Something for everybody

Great polling for Labor in Victoria, catastrophic polling for Labor in Victoria, and a mixed bag of federal seat polling — but seemingly a very clear picture in Western Australia.

Scattered accounts of opinion polling ahead of what looks like being a lean week for it, with both Newspoll and Essential Research entering an off-week in their respective cycles:

• Some seriously mixed signals coming out of Victoria, starting with Roy Morgan, who have published results of an SMS poll conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 2325 that records a 70-30 favourable split for Daniel Andrews’ performance as Premier. Respondents also split 63-37 against allowing restaurants, hotels and cafes to provide table service, 54-46 against ending the rule limiting travel to within 5 kilometres of a person’s home, 63-37 against an end to the 9pm curfew, although there is a 59-41 split in favour of allowing Melbourne residents to visit the homes of immediate family members, and a 76-24 split in favour of state government compensation for businesses forced to close.

• The contrast is provided by a Herald Sun report in Liberal internal polling by MediaReach of five marginal Victorian state seats, showing devastating swings against Labor. The Liberals are credited with leads of 70.6-29.4 in Bayswater (50.4-49.6 to Labor at the 2018 election), 68.0-32.0 in Hawthorn (50.4-49.6 to Labor), 54.5-45.5 in Monbulk (58.6-41.4), 54.9-45.1 in Mount Waverley (51.8-48.2) and 57.9-42.1 in South Barwon (54.6-45.4). Daniel Andrews is nonetheless said to have preferred premier leads over Michael O’Brien of 46-37 in South Barwon, 43-37 in Mount Waverley and 39-29 in Monbulk, with O’Brien leading 46-33 in Hawthorn and 37-33 in Bayswater. The polling was conducted on Tuesday from samples of between 523 and 694.

• Labor-linked firm Redbridge Group has published polling from three Labor-held federal seats, which collectively suggest Labor has gone backwards since last year’s election. Including results for a follow-up prompt for the initially undecided, and applying preference flows from the last election, I estimate the two-party results at 54-46 to the LNP in Lilley, where Labor’s margin is 0.6%; 54.7-45.3 to Liberal in Hunter, where the margin is 3.0%; but 53-47 to Labor in Corangamite, improving on their existing 1.1% margin. Whereas One Nation came close to making the final two-party preference count in Hunter last year, this poll has them a distant third with 9.5%. The poll also presented respondents in Hunter with Liberal as the Coalition response option, whereas the seat was contested by the Nationals at the election. The poll was conducted from August 20-22 from samples of 1000 to 1200 per electorate. Pollster Kos Samaras notes on Twitter that their state-level polling is “not reporting the same trends”, and suggests the firm will publish polling over the coming days casting doubt over the aforementioned MediaReach findings from Victoria.

The West Australian published further results on Monday from last week’s Painted Dog Research poll, which credited Mark McGowan with a 91% approval rating, this time on Liberal leader Liza Harvey. Harvey was found to have an approval rating of just 10%, down nine since June, with disapproval unchanged at 37%. The balance included 36% neither satisifed nor dissatisfied and 10% for don’t know – I’m not sure where that leaves the 7% balance. The poll was conducted last week from a sample of 837.

• I took part in a podcast this week with Ben Raue at The Tally Room, together with former Australian Electoral Commission official Michael Maley, in which a highly wonk-ish discussion was had about electoral redistributions.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,679 comments on “Something for everybody”

  1. Yep, bc @ 2:36pm.

    Nicholas and firefly – basically evil.

    Unfortunately they – and their ilk – are quite happy to triangulate against Labor & hence any chance the progressive plurality has of getting middle Australia onboard with any progressive reform that actually matters for the 21st century. ScoMo and all the other pirates on the right thank them. Basically evil all round.

  2. Anyway sorry for any offence taken.

    I realise that people here have an unusual exposure to mealy mouthed politicians, who are the worst tutors on this topic… but really

    Apologies 101 – one should apologise for one’s actions or statements – “I did XXX, I shouldn’t have done XXX and I apologise” and not for something someone else may have done, such as “taking offence”

    So it would be (at the least):

    Anyway sorry for any offence given.

  3. Cornell West?

    He was pretty good in the Matrix, and its ‘good’ (if belated and over due) of him to abandon the Green Party at the eleventh hour, but this was the dude who called Obama a Republican in blackface. He’s a gas lighter like the rest of the faux left. Basically evil.

  4. BS. This is the most important election anywhere in… forever.

    You are saying that Joe Biden is entitled to the votes of progressive voters. Sorry. Joe Biden is not entitled to anybody’s vote. That isn’t how democracy is supposed to work. It is wrong of you to vote-shame progressives who choose to vote for Howie Hawkins. What they are doing is legitimate and healthy. Voters who are happy with Biden’s moderate Republican policy platform are free to vote for him. Just don’t expect progressive voters to do the same.

  5. Hey basically evil propeller cap boy: bc is not saying ‘Biden is entitled’ to anything: he’s saying that the planet, progressive politics and basic decency demands a vote for whoever the Democrat candidate is, even if it happens to be sleepy Joe.

    If your puny god actually won the primaries by getting out that missing legion of new, first time, radical voters that he repeatedly promised he could deliver, then I’m sure that bc – and me – and every right minded person on the planet would be saying the same thing about Bernie.

  6. AE

    There you go.

    A person who disagrees with you politically agreeing with you and the Never Trumpers of the GOP and you still call him evil.

    No wonder your contributions don’t help Labor win elections. You have to drive people to extremes creating more division.
    No coming together for the greater good in your contribution

  7. Kakuru says Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 2:39 pm

    Okay, but… what if I’m a diehard Bernie supporter and I’m sad and bitter?

    Then ask yourself, who will Bernie be voting for?

  8. Powerful people in the US right are not going to improve their behaviour if the Republicans keep getting re-elected.

    Electing Democratic presidents who governed as moderate Republicans – Bill Clinton and Barack Obama – did not improve the Republican party. In fact the Republican party responded by moving sharply to the right. When will you learn that accommodating conservatives by adopting their policies doesn’t actually improve anything for regular people or the planet?

  9. Thankfully I keep my smackdowns of idiocy to they internet Guytaur. I just ignore your levels of stupid in real life – unless I’m briefed to represent them if they get into a spot of bother with the rozzers.

    Gaslighting Biden is basically evil. Even you must realise that, given the stakes. Surely.

  10. Nicholas
    “That isn’t how democracy is supposed to work. It is wrong of you to vote-shame progressives who choose to vote for Howie Hawkins. What they are doing is legitimate and healthy.”

    Wrong. All Howie Hawkins voters are doing is helping Trump.

    Honestly, how hard is this to explain?

  11. Not only are you evil, you are also foolish, propeller cap boy. The republicans shifted hard right under Nixon. The motivation for the was white backlash against the civil rights movement and Johnson’s grand society. The reaction to Clinton and then Obama was already baked into the Republican’s psyche long before either were presidential candidates. In fact when it comes to raw meat for the base, there has been far more fulminations amongst the white nativists over the rise of The Squad and movements like BLM than over the relative su=cresses of centrist and moderate politicians like Clinton and Obama.

  12. Nicholas says Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 2:54 pm

    You are saying that Joe Biden is entitled to the votes of progressive voters. Sorry. Joe Biden is not entitled to anybody’s vote. That isn’t how democracy is supposed to work. It is wrong of you to vote-shame progressives who choose to vote for Howie Hawkins. What they are doing is legitimate and healthy. Voters who are happy with Biden’s moderate Republican policy platform are free to vote for him. Just don’t expect progressive voters to do the same.

    You’re missing the whole f’n point. It’s not about Joe Biden. It’s about Donald Trump. Biden might not be progressive enough for you, but he’s a hell of a lot more progressive than Trump.

    Think about what a Trump and Republican victory would mean (and one thing it will definitely not mean is that we are four years closer to a progressive nirvana).

    The world cannot afford four more years of Donald Trump.

    There’s a reason Bernie and AOC will be voting for Biden.

  13. Guytaur – if you didn’t obviously suffer from basic comprehension problems you’d have realised what my point about Cornell West was. But here we are.

  14. C@tMomma:

    Sorry, I thought the article was about testing for COVID-19 in pharmacies, which Annastacia P. has suggested. As far as a vaccine is concerned, they do it for the influenza vaccine, I can’t see how doing it for a C19 vaccine would be much different.

    As I understand it one of the leading US candidates needs to stay at -70 degrees until use. If that is correct then in that case it would need to be a pharmacy with the necessary equipment to keep stuff frozen and thaw it when needed. What fraction of pharmacies have this?

    And if the Oxonian/AZ vaccine gets through, then it may be that it needs to be administered in such a way that people who experience side effects can be treated on the spot. I presume this means something like pharmacies associated with facilities staffed by nurses (e.g. large GP practices etc), and also there would need to be a post dosing waiting area…

  15. Is Nicholas trolling us? Seriously he can’t believe this shit.

    A vote against Trump is a vote to get his illiterate arse out of the White House and frankly that’s all that matters. All forms of navel gazing can follow once he’s gone.

  16. Nicholas
    The Democrats objective isn’t to change the Republican party but to beat it at the ballot box and the fact remains that mainstream swing voters are not going for your idea of progressive policies.

  17. Andrew_Earlwood
    “Not only are you evil, you are also foolish, propeller cap boy. The republicans shifted hard right under Nixon. The motivation for the was white backlash against the civil rights movement and Johnson’s grand society. The reaction to Clinton and then Obama was already baked into the Republican’s psyche long before either were presidential candidates”

    Exactly right. Nixon wooed disaffected Southern white conservative voters to the Republican Party. Within a generation, almost the entire South (the former Confederacy) flipped from safe Democrat to safe Republican. Quite an achievement.

    It’s only very recently that demographic change has shifted some Southern states back toward the Dems (especially Virginia; also trending that way are N. Carolina, Georgia and Texas).

  18. AE

    Yes you are gaslighting Dr West to bolster your political position.

    Stupidly so. Supporting Biden is the way to go which is why I brought it up.

    That is what Dr West is doing.

    Unlike you Dr West doesn’t make the case that Biden is a saint.
    He makes the case bc just made. It’s about voting against Trump now.

    Not relitigating the 2016 election.

  19. “ Is Nicholas trolling us? Seriously he can’t believe this shit.”

    But alas.

    If you read his contributions for long you realise that he’s a cultist. Right now its an absolute belief in the MMT cult. In previous times he could have easily been a Branch Dividian, a deacon ladling out the Kool-aid a Guatemalan jungle, a Spanish Inquisitor or one of Savanarola’s merry band of book burners.

  20. Kakuru
    The flipping that occurred in the 60s is remarkable in that i am not aware of any other western democracy where two political parties have swapped political heartlands like what happened in America.

  21. I’m sorry Guytaur, but Cornell West deserves a paddling every time he puts his head above the parapet.

    That said, it is ‘good’ (if somewhat belated) that he’s finally realised just how bad Trump is. Chapeau Cornell, you gaslighting flog!

    Even though it was also blinding obvious in 2016 – when a democrat president would not have nominated either Gorisch or Kavanaugh to the SC, when ‘evil’ centrist Hillary would had dramatically built on Obama’s environmental record. And so it goes.

  22. Mexicanbeemer
    “The flipping that occurred in the 60s is remarkable in that i am not aware of any other western democracy where two political parties have swapped political heartlands like what happened in America.”

    It is indeed remarkable. And this swap might be ongoing, if the Republicans continue to attract ‘blue-collar’ workers, and the Dems continue to attract affluent suburban voters. Time will tell.

    There might be parallels in the UK, with the Tories hoovering up former Labour heartland in the North (in a large part thanks to Corbyn).

  23. bc says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 2:36 pm
    Nicholas says Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 1:39 pm

    The faux left want Trump to win. Very simple. They will rejoice if it happens.

  24. You are saying that Joe Biden is entitled to the votes of progressive voters. Sorry. Joe Biden is not entitled to anybody’s vote. That isn’t how democracy is supposed to work.

    I am not saying any such thing. What I am saying is people who care about the environment and are in certain swing states should vote for Biden. If they chose to vote for Hawkins in those states then they dont care about the environment at all as they are voting for global environmental destruction. So yes, in that they should be deeply ashamed as they seem to care less about the environment and more about their small minded bitterness.

    You either do not understand the US voting system or unaware of basics of cause and effect. Or you dont give a rats about the environment at all and just another ideologue lost in the moral vacuum of politics.

  25. PERSONA NON GRATA: Queensland bans Scott Morrison from entering\

    Scott Morrison can’t enter Queensland for election campaign unless he quarantines

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison will be banned from entering Queensland for the duration of the state election campaign unless he is prepared to pay $2800 to quarantine for 14 days in a government facility.

    Nearly seven weeks after he last entered the sunshine state, there’s no signs that the Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk will lift the border bans before the October 31 election.

    Queensland’s border ban will effectively stop the Prime Minister, Labor leader Anthony Albanese and any other frontbenchers from entering the state for the duration of the election unless they are prepared to spend a fortnight in quarantine.

    https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/scott-morrison-cant-enter-queensland-for-election-campaign-unless-he-quarantines/news-story/2c0098998754db9095d5d9d502e422ac

  26. Coronavirus Victoria: State introduces enormous new fine

    Anyone thinking about dodging the rules as a result of some restrictions lifting has been warned to think twice, with a massive new fine introduced before regional Victoria moves forward with its lockdown exit plan tonight.

    There are fears the rule change – which will come into effect at midnight – will spark a mass exodus of Melburnians attempting to flee their locked down city, which could see coronavirus cases spread to country areas.

    But Deputy Commissioner, Regional Operations Rick Nugent has announced a raft of measures to stop rulebreakers in their tracks.

    There will be an increased police presence on the roads with officers checking cars and vehicles towing campervans and boats as well as keeping an eye on venues – but the biggest deterrent will likely be a brand new, “huge” $4957 fine for the fresh offence of “failure to comply with a requirement to remain in a restricted area”.

    Deputy Commissioner Nugent said the fine would apply to every adult within a vehicle – so if a family was caught breaking the rules, for example, both parents would be slapped with individual fines.

    https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/coronavirus-australia-live-victoria-qld-nsw-covid19-updates/live-coverage/485e027a095e31092d3aef4d3099b503

  27. Lizzie – Melbourne is doing incredibly well under the circumstances.

    Trump is bad and must go – is the US electoral system up to it? It has a much harder job without compulsory voting – then again I think we are pretty much alone with that.
    I am more concerned with the direction of our politics and our government at the moment.

    Australia is a first world country with a small population and an entire continent of natural resources to draw upon. That is why (amongst other reasons) we haven’t had a recession in nearly three decades.
    Before the virus we were in recession. Young folks and the entitled may not understand the full consequences of a recession. Hopefully the effects of the virus induced shutdown of the business sector will abate and with appropriate policy settings will return to pre-covid state ish – ie. a recession. With inappropriate policy we are in for a very long recession – depression? The current government is incapable of the policy settings required for ideological reasons.
    With that in mind, in the next federal election it is vital that the LNP are removed. Whilst perhaps in the greater scheme of things, not as vital as removing Trump, but for Australia’s future it is critical.

    LNP’s response has been effectively zero.
    Pump priming the economy? Yeah nah.
    Job creation? Gas – very few jobs, but renewables – no way!
    Stop the non tax paying mining giants sending our wealth abroad? Nup – think of our retirement jobs as ‘consultants’ !

    If it wasn’t so serious, this banana republic behaviour would be laughable.
    Labor has to make a difference next election, I hope Albo is up to the job or we are truly stuffed.

  28. Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 3:27 pm
    guytaur @ #2486 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 3:25 pm

    Briefly and AE

    There is your “Faux Left”.
    Pro fossil fuel I’d say.

    Yeah. You would say that. In Rexology up is down and black is white.

  29. You either do not understand the US voting system or unaware of basics of cause and effect

    Rolling over for Democratic candidates with moderate Republican policies is what got the United States into this colossal mess in the first place. Doing it again in this election will only make it worse.

    Democratic candidates who want votes from progressive voters need to support progressive policies. If they do that, they will win over those voters. Medicare-For-All, the Green New Deal, and free college tuition are very popular overall in the American electorate, with approval ratings in the high 60s. Campaigning for those policies would HELP Biden electorally. But he doesn’t do it because he is beholden to corporate donors who don’t want those policies to happen.

    Electing Clinton and electing Obama didn’t put the United States on track to reach the carbon emission targets that are needed to avert the worst climate change scenarios. Not even close. Believing that electing yet another moderate Republican president will make a difference to that is incredibly naive.

  30. Nicholas
    “Medicare-For-All, the Green New Deal, and free college tuition are very popular overall in the American electorate, with approval ratings in the high 60s. ”

    Source?

    Paint me skeptical. These ‘ratings’ sound dodgy, to say the least.

  31. VP

    Prove it. Get on board reducing emissions opposing Morrison’s gas plan.

    Stop saying yes fossil fuel companies we will spend taxpayer money to keep fossil fuel viable.

  32. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 3:25 pm
    Briefly and AE

    There is your “Faux Left”.

    Unlike FF and N, unlike Q or any of the other apologists, imposters and self-sanctifying Greens, I’ve never advocated a vote or an abstention or a deflection or an excuse or a deception that would favour Trump at the expense of Biden. I want Biden to win. I think this is important for the whole world. There is no equivalence ever between Trump and Biden. There is no equivalence between their supporters or their campaigns.

    The unfortunate truth is the Greens are Trumpy. They pretend not to be. But their pretence fools no-one except the willingly gullible.

  33. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 3:38 pm
    Briefly

    Choose Biden or Trump.

    If you choose Biden that means no gas. Emissions mean something.
    You listen to the experts not the idiots

    Unlike you, I have actually doing something concrete to prevent the use of gas in this country. Unlike you, I don’t just urge others to do things, I play my part. You are an idler and a whinger. Unlike you, I can sleep at night knowing I have done what I can to promote the de-carbonisation of the economy. Unlike you, I have lost my livelihood because of the impact of climate change on the industry in which I have been involved. Unlike you, I know first hand what it is to experience both the disruptions and the difficulties of responding to climate change. So you can take your smart-arsed commentary and go and get fucked.

  34. Nicholas says Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 3:37 pm

    Rolling over for Democratic candidates with moderate Republican policies is what got the United States into this colossal mess in the first place. Doing it again in this election will only make it worse.
    Democratic candidates who want votes from progressive voters need to support progressive policies. If they do that, they will win over those voters. Medicare-For-All, the Green New Deal, and free college tuition are very popular overall in the American electorate, with approval ratings in the high 60s. Campaigning for those policies would HELP Biden electorally. But he doesn’t do it because he is beholden to corporate donors who don’t want those policies to happen.
    Electing Clinton and electing Obama didn’t put the United States on track to reach the carbon emission targets that are needed to avert the worst climate change scenarios. Not even close. Believing that electing yet another moderate Republican president will make a difference to that is incredibly naive.

    How important is reducing greenhouse gas emmissions to you?

  35. Josh Taylor
    @joshgnosis
    ·
    10m
    DCHO Annaliese van Dieman says back in March they were seeing cases among returned travellers from places with no reported cases:

    “At one point Melbourne had more cases from Aspen, Colorado than Aspen had reported, which just doesn’t make any sense whatsoever”

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