at a rate of nearly 1,000 Americans a day, day after day, week after week — is going to “just go away, you’ll see.”

    Donald Trump doesn’t care about them, but the man they came to see will have perfect hair, a swoop of blondish-pinkish-goldish-whiteish cotton candy on his head that never varies, because Donald Trump wants it that way. His hair is the one thing in his life he really cares about, other than cheating at golf and stealing other people’s money and putting his hands all over women who are not his wife.

    https://www.salon.com/2020/09/19/consider-if-you-will-donald-trumps-hair-200000-are-dead–but-its-perfect/

  23. 2 cases in NSW
    1 Overseas in quarantine
    1 a taxi driver linked to Liverpool Hospital. NSW Health reporting that COVID Safe app has been used to track contacts over a 10 day period stretching over SW Sydney and South Coast

    Likely that there have been no true positive community unknown sources in 13 days.

  24. The weak and pathetic excuses from Saint Scotty and the Marketingettes are just becoming more and more ridiculous childish. Rather than admit that they screwed it with the idiot Covid app they have try and bury it under “…on the grounds it could risk public safety and harm commonwealth-state relations.” bullshit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/20/covidsafe-app-government-refuses-to-release-numbers-citing-public-safety

  25. How many children start Primary School each year in the ACT?

    Back of the envelope:

    ACT Population: about 400,000
    Assume 1/80 start school per annum —> 5,000

    Plant 5,000 trees p.a. means it will take 200 years to plant a million, unless the Liberals plant more trees than just these.

    Anyway, it’s just a stunt.

  28. Bell Debates
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    As part of our 30th anniversary celebrations, Bell Shakespeare is hosting a series of debates that address and tackle ideas from Shakespeare’s plays, in the context of our modern world.

    The premiere event, streamed live from Sydney’s Carriageworks, will kick the series off with a debate on the timely and all-too-resonant declaration from As You Like It: ‘We have seen better days.’

    A stellar line up of debaters, Benjamin Law, Jan Fran, Jane Caro AM, Miriam Corowa, Jonathan Biggins and Jess Scully will form two teams and go head-to-head in a debate that will address, challenge and (hopefully) inspire the way we see our world today.

    Join us online to watch the first debate in the Bell Debates series, live at 7.30pm AEST on 24 September 2020.

    We encourage you to register for a free ticket so that we can send you an email reminder with a link to watch the live stream.

    https://www.bellshakespeare.com.au/whats-on/digital/bell-debates/

  30. ”…on the grounds it could risk public safety and harm commonwealth-state relations.”

    On the “avoidance checking” I mentioned earlier, this can only mean that “Covid safe is not being used because it doesn’t work”.

    As for the grounds of “risk to public safety” and “harm to commonwealth-state relations”, read “on the grounds that the actual truth would make us look like total idiots”.

  31. Sounds like Project Lincoln are gonna go hell for leather against Lindsey Graham.

    Steve Schmidt@SteveSchmidtSES·
    1h
    This is an advantageous event for Trump and Senate Republicans. I believe this is wrong. In fact, I believe this will be the final political nail in the coffin for Trump and the GOP majority. It will certainly be fatal for Gardener and Collins. Lindsey Graham’s astounding 2/

    Steve Schmidt@SteveSchmidtSES·
    1h
    dishonesty, treachery and deceit will be prosecuted from tonight until the end of the election by @ProjectLincoln. It may be that South Carolina voters will send Washington’s lowest and least principled man not named Trump back to the Capitol for 6 more years. They will send 3/

    Steve Schmidt@SteveSchmidtSES·
    1h
    Him back without his mask. When we are done there will be no illusions about Lindsey Graham. Our broken politics will never heal with men like @LindseyGrahamSC in power. He is a liar and a self interested man who cannot be trusted. He does not care about the people he is 4/

    Steve Schmidt@SteveSchmidtSES·
    1h
    asking to vote for him. He cares about power and proximity to power. It is a narcotic for him and it has poisoned his soul. There will be times when voters may not agree with a vote taken by Senator @harrisonjaime but be he won’t be an ass kissing sycophant who stands for nothing

  32. Shorter SMH 9-Fax article on Jordan Shanks…

    “WE decide what’s newsworthy and what’s not!”

    Shades of the grogsgamut/Greg Jericho outing – “he’s not one of us!”
    He is now (The Guardian) – karma’s a bitch. 🙂

  34. Steve777 @ #475 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 9:51 am

    How many children start Primary School each year in the ACT?

    Back of the envelope:

    ACT Population: about 400,000
    Assume 1/80 start school per annum —> 5,000

    Plant 5,000 trees p.a. means it will take 200 years to plant a million, unless the Liberals plant more trees than just these.

    Anyway, it’s just a stunt.

    Yep, that was about what I came up with, but in a different way.

    There are 150 schools in the ACT, so assuming 2/3 were Primary Schools, that gives you 100 schools.

    If 50 students start each year that’s 5,000.

    So, 1,000,000 trees in about 200 years. 😆

  35. Kronomex @ #474 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 9:50 am

    The weak and pathetic excuses from Saint Scotty and the Marketingettes are just becoming more and more ridiculous childish. Rather than admit that they screwed it with the idiot Covid app they have try and bury it under “…on the grounds it could risk public safety and harm commonwealth-state relations.” bullshit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/20/covidsafe-app-government-refuses-to-release-numbers-citing-public-safety

    Real reason:

    On the grounds that it will embarrass the shit out of my Government.

  36. I know it’s not very big, but I thought the election was for the ACT, not just Canberra.

    The ACT has some rural population but I don’t think that there are any towns or villages that aren’t regarded as suburbs of Canberra.

  37. guytaur @ #483 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 10:06 am

    Good Morning

    Crikey has a couple of articles that highlight the need for Labor to embrace the UBI concept. It removes the wedge the LNP are wielding against Labor big time. Especially the Rundle article. Paywalled of course.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2020/09/18/gig-economy-saves-the-jobs-market/

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2020/09/17/gas-driven-energy-plan/

    There is more than one way to skin a cat!

    Why can’t it be done by working in the current social security framework?

  38. Mr Fitzgibbon told Sky News if Labor is to appeal to rural and regional Australians, they need to avoid backing far-Left climate policy.

    “We don’t need these people consistently and constantly pulling us to the far-Left,” he said.

    “This is the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union in bed with green Left-wing groups who are anti-coal … (and) we can’t have a manufacturing sector without gas.

    https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6192705011001

    Why is climate policy ‘far left’ ?

    This bloke is killing Labor.

  41. Steve777 @ #486 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 10:10 am

    I know it’s not very big, but I thought the election was for the ACT, not just Canberra.

    The ACT has some rural population but I don’t think that there are any towns or villages that aren’t regarded as suburbs of Canberra.

    Yeah, it’s just the National Parks and Forests and we know how much they care about them.

  42. Rex Douglas @ #488 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 10:12 am

    Mr Fitzgibbon told Sky News if Labor is to appeal to rural and regional Australians, they need to avoid backing far-Left climate policy.

    “We don’t need these people consistently and constantly pulling us to the far-Left,” he said.

    “This is the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union in bed with green Left-wing groups who are anti-coal … (and) we can’t have a manufacturing sector without gas.

    https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6192705011001

    Why is climate policy ‘far left’ ?

    This bloke is killing Labor.

    Because that’s where the Greens have positioned their Party.

  43. How true.

    Tea Pain@TeaPainUSA·
    10h
    200,000 Americans die of COVID. Republicans do nothin’.

    1 Justice passes away. They mobilize like it’s wartime.

  45. The ACT has some rural population but I don’t think that there are any towns or villages that aren’t regarded as suburbs of Canberra.

    Queanbeyan, Yass, Bungendore etc. etc.

    A hard border isn’t practical, but it would really send a message.

  46. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #492 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 12:15 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #488 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 10:12 am

    Mr Fitzgibbon told Sky News if Labor is to appeal to rural and regional Australians, they need to avoid backing far-Left climate policy.

    “We don’t need these people consistently and constantly pulling us to the far-Left,” he said.

    “This is the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union in bed with green Left-wing groups who are anti-coal … (and) we can’t have a manufacturing sector without gas.

    https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6192705011001

    Why is climate policy ‘far left’ ?

    This bloke is killing Labor.

    Because that’s where the Greens have positioned their Party.


  47. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 12:12 pm

    Mr Fitzgibbon
    ….

    This bloke is killing Labor.

    Mr Fitzgibbon is away with the fairies, but he constrained by wiser heads and a system that can deal with a wide range of views. When it comes to the environment he has not come close to doing the damage that has been done by the Greens.

  48. frednk @ #497 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 12:21 pm


    Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 12:12 pm

    Mr Fitzgibbon
    ….

    This bloke is killing Labor.

    Mr Fitzgibbon is away with the fairies, but he constrained by wiser heads and a system that can deal with a wide range of views. When it comes to the environment he has not come close to doing the damage that has been done by the Greens.

    He is the heart beat of the Greens

  50. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #499 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 12:26 pm

    Rex,

    Don’t you think the Greens’ policies in general are on the left of the political spectrum?

    Why do you bring up the Greens ..?

    My comment referred to Fitzgibbon’s reference to climate policy as ‘far left’.

    Climate policy is an issue of logic – nothing to do with left/right.

    Why are you seemingly defending Fitzgibbon’s idiocy ???

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