No media polling has emerged in the past week, but there have been a welter of reports at state level on private polling – rather too many, one might think, given the political agendas frequently attached to them.
In Victoria, where Liberals provided the Herald Sun with polling showing Labor copping a hiding in four marginal seats last week, Labor-linked firm Redbridge Group has pushed back showing a far happier set of results for the Andrews government. This includes a state voting intention finding with Labor on 39.1%, the Coalition on 34.5% and the Greens on 7.0%, converting into an estimated 53.5-46.5% lead to Labor on two-party preferred. Pollster Kos Samaras offers a few qualifications: that phone polls tend to under-report both Labor and the Nationals, and that the Greens’ inner-city constituency is “difficult to survey”.
On the state government’s road map for emerging from lockdown, 58.1% agree it was motivated by “the best interests of Victorians” with 31.3% disagreeing. Conversely, only 34.1% thought Scott Morrison and the federal government were playing a constructive role, with 50.6% disagreeing, and just 18.2% thought so in relation to the state Liberals, with 57.0% disagreeing. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 2172.
There has also been a flurry of polling ahead of next month’s state election in Queensland, all of it portending bad things for Labor:
• The Australian reported on polling conducted for coal miner New Hope by Omnipoll, which was co-founded by former Newspoll head Martin O’Shannessy, has the following findings in Queensland, targeting four Labor-held seats outside Brisbane. The overall pattern was of an exodus from right-wing minor parties to the Liberal National Party, and of Labor losing a bigger share of the primary vote than they would probably be able to wear:
Ipswich: Labor 44 (-4), LNP 29 (+16), One Nation 5 (-22), Greens 12 (+3).
Keppel: Labor 34 (-9), LNP 40 (+15), One Nation 10 (-16), Greens 7 (+1).
Mackay: Labor 36 (-7), LNP 37 (+12), One Nation 7 (-16), Greens 6 (+1).
Thuringowa: Labor 33 (+1), LNP 40 (+19), One Nation 4 (-16), Greens 7 (+1), Katter’s Australian Party 7 (-9).
This tends to suggest Labor losing more support than they can wear, while the LNP soaks up a huge share of One Nation and KAP support that it had probably been getting back as preferences anyway. Labor won Ipswich by 10.9% over One Nation in 2017, and wouldn’t be troubled there on these numbers; won Keppel by 3.1% over One Nation, and would likely lose to the LNP; won Mackay by 8.3% over the LNP, and would likely hang on; and won Thuringowa over One Nation by 4.1%, and would likely lose.
• The Greens have been circulating results of three inner urban seats conducted by Lonergan Research, where the LNP’s move to preference them ahead of Labor makes them likely winners wherever they can finish second. In the party’s one existing seat of Maiwar, a strong flow of Labor preferences would likely secure victory for incumbent Michael Berkman, on 36% to LNP candidate Lauren Day’s 37%, with Labor on 17%. The party is reportedly well placed to defeat former Deputy Premier Jackie Trad in South Brisbane, where their candidate Amy McMahon has 36% to Trad’s 30%, with Clem Grehan of the LNP on 21%. They also look in the hung on in McConnel, which was once more appositely known as Brisbane Central, Greens candidate Kirsten Lovejoy is on 30%, Labor incumbent Grace Grace is on 29%, and LNP candidate Pinky Singh is on 31%, with 8% undecided. Notes of caution: The Australian cites Labor analysis that has the party expecting to win a very close race; Kevin Bonham discerns a tendency for the Greens to under-perform their own published seat polling; and even the pollster itself cautions that the Greens are “typically over-represented in polls”, as reported by the Courier-Mail. Each of the polls was conducted “over the past month” by phone and SMS from samples of 600.
• A statewide poll conducted by LNP-aligned think tank the Australian Institute for Progress was trumpeted in the Courier-Mail on Monday as a YouGov poll showing Labor on 32%, the LNP 38% and the Greens on 12%. However, it turns out these were the results of the paper’s own YouGov poll from early June that the pollster used as a weighting base for responses to a series of other questions. The Courier-Mail report no longer claims the poll was conducted by YouGov, but continues to present its numbers as fresh results. The new poll would actually appear to have covered barely more than 300 respondents drawn from the organisation’s own online panel, which is quite a lot smaller than those used by YouGov and Essential Research. For what it’s worth, it finds a 56-44 split in favour of the LNP to form government, plus other findings you can read in the pollster’s own report.
Andrew P Street quoted by Victoria:
“So if there’s anything we’ve learned from the Morrison epoch it’s this: if his government announces something they’re unlikely to do it, and if his government does something they’re unlikely to announce it.“
Very interesting observation, certainly true.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/16/senate-election-democrats-control-warning-republican-memo?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Albanese and labor have been wedged on nothing because nothing has been announced by Morrison.
I am not a great fan of Albanese or Butler but I do believe they have taken the correct option re the Morrison “ gas led” recovery bullshit.
Point out it is the 19th or 20th energy policy “ policy” from this government. Point out there is nothing of any substance in it. Point out that, in fact, a large slab of it is just reannouncement announceables, gas hubs that are already up and running and the lettuce leaf threat to the energy sector to invest in gas or the government MAY consider looking into investing in a gas fired power station some time next year.
After all that “ pointing out” just brush it aside and move on.
Let the greens and their supporters power up on Twitter and waste their time howling at the moon while real world issues continue to impact on real world Australians.
Jobkeeper and jobseeker rate reductions as unemployment rises. Australians stranded overseas while the Morrison government does nothing and the now dysfunctional national cabinet meets tomorrow to further show how impotent Morrison is.
By all means concentrate on wafting smoke issues like some non existent gas policy put forward by Morrison which, according to some, is entirely the fault of Albanese.
I keep saying that the best push back on the lies about Biden’s mental acuity is for the man himself to simply speak in public.
Some of the targets of the inquiry must be provisionally chuckling that they are going to get away with this extraordinary perversion of justice
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-17/lawyer-x-prosecutions-doubtful-victoria-ibac-says/12672060
it looks like Andrews has implemented a ‘hotspot’ strategy by restricting movements from Melbourne.
You’d think that SfM would be out there praising Dan for using the idea he promoted at the last National Cabinet.
But no,……not a word from Scotty.
Instead we have Rachel Baxendale’s criticism of Dan’s “Ring of Steel” in today’s Oz.
No link. I doubt anyone wants to read her rubbish.
TPOF @ #2664 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 10:40 pm
It seems you have overdosed on the current mindless groupthink here that anyone who is even mildly critical of Labor’s recent lurch to the right must be loony 🙁
Jaeger @ #42 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 7:54 am
Ah yes. Business…
Morning all. Thanks BK. Dystopian times here and in the US. I hope Andrews and Palaszczuk stick to their principles. I hope Albo is allowed to act on his. As for the failure to condemn the Liberal gas scam, there is plainly a faction in the Labor party that might as well be Liberals.
Gas expansion has nothing to do with protecting jobs. It is one of the lowest employment industries we have. There are far more jobs in the renewable sector the money is being siphoned away from. This is protecting jobs for a small group of privileged high-paid workers, at the expense of thousands without a job. It is not an act of social justice, but nepotism.
At this rate Scomo will be reelected, and it won’t be the Greens fault.
And based on the actual experience from WA, it’s a strategy that works.
Spot on, Doyley.
Morrison’s gas energy policy was just meant to be a diversion anyway.
It will be re-announced at another time, no doubt, to distract us again.
Carefully choosing the “right” electorates, no doubt.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6928585/govt-to-widen-arena-remit-fund-new-fridges-for-pubs-in-low-emission-push/
Lizzie,
I expect Dan will be able to announce achievement of Covid Zero Spread within a month or so, all going well.
Victorians deserve to be congratulated for their actions (mostly) complying with the lockdown rules.
Aced it.
Check point at Little River between Melb and Geelong unmanned at the moment due to wet weather.
sprocket_ @ #41 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 7:50 am
Yes, you bet they are. I think I read that The Lincoln Project’s main target was always Trump, directly, trying to f*ck with his head, drive him crazy, crack his shell.
Socrates @ #59 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 8:27 am
I think I have spotted a problem here … 🙁
Victoria 28 new cases
8 deaths
Whereas a couple of months ago it was Dear Leader who was missing, even presumed dead, it’s now Dear Sister who hasn’t been seen since July:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-17/kim-jong-un-enters-north-koreas-most-dangerous-season/12662896
North Korean watches must be scratching their heads.
__________________________________________________
28 new cases in Vic; 8 deaths.
28 Cases, 51 same time last week.
Next week will be in the teens, the following single digits….
The gas plan that both the LNP and now apparently the ALP seem to be backing, as a way out of a covid depression, seems to be the brain fart of a guy who in terms of the sometimes popular epithet ‘spiv’, captures the meaning and mood for #auspol as done by the major parties pretty well.
That Aus politicians and media sit breathlessly listening to or repeating the crock of BS that such a spiv delivers, encapsulates the original sense of Australia as ‘the’ lucky country.
If Labor think gutless silence is a winner, so be it.
A Reuters investigation report from 2015
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/dow/
Andrew Liveris is one of the world’s best known CEOs. Inside Dow Chemical, though, company auditors have alleged he used his position to finance his lifestyle, favor his family or boost a charity that burnished his fame in Greece.
—
Specific allegations of improper spending involving Liveris surfaced in lawsuits last year, which Reuters and others reported [http://reut.rs/1bgYO52]. The claims were filed in state and federal court by Kimberly Wood, a former fraud investigator for the company who worked under Anderson during his nine years as Dow’s top auditor.
Her suits, and a complaint she filed with the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration, claimed that Dow had fired her in retaliation for raising concerns about Liveris. She alleged that Dow money had financed vacations, sports junkets and other perks for the CEO and his family.
In 2011, Dow disclosed that Liveris had reimbursed the company $719,923 for expenses incurred from 2007 to 2010. Its annual proxy statement offered no details about the expenses, beyond characterizing them as “not primarily business related.”
In her lawsuits and OSHA complaint, Wood listed an array of perks that, she claimed, the company had improperly financed for Liveris, his family and friends. Among them: a safari; hundreds of thousands of dollars for Super Bowl parties; and $13,000 in uniforms for his son’s basketball team. Wood claimed that internal auditors identified $13 million in cost overruns on the renovation of a company-owned hotel involving the CEO’s wife, Paula Liveris. And Wood alleged that Dow was using its $16 million contract with a consulting firm to channel money to a charity co-founded by Liveris – a claim that Dow’s lawyers called “shrill,” “reckless” and “utterly unsupported.”
Confessions @ #54 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 8:20 am
What I thought was interesting was that when he got riled up about his son not being a loser (after the Atlantic article on Trump calling veterans losers and suckers), the natural (what I call) frailty sound in his voice disappeared. He is mostly very softly spoken, a little bit hoarse almost, and as his speech is often slow and considered, I think all that plays into the ‘old and past it’ meme.
He was asked about this, and responded that he intentionally withholds his emotions, and controls what he says and how he says it. Personally, I think he could do well to up the anger and angst a bit against Trump, whose braying, shouting and noisy bellyaching does, it has to be admitted, cut through.
Itza:
Much of the commentary I’ve read and heard suggests most voters are over the noise and drama of Trump and long for being able to return to life without having to have the president creating a scene. If that’s accurate then there’s a case to be made for Biden dialling back the shouting and speaking more gently.
Maybe Adani will take up the Government’s gas brainfart?
Confessions @ #74 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 9:18 am
‘fess, I guess that depends on what ‘most voters’ actually means. The prospect that Trump might be reelected is real. Anyways, mine was a very personal take, prefixed by ‘personally’. I just think his voice actually sounds a lot older than he is, and that frail quality disappeared when he got a bit heated, and he really sounded like he actually meant what he was seriously saying. But I don’t need convincing. It’s a dire situation imo.
For those with an interest in foreign governments I was interested to watch Le Tour last night and Emmanuel Macron sharing a car with Race Director Christian Prudhomme (who had tested positive for Covid just 10 days ago).
There was a lot of footage of them using Hand Sanitizer and keeping their masks tightly on their faces…
Barbados says it will remove Queen Elizabeth as head of state
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/barbados-says-it-will-remove-queen-elizabeth-as-head-of-state-20200916-p55wd1.html
Jaeger @ #79 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 7:33 am
Right they’ve been independent for nearly 55 years, but the the Queen is still their Head of State.
How does that work? 🙂
Jaeger
France COVID per daily figure is hovering around 10,000
Alpha Zero @ #78 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 9:33 am
Go Richie !
Scary fact:
India is reporting more confirmed cases daily than China’s total confirmed cases.
Australia has an opportunity but I don’t think the states can do what the commonwealth should.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/premier-has-magic-opportunity-to-reshape-state-bill-kelty-20200916-p55w9j.html
Gas led recovery what a laugh.
Frednk
It’s actually beyond a laugh
God the Liberals are beyond hopeless
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/17/coalition-to-divert-renewable-energy-fundng-away-from-wind-and-solar
But they do have the Greens running around chanting gas gas gas so I suppose their marketing is good.
And that’s where I started scrolling.
mikehilliard says:
Thursday, September 17, 2020 at 9:58 am
The gas plan that both the LNP and now apparently the ALP seem to be backing..
And that’s where I started scrolling.
Ya a lot effort going into the Liberal/Green wedge. Must be an election coming on in Queensland. Beyond impressed with the military precision the Greens came on board.
mikehilliard @ #87 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 7:58 am
You got that far? 😆
Has anyone seen anything that supports the Morrison/Taylor fossil fuels revival?
Edit Or even anyone?
Alpha Zero
At which point the Covid 19 State of Origin finals begin. NSW vs Victoria.
frednk @ #84 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 9:52 am
Indeed. If anyone here can explain the Labor’s actual position on gas, I for one would be grateful.
Not that I am holding the SMH out as an authoritative source, but you might start with this …
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-to-aim-for-interim-carbon-target-but-can-t-agree-on-gas-20200916-p55wbk.html
Labor seems to be just as convoluted and conflicted on gas as they are on coal 🙁
Player One @ #92 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 8:08 am
More importantly, What is the Government’s position?
This is just a brainfart and so far not part of a coherent policy.
How can you judge it’s merits in isolation?
“Federal Health Minister and local MP Greg Hunt is “deeply disappointed” the Victorian government has refused to delay assessing the environmental impact of AGL’s proposed gas-import terminal at Western Port until coronavirus restrictions are lifted”
_______________
Full steam ahead for Dan.
Poroti
Unfortunately, with 2 exceptions in security guards, Victoria is the state of origin
On the gas scam, Project Zero Shame, you do not need to be an environmentalist to be opposed. This is using government money to bail out foreign owned gas corporations from failed investments.
The technical aspects of the “Clean energy” claims of gas powered hydrogen generation have been shot down by experts.
https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Insight-66-Hydrogen-and-Decarbonisation-of-Gas.pdf
So have the economics:
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/there-is-no-magic-hydrogen-bullet-coming-20191106-p537t6
If only we had some sort of “Opposition Leader” to oppose this?
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #93 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 10:15 am
The government’s position seems fairly clear. They want more investment in gas, and if private investment won’t do it, then they are prepared to pump government money into it. Whether or not you think this is sensible – or even whether or not you believe they will actually do what they say – their position seems clear.
What is Labor’s position?
Player One @ #97 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 8:20 am
Well I suppose when it’s more than a brainfart and the legislation is written then they will be in a position to respond to the relative merits.
Anyway, why are you so excited, this is what you have long been calling for.
It is rarely reported in all the breathless media that Scotty’s grand plans for ARENA require legislation to pass both Houses of Parliament. The campaign to send the legislation to Senate committee, if not throw it out altogether, should be starting now.
It requires convincing the uncommitted crossbenchers in the Senate to not support it.
Grassroots campaigns – getting voters in those states to blitz those senators with requests to stop the legislation – are what does it.
Ranting that Albo is not pure enough is virtue signalling at its purest.
Pure WofTAM.
edit: did I say Pure? 🙂
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #98 Thursday, September 17th, 2020 – 10:26 am
So, I guess you mean after Labor has lost the next election?
*sigh*
No it isn’t. It is almost exactly the opposite of what I have been calling for.