Something for everybody

Great polling for Labor in Victoria, catastrophic polling for Labor in Victoria, and a mixed bag of federal seat polling — but seemingly a very clear picture in Western Australia.

Scattered accounts of opinion polling ahead of what looks like being a lean week for it, with both Newspoll and Essential Research entering an off-week in their respective cycles:

• Some seriously mixed signals coming out of Victoria, starting with Roy Morgan, who have published results of an SMS poll conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 2325 that records a 70-30 favourable split for Daniel Andrews’ performance as Premier. Respondents also split 63-37 against allowing restaurants, hotels and cafes to provide table service, 54-46 against ending the rule limiting travel to within 5 kilometres of a person’s home, 63-37 against an end to the 9pm curfew, although there is a 59-41 split in favour of allowing Melbourne residents to visit the homes of immediate family members, and a 76-24 split in favour of state government compensation for businesses forced to close.

• The contrast is provided by a Herald Sun report in Liberal internal polling by MediaReach of five marginal Victorian state seats, showing devastating swings against Labor. The Liberals are credited with leads of 70.6-29.4 in Bayswater (50.4-49.6 to Labor at the 2018 election), 68.0-32.0 in Hawthorn (50.4-49.6 to Labor), 54.5-45.5 in Monbulk (58.6-41.4), 54.9-45.1 in Mount Waverley (51.8-48.2) and 57.9-42.1 in South Barwon (54.6-45.4). Daniel Andrews is nonetheless said to have preferred premier leads over Michael O’Brien of 46-37 in South Barwon, 43-37 in Mount Waverley and 39-29 in Monbulk, with O’Brien leading 46-33 in Hawthorn and 37-33 in Bayswater. The polling was conducted on Tuesday from samples of between 523 and 694.

• Labor-linked firm Redbridge Group has published polling from three Labor-held federal seats, which collectively suggest Labor has gone backwards since last year’s election. Including results for a follow-up prompt for the initially undecided, and applying preference flows from the last election, I estimate the two-party results at 54-46 to the LNP in Lilley, where Labor’s margin is 0.6%; 54.7-45.3 to Liberal in Hunter, where the margin is 3.0%; but 53-47 to Labor in Corangamite, improving on their existing 1.1% margin. Whereas One Nation came close to making the final two-party preference count in Hunter last year, this poll has them a distant third with 9.5%. The poll also presented respondents in Hunter with Liberal as the Coalition response option, whereas the seat was contested by the Nationals at the election. The poll was conducted from August 20-22 from samples of 1000 to 1200 per electorate. Pollster Kos Samaras notes on Twitter that their state-level polling is “not reporting the same trends”, and suggests the firm will publish polling over the coming days casting doubt over the aforementioned MediaReach findings from Victoria.

The West Australian published further results on Monday from last week’s Painted Dog Research poll, which credited Mark McGowan with a 91% approval rating, this time on Liberal leader Liza Harvey. Harvey was found to have an approval rating of just 10%, down nine since June, with disapproval unchanged at 37%. The balance included 36% neither satisifed nor dissatisfied and 10% for don’t know – I’m not sure where that leaves the 7% balance. The poll was conducted last week from a sample of 837.

• I took part in a podcast this week with Ben Raue at The Tally Room, together with former Australian Electoral Commission official Michael Maley, in which a highly wonk-ish discussion was had about electoral redistributions.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,679 comments on “Something for everybody”

  1. In the 19th century the demand for cheap and disposable seasonal labour in agriculture gave rise to a whole lot of practices…the introduction of convict labour in WA; the use of indentured labour in many colonies and most prominently in WA; the trading of indentures at the port of Fremantle; the use of forced labour among Aboriginal communities in many places, but especially in WA, the Territory and QLD; and the abduction and forced labour of Islanders especially from The Solomons. In turn, the exploitation of workers prompted the formation of the AWU and calls for the implementation of a White Australia Policy. These developments in time encouraged the movement for Federation.

    Nothing much has changed. Agriculture is still short of seasonal labour. The plan is to compel vulnerable foreign workers to accept low pay and unacceptable conditions. I wonder what the AWU has to say. The idea of an Australian Nation is still in part premised on the regulation – nay, the repression – and manipulation of labour for the purposes of employers. The LNP will hop into it. They will be rewarded politically too.

  2. Regarding the liberal operative suing Victoria re the curfew.

    I got friends in Rosebud, who smell a rat.
    This business is not busy at the best of times, let alone winter nights in Rosebud.

    And thus tweet from someone kinda brings home the point

    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Phillip Lodge
    @phlogga
    Not a bad business! Looked like a pizza shop on TV. She claims $20k a week or more than $1million a year. That’s a lot of bloody pizzas in a joint like Rosebud. She’s not another one of those Lieberal bullshit artists, is she?

  3. Shanks’ message isn’t terribly sophisticated, and his production values are pretty amateurish.

    But his message is clear, and he’s brave. He speaks his mind bluntly and quite crudely. I’m not trying to patronize his efforts with plonking analysis from on high. I wouldn’t have either the guts or the energy to do what he does. I’m worried that one day he will go too far and get himself used into bankruptcy, or be forced to recant something that is likely to be true, but unprovable at the time of utterance.

    And he’s not “of the left” or anything wishy-washy and/or touchy-feely. He’s Labor. They should figure out a way to make the best use of him, without diluting or mainstreaming his message.

  4. In our political culture the outsider can always be minted as currency that will be exchangeable for electoral support. Humanism is dead in this country. Life Support was turned off by Howard and the equipment thrown out by Abbott.

  5. BB

    Your disdain of the “left” says everything..

    Otherwise I agree with every word you wrote about Mr Shanks.

    First lesson. When someone says they are from the left that does not make them weak wish washy or any other such demonisation.

    It’s certainly not a term you would have applied to many Labor Prime Ministers.

  6. Victoria
    Rosebud isn’t usually busy in winter which is why i like to visit it then instead of the middle of summer when its over crowded and regardless of the women’s politics her fears for her financial future are legitimate.

  7. Starship Troopers is hardly an up-to-date reference. It was in cinemas long before that 18 year old across the street was born!

    It’s culturally ikonic still. In general, Old farts won’t get the reference. Young punks will.

    (I am thankful, however, that Jordie is not into Rap. A small mercy that I include in my prayers every night before I go to bed.)

  8. Mexicanbeemer

    She isn’t the only one. It is a global pandemic and everyone is going to have to suffer with the very big downturn.
    She is doing this as a political operative
    Nothing less.

  9. BB

    BTW

    Production values is why I have been banging on about the unions and indeed Labor think about funding an Independent channel on YouTube plus some real resources behind investigative journalism.

  10. Bushfire Bill,
    He’s got 470K subscribers, he seems to have things in hand. I think production quality is on point. It fits with memes being quick and dirty.
    I think if his sort of energy and fire turned up in a politician on the opposition benches then things would turn for the better with labor. Even better if it was a woman. That would trigger the shit ouf of the libs.
    Go read reddit.com/r/australia
    Two threads, high up with people beside themselves over Albos’ equivocations to gas plants yesterday. And plenty of defeated partisans hopelessly commenting about media bias.

    I’m so glad he was so clear in his response yesterday.

  11. Color me surprised. Lol

    Richard Willingham
    @rwillingham
    .
    @michaelobrienmp
    holding a press conference with anti-curfew litigant Michelle Loielo. He says the Opposition backs the action.
    @abcmelbourne
    10:03 AM · Sep 16, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
    9
    Retweets

  12. First lesson. When someone says they are from the left that does not make them weak wish washy or any other such demonisation.

    Another “Says it all” pronouncement from Guytaur, PB’s Chief Moral Arbiter and Cultural Commissioner For OK Words, with a roving brief.

    If you actually read what I wrote, rather than leaping to judgement, you would see that I meant Shanks doesn’t dilute his message, rendering it, in my opinion, wishy-washy, by taking on a generally “leftish” slant. He is not speaking “from or of the Left”. He is quite explcitly Labor-orientated and proudly so.

    He doesn’t trash Greens, Socialist Workers, Trots, Antifa, or any other of the splinter groups “on the Left”. In fact he doesn’t mention them at all, in any significant way. They are not his tribe. He is not giving Greens a free licence to jump on Labor’s bus to get a share of parliamentary power while white-anting Labor at every opportunity. He keeps his political alignment concentrated and on-point.

    (This is all I’m going to say on the subject. Refusal to participate in a possible Guytaur pile-on does not signify agreement or a concession of defeat. )

  13. BB

    It’s your not Shanks demonisation of the left I pointed to.

    It was your casual flyby demonisation I called out.

    As I said I agreed with every word about the good work Shanks has been doing. Thanks for your essay on how you as Judge Jury and Executioner regard other posters

  14. BB,
    In friendlyjordies’ latest clip he makes a point of saying that he is well aware of the forces arraigned against him just waiting for him to slip up so they can whack a defamation suit on him, so he has legal advisers going through his stuff before he airs it. He seems to be covering his bases.

  15. Ten new cases in NSW. Six in HQ and the other four linked to known clusters.

    Even better, it seems the one “mystery” case from yesterday has been resolved (although I can’t confirm the source of that info).

    Think that leaves just one community transmission case in the last seven days.

  16. C@t

    “It’s easy to forget that Trump is actually the President of the USA. A role considered leader of the free world.“
    ————-
    I doubt many thoughtful people consider there is a “free world”, apart of course from the residents of PollYankee, much less that that fabled realm’s leader is appointed by US voters!

  17. I don’t find friendlyjordies that funny at all. It’s all one speed and one tone pretty much. I suppose he serves a purpose in brining political issues to the attention of young people

  18. RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    ·
    10m
    Here’s a little story about a big boy called Scotty.

    See Scotty hold the wombat?

    Look how Scotty gets all those shots for the camera.

    Scotty even has a wombat that’s named the word of the week? What’s that boys & girls?

    The govt’s word of the week is – Hope.

    Clever Scotty.

  19. It’s just more Liberal crap trying to undermine the effort being put in my the majority to bring an end to this. One dickhead can cost us billions, literally. The behavior of the Liberals is beyond unacceptable.

  20. To be fair, that was a pizza shop – not the restaurant in question (“Unica Cucina E Caffe”.)

    “Preston Pizza” to be precise – miles away from “Capel Sound” (the wanky new name for Rosebud West.)

  21. Kay Jay

    See what you think of this contribution from Chris Uhlmann.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/covid-19-has-hammered-home-some-uncomfortable-truths-about-us-as-a-people-20200915-p55vrb.html

    I expect that open slather when the genie was out of the bottle sounds good in the land of the Uhlmann.

    The cases in Victoria were approaching 700 per day and the rate was accelerating. So a quick glance at US figures —

    https://postimg.cc/jnJB7qhL

    Puts Mr. C. Uhlmann in serious risk of being a statistic with the cases approaching 10,000 per day – accelerating – hospitals and ICU overwhelmed – “my kingdom for a ventilator”.

    Of course now that the heavy lifting has been done and blame sheeted home – the expendables no longer a burden and great savings to the Gummint and the Public Purse.

    Verily, verily I say to you Mr. Uhlmann – you will never get through the Eye of the Needle.

    Thanks so much for this Kay Jay.

    The Uhlmann article is extremely nasty – than goodness none of us run this blog are over 50!

    But it is also plain wrong. Melbourne, with its climate and areas of high-density living – could easily have become like Lombardy without the lockdown.

    Did Uhlmann go to the same seminary (St Pat’s at M only) at them some time? Same teachers?

  22. The Yougov tracker for Trumps approval rating and head to head are interesting. Set the graph for 3 months for clarity and Trumps approval does seem to be dropping after some improvement. The voting intention head to heads are not as regularly polled. It was showing a narrowing but the last update was 10 days ago…. due for an update later today.

    Whilst these changes are of interest, the overall picture is pretty stable and you can see why Trump is pulling out the nasty to cling to power.

    Approval
    https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/donald-trump-approval-daily
    Voting INtention
    https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/presidential-voting-intention-2020

  23. Alpha Zero @ #2336 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 10:15 am

    Where is it written that we should only have two parties competing for government? Especially when both of them are equally crap on significant issues such as energy policy?

    P1 – They are not equally crap, just when you think the ALP is getting close to that mark, the LNP move the goalposts significantly…

    Ok, fair point. One is crap, the other is crappier! 🙂

  24. SK,
    At a rally yesterday Trump told the adoring few that he was going to get ‘vicious’.

    Honestly, does he really think that’s going to become his pathway to success?

  25. Dr. Dena Grayson @DrDenaGrayson

    The #RubyPrincess cruise ship was a #COVID19 hot zone and is the single most important vector for the #coronavirus in #Australia, accounting at one point for >10% of the country’s cases. Other infected passengers flew to the US, where some ultimately DIED.

    How were hundreds of infected Ruby Princess passengers allowed to disembark in Sydney and return to homes from Tasmania to Florida?

    The Carnival Cruise Ship That Spread Coronavirus Around the World

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-09-15/carnival-s-ruby-princess-cruise-ship-spread-coronavirus-around-the-world?sref=fjrBr5qu

  26. Douglas and Milko
    Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 11:21 am
    Comment #2375

    The Uhlmann article is extremely nasty – thank goodness none of us on this blog are over 50!

    And of course we are all extremely handsome/pretty and highly intelligent.😇

  27. P1

    Absolutely no objection to the Greens winning seats off Labor – I’m objecting to the Greens claim that this deprives the LNP of government, which is clearly a false claim.

    I’m assuming guytaur, who is all over the truth in political advertising stuff, will be ranting about this.

  28. Zoomster

    If the polls are showing Labor being a minority government in Queensland then the Greens claim is true. They are just weakening their negotiating position post election.

  29. Richard Willingham
    @rwillingham
    ·
    52m
    Anti-curfew litigant Michelle Loielo, who is seeking Lib preselection says “The ultimate goal is to be able to stop at BP on the way home and grab my milk and bread as I used to”
    @abcmelbourne
    J

    Nothing to do with her business? Just her habits?

  30. Whilst some are harping on about Qld, one can only wonder at the situation that Tony Fitzgerald himself describes as corrupt, when it seems both LNP and ALP have been selling access for companies, the rich and powerful throughout 2020, to members of parliament.

    Almost in exactly the opposite that they don’t provide access to MP’s for regular people.

    I won’t bother linking to the News Corp Crummymail that both the ALP and LNP have also been using to try and run hit pieces against the ‘very dangerous Greens’.

    Nevertheless this is what even this Murdoch rag has to say on cash for access fundraising by the ALP and LNP that has occurred throughout the year, despite covid.

    Amazing what some political parties consider to be necessary stuff through a pandemic, like selling your soul to the highest bidder.
    Then frustratingly still not have the election stitched up before hand, meaning you have to still actually talk to the public and argue your policy platform.

    Labor, LNP in Qld earn $550k in ‘business forum’ schemes</b<
    Labor and the LNP in Queensland have cashed in to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars by selling access to senior politicians under a fundraising scheme denounced as a pathway to corruption.

    "Queensland’s major political parties cashed in by selling access to their senior decision-makers this year under a dubious fundraising scheme that was denounced a decade ago by revered corruption fighter Tony Fitzgerald.

    Donor records reveal Labor and the LNP have pocketed $550,000 during 2020 through their secret “business forum” schemes where cashed-up ­participants get access to the government minister or opposition MP of their choice in ­exchange for a set fee.

    Pay-per-view has no place in politics

    Industry groups, lobbyists and lawyers dominate the list of 71 organisations that paid $5500 for a single ticket to ­access the forums along with big-name Australian businesses, including Santo, Telstra and TABCORP."

  31. At a rally yesterday Trump told the adoring few that he was going to get ‘vicious’.
    Honestly, does he really think that’s going to become his pathway to success?

    I wonder if his efforts to energise his base now equally energise the anti-Trump turnout. All he is doing is threatening the stability of the country. But it has always been that way for this turnip. He will destroy the place rather than leave it in defeat. Honour is an absolutely foreign concept to him. If he understands it at all, he sees it as a weakness.

  32. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 8:36 am
    Lars Von Trier @ #2270 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 8:28 am

    C@t I’m ok either way if thats honestly how you feel, I just hope your not feeling pressured to follow BB in all this.
    ___________________________
    Nope. All my own decision. You lost me when you tried to imply I was a hoarder and lived among clutter. Casting personal aspersions is never helpful when it comes to building a relationship of trust.
    __________________________
    C@t, I think to be precise it was BB who suggested that I implied that you where a hoarder.
    I think you yourself admitted you had a lot of stuff or clutter after 20 years which is fair enough.

    Anyway sorry for any offence taken.

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