Miscellany: Groom by-election, Victoria poll, perceptions of US

A by-election looms in an uncompetitive seat; a poll shows Labor maintaining a lead in Victoria in spite of everything; and regard for the United States and its President falls still further.

First up, note the new-ish posts below on a YouGov poll for South Australia and Adrian Beaumont’s latest on the US race.

• A federal by-election looms for the seat of the Queensland Groom, centred on Toowoomba. This follows yesterday’s announcement by Liberal-aligned LNP member John McVeigh, the member since 2016 and previously state member for Toowoomba South from 2012,. that he will retire due to his wife’s illness. With Labor having polled 18.7% of the primary vote in the seat at the 2019 election, it seems a fairly safe bet that they will be sitting this one out. To the extent that the seat has been interesting it has been as a battleground between the Liberals and the Nationals, most recently when McVeigh’s predecessor, Ian Macfarlane, had his bid to defect from the former to the latter blocked by the Liberal National Party administration in 2015. John McVeigh’s father, Tom McVeigh, held the seat for the National/Country Party from 1972 to 1988 (it was known until 1984 as Darling Downs), but it passed to the Liberal control at the by-election following his retirement.

• Roy Morgan has an SMS poll of state voting intention in Victoria, and while the methodology may be dubious, it delivers a rebuke to the news media orthodoxy in crediting Daniel Andrews’ Labor government with a two-party lead of 51.5-48.5. The primary votes are Labor 37%, Coalition 38.5% and Greens 12.5%. The results at the 2018 election were Labor 42.9%, Coalition 35.2% and Greens 10.7%, with Labor winning the two-party vote 57.3-42.7. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1147.

• An international poll by the Pew Research Centre finds 94% of Australians believe their country has handled the pandemic well and 6% badly, whereas 85% think the United States has handled it badly and 14% well, while the respective numbers for China are 25% and 73%. Twenty-three per cent have confidence in Donald Trump to do the right think for world affairs, down from 35% last year, equaling a previous low recorded for George W. Bush in 2008. Only 33% of Australians have a favourable view of the United States, down from 50% last year, a change similar to that for all other nations surveyed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

671 comments on “Miscellany: Groom by-election, Victoria poll, perceptions of US”

Comments Page 11 of 14
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  1. Steve

    Nailed it.

    Turnbull is far left. We had Sky News After Dark telling us that incessantly.

    Barney

    See Murdoch description of Turnbull.
    First point is to not let Murdoch make your definitions of the political spectrum.

    The ABC which is not Labor friendly has a better guide than Murdoch’s narrative with its Compass Votes metric. Despite all its flaws.

  2. Barney, Steve777

    Canberra and ACT tend to be used interchangeably. Interestingly it’s “Canberra Liberals” and “ACT Labor”. Presumably the Liberals assume the Nationals will look after rural lessees and the few villages in the ACT, except that nobody has told them there are no Nationals!

    The million trees thing is only one of the mish-mash of Liberals promises for the election. Their slogan “Lower taxes, better services” is only lacking the third part “magic pudding”.

  4. Rex Douglas @ #500 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 10:30 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #499 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 12:26 pm

    Rex,

    Don’t you think the Greens’ policies in general are on the left of the political spectrum?

    Why do you bring up the Greens ..?

    My comment referred to Fitzgibbon’s reference to climate policy as ‘far left’.

    Climate policy is an issue of logic – nothing to do with left/right.

    Why are you seemingly defending Fitzgibbon’s idiocy ???

    Because it’s what allows people like Fitzgibbon to make lazy and ridiculous statements like the one you quoted.

    Climate policy shouldn’t be a matter of Left and Right, but because the Greens hold more Left wing positions on other issues it has made it easy for supporters of fossil fuels to label action as such.

    The other problem here is that those other policies make it more difficult for Centre-Right voters wishing to support them, doing so.

  5. In the bruised days after Labor’s shock national election defeat last May, union boss Steve Murphy, a Maitland boy, thought long and hard about what went wrong – and came to a very different conclusion than the Hunter Valley’s most prominent ALP figure, Joel Fitzgibbon.

    Murphy, then the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union state secretary and from Monday its national leader, believed Labor had not failed because it had favoured action on climate change over jobs.

    “We failed because we allowed the bosses to turn the workers and environmentalists against each other to their own benefit,” the former fitter and turner said this week.

    Murphy’s view – one that is far from universally shared – was if Labor could solve the culture war over coal and emissions in regions like the Hunter it could campaign on both climate action and job creation.

    From this conviction, an alliance formed between Murphy and Felicity Wade, a lifelong environmentalist and political activist.[/blockquote]

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/environment/climate-change/union-boss-and-environmentalist-bury-the-hatchet-in-the-hunter-20200918-p55x41.html

    Here we go…

  6. On the political spectrum and class war culture.

    It’s imperative for Labor to see the truth. Morrison has moved the LNP to the left of Labor in some respects just like Trump did to Clinton. Yes they are about to abandon it by cutting JobSeeker and JobKeeper.

    The reality is that LNP has been running a government that is to the Left of Kevin Rudd’s GFC response. Now they are trying to pretend that reality does not count. This is why Labor will win the next election.

    Labor has so much to gain by wedging the LNP with a UBI. It even turns Joel Fitzgibbon to an electoral asset not a drag and split over supporting fossil fuels. Give the workers certainty.

    Remember homelessness was in the impossible basket. Today what homelessness ? our right wing governments joined Labor states in ending homelessness overnight.

  7. guytaur @ #501 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 10:32 am

    Steve

    Nailed it.

    Turnbull is far left. We had Sky News After Dark telling us that incessantly.

    Barney

    See Murdoch description of Turnbull.
    First point is to not let Murdoch make your definitions of the political spectrum.

    The ABC which is not Labor friendly has a better guide than Murdoch’s narrative with its Compass Votes metric. Despite all its flaws.

    ????????????

  8. guytaur @ #507 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 10:43 am

    On the political spectrum and class war culture.

    It’s imperative for Labor to see the truth. Morrison has moved the LNP to the left of Labor in some respects just like Trump did to Clinton. Yes they are about to abandon it by cutting JobSeeker and JobKeeper.

    The reality the LNP has been running a government that is to the Left of Kevin Rudd’s GFC response. Now they are trying to pretend that reality does not count. This is why Labor will win the next election.

    Labor has so much to gain by wedging the LNP with a UBI. It even turns Joel Fitzgibbon to an electoral asset not a drag and split over supporting fossil fuels. Give the workers certainty.

    Remember Homelessness was in the impossible basket. Today what Homelessness our right wing governments joined Labor states in ending homelessness overnight.

    😆 😆 😆

  9. “ Based on the comments, if it was meant as a hit job then I think 9fax just hit themselves in the nuts with a sledgehammer.”

    Yes. I just went back and read the comments. Astonishing levels of support for Jordie.

  11. Fitzgibbons war with the AMWU/LEAN has to be addressed by Albanese.

    This is a moment for Albanese to show logic and leadership – disendorse Fitzgibbon !

  12. Barney

    You are wrong. You support the Murdoch narrative every day saying facts cannot be used by the left just because the right defines science as “Left”.

    There is nothing wrong with Centre Left. A description of Northern Europe.

    Demonising the word left destroys political analysis forcing you to accept the right is best narrative. Giving us the extreme right.

    You are doing that not Rex.

  13. Trump promises America we will never see him again if Biden wins

    President Donald Trump insisted he would withdraw from public life should he lose the 2020 presidential election.

    Trump, who has been a public figure since he started appearing in tabloid stories in the 1980s, made the promise during a campaign rally North Carolina on Saturday.

    “If I lose to him, I don’t know what I’m going to do,” Trump said, in comments that will stoke fears he may try to hold onto power regardless of the will of the voters.

    “I will never speak to you again, you’ll never see me,” he vowed.

    Trump was quickly ridiculed for his remarks. Here’s some of what people were saying:

    IS THAT A PROMISE? asking for 65 million friends

    No, his trial will be televised.

    He’s just teasing us. There’s absolutely no chance Trump could stand to not be the center of attention for more than five minutes. He lives for the attention.

    Dream as we might, he is NEVER going away.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/09/trump-promises-america-we-will-never-see-him-again-if-biden-wins/

  14. On a day like today, after Insiders, this is just the info we need.

    @qikipedia
    ·
    Sep 18
    In 2003, a museum in Southend abandoned plans to exhibit a 20,000 year-old, four-foot long woolly mammoth’s tusk found in a garden in Leigh-on-Sea after a second geologist identified it as a length of Victorian drainage pipe.

  15. guytaur @ #516 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 10:51 am

    Barney

    You are wrong. You support the Murdoch narrative every day saying facts cannot be used by the left just because the right defines science as “Left”.

    There is nothing wrong with Centre Left. A description of Northern Europe.

    Demonising the word left destroys political analysis forcing you to accept the right is best narrative. Giving us the extreme right.

    You are doing that not Rex.

    ????????

  17. @qikipedia

    In 2003, a museum in Southend abandoned plans to exhibit a 20,000 year-old, four-foot long woolly mammoth’s tusk found in a garden in Leigh-on-Sea after a second geologist identified it as a length of Victorian drainage pipe.

    LOL

    On the flip side, there’s Lion Man:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion-man

    Edit: Google “Raiders of the Lost Past” with Janina Ramirez.

  19. Rex
    The problem with that argument is the ALP did better where the bosses actually live than they did where the bosses don’t and the investment community is not pro-coal or anti-renewable energy as seen by Zali’s win in Warringah.

  20. I rarely post @ PB these days as I’ve been finding it harder and harder “fossicking” to find
    the real gems of insight and information that were so common in bygone days. Some of my fav gems have been recommended authors of my favourite reading genre, historical fiction.
    Other gems have been financial & investment insights, so when I saw the following post by one PB’s doyen bloggers, it piqued my attention.

    “Bushfire Bill says:
    Saturday, September 19, 2020 at 11:14 pm
    Because if you are in a situation that you are earning $18,000 interest PA you have a serious amount of money set aside.

    We’ve been earning 15%-plus p/a off one of our accounts invested quite conservatively (just a regular “Balanced Investment” profile) with Australian Super for several years now. “Cash in the Bank” has been the absolute worst way to invest money in recent years.

    This account took a 10% hit in March-April, but has clawed back 8% of it since, to be not far below par.”

    In a financial world of negative interest rates and many national economies in Recession, I thought, WOW, a ROI of “not far below par ..of 15+% pa” is bloody good, almost too good to be true. So I decided to fact check at Australian Super.

    https://www.australiansuper.com/compare-us/our-performance

    The average annual return over 2011 – 2020 time period is 8.77% for the Balanced Fund. (The return is 9.42% for the High Growth Fund and the best return is 11.46% for the risky International Shares Fund).
    The “clawed back 8% of it since [March-April], to be not far below par” turns out to be 2.94% for the Balanced Fund for the time period of June – September 17th. Nowhere near “not far below par” of 15+%.
    So BB’s post is BS.

    I found BB’s further comment, “I have friends who ride their computers day-in, day-out, are always on Commsec (or its equivalent) buying, selling or just checking shares. They go to AGMs, get hot under the collar at supposed mismanagement, fire off letters to boards of directors and generally micro-manage their money to the Nth degree. Most achieve a lower or only slightly higher ROA than we do, for FAR more stress” highly risible.
    The financially illiterate leading the financially illiterate. You only need a few minutes on Commsec each day. You may spend a couple hours daily on the net doing Due Diligence, researching companies that have a high probability of being “10 baggers” (ie 1000% gainers) but that is your choice in risk exposure (which can be managed) for a much higher RoR. Otherwise, why have a portfolio emulating Fund Managers (who just follow the stock indices anyway) and waste all that time stressfully chasing mythical 15+% returns.

  24. Good if true:

    Jim Dabakis Utah State Senator
    @JimDabakis
    ·
    Sep 19
    BREAKING: A high-level Romney insider tells me Mitt Romney has committed to not confirming a Supreme Court nominee until after Inauguration Day 2021. #Mittrevenge #utpol

  25. vote1julia

    I’ve retreated to old novels, written in a distant era, for comfort. Currently I’m reading a Peter Wimsey (Dorothy Sayers) for the sheer contrast with modern life. Also, I checked the interest from Australian Super, in case it is higher than the one I’m receiving. Like all others, it’s very variable.

  26. sprocket_ @ #478 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 11:59 am

    Bell Debates
    Shakespeare’s work spans the highs and lows of human existence, from hilarious comedies to dark tragedies, and his views are just as witty and perceptive today as they were four hundred years ago.

    As part of our 30th anniversary celebrations, Bell Shakespeare is hosting a series of debates that address and tackle ideas from Shakespeare’s plays, in the context of our modern world.

    The premiere event, streamed live from Sydney’s Carriageworks, will kick the series off with a debate on the timely and all-too-resonant declaration from As You Like It: ‘We have seen better days.’

    We encourage you to register for a free ticket so that we can send you an email reminder with a link to watch the live stream.

    https://www.bellshakespeare.com.au/whats-on/digital/bell-debates/

    Thanks for the tip off sprocket.

    Now, for a Sunday afternoon, also in celebration of 30 years of BellShakespeare, you could a lot worse than spend 15 minutes with John Bell and the insights he has into The Bard and his works since he, Bell, become enamoured with him aged 15. If you just wanted the best bits delivered with arresting clarity and meaning, do yourself a favour:

    https://youtu.be/ReUxKS4b-1k

  27. lizzie

    I think I now have all the Peter Wimsey novels (and some of the short stories!). I used to re read them at least once a year.

  28. …however, I would strongly recommend you get a copy of “The Enchanted April”. I think you’d love it – there’s a nice film to go with it, too.

  29. zoomster

    It’s a great pleasure to read an “educated” writer in the old sense, who isn’t afraid to include French or Latin words. Although Miss Sayers could be a bit patronising to her readers!

  30. Ye gods, a new bullshit three word bastardisation from Saint Scotty of the Marketing; “pro-boosting aggregate demand” from his before 5pm Friday knock off time…I meant Sunday, interview on Insiders this morning (I always wait until it’s available on iview later in the day).

  36. Hey lizzie,

    Thanks for the recommendation. I’m going to my local library this afternoon to see which Wimsey novel I can get. I’ve been reading a number of Lee Child’s Jack Reacher books lately. I like a really good thriller. I love novels set in Ancient Rome. One of my fav’s Steven Saylor, Gordianus the Finder series. A kind of Roman sleuth. I had to study Cicero’s “Pro Roscio Amerino” for the Latin Text for the HSC many decades ago. Saylor’s version “Roman Blood” would have been a great thrilling context read. But unfortunately written way after my high school days :))
    My all time fav Ancient Rome era novel is “Eagle in the Snow” by Wallace Breem.

  37. How long are Labor going to put up with this level of disunity …

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/20/labor-rift-as-joel-fitzgibbon-defies-party-on-medium-term-target-for-cutting-emissions

    Despite the fact Butler and Fitzgibbon are very obviously at loggerheads, Fitzgibbon said their differences were around emphasis rather than substance.

    “There’s not much we disagree on,” he said. “Sometimes in the Labor party it becomes a matter of emphasis. Some might say we are not opposed to gas, when I say we very much support gas.

    “Mark Butler understands we need to get more gas out of the ground.”

    Fitzgibbon’s front running of the policy deliberation around the medium-term emissions reduction target has some internal support, but it is also infuriating many colleagues.

    Over the weekend he was critical that the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union (AMWU) had formed common positions with the Labor Environmental Action Network (Lean).

    He said Labor did not need ginger groups like Lean “constantly pulling us to the left” and declared “we can’t have a manufacturing industry without gas”.

    A number of Labor MPs blasted him for adopting that stance. Pat Conroy, Butler’s junior in the climate change portfolio, and who, like Fitzgibbon, hails from the Hunter coal region of New South Wales, said the AMWU was absolutely correct to hold common positions with Lean.

    “The opportunity to revitalise manufacturing through cheap renewable energy is just one reason why Labor is arguing so strongly for an economic recovery centred on investing in renewables firmed with batteries and pumped hydro,” Conroy said.

    You can be forgiven for wondering whether the gibbons want Labor to lose the next election 🙁

  38. Heaven forbid that Gladys might admit that NSW has an emergency situation. All is in complete control compared to Victoria, of course.

    Premier Gladys Berejiklian has announced the state of New South Wales will join the federal Pandemic Leave Disaster Payment scheme. The scheme provides $1500 to people living in NSW who can’t earn an income because they must self-isolate, quarantine or care for someone who has Covid-19, and who doesn’t have sick leave.

    “If you’re someone who has a job and you don’t have any leave left, you will be paid $1500 for that fortnight you have to isolate,” Berejiklian said.

    “We didn’t want to declare a State of Emergency in NSW which is what the criteria was to get the pandemic leave. I wrote to the prime minister saying ‘please can you support us in that way?’, and he very gladly accepted.”

  39. Player One @ #537 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 2:43 pm

    How long are Labor going to put up with this level of disunity …

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/20/labor-rift-as-joel-fitzgibbon-defies-party-on-medium-term-target-for-cutting-emissions

    Despite the fact Butler and Fitzgibbon are very obviously at loggerheads, Fitzgibbon said their differences were around emphasis rather than substance.

    “There’s not much we disagree on,” he said. “Sometimes in the Labor party it becomes a matter of emphasis. Some might say we are not opposed to gas, when I say we very much support gas.

    “Mark Butler understands we need to get more gas out of the ground.”

    Fitzgibbon’s front running of the policy deliberation around the medium-term emissions reduction target has some internal support, but it is also infuriating many colleagues.

    Over the weekend he was critical that the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union (AMWU) had formed common positions with the Labor Environmental Action Network (Lean).

    He said Labor did not need ginger groups like Lean “constantly pulling us to the left” and declared “we can’t have a manufacturing industry without gas”.

    A number of Labor MPs blasted him for adopting that stance. Pat Conroy, Butler’s junior in the climate change portfolio, and who, like Fitzgibbon, hails from the Hunter coal region of New South Wales, said the AMWU was absolutely correct to hold common positions with Lean.
    PM’s taskforce backing gas expansion received advice from lobbying firm with Saudi links
    Read more

    “The opportunity to revitalise manufacturing through cheap renewable energy is just one reason why Labor is arguing so strongly for an economic recovery centred on investing in renewables firmed with batteries and pumped hydro,” Conroy said.

    You can be forgiven for wondering whether the gibbons want Labor to lose the next election 🙁

    The disunity seems to be a battle between the AWU/CFMEU fossil fuel boosters and the AMWU.

    This is Labor being torn apart.

    Albanese, as leader, MUST resolve this one way or the other.

  40. lizzie @ #542 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 12:47 pm

    Heaven forbid that Gladys might admit that NSW has an emergency situation. All is in complete control compared to Victoria, of course.

    Premier Gladys Berejiklian has announced the state of New South Wales will join the federal Pandemic Leave Disaster Payment scheme. The scheme provides $1500 to people living in NSW who can’t earn an income because they must self-isolate, quarantine or care for someone who has Covid-19, and who doesn’t have sick leave.

    “If you’re someone who has a job and you don’t have any leave left, you will be paid $1500 for that fortnight you have to isolate,” Berejiklian said.

    “We didn’t want to declare a State of Emergency in NSW which is what the criteria was to get the pandemic leave. I wrote to the prime minister saying ‘please can you support us in that way?’, and he very gladly accepted.”

    Notice that they announced it with cases approaching zero.

    If that remains the case it won’t cost much.

    Shame they didn’t do it 6 months ago.

  41. Australia Post

    I have received a message suggesting that if I haven’t received my parcel (posted on 3/9 and “expected on 11/9) by the 20th Sep, I should get “contact so that we can investigate”.

    These are plants, so may not survive. They had to travel from Outer East Melbourne to Outer East Melbourne, about an hour by car. No doubt they’ve gone to Brisbane!!

  42. lizzie @ #545 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 12:55 pm

    Australia Post

    I have received a message suggesting that if I haven’t received my parcel (posted on 3/9 and “expected on 11/9) by the 20th Sep, I should get “contact so that we can investigate”.

    These are plants, so may not survive. They had to travel from Outer East Melbourne to Outer East Melbourne, about an hour by car. No doubt they’ve gone to Brisbane!!

    Shame they weren’t triffids, they could have walked to your place in that time. 🙂

  43. Barney

    A friend ordered a part for their TV and wondered how long it would take by mail. Don’t worry, replied the company, we use Uber Eats for delivery. !!

  45. lizzie @ #547 Sunday, September 20th, 2020 – 1:03 pm

    Barney

    A friend ordered a part for their TV and wondered how long it would take by mail. Don’t worry, replied the company, we use Uber Eats for delivery. !!

    I took my microwave in to be fixed in January and got it back in August. 🙂

    A part had to come from China and the factory was shut due to COVID.

  46. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 12:43 pm

    In the bruised days after Labor’s shock national election defeat last May, union boss Steve Murphy, a Maitland boy, thought long and hard about what went wrong

    I agree with Murphy. His views are no more than orthodox in WA.

  48. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 2:51 pm

    Albanese, as leader, MUST resolve this one way or the other.

    What Labor must do is ignore political arsonists such as the editors of Rexology.

  49. “ One of my fav’s Steven Saylor, Gordianus the Finder series.”

    Excellent author of Historical late Republic Roman History. His portrayal of Cicero is outstanding, however as an alternative POV Robert Harris’s Cicero trilogy is just as good.

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