No media polling has emerged in the past week, but there have been a welter of reports at state level on private polling – rather too many, one might think, given the political agendas frequently attached to them.
In Victoria, where Liberals provided the Herald Sun with polling showing Labor copping a hiding in four marginal seats last week, Labor-linked firm Redbridge Group has pushed back showing a far happier set of results for the Andrews government. This includes a state voting intention finding with Labor on 39.1%, the Coalition on 34.5% and the Greens on 7.0%, converting into an estimated 53.5-46.5% lead to Labor on two-party preferred. Pollster Kos Samaras offers a few qualifications: that phone polls tend to under-report both Labor and the Nationals, and that the Greens’ inner-city constituency is “difficult to survey”.
On the state government’s road map for emerging from lockdown, 58.1% agree it was motivated by “the best interests of Victorians” with 31.3% disagreeing. Conversely, only 34.1% thought Scott Morrison and the federal government were playing a constructive role, with 50.6% disagreeing, and just 18.2% thought so in relation to the state Liberals, with 57.0% disagreeing. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 2172.
There has also been a flurry of polling ahead of next month’s state election in Queensland, all of it portending bad things for Labor:
• The Australian reported on polling conducted for coal miner New Hope by Omnipoll, which was co-founded by former Newspoll head Martin O’Shannessy, has the following findings in Queensland, targeting four Labor-held seats outside Brisbane. The overall pattern was of an exodus from right-wing minor parties to the Liberal National Party, and of Labor losing a bigger share of the primary vote than they would probably be able to wear:
Ipswich: Labor 44 (-4), LNP 29 (+16), One Nation 5 (-22), Greens 12 (+3).
Keppel: Labor 34 (-9), LNP 40 (+15), One Nation 10 (-16), Greens 7 (+1).
Mackay: Labor 36 (-7), LNP 37 (+12), One Nation 7 (-16), Greens 6 (+1).
Thuringowa: Labor 33 (+1), LNP 40 (+19), One Nation 4 (-16), Greens 7 (+1), Katter’s Australian Party 7 (-9).
This tends to suggest Labor losing more support than they can wear, while the LNP soaks up a huge share of One Nation and KAP support that it had probably been getting back as preferences anyway. Labor won Ipswich by 10.9% over One Nation in 2017, and wouldn’t be troubled there on these numbers; won Keppel by 3.1% over One Nation, and would likely lose to the LNP; won Mackay by 8.3% over the LNP, and would likely hang on; and won Thuringowa over One Nation by 4.1%, and would likely lose.
• The Greens have been circulating results of three inner urban seats conducted by Lonergan Research, where the LNP’s move to preference them ahead of Labor makes them likely winners wherever they can finish second. In the party’s one existing seat of Maiwar, a strong flow of Labor preferences would likely secure victory for incumbent Michael Berkman, on 36% to LNP candidate Lauren Day’s 37%, with Labor on 17%. The party is reportedly well placed to defeat former Deputy Premier Jackie Trad in South Brisbane, where their candidate Amy McMahon has 36% to Trad’s 30%, with Clem Grehan of the LNP on 21%. They also look in the hung on in McConnel, which was once more appositely known as Brisbane Central, Greens candidate Kirsten Lovejoy is on 30%, Labor incumbent Grace Grace is on 29%, and LNP candidate Pinky Singh is on 31%, with 8% undecided. Notes of caution: The Australian cites Labor analysis that has the party expecting to win a very close race; Kevin Bonham discerns a tendency for the Greens to under-perform their own published seat polling; and even the pollster itself cautions that the Greens are “typically over-represented in polls”, as reported by the Courier-Mail. Each of the polls was conducted “over the past month” by phone and SMS from samples of 600.
• A statewide poll conducted by LNP-aligned think tank the Australian Institute for Progress was trumpeted in the Courier-Mail on Monday as a YouGov poll showing Labor on 32%, the LNP 38% and the Greens on 12%. However, it turns out these were the results of the paper’s own YouGov poll from early June that the pollster used as a weighting base for responses to a series of other questions. The Courier-Mail report no longer claims the poll was conducted by YouGov, but continues to present its numbers as fresh results. The new poll would actually appear to have covered barely more than 300 respondents drawn from the organisation’s own online panel, which is quite a lot smaller than those used by YouGov and Essential Research. For what it’s worth, it finds a 56-44 split in favour of the LNP to form government, plus other findings you can read in the pollster’s own report.
898 comments on “Still more affairs of state”
“Retired football players have too much time on their hands. And not enough comprehension of the distinction between facts and fantasy.”
Alternatively, this is just another argument to crack down on head knocks in football.
ItzaDream @ #758 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 4:59 pm
A much-criticized testing recommendation on the C.D.C.’s website last month was not written by C.D.C. scientists.
A heavily criticized recommendation from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last month about who should be tested for the coronavirus was not written by C.D.C. scientists and was posted to the agency’s website despite their serious objections, according to several people familiar with the matter as well as internal documents obtained by The New York Times.
The guidance said it was not necessary to test people without symptoms of Covid-19 even if they had been exposed to the virus. It came at a time when public health experts were pushing for more testing rather than less, and administration officials told The Times that the document was a C.D.C. product and had been revised with input from the agency’s director, Dr. Robert R. Redfield.
But officials told The Times this week that the Department of Health and Human Services did the rewriting itself and then “dropped” it into the C.D.C.’s public website, flouting the agency’s strict scientific review process.
“That was a doc that came from the top down, from the H.H.S. and the task force,” said a federal official with knowledge of the matter, referring to the White House task force on the coronavirus. “That policy does not reflect what many people at the C.D.C. feel should be the policy.”
Adm. Brett Giroir, the administration’s testing coordinator and an assistant secretary at the Department of Health and Human Services, the C.D.C.’s parent organization, said in an interview Thursday that the original draft came from the C.D.C., but he “coordinated editing and input from the scientific and medical members of the task force.”
Over a period of a month, he said, the draft went through about 20 versions, with comments from Dr. Redfield; top members of the White House task force, Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx; and Dr. Scott Atlas, President Trump’s adviser on the coronavirus. The members also presented the document to Vice President Mike Pence, who heads the task force, Admiral Giroir said.
Refer your friends to The New York Times.
They’ll enjoy our special rate of A$1 a week.
C.D.C. staff scientists’ objections to the pre-published document went unheard. A senior C.D.C. official told the scientists, “We do not have the ability to make substantial edits,” according to an email obtained by The Times.
speaking of george soros, i miss the alien lizard people. whatever happened to outrageous conspiracy theories? -a.v.
Taylormade @ #800 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 6:34 pm
1. Leigh Mathtews
2. John Nicholls
3. Alex Jesaulenko
4. Wayne Carey
5. Garry Ablett Senior
I think the ‘most people aren’t actually people but automatons’ theory is right up there – it’s why so many of the ‘Karens’ (male and female) talk about being a ‘living person’.
alfred venison @ #804 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 6:43 pm
George Soros is so 2018. They’ve moved on to Bill Gates in 2020. 🙂
I reckon Polly Farmer should get a guernsey in there somewhere too.
We are protected from the alien lizard people by our beloved Flying Spaghetti Monster.
beats me Rex, i don’t know. something to do with the americans haven’t moved first? something to do with the joel fitzgibbon wedge? -a.v.
Griff @ #809 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 6:47 pm
Scott Morrison!?! 😆
That dutton photo doing the rounds from insiders last week clearly showed dutton phase changing to a lizard person
Don’t forget Jeffrey Epstein. (I refer to the conspiracies related to him – not the very real sexual predator stuff, which I won’t make light of.)
alfred venison @ #810 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 6:48 pm
Something to do with Zali Steggall is one MP in one seat whose election platform revolved around strong action on Climate Change, so she has a permission structure from her electorate to be forceful about it?
Peter Dutton reminds me of an egg and I keep half expecting a chicken to hatch out of his head. 🙂
[…i miss the alien lizard people.’]
Me too, though for some 38 percent of the US electorate apparently not.
i got an anonymous screed in the mail box yesterday, soros was right there. anyway, it seems the alien lizard people have moved on from the british royal family & soros to the board of exxon, which might explain why its off the dow index last week after (nearly) a hundred years. -a.v.
Donald Duck and his three nephews.
C@tmomma @ #808 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 6:47 pm
Champion player. But, never played in a Victorian premiership. Will always be remembered for the 40 metre handball to Billy Goggin in the 1967 Grand final.
I’ve watched a lot of footy. I rate Farmer very highly. But, not in the top 5.
Soros conspiracy theories still do stand out because he’s more a classical conspiracy theory villain. Whereas Gates has the modern “He’s putting microchips in your vaccines” conspiracy angle and Epstein has the shocking “The famous and powerful are in a paedo sex cult” one going, Soros appeals to that classical conspiracy theory that has played well in Europe and the Americas for centuries: “The Jews are behind everything”
This shouldn’t come as a surprise:
I wish him well.
Mavis @ #821 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 7:06 pm
Alreay covered. perhaps you were out at the bar.
well its debatable if she’s doing a good job of it, word is they’ve moved on to the board of exxon! this is getting serious & everyone is distracted by q-anon. i raised this at the conversation & a guy accused me of working for the alien lizard people! this is an outrageous meme. sure, i once considered a consultancy with the bizzaro world (i’m known for thinking outside the box) to help out with widespread outbreaks of law & order on their planet but i returned the brief! -a.v.
Greensborough Growler @ #819 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 7:03 pm
Granted. I just remember him for pioneering a new way of playing the game.
However, we can agree to disagree amicably. 🙂
C@tmomma @ #824 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 7:08 pm
No we can’t!
Greensborough Growler @ #825 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 7:10 pm
Tanya Plibersek going through the motions with her Uni Jobkeeper ‘outrage’.
Highpants casually lets it through to the keeper.
Tanya can go have a lie down now after her massive effort.
Go. Labor. Go.
How to spot Lizard People: https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2013/10/how-spot-reptilians-runing-us-government/354496/
(See GG’s “Dr Seuss” photo at 6:41 pm.)
Could pineapples be a new weapon against COVID-19?
alfred venison @ #810 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 6:48 pm
Something to do with Albo not being up to it?
C@tmomma @ #814 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 6:50 pm
So who does Albo have to get permission from to attack SfM’s agenda ..??
Mavis @ #821 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 7:06 pm
[‘Alreay covered. perhaps you were out at the bar.’]
I choose my company well – never at the bar. They consist of a Master’s in literature from Oxford, a first-class honour’s degree in philosophy from Cambridge. And that just leaves me – a poor cousin indeed!
Jaeger @ #829 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 7:18 pm
Not if they are a suppository.
It’s not a Top 5, it’s a Top 3 plus GG’s 2 favourite Carlton players.
Using a similar method, I’ll replace Nicholls and Jezza with Plugger and Buddy.
Did Albo seek permission to go see MCB ..?
I hope he wasn’t just after a photo op today and wasting MCB’s time …?
Mavis @ #832 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 7:27 pm
Ah, so your the Lonely to Edward Woodward’s. Callen.
Now, I see.
Thank you for putting in a word for the sadly neglected lizard people. They put in so much effort and get so little recognition for their work these days.
you referred to a dictionary to settle a word dispute this morning. i like you 😉
anyway, be careful, the automaton “conspiracy” is probably a crude deflection engineered by the alien lizard people to distract world wide attention as they work on the republican party (admittedly a hard nut to crack as they are both quite similar underneath). some wide eyed zealots maintain the republicans are the original alien lizard people (!) but this is a fantastic supposition unless you’re prepared to countenance that putin himself is an alien lizard person. could be, but there’s no proof positive they’ve moved on russia that i’m aware of. -a.v.
p.s. just point me at one of these 5G nutters, i’ll scare the bejeezuz out of ’em with the (real) truth. -a.v.
Spray @ #834 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 7:28 pm
As I said, personal opinion.
Is there any part of fuck off you don’t understand?
Only a dickhead would parse pre announced personal choices.
GG: I note you’re back to your provocative mode tonight. I sometimes think that you know that can’t differentiate.
What about the conspiracy by Rupert Murdoch and a cabal made up of business leaders and right wing journalists / media figures to block effective action on global heating?
I note my post in response to dear GG is in moderation.
Please slow down, WB.
My top 5 Carlton wooden spoon years.
1. 2002, your first is always special
2. 2018, a classic cos they thought they were coming
Friday, September 18, 2020 at 7:40 pm
[‘Is there any part of fuck off you don’t understand?’]
So, you’re back to your put-downs. As I’ve said before, you’re a first-class prick, scarring to add to the debate.
Greensborough Growler @ #839 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 7:40 pm
Mate, if you took offence at that you’ve got serious issues.
Mavis @ #842 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 8:00 pm
Thank you for your contribution black board monitor.
Do you collect the milk as well?
Spray @ #843 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 8:00 pm
You heard me! Piss off till you can grow some manners.
I’ll be off then.
Greensborough Growler @ #845 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 8:05 pm
Mavis has you down to a T. A complete fuckwit with serious anger issues. Are the people around you safe?