Still more affairs of state

A whole bunch of privately conducted polls from Queensland and Victoria, some more convincing than others.

No media polling has emerged in the past week, but there have been a welter of reports at state level on private polling – rather too many, one might think, given the political agendas frequently attached to them.

In Victoria, where Liberals provided the Herald Sun with polling showing Labor copping a hiding in four marginal seats last week, Labor-linked firm Redbridge Group has pushed back showing a far happier set of results for the Andrews government. This includes a state voting intention finding with Labor on 39.1%, the Coalition on 34.5% and the Greens on 7.0%, converting into an estimated 53.5-46.5% lead to Labor on two-party preferred. Pollster Kos Samaras offers a few qualifications: that phone polls tend to under-report both Labor and the Nationals, and that the Greens’ inner-city constituency is “difficult to survey”.

On the state government’s road map for emerging from lockdown, 58.1% agree it was motivated by “the best interests of Victorians” with 31.3% disagreeing. Conversely, only 34.1% thought Scott Morrison and the federal government were playing a constructive role, with 50.6% disagreeing, and just 18.2% thought so in relation to the state Liberals, with 57.0% disagreeing. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 2172.

There has also been a flurry of polling ahead of next month’s state election in Queensland, all of it portending bad things for Labor:

• The Australian reported on polling conducted for coal miner New Hope by Omnipoll, which was co-founded by former Newspoll head Martin O’Shannessy, has the following findings in Queensland, targeting four Labor-held seats outside Brisbane. The overall pattern was of an exodus from right-wing minor parties to the Liberal National Party, and of Labor losing a bigger share of the primary vote than they would probably be able to wear:

Ipswich: Labor 44 (-4), LNP 29 (+16), One Nation 5 (-22), Greens 12 (+3).
Keppel: Labor 34 (-9), LNP 40 (+15), One Nation 10 (-16), Greens 7 (+1).
Mackay: Labor 36 (-7), LNP 37 (+12), One Nation 7 (-16), Greens 6 (+1).
Thuringowa: Labor 33 (+1), LNP 40 (+19), One Nation 4 (-16), Greens 7 (+1), Katter’s Australian Party 7 (-9).

This tends to suggest Labor losing more support than they can wear, while the LNP soaks up a huge share of One Nation and KAP support that it had probably been getting back as preferences anyway. Labor won Ipswich by 10.9% over One Nation in 2017, and wouldn’t be troubled there on these numbers; won Keppel by 3.1% over One Nation, and would likely lose to the LNP; won Mackay by 8.3% over the LNP, and would likely hang on; and won Thuringowa over One Nation by 4.1%, and would likely lose.

• The Greens have been circulating results of three inner urban seats conducted by Lonergan Research, where the LNP’s move to preference them ahead of Labor makes them likely winners wherever they can finish second. In the party’s one existing seat of Maiwar, a strong flow of Labor preferences would likely secure victory for incumbent Michael Berkman, on 36% to LNP candidate Lauren Day’s 37%, with Labor on 17%. The party is reportedly well placed to defeat former Deputy Premier Jackie Trad in South Brisbane, where their candidate Amy McMahon has 36% to Trad’s 30%, with Clem Grehan of the LNP on 21%. They also look in the hung on in McConnel, which was once more appositely known as Brisbane Central, Greens candidate Kirsten Lovejoy is on 30%, Labor incumbent Grace Grace is on 29%, and LNP candidate Pinky Singh is on 31%, with 8% undecided. Notes of caution: The Australian cites Labor analysis that has the party expecting to win a very close race; Kevin Bonham discerns a tendency for the Greens to under-perform their own published seat polling; and even the pollster itself cautions that the Greens are “typically over-represented in polls”, as reported by the Courier-Mail. Each of the polls was conducted “over the past month” by phone and SMS from samples of 600.

• A statewide poll conducted by LNP-aligned think tank the Australian Institute for Progress was trumpeted in the Courier-Mail on Monday as a YouGov poll showing Labor on 32%, the LNP 38% and the Greens on 12%. However, it turns out these were the results of the paper’s own YouGov poll from early June that the pollster used as a weighting base for responses to a series of other questions. The Courier-Mail report no longer claims the poll was conducted by YouGov, but continues to present its numbers as fresh results. The new poll would actually appear to have covered barely more than 300 respondents drawn from the organisation’s own online panel, which is quite a lot smaller than those used by YouGov and Essential Research. For what it’s worth, it finds a 56-44 split in favour of the LNP to form government, plus other findings you can read in the pollster’s own report.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

898 comments on “Still more affairs of state”

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  2. Mexicanbeemer
    “Been There
    It is pretty silly to fall out over that because you’re both entitled to your opinions.”

    Sorry for the very late response.
    What you say is true.
    Perhaps I could have worded it better and said we are not talking at the moment instead of saying we are no longer friends.
    However to avoid that becoming the case I have withdrawn from his company for fear of an argument that could end that friendship.
    You know the old saying ” the spoken word, like the shot arrow, can never be taken back” that’s the worry I have.
    Cheers.

  4. GG
    Big Nick before my time and can only just remember Jezza, maybe Lockett and Buckley for me
    Carey the best i’ve seen. My older brother is Nth Melb so went to many Nth games in the 90’s. He was a brilliant footballer.

  5. Taylormade @ #851 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 8:22 pm

    GG
    Big Nick before my time and can only just remember Jezza, maybe Lockett and Buckley for me
    Carey the best i’ve seen. My older brother is Nth Melb so went to many Nth games in the 90’s. He was a briiliant footballer.

    Neither Buckley nor Lockett played in Premiership teams.

    Can agree they were champion players. But, not the best of the best in my evaluation.

    Abblett was just mesmerising to watch.

  10. I find it interesting that that grubs such as Barilaro show no mental health concerns prior to a controversy and show none after a controversy, only during a controversy. He is in hiding and that is all, so I am calling bullshit on his ‘mental health’ concerns. Just watch, as soon as this blows over he will be back claiming to be all better.

  13. William Bowesays:

    This in response to some trivial chit-chat about football.
    ______________
    Carlton supporter rage is a serious issue. 5 wooden spoons with more to come has induced various psychoses in thousands of formerly smug members of the football world. It’s not pretty.

  15. clem attlee
    My ‘fave’ was Andrew Robb. When some sticky and very pertinent questions started being asked it was suddenly all out of bounds ‘cos ‘mental health issues’. I’m sure the $800,000 pa job from the Chinese Comrades eased the pain immensely.

  18. billsays:
    Friday, September 18, 2020 at 9:06 pm
    The conversations about Cricket always seem to be more civil.
    I don’t know why.
    ____
    everyone’s on the same side with cricket.

  20. But yeah, how about Maxwell and Carey eh? Not that anyone was taking much notice.

    It was something, something that would have been astounding in front of 40,000 people.
    Maxwell can be frustrating but you could pick him for his fielding. Alex Carey is a gun, you can see it in his eyes.

  21. bill @ #868 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 9:27 pm

    But yeah, how about Maxwell and Carey eh? Not that anyone was taking much notice.

    It was something, something that would have been astounding in front of 40,000 people.
    Maxwell can be frustrating but you could pick him for his fielding. Alex Carey is a gun, you can see it in his eyes.

    I’d pick Maxwell every time, and just take what you get. Any other country would.

  22. This really is a Wow! moment. And there I was thinking I was such a commoner:

    Emerging evidence suggests the 49 per cent of Australians with O-type blood may be slightly less at risk of COVID-19 infection than the rest of the population.

    Multiple studies, including a huge new 1.05 million-person paper from gene screening company 23andMe, and research published in the New England Journal of Medicine, have reached the same conclusion.

    The studies use genome-wide-association-surveys to match COVID-19 infections to patterns in DNA.

    The studies show having blood group O is associated with a lower risk of being infected. The Journal study also shows people with O group blood are less likely to have a severe form of the disease.

    “The evidence to date is still preliminary. It’s interesting, and it’s re-energised the debate about what the role of the blood group system is. But none of these studies is definitive by any stretch,” said Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute senior research fellow Dr James McFadyen.

    The studies add to the mystery of blood groups.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-story-of-o-blood-type-may-lower-your-chances-of-catching-covid-20200917-p55wgl.html

    Because, as we all know now, boys and girls, COVID-19 is a blood-borne disease. 🙂

  23. C@t, I recall this being postulated right back in the early days, in February or even January. Hadn’t heard anything about it since.
    Anyway, good news for you (and me) if they’re right.

  24. Spray @ #871 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 9:49 pm

    C@t, I recall this being postulated right back in the early days, in February or even January. Hadn’t heard anything about it since.
    Anyway, good news for you (and me) if they’re right.

    Also, if you read the article it explains why our blood group has an effect on COVID-19 cellular attachment. Fascinating. However, a word of caution for the vaccine advocates, will your blood group also affect the efficacy of the vaccine?

  25. The conversations about Cricket always seem to be more civil.

    Until there’s a change to the rules of the game or there’s a new technology being used, either in coverage or umpiring, then it suddenly becomes polarising and heated.

    Or a controversial LBW decision is made…

  26. Watching the Hilary doco on SBS. Top quality stuff too.

    She comes across as many politicians do who have retired, far more engaging than when they were running. I recall her recent interview with Howard Stern. Running for office she avoided Stern despite him being an overwhelming admirer of here. Strange decision. Now the pressure is off she turned up to the show and was great.

  28. A good article here from my old flatmate, throwing a bit of common sense on the alarming conclusions drawn from this study that was widely reported earlier in the week.
    For those who may not have understood the importance of terms such as specificity and sensitivity, 2020 has been a great year to learn.

    https://theconversation.com/has-australia-really-had-60-000-undiagnosed-covid-19-cases-146303?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=bylinetwitterbutton

  30. GG has the usual Victorian bias regarding football.
    To them the other state leagues never existed except as recruiting grounds.
    They call non Victorian clubs ‘interstate clubs’.

    They seem to think that it is still the VFL.
    Actually Carlton has only won 1 AFL premiership.

  32. Evening to all.
    Noting the discussion re blood type and Covid immunity.
    Being an O- blood type that’s good news for me and all others of that group.
    As members of this blood group know, our blood is in high demand by the Red Cross as this blood type is compatible with all others.
    Trivia fact…only 7% of the population is O-.
    That’s why the Red Cross is ringing me and others of this group very often for donations.
    There could be something in this virus resistance, as I have only had one serious dose of the flu in my life and that was some twenty five years ago.
    Having said all that I hope I haven’t put the mock on myself and others.
    Happy days!

  33. I’m still convinced I contracted COVID-19 very early on in the piece when I took my son to the International Airport in March and before people were wearing masks, using hand sanitiser and practising social distancing.

    I felt the medical equivalent of swooning and it came over me in a rush and I felt like I was going to melt. I had severe shortness of breath, a temporary loss of taste and my sense of smell was diminished, plus I had what is now known as ‘Covid Foot’, which manifested as excruciating pain when my foot was touched. I was also excessively sleepy for days.

    I honestly didn’t believe at the time that I had C19, or if I did I thought I’d just wait and see if my condition deteriorated before I did anything about it. Luckily for me I was able to struggle through it and come out the other side eventually. The same goes for my son.

    Did it not take hold severely because my blood group is ‘O’? That’s something that I can only hypothesise about. However, if I had a blood test to check for antibodies I reckon they would find them in my blood.

  37. Ah AFL tragics. Especially those from bleak city.

    I’ve always thought that if Ivan Milat had ever played first grade for Hawthorn, or some such suburban club, and Belanglo was in Victoria, he’d never been charged, let alone convicted. I also reckon you could walk down Collins St wearing a baby’s head as a hat and still get police bail if you due to lace up the boots for the first 18 on Saturday.

  38. BOB LYNCH @ #879 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 10:11 pm

    GG has the usual Victorian bias regarding football.
    To them the other state leagues never existed except as recruiting grounds.
    They call non Victorian clubs ‘interstate clubs’.

    They seem to think that it is still the VFL.
    Actually Carlton has only won 1 AFL premiership.

    I was a latecomer to Aussie Rules when I moved to Perth, but many of my West Aussie friends would sing the praises of Stephen Michael, who I don’t think even made it to Melbourne. There is more than one way to measure greatness.

  39. There is more than one way to measure greatness.

    Bernie Naylor from South Fremantle kicked 1034 goals in 194 games. In 1953 he got 167 in the season.
    Amazing, and he kicked torpedo punts for goal.

  40. Greensborough Growler @ 7:03 pm

    C@tmomma @ 6:47 pm
    I reckon Polly Farmer should get a guernsey in there somewhere too.

    Champion player. But, never played in a Victorian premiership.

    Really? Might I suggest you look at who played in Geelong’s 1963 premiership-winning team?

  45. “ Was going to say that he sounds like a poor man’s Keith Miller, but he actually mentored the great man!”

    25 probable air to air victories and over 60 ground attack sorties at Milne Bay makes him a poor man to nobody.

    Oh, and two premierships at kick-chasey …

  46. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Friday, September 18, 2020 at 11:22 pm

    Oh, and two premierships at kick-chasey …
    _______________
    Do people still play rugby in NSW? or have all the Polynesians scared them away?

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