Still more affairs of state

A whole bunch of privately conducted polls from Queensland and Victoria, some more convincing than others.

No media polling has emerged in the past week, but there have been a welter of reports at state level on private polling – rather too many, one might think, given the political agendas frequently attached to them.

In Victoria, where Liberals provided the Herald Sun with polling showing Labor copping a hiding in four marginal seats last week, Labor-linked firm Redbridge Group has pushed back showing a far happier set of results for the Andrews government. This includes a state voting intention finding with Labor on 39.1%, the Coalition on 34.5% and the Greens on 7.0%, converting into an estimated 53.5-46.5% lead to Labor on two-party preferred. Pollster Kos Samaras offers a few qualifications: that phone polls tend to under-report both Labor and the Nationals, and that the Greens’ inner-city constituency is “difficult to survey”.

On the state government’s road map for emerging from lockdown, 58.1% agree it was motivated by “the best interests of Victorians” with 31.3% disagreeing. Conversely, only 34.1% thought Scott Morrison and the federal government were playing a constructive role, with 50.6% disagreeing, and just 18.2% thought so in relation to the state Liberals, with 57.0% disagreeing. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 2172.

There has also been a flurry of polling ahead of next month’s state election in Queensland, all of it portending bad things for Labor:

The Australian reported on polling conducted for coal miner New Hope by Omnipoll, which was co-founded by former Newspoll head Martin O’Shannessy, has the following findings in Queensland, targeting four Labor-held seats outside Brisbane. The overall pattern was of an exodus from right-wing minor parties to the Liberal National Party, and of Labor losing a bigger share of the primary vote than they would probably be able to wear:

Ipswich: Labor 44 (-4), LNP 29 (+16), One Nation 5 (-22), Greens 12 (+3).
Keppel: Labor 34 (-9), LNP 40 (+15), One Nation 10 (-16), Greens 7 (+1).
Mackay: Labor 36 (-7), LNP 37 (+12), One Nation 7 (-16), Greens 6 (+1).
Thuringowa: Labor 33 (+1), LNP 40 (+19), One Nation 4 (-16), Greens 7 (+1), Katter’s Australian Party 7 (-9).

This tends to suggest Labor losing more support than they can wear, while the LNP soaks up a huge share of One Nation and KAP support that it had probably been getting back as preferences anyway. Labor won Ipswich by 10.9% over One Nation in 2017, and wouldn’t be troubled there on these numbers; won Keppel by 3.1% over One Nation, and would likely lose to the LNP; won Mackay by 8.3% over the LNP, and would likely hang on; and won Thuringowa over One Nation by 4.1%, and would likely lose.

• The Greens have been circulating results of three inner urban seats conducted by Lonergan Research, where the LNP’s move to preference them ahead of Labor makes them likely winners wherever they can finish second. In the party’s one existing seat of Maiwar, a strong flow of Labor preferences would likely secure victory for incumbent Michael Berkman, on 36% to LNP candidate Lauren Day’s 37%, with Labor on 17%. The party is reportedly well placed to defeat former Deputy Premier Jackie Trad in South Brisbane, where their candidate Amy McMahon has 36% to Trad’s 30%, with Clem Grehan of the LNP on 21%. They also look in the hung on in McConnel, which was once more appositely known as Brisbane Central, Greens candidate Kirsten Lovejoy is on 30%, Labor incumbent Grace Grace is on 29%, and LNP candidate Pinky Singh is on 31%, with 8% undecided. Notes of caution: The Australian cites Labor analysis that has the party expecting to win a very close race; Kevin Bonham discerns a tendency for the Greens to under-perform their own published seat polling; and even the pollster itself cautions that the Greens are “typically over-represented in polls”, as reported by the Courier-Mail. Each of the polls was conducted “over the past month” by phone and SMS from samples of 600.

• A statewide poll conducted by LNP-aligned think tank the Australian Institute for Progress was trumpeted in the Courier-Mail on Monday as a YouGov poll showing Labor on 32%, the LNP 38% and the Greens on 12%. However, it turns out these were the results of the paper’s own YouGov poll from early June that the pollster used as a weighting base for responses to a series of other questions. The Courier-Mail report no longer claims the poll was conducted by YouGov, but continues to present its numbers as fresh results. The new poll would actually appear to have covered barely more than 300 respondents drawn from the organisation’s own online panel, which is quite a lot smaller than those used by YouGov and Essential Research. For what it’s worth, it finds a 56-44 split in favour of the LNP to form government, plus other findings you can read in the pollster’s own report.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

898 comments on “Still more affairs of state”

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  1. guytaur

    Whatever company they get an incentive to get an announcement presser during the election campaign it would totally destroy the Labor is run by the Greens and destroys jobs argument the LNP run.

    And all the other employment opportunities that would open up.

    Your 100% right, it would also destroy climate change as Green/Liberal wedge. Where would the Greens go from there. I am not being a smart ass, I am asking a serious question.

  2. Fulvio Sammut @ #747 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 4:47 pm

    “hands on the wheel and pay attention”

    Kinda defeats the purpose of having a self driving car, I would have thought.

    Kinda does. Musk aims to take over the Uber and Ride Share Market (amongst other things) with driverless cars picking you up, dropping you off, onto the next job. There then would be no need to own a car with everyone zipping around in Musk Moving Machines.

  3. https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/letter-from-queensland-premier-to-prime-minister-requested-urgent-help-in-january/news-story/1c3f00ab0ead8c0c04412d608477bf31

    Letter from Queensland Premier to Prime Minister requested urgent help in January
    A bombshell letter from the start of the pandemic shows the PM did not act on “a matter of national importance” surrounding COVID-19.
    Samantha Maiden September 18, 20203:56pm

    Scott Morrison was warned that COVID-19 contact tracers urgently needed airlines to keep more data on travellers in January but failed to secure agreement on the mandated collection of information for travellers until today’s national cabinet.

    Correspondence obtained by news.com.au confirms that Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk wrote to the Prime Minister on January 31, just days after the first confirmed case in Australia on the “matter of national importance”.

    As the states dealt with the influx of international passengers, they were shocked to learn that incoming travellers’ passenger cards were essentially thrown in the bin or unable to be accessed on privacy grounds.

  4. FredNK

    Real action on the environment is a winner. I don’t care who gains the political advantage.

    I want it to be the left because it would help workers more.
    Get good policies in place companies like Apple with 2030 zero net emissions policy will find Australia more attractive to invest.

  5. MORRISON SUPPORTS FOSSIL FUELS OVER SOUND ECONOMICS

    Zali Steggall MP is calling for the Morrison government’s decision to reset the COVID-19 recovery with gas to be rejected.

    “This government is interfering in the market and not supporting the renewable industry,” she said.

    “Today the Morrison government has captain’s picked the technology of gas, whilst blackmailing private companies on an economic decision that is widely condemned by scientists, economists and investors.

    “This is completely against any kind of free market liberalism and shows how far Scott Morrison is willing to go to support fossil fuels over sound economic management and jobs.

    “We need to transition away from coal and gas to mitigate increasing temperatures caused by climate change. Yet we have a government that is willing to ignore that renewables deliver more than double the jobs than fossil fuels, as well as disregarding the science, the industry and even investors.”

    https://www.zalisteggall.com.au/zali_steggall_mp_criticises_the_morrison_government_s_gas_plans

  6. Has this got any airplay?

    Reports emerged late on Thursday that guidance about the novel coronavirus testing posted last month on the website of the US CDC was not written by the agency’s scientists and was posted despite their objections. The New York Times reported the story, citing people familiar with the matter and internal documents. The guidance said it was not necessary to test people with no symptoms of Covid-19, even if they had been exposed to the virus. The agency’s previous position recommended testing all people who had close contact with anyone diagnosed with Covid-19. The reversal shocked doctors and politicians and prompted accusations of political interference.

    (Guardian)

    There’s a long list of things to call this, and you don’t need any prompting from me.

  7. FredNZk

    I reject your premise that it’s the Greens creating a wedge.

    It’s Labor and only Labor self wedging for proven political marketing failure.

  8. alfred venison @ #758 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 4:58 pm

    MORRISON SUPPORTS FOSSIL FUELS OVER SOUND ECONOMICS

    Zali Steggall MP is calling for the Morrison government’s decision to reset the COVID-19 recovery with gas to be rejected.

    “This government is interfering in the market and not supporting the renewable industry,” she said.

    “Today the Morrison government has captain’s picked the technology of gas, whilst blackmailing private companies on an economic decision that is widely condemned by scientists, economists and investors.

    “This is completely against any kind of free market liberalism and shows how far Scott Morrison is willing to go to support fossil fuels over sound economic management and jobs.

    “We need to transition away from coal and gas to mitigate increasing temperatures caused by climate change. Yet we have a government that is willing to ignore that renewables deliver more than double the jobs than fossil fuels, as well as disregarding the science, the industry and even investors.”

    https://www.zalisteggall.com.au/zali_steggall_mp_criticises_the_morrison_government_s_gas_plans

    Why couldn’t Albanese have said that ?

  9. guytaur says:
    Friday, September 18, 2020 at 5:05 pm

    FredNZk

    I reject your premise that it’s the Greens creating a wedge.

    It’s Labor and only Labor self wedging for proven political marketing failure.

    We have to agree to differ.

  10. Jordan Shanks’ stated position has been to harass Barilaro out of office, and that is what has just happened.

    I can’t see Barilaro coming back.

    Jordie will be crowing. Probably tonight.

    Last week I theorized that Barilaro would not be causing all the trouble he’s causing without support from with the anti-Berejiklian ranks of the Liberal party. We’ve already seen Treasurer Perrotet come out specifically in support of both Barilaro and his position. Yesterday the Police Minister, David Elliot “buried the hatchet” with Barilaro over a few Scotches in the office. These two are pretty powerful ministers. There are probably more.

    Barilaro laid his entire career on the line, and those of his National party ministerial colleagues by threatening to make the Coalition majority government a Liberal minority one. He then humiliated the Liberals by forcing them to vote confidence in him. You don’t make that kind of trouble without friends and backers in higher places than just your own party.

    What went wrong with the plot is anybody’s guess. But I just can’t accept that the root cause was some kind of mental instability on Barilaro’s part. It seems too premeditated for that.

  11. FredNK

    I can agree to differ.

    What I think would be interesting. Who are the better marketers. Murdoch or Apple?

    Even without getting Apple Labor can use Apple as an example of a job creating company that has that 2030 zero emissions target. Apple is a lot harder for the LNP to attack than Labor or the Greens. So many IPhones.

  12. Senator Penny Wong, Labor’s foreign affairs spokesperson, is talking to the ABC and she’s not interested in giving the Prime Minister Scott Morrison any credit for raising the caps on international arrivals.

    She’s saying Morrison was “dragged” to the agreement with the states because of bad publicity driven by people stranded overseas.

    Morrison and the government had been “pretty focused on having a go at state governments” and the extra 1500 arrivals to be staged over the coming weeks was not enough.

    Wong said it wasn’t right that the caps should be shared responsibility, and that it was the government, and not states, who were responsible for borders and quarantine. She said:

    He was always very keen to tell us how he’d stop the boats.

    This is interesting from Wong in the light of the PM’s presser today, when he went to great lengths to assure us how well the Committee was working, and how in spite of some disagreements the outcome was always the best one, and everything was really hunky-dory. Smoothing over reality, I’d say.

  13. Bushfire Bill

    It makes a nice tidy end to the whole fuster cluck though. Nothing to see here, it was just a lone ‘madman’ who lost the plot is all. Back to happy Coalition family time.

  14. Edit. BB and Poroti

    I think you nailed it 🙂

    Of course if mental illness is just an excuse that’s not good. Associating mental illness with failure.

  15. My guess is the stress Barilaro is feeling is about self interest because he’s a wealthy property mogul in his own right and his properties may not be worth as much as he bought them. Koala’s must die in the cause of his self interest.

  16. Leroy,

    That news.com.au article reports on the first serious missile lobbed back by the Premiers. I suspect that the leaking of Gaetjens’ communique re the ADF in Victoria was not well received and this is the response.

    There is more ammunition in that “National Cabinet” no doubt.

  17. I can understand needing mental health help – The guy wanted to kill Koalas! If it had been puppies, people would have called him nuts.

  18. And while I do not in the slightest agree with Barilaro’s position regarding land controls, I will always be empathetic to a person who says that they are in need of mental health support.

    Honi soit qui mal y pense

  19. Victoria @ #778 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 5:44 pm

    Report as linked by Leroy is rather interesting.
    The fibs and Murdoch press have been going at the Qld Premier for past few weeks. Is this a return of fire from Qld with more to come if they dont lay off?

    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/letter-from-queensland-premier-to-prime-minister-requested-urgent-help-in-january/news-story/1c3f00ab0ead8c0c04412d608477bf31

    History shows that PMs that get the Premiers offside are dead ducks.

  20. Want to mainline on the purist of fuckwittery ? Rupert’s places is always the place to go. Come on down the Daily Telegraph to reveal ‘the truth’.
    …………………………………………………………………….
    China used social media to trick world into harsh lockdowns: study

    JAMES MORROW Strict coronavirus lockdowns which have crippled the world’s economy were encouraged by a sophisticated Chinese propaganda effort that used Twitter and Facebook to spread fear and panic about COVID-19 and admiration for Beijing’s authoritarian approach, a new study claims.

  21. It won’t be long before Morrison follows in Trump’s footsteps. Morrison is already preparing for an advertising campaign promoting “Aussie values”. (Or perhaps this advertising blitz is Trump inspired.)

    Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump railed against what he described as “the liberal indoctrination of America’s youth” during a Constitution Day speech on Thursday, marking his latest attempt to inflame the culture wars raging in America ahead of the election.

    In a speech rife with race-baiting and dog whistles, the President decried “left-wing mobs” and claimed their tactics were comparable to anti-American propaganda used by foreign adversaries.

    “We must clear away the web of twisted lies in our schools and classrooms and teach our children the magnificent truth about our country. We want our sons and daughters to know that they are the citizens of the most exceptional nation in the history of the world,” Trump said at the White House Conference on American History at the National Archives Museum.

    He also claimed that the left is “attempting to destroy” Martin Luther King Jr.’s vision for every child to not be judged by their skin color but by the content of their character.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/17/politics/donald-trump-national-archives-patriotic-education/index.html

  22. Griff @ #781 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 5:47 pm

    And while I do not in the slightest agree with Barilaro’s position regarding land controls, I will always be empathetic to a person who says that they are in need of mental health support.

    Honi soit qui mal y pense

    Too many men use mental health as a catchall get out of jail convenience claim when they are basically using using it as a crutch.

    I’m fine that you accept the claims at face value. But, you have to understand that some people , like me are rightly dubious.

  23. AFL legend Gary Ablett senior has posted a lengthy rant in which he details a series of unfounded conspiracy theories, including claims the Illuminati deliberately created and released COVID-19.

    The claims came in a 27-minute YouTube video entitled ‘What’s really going on and who’s behind it all’, recorded while driving.

    “We’re talking about the Illuminati, Freemasonry fraternities, secret society people who are behind all this. It’s been going on now since the plans all started with the Illuminati way back in 1776,” the Geelong great said.

  24. Great to see the Illuminati getting a mention , oh and the Freemasons. Those poor people have been feeling quite left out lately. Good to see a bit of old school nut jobbery have a run instead of Gates,Soros ,5 G etc etc.

  25. Gary Ablett used to live in the house just up the road for us. I’m pretty sure he was responsible for a lot of the beer cans I took to the tip when we first moved here….

  26. Spare a thought for the ACT Liberals whose slogan is “Lower taxes, better services”. They are promising to spend $$$ on a whole range of things, thereby creating a huge gap between revenue and expenditure.

    How do they solve this dilemma? Simple – entice more people to become ACT residents who would then presumably pay taxes but not expect to receive any services. Sounds logical.

  27. ” How do [the ACT Liberals] solve this dilemma? Simple” … by lying. Elect them and you’ll find out what they’re going to cut and what they’re going to sell off to their mates.

  28. zoomster @ #790 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 6:10 pm

    Gary Ablett used to live in the house just up the road for us. I’m pretty sure he was responsible for a lot of the beer cans I took to the tip when we first moved here….

    That would be 1983 which was the year between when he left hawtorn and joined Geelong.

    Regardless of his kookiness, one of the best five players I ever saw play AFL.

  29. mikehilliard @ #756 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 4:58 pm

    Mental health hey. Must have seen Friendly Jordies clip.

    friendlyjordies said today that he has more damning accusations to level at John Barilaro next Friday.

    I’m thinking that Barilaro got wind of this and may be getting out of the way so when it happens the Liberals and Nationals can go into high dudgeon mode about, how dare he do this to a man with mental health issues! The Liberals have been known to use that as a redoubt from scrutiny before.

  30. Holdenhillbilly @ #784 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 5:59 pm

    AFL legend Gary Ablett senior has posted a lengthy rant in which he details a series of unfounded conspiracy theories, including claims the Illuminati deliberately created and released COVID-19.

    The claims came in a 27-minute YouTube video entitled ‘What’s really going on and who’s behind it all’, recorded while driving.

    “We’re talking about the Illuminati, Freemasonry fraternities, secret society people who are behind all this. It’s been going on now since the plans all started with the Illuminati way back in 1776,” the Geelong great said.

    Retired football players have too much time on their hands. And not enough comprehension of the distinction between facts and fantasy.

  31. Victoria @ #776 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 5:44 pm

    Report as linked by Leroy is rather interesting.
    The fibs and Murdoch press have been going at the Qld Premier for past few weeks. Is this a return of fire from Qld with more to come if they dont lay off?

    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/letter-from-queensland-premier-to-prime-minister-requested-urgent-help-in-january/news-story/1c3f00ab0ead8c0c04412d608477bf31

    Morrison broke ‘National Cabinet’ solidarity weeks ago, it’s long past time the Labor states stopped playing nice and returned serve.

  32. poroti @ #781 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 5:49 pm

    Want to mainline on the purist of fuckwittery ? Rupert’s places is always the place to go. Come on down the Daily Telegraph to reveal ‘the truth’.
    …………………………………………………………………….
    China used social media to trick world into harsh lockdowns: study

    JAMES MORROW Strict coronavirus lockdowns which have crippled the world’s economy were encouraged by a sophisticated Chinese propaganda effort that used Twitter and Facebook to spread fear and panic about COVID-19 and admiration for Beijing’s authoritarian approach, a new study claims.

    ‘A new study’, by whom? Who is behind the people who did the study and who funds them?

    Oh, and COVID-19 is real and it is deadly, so our politicians took medical advice that the best way to defeat it was to shut down the economy. No taking the lead from a Chinese social media campaign about it. Also, what the author likely hasn’t acknowledged is that China’s economy is heavily-reliant on the economies of the rest of the world to buy their stuff and if they, the Chinese, were encouraging other economies to shut down, as alledged, then they were doing themselves out of income!

    Sheesh, if this is the best Murdoch can do atm, then they are losing their touch. 🙂

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