Still more affairs of state

A whole bunch of privately conducted polls from Queensland and Victoria, some more convincing than others.

No media polling has emerged in the past week, but there have been a welter of reports at state level on private polling – rather too many, one might think, given the political agendas frequently attached to them.

In Victoria, where Liberals provided the Herald Sun with polling showing Labor copping a hiding in four marginal seats last week, Labor-linked firm Redbridge Group has pushed back showing a far happier set of results for the Andrews government. This includes a state voting intention finding with Labor on 39.1%, the Coalition on 34.5% and the Greens on 7.0%, converting into an estimated 53.5-46.5% lead to Labor on two-party preferred. Pollster Kos Samaras offers a few qualifications: that phone polls tend to under-report both Labor and the Nationals, and that the Greens’ inner-city constituency is “difficult to survey”.

On the state government’s road map for emerging from lockdown, 58.1% agree it was motivated by “the best interests of Victorians” with 31.3% disagreeing. Conversely, only 34.1% thought Scott Morrison and the federal government were playing a constructive role, with 50.6% disagreeing, and just 18.2% thought so in relation to the state Liberals, with 57.0% disagreeing. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 2172.

There has also been a flurry of polling ahead of next month’s state election in Queensland, all of it portending bad things for Labor:

The Australian reported on polling conducted for coal miner New Hope by Omnipoll, which was co-founded by former Newspoll head Martin O’Shannessy, has the following findings in Queensland, targeting four Labor-held seats outside Brisbane. The overall pattern was of an exodus from right-wing minor parties to the Liberal National Party, and of Labor losing a bigger share of the primary vote than they would probably be able to wear:

Ipswich: Labor 44 (-4), LNP 29 (+16), One Nation 5 (-22), Greens 12 (+3).
Keppel: Labor 34 (-9), LNP 40 (+15), One Nation 10 (-16), Greens 7 (+1).
Mackay: Labor 36 (-7), LNP 37 (+12), One Nation 7 (-16), Greens 6 (+1).
Thuringowa: Labor 33 (+1), LNP 40 (+19), One Nation 4 (-16), Greens 7 (+1), Katter’s Australian Party 7 (-9).

This tends to suggest Labor losing more support than they can wear, while the LNP soaks up a huge share of One Nation and KAP support that it had probably been getting back as preferences anyway. Labor won Ipswich by 10.9% over One Nation in 2017, and wouldn’t be troubled there on these numbers; won Keppel by 3.1% over One Nation, and would likely lose to the LNP; won Mackay by 8.3% over the LNP, and would likely hang on; and won Thuringowa over One Nation by 4.1%, and would likely lose.

• The Greens have been circulating results of three inner urban seats conducted by Lonergan Research, where the LNP’s move to preference them ahead of Labor makes them likely winners wherever they can finish second. In the party’s one existing seat of Maiwar, a strong flow of Labor preferences would likely secure victory for incumbent Michael Berkman, on 36% to LNP candidate Lauren Day’s 37%, with Labor on 17%. The party is reportedly well placed to defeat former Deputy Premier Jackie Trad in South Brisbane, where their candidate Amy McMahon has 36% to Trad’s 30%, with Clem Grehan of the LNP on 21%. They also look in the hung on in McConnel, which was once more appositely known as Brisbane Central, Greens candidate Kirsten Lovejoy is on 30%, Labor incumbent Grace Grace is on 29%, and LNP candidate Pinky Singh is on 31%, with 8% undecided. Notes of caution: The Australian cites Labor analysis that has the party expecting to win a very close race; Kevin Bonham discerns a tendency for the Greens to under-perform their own published seat polling; and even the pollster itself cautions that the Greens are “typically over-represented in polls”, as reported by the Courier-Mail. Each of the polls was conducted “over the past month” by phone and SMS from samples of 600.

• A statewide poll conducted by LNP-aligned think tank the Australian Institute for Progress was trumpeted in the Courier-Mail on Monday as a YouGov poll showing Labor on 32%, the LNP 38% and the Greens on 12%. However, it turns out these were the results of the paper’s own YouGov poll from early June that the pollster used as a weighting base for responses to a series of other questions. The Courier-Mail report no longer claims the poll was conducted by YouGov, but continues to present its numbers as fresh results. The new poll would actually appear to have covered barely more than 300 respondents drawn from the organisation’s own online panel, which is quite a lot smaller than those used by YouGov and Essential Research. For what it’s worth, it finds a 56-44 split in favour of the LNP to form government, plus other findings you can read in the pollster’s own report.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

898 comments on “Still more affairs of state”

Comments Page 1 of 18
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  1. Weaponised polling is now blatant.
    Makes me suspicious of polling reported by News Corp.
    Clearly the parties think of favourable reports of poll results as weapons in their campaigns to beat up their opponents.
    Witness the use of the corrupted Twitter Age polls by Chris Kenny recently.

  2. The fact that no really credible polls have appeared showing a change of government in Queensland says to me that the media knows that any legitimate poll would kill off their “close election” shtick that they use to sell advertising.

  3. Pretty blunt assessment from Hawke’s former press secretary.

    One wonders if the howls to replace Speers with his predecessor on Insiders will continue after this blasphemous outburst!

  4. Maude Lynne,
    Bootsrapping, as BB would say. They use the confected polls to attempt to sway public opinion to create a herd effect and to give the paid ranters like Chris Kenny something to hang their hat on for the day.

  5. Craig Emerson

    OK I’m going to say it: I’m fearful of a right-wing takeover of Australia. We live in scary times. The hard right identifies anyone on the progressive side as nasty “woke” “globalist” “warmists” who threaten Australia. The Murdoch media enables and promotes it. They are winning.

    Edit: It’s already too late. Only a revolution will change things.

  6. Firefox says:
    Thursday, September 17, 2020 at 6:39 am

    Very heartening to see Green support collapsing in Victoria….time for them to begin the process of winding themselves up,

  7. Gas industry donates millions to Australian political parties

    Some of the biggest players in Australia’s gas sector have made more than $6.4m in political donations over the past decade, including $426,000 to the Liberal and National parties in the 2018/19 election year.

    Donation records submitted by major gas corporates and the industry’s peak group, the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association (Appea), show significant and relatively even contributions to Labor and the Coalition since 2010/11.

  8. Thanks for those Bandt tweets, Firefox.
    In summary, SfM announces a “Vision for a gas led recovery” (SBS quote) and Bandt then “calls on Labor to stop siding with the Libs”.

    Albanese has given Morrison’s “Vision” the attention it deserves (bugger all) but apparently he should have immediately diverted his attacks on Morrison’s lack of plans to bring back stranded Australians to fight Morrison on his chosen turf.

    Why, exactly?

  9. lizzie
    Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 6:49 am
    Comment #10

    Isn’t there enough news happening for the Daily Tele? More stupidity.

    Now you’ve gone and went and done it ❗

    All right thinking folk were utterly dismayed with the news a few days ago that
    Joe Hildebrand had gotten the boot from his TV gig.

    Good news now for his admirers

    I’m not sure what “increasing his presence” means – maybe he’s putting on weight. In any case waytogo Joe. 😎☕

    Q: What’s a Fiona O’Loughlin ❓

  10. One of the stakeholder groups in WA that were in favour of fracking were aboriginal landholders in the Kimberley. Fracking has been banned in WA by the McGowan government despite the possible economic advantages fracking would offer remote communities. This had been a very significant factor in the thinking of some of the unions here, who have a very long-standing commitment to support the economic, cultural, social and political defence of first peoples in this State and elsewhere.

  11. “The defeat of the Right starts with the defeat of Donald Trump in November.”


    Factually incorrect. If Trump is defeated he will be replaced by a right winger. America’s addiction to the rampant, out of control capitalism that is destroying the world will continue.

  12. Labor’s attacks on Coalition lack of plans to bring stranded Australians home is working. MickMac is no longer ignoring the issue ( it’s a start).
    He’s now doing press releases blaming state caps for the problem.
    Actually, he’s blaming Qld and WA’s caps. Gladys blames them for her caps, too.
    Josh Butler’s ND article doesn’t mention Tasmania or SA at all.
    Funny that.

  13. “Why, exactly?”


    Because Albo should be able to walk and chew gum at the same time. If he can’t, he isn’t the right person for the job. An opposition leader needs to be able to take the fight to the government of the day on multiple fronts at once, just as the Greens do on a daily basis. The climate crisis hasn’t gone away, you know.

  14. Firefox,
    It’s got nothing to do with chewing gum.
    As you know, spreading your forces across multiple fronts results in failure to win on any of them.
    That’s why Morrison tried to open a new front.
    And Albanese refused.

  15. Bye bye Susan Collins.

    Quinnipiac University Poll@QuinnipiacPoll
    Maine, South Carolina, Kentucky Senate Races: #SusanCollins trails, #LindseyGraham ties, and #MitchMcConnell leads; majority plan to vote in person on Nov. 3 in each state #2020Election #2020Senate

  16. The politics of climate change in Australia have been utterly confounded by Green chicanery. Completely confounded. They should dissolve themselves for the sake of the environment.

  17. Anyone who actually wants to see real action on Climate Change would be backing a Biden presidency.
    If you’re only interested in a bit of virtue signalling I’d guess you’d just be reposting 2 day old green twits.

  18. Morning all

    Trump of course keeps saying there will be a vaccine by end of October.

    CDC says otherwise.

    Bloomberg QuickTake
    · 5h
    JUST IN: CDC Director Robert Redfield says at a Senate hearing he sees a #Covid19 vaccine being “generally available to the American public” in the “late second quarter, third quarter 2021”

  19. If Joe Biden is going to rebuild the Democrats’ “blue wall” and win states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and claim the White House, he will need to appeal to the working-class Democratic communities that put Donald Trump over the top in 2016. They include more than 200 counties that supported Barack Obama twice before voting for Mr. Trump.

    Many of these places had long records of unbroken support for Democratic presidential candidates, some even stretching back to before the New Deal.

    Mr. Biden needs to tune in to their cultural sensibilities if he’s going to bring at least some of these pivotal blue strongholds back into the Democratic fold. He is one of the few Democrats, as a child of working-class Scranton, Pa., capable of doing so.

    So glad that Biden won the nomination and not Bernie.

  20. Norty Swedes. They told ‘the world’

    Swedish Public Health Agency………………The report aimed to compare the effect of different approaches on the rate of Covid-19 infections among schoolchildren. It noted that Sweden kept schools open and Finland closed them.
    “In conclusion, closure or not of schools has had little if any impact on the number of laboratory-confirmed cases in school-aged children in Finland and Sweden,”

    But and what a BUT, they happened to forget to mention.

    ..but fails to mention Sweden’s leading epidemiologist Anders Tegnell paused the collection of data from children because he thought it would create anxiety among the public

    As Science Mag noted in May, Sweden missed an opportunity to “definitively answer the question” about infections in schools because “officials have not tracked infections among schoolchildren – even when large outbreaks led to the closure of individual schools”.

  21. ‘…just as the Greens do on a daily basis.’

    If the yardstick is the impact the Greens are having, then Albo is romping it in.

    At least what he says gets reported; he doesn’t have to rely on someone reposting his tweets.

  22. This gave me a chuckle

    Adam Body
    Uhlmann is undergoing a slow and steady discombobulation.
    Quote Tweet

    Tony Koch
    · 19h
    I just read this I can’t believe Chris Uhlmann penned this unintelligent rubbish. It reads as though he picked up a speech by Malcolm Roberts and sent it to SMH by mistake. I have read some lightweight, quite stupid stuff on Covid, but this is right up there. Juvenile. #auspol…

  23. Just clicked on to ‘headline news on channel 9 tv’ – it was all newsltd papers with the Australian headline of PM sent 3 letters to Premier Andrews without reply.

    There are a lot of people who only get their info from these sources – message that gets out PM does stuff and Andrews stuffed up and has not not handled crises well at all.

  24. Douglas and Milkosays:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 9:53 pm
    Ezra Pound

    Mavis says

    You’re very wrong! Once scientists speak subjectively, their clover is blown; they become a political player.
    the call is for (climate) scientists to speak politically. -a.v.

    Climate scientists do speak politically – all the time.
    i didn’t say they don’t.

    I have no idea why you cannot hear their voices.
    i didn’t say that.

    In summary, they want action, any action.
    i didn’t say they don’t.

    A bit of action opens the wedge to voters accepting that action in climate change is not an economic disaster for them. Voters will then be inclined to accept stronger action on climate change.
    i didn’t say they wouldn’t.

    Climate scientists do not want to wait for perfection!!!
    i didn’t say they do.

    Why is it that you cannot hear what they say?
    i didn’t say that.

    As a physical scientist, I feel totally unheard by you.
    i’m not surprised, i wasn’t talking to you, i was talking to Mavis about his use of the word “subjectively” in replying to Player One, who is the person who made “the call” for scientists to “talk back to power”. Mavis understood that.

    You seem to think you know better what scientists think than we did ourselves.
    i didn’t say that.

    Patronising git!!
    i suggest next time you read all relevant comments in the chain more carefully, with an eye to context & who said what, before shooting your mouth off. and stop gas lighting, you overbearing twat. -a.v.

  25. ‘fess,
    The Democrats need to get lazy Obama out to those swing states to convince the African American population that voted for him but are questioning Biden’s commitment to improving their lives, that Biden will work to improve their lives and so go vote for him! Every day from now until the election. I read an on-the-ground report from a regional area of Wisconsin with a large population of African Americans and they were not prepared to get out and vote for Joe Biden.

  26. “Anyone who actually wants to see real action on Climate Change would be backing a Biden presidency.
    If you’re only interested in a bit of virtue signalling I’d guess you’d just be reposting 2 day old green twits.”


    Nah, anyone who is serious about climate change would have supported Sanders, not Biden and his watered down climate policies.

    We know from history that the Obama/Biden admin was terrible when it came to taking action on climate change. They spent eight years exporting fracking to the world, running a protection racket for the fossil fuel industry, and fostering the myth of “clean coal”. Biden cannot be trusted on the environment.

  27. Good morning dawn Patrollers

    Rob Harris reveals that the scandal-plagued disability sector has seen more than 8000 complaints lodged in two years, but only one fine has been issued. With the wonderful Stuart Robert at the helm, how could this POPSSIBLY have happened?
    David Crowe writes that Labor will go to the next federal election with an interim target to reduce carbon emissions amid a growing policy tussle over whether to back new gas production and gas-fired power stations.
    Bruce Robertson asks, “When investors won’t back gas, why should taxpayers?”
    Mike Cannon-Brookes has kicked off talks with battery titan Elon Musk about developing a replacement power source for the ageing Liddell coal-fired power plant, but says the Morrison government must clearly set out the rules of engagement for any new investments.
    The Prime Minister was in full #ScottyfromMarketing mode on Tuesday to sell his government’s increased commitment to fossil fuels, including a threat to launch the Commonwealth directly into the gas burning business, writes Michael Pascoe in quite a take-down.
    The Morrison government will continue to fund Australia’s renewable energy agency to the tune of $1.43bn over a decade but overhaul its mandate so there will be less investment in solar and wind, and more focus on investment in hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, microgrids and energy efficiency.
    Richard Denniss says that Morrison’s tax cuts are not temporary or targeted – they are ideological and inequitable.
    The COVID-19 crisis and the Reserve Bank’s clear message that state governments should not be constrained by debt has given Premier Daniel Andrews a “magic opportunity” to build consensus for an ambitious reform agenda, former union leader Bill Kelty said.
    A new offence comes into force at midnight and aims to deter people from leaving metro Melbourne and travelling into regional parts of Victoria. It carries a fine of $4957.
    According to Nick Bonyhady, the NSW union movement has thrown its support behind moving public service jobs to the regions in an unusual alignment of Labor’s support base with a long-term priority of the Nationals.
    The OECD says the Victorian lockdowns have pushed back Australia’s economic recovery, while warning “zombie” jobs must not be sustained.
    But it expects Australia’s first recession in 29 years will see economic output contract 4.1 per cent this year, better than forecasts of a 5 per cent contraction made in June.
    The housing market is continuing to defy the pessimists, with some analysts even tipping that prices in some of the country’s main cities will be picking up by the end of the year, writes Karen Maley.
    The editorial in the SMH says that the confusion in US politics cannot be ignored. Australia should consider hedging its bets by broadening our ties with like-minded nations.
    It seems John Barilaro is under notice.
    Pru Goward reckons John Barilaro wasn’t appealing to his party room, but to a growing group of disaffected Australians. She does not believe that the Nats are road kill just yet.
    The expert medical panel advising the national cabinet on the pandemic has drawn up a new definition of a COVID-free zone amid signs of hope in the tense border stand-off between Prime Minister Scott Morrison and state and territory leaders.
    Matt O’Sullivan tells us how a drawn-out saga over replacing flammable cladding has soured relations between owners of a Sydney apartment building.
    QBE plans to appeal a judgment in a UK test case on whether business interruption policies should cover losses related to the coronavirus pandemic as local insurers brace for an Australian ruling next month.
    An extra $1.9 billion will be pumped into driving new technology to lower emissions in Australia’s manufacturing, transport and agriculture sectors, reports Rob Harris.
    Jennifer Duke tells us that Australians are driving up the price of used cars at record rates, taking advantage of the cheapest petrol prices in two decades and big incentives for businesses buying equipment and vehicles amid health fears about using public transport.
    A Victorian nursing home is fighting to contain a coronavirus outbreak just days after it was officially given the all-clear to relax infection control protocols.
    Tim Flannery writes that the megafires and pandemic expose the lies that frustrate action on climate change.
    Birmo has let fly at Alan Joyce’s blatant attempt to get corporate welfare from the states.
    The big brand theme park that is the Australian War Memorial, bankrolled by international arms manufacturers, is an object lesson in dishonesty, writes William De Maria.
    Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes that markets are counting on a vaccine rescue that is further away than they think.
    Even in the midst of a recession the Australian housing market continues along its merry way writes Greg Jericho.
    Boris Johnson said a second lockdown would be “disastrous” for the British economy, as he appeared to pour cold water on his earlier optimism of rapid, pregnancy-style coronavirus infectiousness tests by Christmas.
    Johnson is tested on Covid and Brexit, his specialist subjects of ignorance, says the entertaining John Crace.
    Stephen Bartholomeusz explains why Trump will laugh off China’s WTO win.
    The Federal Reserve left interest rates near zero and signalled it would hold them there through at least 2023 to help the US economy recover from the coronavirus pandemic.
    ‘Press release journalism’ favours Morrison and the Liberal Party, writes Rashaad Seedeen.,14314
    Data trusts could help to restore the balance between privacy and effective governance, writes Paul Budde.,14313
    A US congressional investigation has found Boeing management was unwilling to share technical details about its 737 Max aircraft – and that when it did the Federal Aviation Administration “failed to adequately address safety issues”.
    Talk of ‘historic’ Middle East breakthroughs is premature writes Maher Mughrabi.
    Facebook and Instagram flagged posts from the Fox News show Tucker Carlson Tonight as false information on Wednesday, local time, saying that they repeated information about COVID-19 “that multiple independent fact checkers say is false”.
    In a rare excursion outside the friendly media bubble of Fox News on Tuesday night, Donald Trump took questions directly from uncommitted American voters at a televised “town hall” type event, in an experiment his campaign might not be in a hurry to repeat.
    Casino group Star Entertainment earns nomination for ‘Arseholes of the Week”.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    Alan Moir

    David Rowe

    Cathy Wilcox

    Andrew Dyson

    Matt Golding

    Johannes Leak

    Mark Knight

    Dionne Gain

    From the US

  28. Bingo!

    Andrew P Street
    So if there’s anything we’ve learned from the Morrison epoch it’s this: if his government announces something they’re unlikely to do it, and if his government does something they’re unlikely to announce it.
    11:18 AM · Sep 16, 2020·Twitter Web App

  29. “= Impotent Puritan Virtue Signaller”


    Poor Cat can’t help resorting to lame personal attacks. It’s all she has left when confronted with truths that don’t align with the establishment’s brainwashing. That’s alright. Take a few deep breaths and let it all out.

    Inhale…. Exhale… Inhale…

    Bet you feel better already 🙂

  30. Re Victoria @7:31
    JUST IN: CDC Director Robert Redfield says at a Senate hearing he sees a #Covid19 vaccine being “generally available to the American public” in the “late second quarter, third quarter 2021”

    Most sources that I have come across which seem credible are talking second half of next year for a vaccine.

  31. ‘ It’s all she has left when confronted with truths that don’t align with the establishment’s brainwashing. ‘

    Just as well Firefox doesn’t do lame personal attacks.

    Good to see him occupying the higher ground.

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