Something for everybody

Great polling for Labor in Victoria, catastrophic polling for Labor in Victoria, and a mixed bag of federal seat polling — but seemingly a very clear picture in Western Australia.

Scattered accounts of opinion polling ahead of what looks like being a lean week for it, with both Newspoll and Essential Research entering an off-week in their respective cycles:

• Some seriously mixed signals coming out of Victoria, starting with Roy Morgan, who have published results of an SMS poll conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 2325 that records a 70-30 favourable split for Daniel Andrews’ performance as Premier. Respondents also split 63-37 against allowing restaurants, hotels and cafes to provide table service, 54-46 against ending the rule limiting travel to within 5 kilometres of a person’s home, 63-37 against an end to the 9pm curfew, although there is a 59-41 split in favour of allowing Melbourne residents to visit the homes of immediate family members, and a 76-24 split in favour of state government compensation for businesses forced to close.

• The contrast is provided by a Herald Sun report in Liberal internal polling by MediaReach of five marginal Victorian state seats, showing devastating swings against Labor. The Liberals are credited with leads of 70.6-29.4 in Bayswater (50.4-49.6 to Labor at the 2018 election), 68.0-32.0 in Hawthorn (50.4-49.6 to Labor), 54.5-45.5 in Monbulk (58.6-41.4), 54.9-45.1 in Mount Waverley (51.8-48.2) and 57.9-42.1 in South Barwon (54.6-45.4). Daniel Andrews is nonetheless said to have preferred premier leads over Michael O’Brien of 46-37 in South Barwon, 43-37 in Mount Waverley and 39-29 in Monbulk, with O’Brien leading 46-33 in Hawthorn and 37-33 in Bayswater. The polling was conducted on Tuesday from samples of between 523 and 694.

• Labor-linked firm Redbridge Group has published polling from three Labor-held federal seats, which collectively suggest Labor has gone backwards since last year’s election. Including results for a follow-up prompt for the initially undecided, and applying preference flows from the last election, I estimate the two-party results at 54-46 to the LNP in Lilley, where Labor’s margin is 0.6%; 54.7-45.3 to Liberal in Hunter, where the margin is 3.0%; but 53-47 to Labor in Corangamite, improving on their existing 1.1% margin. Whereas One Nation came close to making the final two-party preference count in Hunter last year, this poll has them a distant third with 9.5%. The poll also presented respondents in Hunter with Liberal as the Coalition response option, whereas the seat was contested by the Nationals at the election. The poll was conducted from August 20-22 from samples of 1000 to 1200 per electorate. Pollster Kos Samaras notes on Twitter that their state-level polling is “not reporting the same trends”, and suggests the firm will publish polling over the coming days casting doubt over the aforementioned MediaReach findings from Victoria.

The West Australian published further results on Monday from last week’s Painted Dog Research poll, which credited Mark McGowan with a 91% approval rating, this time on Liberal leader Liza Harvey. Harvey was found to have an approval rating of just 10%, down nine since June, with disapproval unchanged at 37%. The balance included 36% neither satisifed nor dissatisfied and 10% for don’t know – I’m not sure where that leaves the 7% balance. The poll was conducted last week from a sample of 837.

• I took part in a podcast this week with Ben Raue at The Tally Room, together with former Australian Electoral Commission official Michael Maley, in which a highly wonk-ish discussion was had about electoral redistributions.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,679 comments on “Something for everybody”

  1. Speaking of groupers, the schismatics that comprise the Greens are the political descendants of the splitters of the past…Hughes, Lyons and Santamaria. Like their antecedents, the splitters today aim to exclude Labor from office and to keep the LNP in power.

  2. In my mind both Labor and Greens are both poor in responding to Morrison’s announcement, to the extent that he has been effective in making competitors focus on each other. Clever politics. The Federal Government can simply ignore both parties.

    Thankfully the business sector is no longer in lock step with all LNP decisions and several are responding by upping the ante. Brookes Cannon is providing a very functional riposte, in that it is more difficult for the Federal Government to ignore.

  3. Rex D

    Rudd could’ve pulled the DD trigger, but he was paralysed with fear. A very poor leader.

    True in hind sight but after enduring the eternity that was The Rodent Age to risk it all so soon may have been a bit daunting. Bird in the hand and all that. I put my hand up to being one of those who was ‘risk averse’ when it came to whether the trigger should be pulled. Events following made me soon wish he had done so. I was bigly wRONg .

  4. Non @ #2545 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 5:46 pm

    Unlike you, these are developments for which I have argued and voted; developments I recognise and applaud; and unlike you I recognise and applaud the decline in the coal markets that are reducing the value and volume of coal production and exports from Eastern Australia. These are all things you refuse to recognise or welcome. You are another Green-tinted Herring monger.

    Yeah, right. As I have pointed out many times, you are 100% in favor of anything passive. Anything that does not involve any actual action.

    You are 100% transparent.

  5. Player One says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 6:07 pm
    Non @ #2545 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 5:46 pm

    Unlike you, these are developments for which I have argued and voted; developments I recognise and applaud; and unlike you I recognise and applaud the decline in the coal markets that are reducing the value and volume of coal production and exports from Eastern Australia. These are all things you refuse to recognise or welcome. You are another Green-tinted Herring monger.
    Yeah, right. As I have pointed out many times, you are 100% in favor of anything passive. Anything that does not involve any actual action.

    You are 100% transparent.

    This is absolutely false. Everything that has been done in WA requires action. Action has been taken. This will continue.

    Point to one single thing you have done. Anything would suffice. Rather than building windmills, you are content to tilt at them. You’ve done nothing more than urge others to do things. You’re another idling, whinging, pretending imposter.

  6. Player One @ #2556 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 6:07 pm

    Non @ #2545 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 5:46 pm

    Unlike you, these are developments for which I have argued and voted; developments I recognise and applaud; and unlike you I recognise and applaud the decline in the coal markets that are reducing the value and volume of coal production and exports from Eastern Australia. These are all things you refuse to recognise or welcome. You are another Green-tinted Herring monger.

    Yeah, right. As I have pointed out many times, you are 100% in favor of anything passive. Anything that does not involve any actual action.

    You are 100% transparent.

    You demand action. But, don’t follow through either.

    You are such a hypocrite.

  7. Beemer, the reality is that for most ordinary Americans nothing much will change.

    The policy differences between Trump and Biden across a broad range of issues is stark. It is black and white. You can argue Biden is off-white or beige and you prefer pure white overalls but that doesnt change the fact his policies will make a difference to people in the US compared to Trump (should Biden be able to implement them).

    I suspect you dont actually know what his policies are. You could start with his ‘Empower Workers’ web page.
    https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/#

  8. It will be very interesting if the borders are open and the corona virus causes havoc again , and states closes their borders again, another whammy happens there are outbreaks of bushfires again this year, how will Morrison and his cronies going to cope

  9. poroti says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 6:15 pm
    Non
    Santamaria ? Didn’t the Shoppies provide refuge for those of that persuasion ?good ol’ Joe de Bruyn . A beacon of progress.

    True story. The Greens play the same functional role as their antecedents…Hughes, Lyons and Santamaria. They have all sought to divide the Labor plurality and to advance their own agendas. They have all belonged to movements against Labor. They may like to see themselves as special or different. But they are the same in one essential respect. They hate Labor.

  10. Non @ #2557 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 6:11 pm

    Point to one single thing you have done. Anything would suffice. Rather than building windmills, you are content to tilt at them. You’ve done nothing more than urge others to do things. You’re another idling, whinging, pretending imposter.

    LOL! How long have you been posting here? I have bored people here with the actions I have taken personally, and I don’t intend to go through them all again.

    You just don’t like having your hypocrisy pointed out.

  11. Player One says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 6:23 pm
    Non @ #2557 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 6:11 pm

    Point to one single thing you have done. Anything would suffice. Rather than building windmills, you are content to tilt at them. You’ve done nothing more than urge others to do things. You’re another idling, whinging, pretending imposter.
    LOL! How long have you been posting here? I have bored people here with the actions I have taken personally, and I don’t intend to go through them all again.

    Oh the lulz. There is not one thing you can point to of any substance. Not a one. You’re very happy to call for sacrifices by others yet make none yourself. You demand political efforts by others, yet make none yourself. You advance entirely specious arguments and think this is enough, and then complain when voters reject your appeals. How cheap that is.

  12. Do you like the economic collapse brought on by Covid 19?

    If not you don’t want worse for longer and harder.
    A century of Depression won’t help anyone.
    Time to act on Climate Change.
    We can’t afford not to on purely economic grounds if no other.

  13. Non @ #2566 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 6:34 pm

    Oh the lulz. There is not one thing you can point to of any substance. Not a one. You’re very happy to call for sacrifices by others yet make none yourself. You demand political efforts by others, yet make none yourself. You advance entirely specious arguments and think this is enough, and then complain when voters reject your appeals. How cheap that is.

    You didn’t read my previous post at all, did you?

  14. we need to begin the process of decarbonising our economies without delay. it is already going to be very bad quite soon, even ifthrough prompt action it can be made better in the long run. -a.v.
    ____
    HOW CLIMATE MIGRATION WILL RESHAPE AMERICA
    Millions will be displaced. Where will they go?
    ____
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/15/magazine/climate-crisis-migration-america.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
    ____
    https://www.propublica.org/article/climate-change-will-force-a-new-american-migration

  15. How does a $2T climate package sound to you ?

    Slightly less than twice as good as a $1T climate package, due to diminishing returns.

    I do find it amazing that all sorts of people aspire to a career in banking – whilst it is currently lucrative it’s boring as bat shit

  16. Who is Progressive in Name Only. Or PINO?

    If you oppose acting on Climate Change and boost Fossil Fuels you are a PINO. When the Civilisation is on the Line.

  17. Player One:

    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 9:39 am

    [‘We are where we are in large part because too many scientists are afraid to speak truth to power.’]

    You’re very wrong! Once scientists speak subjectively, their clover is blown; they become political players.

  18. Curiouser And Curiouser: Recent Queensland Poll And Poll-Shaped Objects Roundup

    I note that the Courier-Mail report no longer says the Australian Institute of Progress poll was conducted by YouGov, as it did in the original report and the print edition (as related by me in comments on the night).

  19. Dismissing experts as political players is very much a PB thing.

    I even alluded to it when I said treasure Chris Richardson opposing tax cuts.

    The facts given by experts count even when they are from opposing political parties. Dismissing that expert opinion because “politics” is one of the problems that led to the Stephen Bannon propaganda technique working.

  20. E. G. Theodore @ #2465 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 3:10 pm

    C@tMomma:

    Sorry, I thought the article was about testing for COVID-19 in pharmacies, which Annastacia P. has suggested. As far as a vaccine is concerned, they do it for the influenza vaccine, I can’t see how doing it for a C19 vaccine would be much different.

    As I understand it one of the leading US candidates needs to stay at -70 degrees until use. If that is correct then in that case it would need to be a pharmacy with the necessary equipment to keep stuff frozen and thaw it when needed. What fraction of pharmacies have this?

    And if the Oxonian/AZ vaccine gets through, then it may be that it needs to be administered in such a way that people who experience side effects can be treated on the spot. I presume this means something like pharmacies associated with facilities staffed by nurses (e.g. large GP practices etc), and also there would need to be a post dosing waiting area…

    Just back after whiling away some time playing Animal Crossing. 🙂

    Okay, to your first point. Large modern pharmacies adopted Cold Chain storage of heat sensitive medicines over 10 years ago and the storage facilities for same have only become more sophisticated as the software to run them, using the internet of things, has also become Smart. So I don’t really see the problem with storage. The pharmacies will just factor in the cost of keeping the temperature way down low and that will be that.

    As far as your second point is concerned, pharmacists and pharmacy assistants are trained in First Aid, as you would be surprised at the number of people who just keel over in shopping centres, near pharmacies, for a variety of reasons, so you are the first responder in many of these instances. Not to mention the fact that, if a doctors’ surgery or group practice isn’t co-located, then one is usually not very far away and as close and as quick to respond as a phone call from you to them.

    So, in essence, it’s doable.

  21. You can almost see the writing forming on the wall as Saint Scotty seems to be looking weaker and weaker as the gas he’s so full of keeps leaking as state premiers, particularly those horrible, awful, nasty Labor premiers, keep telling him where to go in no uncertain terms. How long before the Reichspud decides to take another shot at the leadership?

  22. Non

    . You advance entirely specious arguments and think this is enough, and then complain when voters reject your appeals.

    Sooo completely different to you and your party whose appeals were also rejected and so we have ……….

  23. Kronomex @ #2577 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 7:22 pm

    You can almost see the writing forming on the wall as Saint Scotty seems to be looking weaker and weaker as the gas he’s so full of keeps leaking as state premiers, particularly those horrible, awful, nasty Labor premiers, keep telling him where to go in no uncertain terms. How long before the Reichspud decides to take another shot at the leadership?

    Post-COVID19, he’s not up to the physical challenge. I think he’s happy just playing toy mercenary soldiers.

  24. C@tmomma @ #2580 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 7:22 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2563 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 6:28 pm

    poroti @ #2560 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 6:15 pm

    Non
    Santamaria ? Didn’t the Shoppies provide refuge for those of that persuasion ?good ol’ Joe de Bruyn . A beacon of progress.

    So says a card carrying Liberal preferencer.

    The De Bruyns are so 10 years ago!

    Poroti lives in the past.

    He can only vote for a Liberal future!

  25. “You can argue Biden is off-white or beige and you prefer pure white overalls…”

    ***

    …or just overalls that aren’t still soaked in blood after leaving the scene of a crime…

  26. C@tmomma
    The SDA’s Santa DNA was there for decades after it should have been sent to the cemetery. Ya telling me all those connections,links and patronages have all magically disappeared ? I hope so .

  27. poroti @ #2584 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 7:27 pm

    C@tmomma
    The SDA’s Santa DNA was there for decades after it should have been sent to the cemetery. Ya telling me all those connections,links and patronages have all magically disappeared ? I hope so .

    To a very great degree it has been as they have died off. I can tell you for a fact that the Catholics in the NSW Labor Party are more of the John Falzon acolytes and philosophical brethren and much less of the Tony Abbott ‘Mad Monk’ Santamaria acolyte type. And there’s the clue for you, look towards the Liberal Party for the successors to Santamaria, not Labor.

  28. Scott Morrison can’t enter Queensland for election campaign unless he quarantines

    This decision seems shortsighted.

    #scottyfrommarketing would be an excellent addition to flip-flop Freckle’s campaign.

  29. alfred venison:

    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 7:17 pm

    [‘the call is for (climate) scientists to speak politically. -a.v.’]

    Given the emergent crisis, perhaps you have a point. I really think though that science should keep to science lest it will lose its influence – eg Tim Flannery.

  30. As for “scientists”, they are modern-day knowledge creators, with benefactors that support them. The primary benefactor in Australia is the common public purse, via University sinecure and funding schemes such as the ARC, NHMRC and MRFF. Unfortunately these schemes are not a meritocracy. More so the Hunger Games, with increasing influence of the government of the day. More so now that University funding is decreased due to a projected lack of international students.

    It is not wise to bite the hand that feeds you.

  31. poroti:

    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 7:27 pm

    [‘Ya telling me all those connections,links and patronages have all magically disappeared ? I hope so .’]

    No, there’ye still there. You only have to look at this site for confirmation thereof – no names, no pack drill.

  32. Mavis @ #2573 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 7:13 pm

    Player One:

    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 9:39 am

    [‘We are where we are in large part because too many scientists are afraid to speak truth to power.’]

    You’re very wrong! Once scientists speak subjectively, their clover is blown; they become political players.

    I think you missed the point of my post. Science – and scientists – are already politicized. If you want evidence, you don’t have to look any further than the CSIRO. Or our Universities.

    They just don’t seem to want to acknowledge it. Scientists may think they are doing us a service by not speaking out when they are muzzled by political decree, whereas in fact they are doing us all a massive disservice.

  33. Just going to post this up again as it really made my day. Comedy gold.

    sprocket_ says:
    Tuesday, September 15, 2020 at 8:20 pm
    Back to reading Michael Cohen’s book, it is hard yakka as every page has some outrage Dotard committed, with some gems…

    “On this occasion, Trump was fresh from the shower and he hadn’t done his hair yet, as it was still air-drying. When his hair wasn’t done, his strands of dyed-golden hair reached below his shoulders along the right side of his head and on his back, like a balding Allman Brother or strung out old ’60s hippie. I called his plane Hair Force One, for good reason.

    Trump doesn’t have a simple combover, as it would appear. The operation was much more involved than a simple throw-over of what was left of his hair: the three-step procedure required a flop up of the hair from the back of his head, followed by the flip of the resulting overhang on his face back on his pate, and then the flap of his combover on the right side, providing three layers of thinly disguised balding-male insecurity. The concoction was held in place by a fog of TREsemme TRES Two, not a high-end salon product. Flip, flop, flap, and there was the most famous combover in the world.”

    — Disloyal: A Memoir: The True Story of the Former Personal Attorney to President Donald J. Trump by Michael Cohen
    https://a.co/j3zDdnw

  34. Excellent gif Firefox. No amount of scrubbing will wash the blood off Hawkins hands (and those who vote for him in swing states) should Trump scrape in on their protest vote. empowering a despotic climate and environment wrecker to prove a point seems extremely petulant, or just plain extremist.

  35. There is a distinction between political and politicised.

    Knowledge dissemination is political.

    Unless one argues that “scientists” should not be part of the knowledge dissemination process, they are political.

    This is in accordance with Flannery.

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