Something for everybody

Great polling for Labor in Victoria, catastrophic polling for Labor in Victoria, and a mixed bag of federal seat polling — but seemingly a very clear picture in Western Australia.

Scattered accounts of opinion polling ahead of what looks like being a lean week for it, with both Newspoll and Essential Research entering an off-week in their respective cycles:

• Some seriously mixed signals coming out of Victoria, starting with Roy Morgan, who have published results of an SMS poll conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 2325 that records a 70-30 favourable split for Daniel Andrews’ performance as Premier. Respondents also split 63-37 against allowing restaurants, hotels and cafes to provide table service, 54-46 against ending the rule limiting travel to within 5 kilometres of a person’s home, 63-37 against an end to the 9pm curfew, although there is a 59-41 split in favour of allowing Melbourne residents to visit the homes of immediate family members, and a 76-24 split in favour of state government compensation for businesses forced to close.

• The contrast is provided by a Herald Sun report in Liberal internal polling by MediaReach of five marginal Victorian state seats, showing devastating swings against Labor. The Liberals are credited with leads of 70.6-29.4 in Bayswater (50.4-49.6 to Labor at the 2018 election), 68.0-32.0 in Hawthorn (50.4-49.6 to Labor), 54.5-45.5 in Monbulk (58.6-41.4), 54.9-45.1 in Mount Waverley (51.8-48.2) and 57.9-42.1 in South Barwon (54.6-45.4). Daniel Andrews is nonetheless said to have preferred premier leads over Michael O’Brien of 46-37 in South Barwon, 43-37 in Mount Waverley and 39-29 in Monbulk, with O’Brien leading 46-33 in Hawthorn and 37-33 in Bayswater. The polling was conducted on Tuesday from samples of between 523 and 694.

• Labor-linked firm Redbridge Group has published polling from three Labor-held federal seats, which collectively suggest Labor has gone backwards since last year’s election. Including results for a follow-up prompt for the initially undecided, and applying preference flows from the last election, I estimate the two-party results at 54-46 to the LNP in Lilley, where Labor’s margin is 0.6%; 54.7-45.3 to Liberal in Hunter, where the margin is 3.0%; but 53-47 to Labor in Corangamite, improving on their existing 1.1% margin. Whereas One Nation came close to making the final two-party preference count in Hunter last year, this poll has them a distant third with 9.5%. The poll also presented respondents in Hunter with Liberal as the Coalition response option, whereas the seat was contested by the Nationals at the election. The poll was conducted from August 20-22 from samples of 1000 to 1200 per electorate. Pollster Kos Samaras notes on Twitter that their state-level polling is “not reporting the same trends”, and suggests the firm will publish polling over the coming days casting doubt over the aforementioned MediaReach findings from Victoria.

The West Australian published further results on Monday from last week’s Painted Dog Research poll, which credited Mark McGowan with a 91% approval rating, this time on Liberal leader Liza Harvey. Harvey was found to have an approval rating of just 10%, down nine since June, with disapproval unchanged at 37%. The balance included 36% neither satisifed nor dissatisfied and 10% for don’t know – I’m not sure where that leaves the 7% balance. The poll was conducted last week from a sample of 837.

• I took part in a podcast this week with Ben Raue at The Tally Room, together with former Australian Electoral Commission official Michael Maley, in which a highly wonk-ish discussion was had about electoral redistributions.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,679 comments on “Something for everybody”

  1. Albo calls on the government to do something positive for a change while useless McCormack writes a letter:

    Transport Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack has written to state and territory leaders requesting that the cap on international arrivals, which currently sits at about 4,000 people per week, be raised to 6,000 per week…

    Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese said the Government needed to examine federal quarantine measures, and repeated suggestions for the Government to use RAAF planes to bring home Australians.

    “There are a whole range of Commonwealth facilities in addition to hotel space that Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory have all said they’re prepared to do more with some support from the Commonwealth,” he said.

    But Mr McCormack rejected suggestions from Mr Albanese that the Government take a more proactive approach in opening quarantine facilities.

    “We feel as though the best way the states can manage the quarantine is with the hotel situation,” he said.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-16/governmentstates-increase-coronavirus-quarantine-overseas/12668156?section=politics

  2. Andrew Liveris, the former Dow Chemical chief who sits on the board of a Saudi oil and gas company and is advising the government on kickstarting manufacturing in this country (spoiler – it involves gas) is the national press club guest today.

    If you want to hear a lot of businessspeak.

  3. lizzie says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 12:41 pm
    Andrew Liveris, the former Dow Chemical chief who sits on the board of a Saudi oil and gas company and is advising the government on kickstarting manufacturing in this country (spoiler – it involves gas) is the national press club guest today.
    If you want to hear a lot of businessspeak.
    ____________________________
    Who would have thought a businessperson would speak in businesspeak?

    His type of business speak appears to be acceptable to the NT Labor Government they appointed him to their Economic Reconstruction Commission for the NT alongside Paul “Hendo” Henderson.

  4. lizzie says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 12:47 pm
    LVT

    It is very easy to roll the ‘business clichés’ off your tongue to impress. It’s a kind of gaslighting.
    ________________________________________________________
    Perhaps, but you don’t want to go down the road of challenging subject matter experts Fox News style?

  5. I thought the above was interesting, especially the seventh key.

    According the 538 averages, currently Biden is ahead in Pa by 5, Michigan by 7, Arizona by 5, Florida by 2.5. NC by 1.
    Biden doesnt need to win them all. He can afford to lose Pa, Fl and NC (if he wins NE2).

    And Biden is within a whisker in Texas and Ga.

    Your point is a good one tho – I dont get why the pollsters are not putting more effort (more polls and larger samples) into state polling.

  6. If you think Melbourne, right now, is anything other than a city behaving itself extremely well given the circumstances forced upon us, suffering through some serious shit, with more dignity and class than a lot of places would manage, you’ve been served an extremely skewed, inaccurate perspective. And the numbers do not back you up even slightly.

    Look at that fucking curve! It’s such a good curve it’s not even a curve. It’s the raddest waterslide imaginable.

    In this age of conspiracy fuelled insanity – stoked incessantly by the death throes of Murdoch, Facebook’s callous obliviousness, and, somehow, for some reason, Pete Evans’ weird $20,000 lava lamp – to be this deep into the most boring apocalypse imaginable, it is genuinely remarkable that 5 million of us are just getting on and doing it this well.

    And it’s also genuinely remarkable that the perception of what’s happening here is so counter to that reality – and it’s even more genuinely remarkable that that perception is based entirely on the self-interest of the same 300 or so odd dickheads.

    We keep hearing from the same few dozen rich people who think they should be richer. A handful of ex-footy players that want to play golf. The same gaggle of journalists in extremely pissy moods. Bec Judd’s horrifying run in with the gestapo and oppression from her $7 million mansion.

    https://theshot.net.au/general-news/melbourne-is-not-a-city-in-revolt-the-truth-is-far-more-incredible-and-far-more-boring/

  7. Little wonder Albanese has fallen in behind SfM’s fossil fuel obsession given the powerful AWU’s vested interest.

    The CFMEU, the AWU – all in on more fossil fuels !

    The fossil fuel cartel has ownership of the peoples parliament and it continues down the road of economic, environmental and social madness.

  8. I agree its pretty clear the world is rapidly transitioning from fossil fuels. Battery and solar are obviously becoming much more cost competitive.

    Rapidly moving to these technologies seems a logical move.

    Labor has weakly capitulated on any climate action now and the Liberals were never gonna.

    Pretty sad!

  9. Morrison, Murdoch, Hadley are really beyond contempt – causing extreme distress to this family:

    Children at centre of campaign to visit dying father in Queensland being used politically, says uncle

    The case has been used to condemn border closures, but mother says her children haven’t seen their father, Mark Keans, since 2016 and she wanted the visit to be ‘private and quiet’

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/16/children-campaign-visit-dying-father-mark-keans-queensland-used-politically-says-uncle-gofundme

  10. It will be interesting to see what Daniel Andrews has to say when he fronts the quarantine enquiry next week. It will also be interesting to see what documentation, emails, minutes etc he has submitted.

    Morrison has structured National Cabinet so that he can hide behind the fragile excuse of Cabinet in confidence for any and all documentation and discussion and as a buffer to FOI requests.

    Will Andrews follow that line or will he be more than willing to throw a light onto the decision making that has gone on within National cabinet and bring transparency to the whole process ?

    Perhaps Andrews will be more than happy to reveal who was responsible for what decisions and who demanded what processes be implemented.

    It is the national cabinet of Morrison not Andrews. That should be remembered. Perhaps some karma on the way.

    Next week will be very interesting.

  11. Paul Karp
    @Paul_Karp
    ·
    49s
    Liveris: “In none of the recommendations made yesterday … did I see the word ‘subsidy’. It is a redirection of funds. That’s a key part of the plan.”
    Yes – it’s an important part of the plan to never use the word SUBSIDY to describe the SUBSIDY ie using our money.

  12. Simon Katich @ #2397 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 12:24 pm

    I notice that, no matter how bad Trump gets – even with the recent fires – Hawkins stays in the race and his follows are still voting for him.

    The Green Party in the US is working with the Republicans. I put up the link to a podcast the other day which explains what they are doing. Go to the 30′ mark if you want to get to the point:

    https://podcast.thebulwark.com/sv-date-on-trump-florida-and-the-military

    I’m not making it up.

    I’ve seen The Greens conspire with Scott Morrison with my own eyes, and now this in the US. They are despicable.

  13. C@tmomma @ #2414 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 1:23 pm

    Simon Katich @ #2397 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 12:24 pm

    I notice that, no matter how bad Trump gets – even with the recent fires – Hawkins stays in the race and his follows are still voting for him.

    The Green Party in the US is working with the Republicans. I put up the link to a podcast the other day which explains what they are doing. Go to the 30′ mark if you want to get to the point:

    https://podcast.thebulwark.com/sv-date-on-trump-florida-and-the-military

    I’m not making it up.

    I’ve seen The Greens conspire with Scott Morrison with my own eyes, and now this in the US. They are despicable.

    So if it’s despicable for the Greens to conspire with SfM, it would also be despicable for Labor (gas/AWU) to conspire with SfM …?

  14. citizen @ #2412 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 1:18 pm

    Morrison, Murdoch, Hadley are really beyond contempt – causing extreme distress to this family:

    Children at centre of campaign to visit dying father in Queensland being used politically, says uncle

    The case has been used to condemn border closures, but mother says her children haven’t seen their father, Mark Keans, since 2016 and she wanted the visit to be ‘private and quiet’

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/16/children-campaign-visit-dying-father-mark-keans-queensland-used-politically-says-uncle-gofundme

    2GB and Morrison’s media team must be combing GoFundMe and other places for sob stories they can exploit for Deb the Freckle’s benefit.


  15. Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 1:02 pm

    Little wonder Albanese has fallen in behind SfM’s fossil fuel obsession given the powerful AWU’s vested interest.

    The CFMEU, the AWU – all in on more fossil fuels !

    The fossil fuel cartel has ownership of the peoples parliament and it continues down the road of economic, environmental and social madness.

    God your boring.
    Same old bullshit trying to destroy people and parties that have actually done stuff when it come to the environment. It is the mantra of the Greens.

  16. Citizen
    I was wondering about this issue. I read a story on Sunday night were the children’s mother was interviewed. She is very unhappy with how this has been handled and said her kids are now worried that not visiting the father will be seen by the public as them being heartless.
    The grandparents and Aunty started this to get media attention and money for the whole family to be able to quarantine. It’s the second time this week that Morrison has used the media to try and slam Queenslands premier.
    Surprised that the MSM haven’t followed this up after making such a song and dance originally, but then it would expose Morrison and his government for what they are, bullies.

  17. frednk @ #2418 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 1:31 pm


    Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 1:02 pm

    Little wonder Albanese has fallen in behind SfM’s fossil fuel obsession given the powerful AWU’s vested interest.

    The CFMEU, the AWU – all in on more fossil fuels !

    The fossil fuel cartel has ownership of the peoples parliament and it continues down the road of economic, environmental and social madness.

    God your boring.
    Same old bullshit trying to destroy people and parties that have actually done stuff when it come to the environment. It is the mantra of the Greens.

    You can’t even defend it. Just personal attacks at anyone who rocks the boat. Pathetic.

  18. laughtong @ #2416 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 1:25 pm

    C@t what do you think of this?
    Given pharmacies already do Flu vaccinations would it be a good idea

    https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/pharmacy-operators-pitch-expertise-for-covid-19-vaccine-plan-20200914-p55vhk.html

    laughtong,
    I have already received an alarmist email from the Pharmacy organisation that covers pharmacists and engineers (which I didn’t even know existed, so it must be a new crew) stating that they did not want, guess who, Anastacia Palacsjuk, to ‘force’ pharmacies to administer COVID-19 tests because they were ‘afraid’ for their staff getting the sickness. There was an attached petition to sign, of course.

    I just thought to myself it must have been the first time in history that the pharmacy business wanted to knock back an infringement on another profession’s patch and an opportunity to make more money. 😆

    Suffice to say I didn’t sign their petition. Other gullible customers, and I’m assuming they would have this petition in every pharmacy, may not be so aware of what was going on here, that is, yet another opportunity to say, Premier Anna, boo!

    I mean, it’s a part of the pharmacy employee job description, coming in contact with sick people every day and certainly in my neck of the woods the pharmacies have all their staff wearing masks, social distancing is enforced, plexiglass screens are put up and hand sanitiser is used.

    I actually think it would be a good idea for pharmacies to do it.

  19. I notice that, no matter how bad Trump gets – even with the recent fires – Hawkins stays in the race and his follows are still voting for him.

    I notice that in a democracy people get to vote for policies that they affirmatively support instead of engaging in a race-to-the-bottom, lesser-of-two-evils dynamic that only makes things worse.

    If the Democratic Party wants to receive votes from progressive voters, they are free to support progressive policies at any time. Until then they can – as Americans say – pound sand.

    Here is what you don’t understand about how power works: powerful people don’t improve their behaviour after you roll over for them. That only encourages them to continue their bad behaviour. The only way to get them to change is to force them to change. And in a democracy, that means withholding votes from them.

  20. Surprised that the MSM haven’t followed this up after making such a song and dance originally, but then it would expose Morrison and his government for what they are, bullies.

    Assantdj,
    I would call them, opportunistic political pond scum, but you’re much more polite than me. 🙂


  21. Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 1:34 pm

    ….

    You can’t even defend it. Just personal attacks at anyone who rocks the boat. Pathetic.

    Why bother, it a wedge organized with military precision. The goal has nothing to do with the environment, the Greens are more than will t sacrifice that for a Liberal/Green wedge.

    Morrison could not of prayed for a better execution of the wedge.

  22. I thought a vaccine was for people who didn’t have covid, to protect them from acquiring it.

    What’s the risk? Especially if there is in fact a vaccine for it.

    Cant the pharmacy staff take it first, anyway?

  23. frednk @ #2424 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 1:41 pm


    Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 1:34 pm

    ….

    You can’t even defend it. Just personal attacks at anyone who rocks the boat. Pathetic.

    Why bother, it a wedge organized with military precision. The goal has nothing to do with the environment, the Greens are more than will t sacrifice that for a Liberal/Green wedge.

    Morrison could not of prayed for a better execution of the wedge.

    It’s all very clear.

    Albanese has the support of the fossil fuel boosting unions CFMEU & AWU to lead the ALP. Albo did the deal with these economic and environmental terrorists, to be Labor leader.

    It’s indefensible. No Labor partisan can defend it.

  24. Fulvio Sammut @ #2426 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 1:42 pm

    I thought a vaccine was for people who din’t have covid to protect them from acquiring it.

    What’s the risk? Especially if there is in fact a vaccine for it.

    Cant the pharmacy staff take it first, anyway?

    Sorry, I thought the article was about testing for COVID-19 in pharmacies, which Annastacia P. has suggested. As far as a vaccine is concerned, they do it for the influenza vaccine, I can’t see how doing it for a C19 vaccine would be much different.

  25. A new slogan for Australian politics that is as applicable as the US.

    Idiots v Experts.

    You are on the side of experts if you are centre right like Malcolm Turnbull all the way to the left.

    If Labor cannot win there is something wrong with Labor.

    Politics today sloganised to its very very basic. Inspired by the latest Murdoch propaganda.

    Edit: I do think Labor states are showing the way.


  26. Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 1:47 pm

    …r.

    Albanese has the support of the fossil fuel boosting unions CFMEU & AWU to lead the ALP. Albo did the deal with these economic and environmental terrorists, to be Labor leader.

    It’s indefensible. No Labor partisan can defend it.

    From the Greens, a party that has destroyed pretty much all effective environmental action and all effective environmental groups over the last 20 years all we get is insults.

  27. Hi all. I want to share a thought on the current covid numbers.

    The 2nd covid wave has reached its 2nd act. (The 1st act was the big spike in cases and deaths that thankfully is now subsiding.) If we’re still consistently above 25 daily cases by this time next week the second act might go on for a bit. If not then we might hold the total number of cases below 27,500 and total number of deaths below 900, depending on how “social conditions” are relaxed.

    My reasoning…

    Basis
    * The cumulative (total number of) infections in the first wave can be described by two overlapping functions, a log-normal to describe the initial pulse and a negative-exponential to describe an extended tail. The first wave’s extended tail became apparent when the daily infections had subsided to about one tenth of the peak.
    * This is a “descriptive model” not a “causal model” with causes and calculated effects. A “descriptive model” uses the recent past to hint at the immediate future, assuming relatively constant conditions. (If any philosopher of science reading this has a better label for these two types, I’m all ears.)

    Observations
    * The second wave is currently following a similar pattern to the first wave, in as much as a log-normal function adequately describes the official numbers. So far there is no clear evidence of an extended tail. But, we have now reached approximately one tenth of the peak and there is a hint of a tail.
    * The death rate in this second wave is much higher than the first wave. The first wave had a death rate of 1 in 70. The second wave has a death rate of 1 in 25. (Seven weeks ago I commented here that it was 1 in 55. It rapidly got worse before stabilising at 1 in 25.)

    Assumptions
    * The second wave will continue to follow the same overall pattern as the first wave. Or to put it a different way, if there is an extended tail the negative exponential function will be able to describe that.
    * The death rate (1 in 25) will continue.

    Deductions
    * Now is when the second wave’s extended tail might start. The evidence for an extended tail will be if we’re still consistently above 25 daily cases by next week.
    * If there is no extended tail Australia will eventually suffer 27,250 cases and 880 deaths from covid19. If we do suffer an extended tail these figures will be higher.

    Speculation
    * Every infection every day risks creating several more. If there is to be a tail let’s hope it is short this time round, or we’re at increased risk of a third wave.
    * If the social conditions ‘relax’ too soon, the tail will lengthen and a third wave will emerge.
    * Deciding when to relax social conditions will be everyone’s political goal posts.
    * To reduce the politics in the covid models, it might help if politicians explicitly rely on descriptive models (last week hints at next week) and leave the causal models to the health experts.


  28. Lars Von Trier says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 1:51 pm

    If only Boerwar where here – 83 posts saying greens are bad would make all the difference!

    You must be exceedingly happy with Morrison’s efforts, the Greens can always be trusted to come out and play.


  29. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 2:16 pm

    FredNK

    How about you abandon the idiots and get on board with the science.

    Choose. Biden or Trump?

    You have no idea how much I want Biden to win. In my view it will put and end to the nonsense played by the Greens. The Liberal/Green environmental wedge will no longer have any value, perhaps they will have to move to something else to kill, hopefully it won’t be something I don’t care about.

  30. Here is what you don’t understand about how power works:

    BS. This is the most important election anywhere in… forever. Another 4 years of Trump and you can forget any meaningful global action on climate change, not to mention his other environmental destruction efforts that will eventuate. And the planet doesnt have 4 years.

    In a preferential voting system or one where the stakes are not as high, sure. Vote Green. But what you are failing to understand is that voting Green in swing states in this US election may well re-elect Trump and bring on climate and environment catastrophe that can not be undone. Way to make a point.

    Power is not “If you cant get your way then trash the joint”. That is called a tantrum and future generations will see that exactly for what it is. Pathetic self indulgence.

  31. Nicholas says Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 1:39 pm

    I notice that in a democracy people get to vote for policies that they affirmatively support instead of engaging in a race-to-the-bottom, lesser-of-two-evils dynamic that only makes things worse.

    If the Democratic Party wants to receive votes from progressive voters, they are free to support progressive policies at any time. Until then they can – as Americans say – pound sand.

    Here is what you don’t understand about how power works: powerful people don’t improve their behaviour after you roll over for them. That only encourages them to continue their bad behaviour. The only way to get them to change is to force them to change. And in a democracy, that means withholding votes from them.

    This election is crucial. If Biden does not win then Trump will. It’s a binary choice. We need to act on global warming now. If Trump wins there will be no action for the next four years, and potentially longer because who knows who will win after that.

    If Trump wins there will be at least one more conservative/reactionary appointed to the SCOTUS. A reactionary SCOTUS will block many measures a future progressive President might want to take, no matter how progressive the President and Congress are.

    Any US voter who does not vote for Biden is basically saying that they will accept four more years of inaction on climate change.
    Anyone who advocates against voting for Biden is also willing to accept four more years of inaction on climate change.
    Anyone advocating against voting for Biden is willing to accept the entrenching of a reactionary SCOTUS for a generation.
    Anyone advocating against voting for Biden is willing to accept the separation of children at the border.
    Anyone advocating against voting for Biden is willing to accept presidential support for the extreme right.
    Anyone advocating against voting for Biden is willing to accept the rise of nationalist politics and the demise of international institutions like the WHO.
    Anyone advocating against voting for Biden is willing to accept the abandonment of science and reason.
    Anyone advocating against voting for Biden is willing to accept a person like Trump as POTUS.

    Anyone who advocates against voting for Biden will be complicit in the re-election of Trump.

    Powerful people in the US right are not going to improve their behaviour if the Republicans keep getting re-elected.

    Voting matters.

  32. bc
    “Anyone who advocates against voting for Biden will be complicit in the re-election of Trump.”

    Okay, but… what if I’m a diehard Bernie supporter and I’m sad and bitter?

  33. SK

    Good summary of why if I was in the US I would be voting for and encouraging everyone I know to vote for Biden.

    It’s interesting that Dr Cornell West has abandoned the Greens for this election arguing the very same point. Referring to the Fascist in the White House.

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