No media polling has emerged in the past week, but there have been a welter of reports at state level on private polling – rather too many, one might think, given the political agendas frequently attached to them.
In Victoria, where Liberals provided the Herald Sun with polling showing Labor copping a hiding in four marginal seats last week, Labor-linked firm Redbridge Group has pushed back showing a far happier set of results for the Andrews government. This includes a state voting intention finding with Labor on 39.1%, the Coalition on 34.5% and the Greens on 7.0%, converting into an estimated 53.5-46.5% lead to Labor on two-party preferred. Pollster Kos Samaras offers a few qualifications: that phone polls tend to under-report both Labor and the Nationals, and that the Greens’ inner-city constituency is “difficult to survey”.
On the state government’s road map for emerging from lockdown, 58.1% agree it was motivated by “the best interests of Victorians” with 31.3% disagreeing. Conversely, only 34.1% thought Scott Morrison and the federal government were playing a constructive role, with 50.6% disagreeing, and just 18.2% thought so in relation to the state Liberals, with 57.0% disagreeing. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 2172.
There has also been a flurry of polling ahead of next month’s state election in Queensland, all of it portending bad things for Labor:
• The Australian reported on polling conducted for coal miner New Hope by Omnipoll, which was co-founded by former Newspoll head Martin O’Shannessy, has the following findings in Queensland, targeting four Labor-held seats outside Brisbane. The overall pattern was of an exodus from right-wing minor parties to the Liberal National Party, and of Labor losing a bigger share of the primary vote than they would probably be able to wear:
Ipswich: Labor 44 (-4), LNP 29 (+16), One Nation 5 (-22), Greens 12 (+3).
Keppel: Labor 34 (-9), LNP 40 (+15), One Nation 10 (-16), Greens 7 (+1).
Mackay: Labor 36 (-7), LNP 37 (+12), One Nation 7 (-16), Greens 6 (+1).
Thuringowa: Labor 33 (+1), LNP 40 (+19), One Nation 4 (-16), Greens 7 (+1), Katter’s Australian Party 7 (-9).
This tends to suggest Labor losing more support than they can wear, while the LNP soaks up a huge share of One Nation and KAP support that it had probably been getting back as preferences anyway. Labor won Ipswich by 10.9% over One Nation in 2017, and wouldn’t be troubled there on these numbers; won Keppel by 3.1% over One Nation, and would likely lose to the LNP; won Mackay by 8.3% over the LNP, and would likely hang on; and won Thuringowa over One Nation by 4.1%, and would likely lose.
• The Greens have been circulating results of three inner urban seats conducted by Lonergan Research, where the LNP’s move to preference them ahead of Labor makes them likely winners wherever they can finish second. In the party’s one existing seat of Maiwar, a strong flow of Labor preferences would likely secure victory for incumbent Michael Berkman, on 36% to LNP candidate Lauren Day’s 37%, with Labor on 17%. The party is reportedly well placed to defeat former Deputy Premier Jackie Trad in South Brisbane, where their candidate Amy McMahon has 36% to Trad’s 30%, with Clem Grehan of the LNP on 21%. They also look in the hung on in McConnel, which was once more appositely known as Brisbane Central, Greens candidate Kirsten Lovejoy is on 30%, Labor incumbent Grace Grace is on 29%, and LNP candidate Pinky Singh is on 31%, with 8% undecided. Notes of caution: The Australian cites Labor analysis that has the party expecting to win a very close race; Kevin Bonham discerns a tendency for the Greens to under-perform their own published seat polling; and even the pollster itself cautions that the Greens are “typically over-represented in polls”, as reported by the Courier-Mail. Each of the polls was conducted “over the past month” by phone and SMS from samples of 600.
• A statewide poll conducted by LNP-aligned think tank the Australian Institute for Progress was trumpeted in the Courier-Mail on Monday as a YouGov poll showing Labor on 32%, the LNP 38% and the Greens on 12%. However, it turns out these were the results of the paper’s own YouGov poll from early June that the pollster used as a weighting base for responses to a series of other questions. The Courier-Mail report no longer claims the poll was conducted by YouGov, but continues to present its numbers as fresh results. The new poll would actually appear to have covered barely more than 300 respondents drawn from the organisation’s own online panel, which is quite a lot smaller than those used by YouGov and Essential Research. For what it’s worth, it finds a 56-44 split in favour of the LNP to form government, plus other findings you can read in the pollster’s own report.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #694 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 2:47 pm
Qld and NSW will continue to accept dirty money for their thermal coal exports for as long as they can.
C@tmomma @ #692 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 2:45 pm
Please do us all a favour and block my posts, as you proclaim loudly and often that you do (but we all know you really don’t).
“ Climate. Refugees and Gay Marriage combined destroyed Tony Abbott’s Australian political career.”
Nonesense. Abbott destroying his own government in 2 years through hubris and then making a pest of himself for the next 4 years destroyed his political career. Conservative politicians who had similar, or even more extreme, positions on the areas you have nominated have flourished over that same period.
You really need to stop talking crap. Actually. I shouldn’t be responding to your crap. I’ll stop for now. TGIF!!!
“ Qld and NSW will continue to accept dirty money for their thermal coal exports for as long as they can.”
Yeah. Right on comrade. Fuck NSW and Queensland for taking mining royalties to pay for frivolities like school education and hospitals. They should be pure … and allow Jakarta and Brasília get all the royalties …
Edited. You know what. GGF Rex. Back in 2007 when Stein released his report and called for an 80% reduction by 2050 it was thought by most to be rather extreme. Now net zero 2050 is the accepted position in the mainstream. For state governments to be actually legislating for that, without any meaningful support (but a ton of interference) from the feds since 2013 is pretty remarkable. Meanwhile the likes of Rex simply sit on the sidelines, thieving oxygen from humanity and just carp.
Spray @ #693 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 2:45 pm
Cud recommends the work of Stephen Duckett. Here’s a report he wrote for The Grattan Institute:
https://grattan.edu.au/report/how-australia-can-get-to-zero-covid-19-cases/
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Friday, September 18, 2020 at 2:54 pm
The other thing to note about Queensland’s plan is that Queensland started this whole carbon reduction strategy a long way back in the straight when com-are to the other big eastern states: it had the largest collection of coal fired power stations of any, without recourse to the snowy mountain hydro scheme for example. It was also a late responder to taking up large scale solar and wind farms. For it to now be in a position to achieve 50% renewables by 2030 is pretty astonishing.
And what do we get from firefox this morning, someone’s tweet trying to bring home the GAS wedge.
What did we learn from Dandy Murray yesterday, Queensland has the youngest coal fired station. Queensland moving so quickly really is something
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Friday, September 18, 2020 at 2:54 pm
The other thing to note about Queensland’s plan is that Queensland started this whole carbon reduction strategy a long way back in the straight when com-are to the other big eastern states: it had the largest collection of coal fired power stations of any, without recourse to the snowy mountain hydro scheme for example. It was also a late responder to taking up large scale solar and wind farms. For it to now be in a position to achieve 50% renewables by 2030 is pretty astonishing.
And what do we get from firefox this morning, someone’s tweet trying to bring home the GAS wedge.
What did we learn from Dandy Murray yesterday, Queensland has the youngest coal fired station. Queensland moving so quickly really is something
Andrew_Earlwood @ #703 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 3:01 pm
Just don’t want them pretending to be environmentally pure when it’s not the truth.
Are you saying they’re too stupid to come up with better ways of generating money to pay for social necessities ..??
The fossil fuel cartel are lovin’ your pro bono work rexy
Player One @ #702 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 2:56 pm
Still talking out of your backside I see, P1. Your posts have been blocked by me for the abovementioned reasons, and similarly to that opinion of your posts which Mr Bowe gave to you last night, for a very long time now. I only unblocked you again today to see what you had to say after that. And it seems to me that you are taking zero notice of it and not modifying your behaviour accordingly, just continuing to be your bumptious, arrogant, know-it-all self. Some people never learn.
Oh, and, even though I bristle at people telling me what to do, which you seem to have no hesitation in doing, I will, indeed, be blocking you again. Trepanning would be more beneficial to my mental state than having to read your repetitive, self-serving and uninformative posts.
Look, I really should dash, but following the great anti Labor harrumph over gas it seems to me that the woke and the basically evil faux left are missing a salient point in this ‘debate’: whilst renewables are very likely to provide enough generated power to match the power lost as old coal fired power stations are decommissioned renewables need storage to be build at the same scale to make the grid still reliable. Whilst there are a lot of ‘proof of concept’ technologies out there like they big battery’, pumped hydro etc I just don’t think that enough has been done to actually scale that up to come on line quickly enough over the next 30 years. Even if it is feasible, there is a real risk that storage gaps will emerge in the transition period. For that reason having more gas power makes sense. It would allow for the early retirement of coal power and buy us sufficient time to build not just the renewable generators, but the storage capacity required. Even if I’m wrong on that, it would not hurt at all to have a large amount of gas power as an energy reserve. Just in case there is some extraordinary demand, or some natural disaster or – these days – some human sabotage of the main power grid.
So, by all means build gas power stations. But let’s all agree to accelerate renewables and also that vital storage component in the network as well. Which, as I can see seems to be where Labor is coming from. Even butler and Fitzgibbon seem to be on the same page and any differences are really about emphasis and timing.
“ Are you saying they’re too stupid to come up with better ways of generating money to pay for social necessities ..??”
Vertical fiscal imbalance. Check it out.
It’s a start
Anthony Albanese
@AlboMP
·
2h
He wouldn’t take responsibility during the bushfires. He wouldn’t take responsibility for aged care. He won’t take responsibility for Aussies stuck overseas.
He’s the Prime Minister. He’s supposed to be in charge
https://mobile.twitter.com/AlboMP/status/1306788387014270978
I see Fossil Fuel Fitzy was in the paper this morning urging support for SfM’s agenda.
The cartel is winning.
Cat
No matter what you think of P1 your reply is proof you don’t use block on P1
Andrew Earlwood
There is your problem. Not learning anything from Abbott’s loss in a Blue Ribbon seat.
Now you have Liberal voters more realistic about climate change and science than you are. I didn’t even try and pretend it was one issue
C@tmomma @ #710 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 3:13 pm
Right. See you on the flip side. Again.
Hey C@t and BH
Thanks for your thoughts.
Bloody cat (minding for a friend) just killed a wattle bird.
Looking for alternate accommodation.
Talk later.
Exactly, Andrew_Earlwood. And pretty much what I said to Albanese this morning when I shot him a DM on Twitter. Manufacturing, if we want to keep it in Australia and not see it go overseas, where they would probably just use our own gas against us with their cheaper labour, needs to be powered with gas, thankfully no longer with coal-fired power, as Bill Shorten pointed out before the last federal election, and as I have pointed to with Germany not even phasing out its coal-fired power plants until the mid-30s. I think Australia will be there before then but I don’t think the grid integration of Renewables, as Dandy Murray pointed out, will be completed as a project by then, so we need something to fill the gap as we work as hard and as fast as possible as a nation to get it done.
Victoria @ #714 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 3:16 pm
Vic,
I think PM stands for ‘Prime Marketer’ with Morrison.
Andrew Earlwood
If I was to nominate one issue that undid Tony Abbott’s career it’s exactly the same one Daniel Andrews is using to destroy Morrison’s career.
Fantasy loses to reality.
Oh well, at least I learned a new word today. Trepanning. Hope William doesn’t find out about it.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #711 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 3:14 pm
I don’t think they are. Did you read the David Crowe article in the SMH article that was being widely quoted this morning? Yes, he may be overstating the divisions for his own purposes, but it is clear the ALP are not a bunch of happy campers just at the moment … which is of course why Morrison and Co are so busy wielding the wedge. Doing so will remain an effective weapon until Labor comes up with a policy. And of course Fitzgibbon has gone public again saying he still wants Labor to accept the Liberal policy.
guytaur,
Do you have to keep proving how clueless you are? And I only just saw a bit of your comment on the dashboard as I have you blocked as well, as life’s too short to get on a merry-go-round with you every day and achieve approximately zero enlightenment, however, you do realise you can block someone and then unblock them for a minute to check out what they have said to someone else if it piques your interest, or in general, don’t you? Then immediately block them again? For a long time? Don’t you?
Anyhoo, don’t reply because I won’t see it! 😆
Spray @ #722 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 3:29 pm
He is all-knowing and all-seeing, so he probably will.
Cat
:lol 😆 😆 😆
Another way of making my point is to say listen to Bob Carr
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/02/joe-bidens-bold-climate-policies-would-leave-australia-behind
guytaur @ #726 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 3:31 pm
Don’t worry, guytaur – C@t’s can see through walls!
Andrew_Earlwood
The important thing is the government should not build them. There a pricing mechanisms already in play that will encourage the building of peaking gas power stations if they are required.
I don’t believe it is an issue one way or another. The industry does not want them. It was nothing more than an announce-able as the foundation of the next Green/Liberal wedge.
Good ol’ Scrott the Macavity of responsibility.
.
.
McGowan is now addressing the lifting of arrivals caps, announced earlier today…………………………“We have been asking for federal Government support, given quarantine is a federal government responsibility under the Constitution. However, the Federal Government is of the view that states need to continue to manage quarantine. “
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/sep/18/coronavirus-australia-live-national-cabinet-split-over-quarantine-and-flight-caps-latest-updates
If this guy hadn’t been convicted of fraud offences in 2010, the chances of him being charged & convicted with bank robberies committed in the ’70 would’ve been remote:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-trader-who-robbed-banks-in-the-1970s-after-boozy-lunches-jailed-20200918-p55wx6.html
What’s this country coming to where you can’t commit the perfect crime(?).
McGowan is now addressing the lifting of arrivals caps, announced earlier today…………………………“We have been asking for federal Government support, given quarantine is a federal government responsibility under the Constitution. However, the Federal Government is of the view that states need to continue to manage quarantine.
About bloody time it was said. Good on him.
Spray
Step away from the “Trepanning For Dummies” and “Home Trepanning ” guides 🙂
FredNK
P1 is right. Get a good environment policy.
Be in no doubt. Labor will be attacked as being job destroyers because they are for the environment.
As we have seen before. Being for manufacturing being for job creation renewables won’t stop the deniers toxic campaign against facts.
All I am saying is go with the environment.
It worked for Kevin Rudd. It did not work for him by being seen as weak.
That line by him.
“The biggest moral challenge of our time”
Is still a great line. We are now seeing it again with Donald Trump Scott Morrison and Boris Johnson. Denying science and the actions the models tell you to take has dire consequences.
It’s the same political toolkit on both sides of the debate.
guytaur
It is my view, if trump loses the whole game changes. The next tariff war will be fought over the carbon content of your exports..
Morrison announcement is for the Queensland election. Anyone who thinks Labors carbon policy should be stated before the US election is full of shit.
mikehilliard @ #682 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 2:25 pm
But smart enough to do it in a Tesla. Any other car and he’s a candidate for organ donations.
Labor could do worse than team up with Apple to highlight climate policy. A new Apple store or even better manufacturing facility would make a great impact.
https://www.apple.com/au/environment/
FredNK
I specifically stated for the Federal election. Just don’t let Queensland get in the way. There it’s Covid and borders not the environment. Giving Labor the advantage.
After Jordie’s spray on Barilaro, check out the comments on a Google search.
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=dungowan+estate+oallen
ItzaDream
Sometimes things go horribly wrong, even in a Tesla 😉
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/feb/25/tesla-driver-autopilot-crash
Regarding the Tesla discussion.
One of the conditions Tesla imposes is to have hands on the wheel and paying attention.
They need to update their sensors to force people to keep doing so.
Premier Steven Marshall’s handling of the COVID crisis has dramatically boosted his own political fortunes, as the Liberals wrestle back a dominant election-winning poll lead.
An exclusive Advertiser-YouGov poll, to mark 18 months until the 2022 election, shows Mr Marshall has shrugged off perks scandals and outbreaks of Liberal division to take a commanding 53-47 lead over Labor.
He’s also surged to a breakaway preferred premier lead.
The result is a full reversal of the 53-47 lead Labor had six just months ago, at the half time point in the current electoral cycle, and follows SA’s success in crushing the COVID curve.
The Liberals also record a massive 46 per cent primary vote, a huge increase on the 38 per cent they scored in the drought-breaking election win of 2018.
Nosediving support for former senator Nick Xenophon’s SA Best and collapse of the Australian Conservatives has aided Mr Marshall, who would be poised to win an extra seat at an election held this weekend.
A draft redraw of SA electoral boundaries last month significantly shaved the Liberals’ advantage in several key marginal seats, giving Labor boosted hope of a historic victory.
However, today’s poll marks a 1.1 per cent overall swing to the Liberals since 2018.
That would be enough for all of Mr Marshall’s current MPs to be returned at an election and, if applied uniformly, the Liberals would also take the Fleurieu seat of Mawson from Labor.
Such a result would give the Liberals up to 26 seats, a clear majority of three in Parliament.
As preferred leader, Mr Marshall has surged to a daylight lead during the COVID crisis.
He is now the favoured choice of 54 per cent of SA, with Mr Malinauskas on 26 per cent.
Mr Malinauskas was narrowly behind Mr Marshall by 36-38 in March, a strong showing for a new opposition leader.
The number of people unable to pick between the two has fallen from 26 to 20 per cent in the COVID period, as each significantly lifts their public profile.
A strong 68 per cent of respondents are satisfied with Mr Marshall’s performance as premier. That includes 58 per cent of intending Labor voters.
A solid 44 per cent are happy with Mr Malinauskas’ performance.
However, a third of respondents say they don’t know enough about Mr Malinauskas to say how good a job he is doing. That suggests a struggle to effectively cut-through, but that he still has the capacity to convert supporters in a formal campaign.
frednk @ #735 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 3:56 pm
Do you think there is any chance they could state their carbon policy before our election?
There was a story way back when cruise control first became popular.
Police attended the scene of a roll over accident on a motorway in the US. The only occupant a man in the rear seat, wearing a seatbelt and unconscious. Initially they thought the driver had fled the scene until a few days later the man regained consciousness. It turned out the driver needed to get a tissue but they were in a box on the back seat. Setting the car to cruise control he climbed into the back to get the tissues only to realise the car was veering off the road. He just had time to get a seatbelt on before bang! Asked why he did this he admitted he thought cruise control would totally drive the car.
Anyhow, something like that. Probably an urban legend.
“ Anyone who thinks Labors carbon policy should be stated before the US election is full of shit.
Do you think there is any chance they could state their carbon policy before our election?”
Yep. About a 100% chance, I reckon.
Labors climate policy will be whatever the AWU and CFMEU wants it to be.
“hands on the wheel and pay attention”
Kinda defeats the purpose of having a self driving car, I would have thought.
Rex Douglas says:
Friday, September 18, 2020 at 4:41 pm
Labors climate policy will be whatever the AWU and CFMEU wants it to be.
And what exactly is wrong with groups representing workers having an input into policy? That aside, if carbon content of your manufactured goods is the basis of a trade war, their view is going to be totally different, their input totally different.
Rex
The AWU could be very happy with an Apple Manufacturing plant. It’s not just Tesla out there.
Whatever company Labor get an incentive to get an announcement presser during the election campaign. It would totally destroy the Labor is run by the Greens and destroys jobs argument the LNP run.
FS
Tesla marketing calls it Autopilot. It’s not yet.
Level 5 self driving is still a way off in our future.