Something for everybody

Great polling for Labor in Victoria, catastrophic polling for Labor in Victoria, and a mixed bag of federal seat polling — but seemingly a very clear picture in Western Australia.

Scattered accounts of opinion polling ahead of what looks like being a lean week for it, with both Newspoll and Essential Research entering an off-week in their respective cycles:

• Some seriously mixed signals coming out of Victoria, starting with Roy Morgan, who have published results of an SMS poll conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 2325 that records a 70-30 favourable split for Daniel Andrews’ performance as Premier. Respondents also split 63-37 against allowing restaurants, hotels and cafes to provide table service, 54-46 against ending the rule limiting travel to within 5 kilometres of a person’s home, 63-37 against an end to the 9pm curfew, although there is a 59-41 split in favour of allowing Melbourne residents to visit the homes of immediate family members, and a 76-24 split in favour of state government compensation for businesses forced to close.

• The contrast is provided by a Herald Sun report in Liberal internal polling by MediaReach of five marginal Victorian state seats, showing devastating swings against Labor. The Liberals are credited with leads of 70.6-29.4 in Bayswater (50.4-49.6 to Labor at the 2018 election), 68.0-32.0 in Hawthorn (50.4-49.6 to Labor), 54.5-45.5 in Monbulk (58.6-41.4), 54.9-45.1 in Mount Waverley (51.8-48.2) and 57.9-42.1 in South Barwon (54.6-45.4). Daniel Andrews is nonetheless said to have preferred premier leads over Michael O’Brien of 46-37 in South Barwon, 43-37 in Mount Waverley and 39-29 in Monbulk, with O’Brien leading 46-33 in Hawthorn and 37-33 in Bayswater. The polling was conducted on Tuesday from samples of between 523 and 694.

• Labor-linked firm Redbridge Group has published polling from three Labor-held federal seats, which collectively suggest Labor has gone backwards since last year’s election. Including results for a follow-up prompt for the initially undecided, and applying preference flows from the last election, I estimate the two-party results at 54-46 to the LNP in Lilley, where Labor’s margin is 0.6%; 54.7-45.3 to Liberal in Hunter, where the margin is 3.0%; but 53-47 to Labor in Corangamite, improving on their existing 1.1% margin. Whereas One Nation came close to making the final two-party preference count in Hunter last year, this poll has them a distant third with 9.5%. The poll also presented respondents in Hunter with Liberal as the Coalition response option, whereas the seat was contested by the Nationals at the election. The poll was conducted from August 20-22 from samples of 1000 to 1200 per electorate. Pollster Kos Samaras notes on Twitter that their state-level polling is “not reporting the same trends”, and suggests the firm will publish polling over the coming days casting doubt over the aforementioned MediaReach findings from Victoria.

The West Australian published further results on Monday from last week’s Painted Dog Research poll, which credited Mark McGowan with a 91% approval rating, this time on Liberal leader Liza Harvey. Harvey was found to have an approval rating of just 10%, down nine since June, with disapproval unchanged at 37%. The balance included 36% neither satisifed nor dissatisfied and 10% for don’t know – I’m not sure where that leaves the 7% balance. The poll was conducted last week from a sample of 837.

• I took part in a podcast this week with Ben Raue at The Tally Room, together with former Australian Electoral Commission official Michael Maley, in which a highly wonk-ish discussion was had about electoral redistributions.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,679 comments on “Something for everybody”

  1. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 3:47 pm
    Briefly

    Unlike you I don’t declare people are idlers and whingers in a personal attack.

    This is the truth. You are an idler and a smart-arsed whinging pretender and imposter. Go look in the mirror. You do nothing but urge others to do things you yourself will not do…things you can’t be fucked doing. You are lazy. You are a big mouth. You are a fraud.

  2. Briefly/Non

    Your personal attacks just do you no credit at all.

    You are certainly not getting me to stop commenting.

    Oh dear. People might see fossil fuels for the danger they are.

  3. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 3:55 pm
    Briefly/Non

    Your personal attacks just do you no credit at all.

    You are certainly not getting me to stop commenting.

    I could not care less whether you comment or not. You are very free with your personal assessments of others. In my case, you are wrong. Completely fucking wrong. I have a right of reply. I’m exercising it. You are a Green fraud.

  4. Rex Douglassays:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 1:02 pm

    The fossil fuel cartel has ownership of the peoples parliament and it continues down the road of economic, environmental and social madness.

    that’s about it, Rex Douglas: corporate coup by stealth. prime minister rudd was standing up to it, but they pressed for him to be removed, and he was. -a.v.

  5. alfred venison @ #2511 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 4:00 pm

    Rex Douglassays:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 1:02 pm

    The fossil fuel cartel has ownership of the peoples parliament and it continues down the road of economic, environmental and social madness.

    that’s about it, Rex Douglas: corporate coup by stealth. prime minister rudd was standing up to it, but they pressed for him to be removed, and he was. -a.v.

    Rudd could’ve pulled the DD trigger, but he was paralysed with fear. A very poor leader.

  6. I think it is difficult for us here in Australia to fully comprehend US politics. I can never see an organisation such as the “Lincoln Project” or “Republicans against Trump” existing.
    The Liberal or Labor parties will not tolerate dissent. Even criticising the leader is grounds for expulsion (although just to be clear, criminal fraud and consorting with criminals is perfectly OK).
    If I was in the US I would probably be a democrat but then again, up until the 60’s it was the Republicans that were the progressive anti slavery party. LBJ and Nixon basically caused a bit of a seismic switch.

  7. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 4:00 pm
    Briefly

    Yeah right that’s convincing.

    I have no expectation of convincing you of anything. You are completely susceptible to your own prejudices and are incapable of reflection, learning, inquiry, introspection, empathy, reason or contemplation. You’re just another dogmatist who think they know everything.

  8. From Twitter, commenting on Liveris at Press Club.

    Once the good Mr Liveris claimed there were two sides to every story when it came to the murder of Khashoggi by Mr Liveris’ Saudi business partner, l kinda threw stuff at the tele, before turning him off.

  9. Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 4:04 pm
    Non @ #2510 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 4:00 pm

    Rex of course is the ultimate enabler of the LNP and all who sail with them. They are the bad oyster on the platter.

    I’m you conscience … your true friend.

    Bollocks. You are a sidekick for the LNP…a protagonist against all the values to which you feign a subscription. You embody the dysfunction that keeps the LNP in power.

  10. GoldenSmaug @ #2515 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 4:05 pm

    I think it is difficult for us here in Australia to fully comprehend US politics. I can never see an organisation such as the “Lincoln Project” or “Republicans against Trump” existing.
    The Liberal or Labor parties will not tolerate dissent. Even criticising the leader is grounds for expulsion (although just to be clear, criminal fraud and consorting with criminals is perfectly OK).
    If I was in the US I would probably be a democrat but then again, up until the 60’s it was the Republicans that were the progressive anti slavery party. LBJ and Nixon basically caused a bit of a seismic switch.

    The Liberal and Labor parties have been commandeered by shonks spivs frauds and puppets of social terrorists.
    The peoples parliament has been stolen – and it’s only the people who can take it back for their own betterment.

  11. Hi William,

    I thought the above was interesting, especially the seventh key. Would you concur? I think its fair.

    Best,

    Lars

    The national polls are not anywhere near within three points. It beats me why you think you sound clever here, as clearly you do.

  12. Non @ #2519 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 4:08 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 4:04 pm
    Non @ #2510 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 4:00 pm

    Rex of course is the ultimate enabler of the LNP and all who sail with them. They are the bad oyster on the platter.

    I’m you conscience … your true friend.

    Bollocks. You are a sidekick for the LNP…a protagonist against all the values to which you feign a subscription. You embody the dysfunction that keeps the LNP in power.

    Give in to me – you’ll find the inner peace you crave.

  13. For labor to oppose the Morrison gas plan there must be something of substance to oppose. Otherwise labor will end up like the greens. Howling at the full moon.

    What new measures did Morrison announce yesterday that have any substance to them ? I am not talking about previous announced announcables or “ new “ gas hubs that currently exist or some lettuce leaf maybe we will do this slap to private investors that may or may not eventuate in 10 months time or smoke and mirrors but real measures.

    Answer ? Sweet F A.

    It is all a diversion, a look over here and away from aged care, jobkeeper and jobseeker, Australians stuck overseas etc etc etc.

    The result ? The greens, their enablers and the constantly stressed and agitated twitter army have been drawn towards the bright baubles and away from actual,happening now,,real life issues and are wetting:themselves with happiness that they have something with which to attack labor.

    Dissecting the Morrison bullshit from yesterday ? They could not care less.

  14. ————
    A couple of you out there could suffer to tone it down a little.
    ————
    I did. You should have seen the first draft.

    I occasionally vote Green. I have a lot of sympathy for the plight of Green political parties. But the attitude of ‘give me everything I want or the cute little bunny gets it’ is outrageous when you have no chance of getting what you want and a good chance of delivering the consequence.

  15. Is it that time already ❓

    How time flies. Why just a moment ago BK put considerable effort into his Dawn Patrol.

    and then

    Good afternoon all – I jest cain’t take no more excitement. 📺💤

  16. What is it with young Liberals dressing like they are twenty years older than they are we see it with Celeb Bond or whatever is name is with a beard of a 40 year old.

  17. Simon Katich @ #2528 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 4:24 pm

    ————
    A couple of you out there could suffer to tone it down a little.
    ————
    I did. You should have seen the first draft.

    I occasionally vote Green. I have a lot of sympathy for the plight of Green political parties. But the attitude of ‘give me everything I want or the cute little bunny gets it’ is outrageous when you have no chance of getting what you want and a good chance of delivering the consequence.

    The difference of course is that voting Green in Australia may give them the balance of power whereas voting Green in the US Presidential election is utterly useless. The latter is just an unfortunate fact.

  18. E. G. Theodore says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 2:52 pm
    Anyway sorry for any offence taken.
    I realise that people here have an unusual exposure to mealy mouthed politicians, who are the worst tutors on this topic… but really

    Apologies 101 – one should apologise for one’s actions or statements – “I did XXX, I shouldn’t have done XXX and I apologise” and not for something someone else may have done, such as “taking offence”

    So it would be (at the least):

    Anyway sorry for any offence given.
    ………………………………………………………………….
    I agree until the last sentence. The use of the word “any” destroys the sincerity of the apology, rendering it less than worthless.

    I call it the vic rail apology which after the announcement of a train delay/cancellation goes: “VR apologises for any inconvenience caused.”

    It is as if VR think it possible every passenger on the platform waiting for the train might plausibly have nothing better to do with their time than spend it at the station. Thus, far from being an inconvenience the entirety might indeed be very pleased for the extra time and the apology otiose

    An ‘apology” that pretends it is quite possible no offence was caused when it is known, or ought to be known offence was caused increases the offence it pretends to ameliorate.

  19. doyley @ #2526 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 4:21 pm

    For labor to oppose the Morrison gas plan there must be something of substance to oppose. Otherwise labor will end up like the greens. Howling at the full moon.

    What new measures did Morrison announce yesterday that have any substance to them ? I am not talking about previous announced announcables or “ new “ gas hubs that currently exist or some lettuce leaf maybe we will do this slap to private investors that may or may not eventuate in 10 months time or smoke and mirrors but real measures.

    Answer ? Sweet F A.

    It is all a diversion, a look over here and away from aged care, jobkeeper and jobseeker, Australians stuck overseas etc etc etc.

    The result ? The greens, their enablers and the constantly stressed and agitated twitter army have been drawn towards the bright baubles and away of actual happening now real life issues and are wetting:themselves with happiness that they have something with which to attack labor.

    Dissecting the Morrison bullshit from yesterday ? They could not care less.

    Climate change is a real issue, not that the CFMEU or the AWU want people to realise it.

  20. This is not just an endorsement of Joe Biden and a rejection of Trump.

    It also is a denunciation of Australia’s political debates dominated by propaganda since The Press Gallery started backing the Murdoch/LNP narrative on climate change.

    This is not the fault of any progressive including the Greens.

    We can say it’s the fault of some progressives for failing to prosecute the case.

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientific-american-endorses-joe-biden/

  21. lizzie
    “I’m not watching it, but why would Julie Bishop be appearing on the Late for Dinner show? She wasn’t alive back then. Or was she?”

    I think you’re referring to the very twee ABC program ‘Further Back in Time for Dinner’. I am watching it, but I’m never sure why.

    Julie Bishop appeared because she’s Julie Bishop. Plus something to do with Edith Cowan, first female Australian politician, also from WA. Also something to do with cake. The ep was set in the 1920’s (flappers and all that), and I don’t think Ms Bishop was alive back then. But don’t quote me on that.

  22. Windhover – a fortiori – I was trying to be generous in modifying the original to the minimum extent possible, and it would seem I was under the mark

  23. Kakuru

    Thanks for the explanation and the mild sarcasm. Any excuse for publicity, I suppose. She is, to put it tactfully, my least favourite female Lib, except for all the others.

  24. Anne Ackroyd
    ·
    1m
    Tim Wilson just said on #afternoonbriefing that the Covid app worked and was used successfully in NSW but Victorians chose not to use it. It was a complete dud you lying nincompoop.

  25. Kakuru + Lizzie

    The family was rather enjoying that show until Bishop showed up. You’d have thought Crabbie would know better, that is if she has any control over production.

    LOL my youngest asked why they didn’t get Gilliard on.

  26. Non @ #2497 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 3:45 pm

    Unlike you, I have actually doing something concrete to prevent the use of gas in this country. Unlike you, I don’t just urge others to do things, I play my part. You are an idler and a whinger. Unlike you, I can sleep at night knowing I have done what I can to promote the de-carbonisation of the economy. Unlike you, I have lost my livelihood because of the impact of climate change on the industry in which I have been involved. Unlike you, I know first hand what it is to experience both the disruptions and the difficulties of responding to climate change. So you can take your smart-arsed commentary and go and get fucked.

    Yes, you do so much … except actually reduce the use of fossil fuels 🙁

  27. Well if Biden wants progressives to vote for him, then he needs to give them a motive to. Set out some progressive policies and not rely on the “vote for me, cause I’m not that other guy” argument. The Grouper Cabal seem to set the bar very low for their preferred right wing candidates.

  28. Oh no, it appears that Briefly is having another ‘turn.’ His mum said it would end in tears, if he kept going back to that Bludger site, but he didn’t listen to her.

  29. Player One says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 5:29 pm
    Non @ #2497 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 3:45 pm

    Unlike you, I have actually doing something concrete to prevent the use of gas in this country. Unlike you, I don’t just urge others to do things, I play my part. You are an idler and a whinger. Unlike you, I can sleep at night knowing I have done what I can to promote the de-carbonisation of the economy. Unlike you, I have lost my livelihood because of the impact of climate change on the industry in which I have been involved. Unlike you, I know first hand what it is to experience both the disruptions and the difficulties of responding to climate change. So you can take your smart-arsed commentary and go and get fucked.

    Yes, you do so much … except actually reduce the use of fossil fuels

    This is also absolutely false. Absolutely. In WA we have taken steps to abolish fracking in the onshore jurisdiction. The cessation of coal in electricity generation is proceeding. The electricity grids are being completely converted to renewable sources. This will be a reality before the end of the decade. Off grid electricity will also become mostly renewable-powered in a similar time frame.

    Unlike you, these are developments for which I have argued and voted; developments I recognise and applaud; and unlike you I recognise and applaud the decline in the coal markets that are reducing the value and volume of coal production and exports from Eastern Australia. These are all things you refuse to recognise or welcome. You are another Green-tinted Herring monger.

  30. Beemer, the reality is that for most ordinary Americans nothing much will change. They will be living under a neo liberal regime under Biden as much as Trump. The only big difference is that Biden will be more polite to them, as he allows the corporates to continue ripping them off.

  31. Beemer, the reality is that for most ordinary Americans nothing much will change.

    This is not the view of those who will be affected by the result and who will cast their votes.

  32. clem attlee @ #2547 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 5:39 pm

    Well if Biden wants progressives to vote for him, then he needs to give them a motive to. Set out some progressive policies and not rely on the “vote for me, cause I’m not that other guy” argument. The Grouper Cabal seem to set the bar very low for their preferred right wing candidates.

    How does a $2T climate package sound to you ?

  33. Player One @ #2540 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 5:29 pm

    Non @ #2497 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 3:45 pm

    Unlike you, I have actually doing something concrete to prevent the use of gas in this country. Unlike you, I don’t just urge others to do things, I play my part. You are an idler and a whinger. Unlike you, I can sleep at night knowing I have done what I can to promote the de-carbonisation of the economy. Unlike you, I have lost my livelihood because of the impact of climate change on the industry in which I have been involved. Unlike you, I know first hand what it is to experience both the disruptions and the difficulties of responding to climate change. So you can take your smart-arsed commentary and go and get fucked.

    Yes, you do so much … except actually reduce the use of fossil fuels 🙁

    You can count your achievements on the fist of one hand!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *