Something for everybody

Great polling for Labor in Victoria, catastrophic polling for Labor in Victoria, and a mixed bag of federal seat polling — but seemingly a very clear picture in Western Australia.

Scattered accounts of opinion polling ahead of what looks like being a lean week for it, with both Newspoll and Essential Research entering an off-week in their respective cycles:

• Some seriously mixed signals coming out of Victoria, starting with Roy Morgan, who have published results of an SMS poll conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 2325 that records a 70-30 favourable split for Daniel Andrews’ performance as Premier. Respondents also split 63-37 against allowing restaurants, hotels and cafes to provide table service, 54-46 against ending the rule limiting travel to within 5 kilometres of a person’s home, 63-37 against an end to the 9pm curfew, although there is a 59-41 split in favour of allowing Melbourne residents to visit the homes of immediate family members, and a 76-24 split in favour of state government compensation for businesses forced to close.

• The contrast is provided by a Herald Sun report in Liberal internal polling by MediaReach of five marginal Victorian state seats, showing devastating swings against Labor. The Liberals are credited with leads of 70.6-29.4 in Bayswater (50.4-49.6 to Labor at the 2018 election), 68.0-32.0 in Hawthorn (50.4-49.6 to Labor), 54.5-45.5 in Monbulk (58.6-41.4), 54.9-45.1 in Mount Waverley (51.8-48.2) and 57.9-42.1 in South Barwon (54.6-45.4). Daniel Andrews is nonetheless said to have preferred premier leads over Michael O’Brien of 46-37 in South Barwon, 43-37 in Mount Waverley and 39-29 in Monbulk, with O’Brien leading 46-33 in Hawthorn and 37-33 in Bayswater. The polling was conducted on Tuesday from samples of between 523 and 694.

• Labor-linked firm Redbridge Group has published polling from three Labor-held federal seats, which collectively suggest Labor has gone backwards since last year’s election. Including results for a follow-up prompt for the initially undecided, and applying preference flows from the last election, I estimate the two-party results at 54-46 to the LNP in Lilley, where Labor’s margin is 0.6%; 54.7-45.3 to Liberal in Hunter, where the margin is 3.0%; but 53-47 to Labor in Corangamite, improving on their existing 1.1% margin. Whereas One Nation came close to making the final two-party preference count in Hunter last year, this poll has them a distant third with 9.5%. The poll also presented respondents in Hunter with Liberal as the Coalition response option, whereas the seat was contested by the Nationals at the election. The poll was conducted from August 20-22 from samples of 1000 to 1200 per electorate. Pollster Kos Samaras notes on Twitter that their state-level polling is “not reporting the same trends”, and suggests the firm will publish polling over the coming days casting doubt over the aforementioned MediaReach findings from Victoria.

The West Australian published further results on Monday from last week’s Painted Dog Research poll, which credited Mark McGowan with a 91% approval rating, this time on Liberal leader Liza Harvey. Harvey was found to have an approval rating of just 10%, down nine since June, with disapproval unchanged at 37%. The balance included 36% neither satisifed nor dissatisfied and 10% for don’t know – I’m not sure where that leaves the 7% balance. The poll was conducted last week from a sample of 837.

• I took part in a podcast this week with Ben Raue at The Tally Room, together with former Australian Electoral Commission official Michael Maley, in which a highly wonk-ish discussion was had about electoral redistributions.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,679 comments on “Something for everybody”

  1. C@t

    There’s no Coles delivery and I never shop with them anyway.

    Interested to see the general reaction to Morrison’s Gas Inspiration is Blech! on all sides.

  2. Jackol @ #2288 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 9:04 am

    It would seem to me that the whole idea of effectively creating separate classes of workers for fruit picking etc can only lead to exploitation opportunities that will be abused by the unscrupulous who are always around.

    It seems structural to me.

    Making visas contingent on immigrants/travellers submitting to the whims of any employer is a recipe for abuse because it’s inherently stacking up more power on the employer’s side – do *this* or I will report you to the authorities/won’t tick the boxes you need to stay in the country/subject you to the mercy of the immigration dept/minister. Don’t cause trouble or … etc etc.

    If pay and conditions aren’t good enough to attract people to do the jobs, then those jobs need better pay and conditions; relying on bringing in overseas workers of whatever stripe is clearly just a way of suppressing wages and ensuring a ‘compliant’ workforce. Again, it seems structural to me. No amount of window dressing can fix that.

    Of course because this has been going on for decades the agriculture sector has these practices baked in to their cost structures, so there is restructuring pain associated with real reform, and undoubtedly some higher prices for these products for Australian consumers. But again if lower prices for strawberries or whatever is built on suppression of wages and abusing workers then that should be simply unacceptable.

    Jackol,
    We are not talking about a continuation of the present system but with different bunnies being roped in. It seems to me, from reading the article:
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mps-back-proposal-to-give-refugees-residency-for-fruit-picking-20200914-p55ved.html
    That because it applies only to people assessed to be genuine refugees already living in the country, but may be used in the future as a pathway for possibly new genuine refugees, that it won’t be possible for unscrupulous farmer employers or labour hire contractors to exploit them and hold their passports like a Sword of Damocles above their heads.

    As you can see from this quote:

    There are about 17,000 refugees who came by boat to Australia years ago on two visa classes, Temporary Protection Visas, which last three years and do not have a direct path to permanent residency rights, and Safe Haven Enterprise Visas.

    Neither the SHEV nor TPV let people stay in Australia permanently. The SHEV allows recipients to apply for other classes of visas that can lead to residency after they have worked in a regional area for three and a half years, but that incentive appears ineffective.

    Home Affairs data obtained by the Refugee Council of Australia under a freedom of information request found only about a third of SHEV holders were in regional areas earlier this year, which it argues is because the lure of residency is too distant to be a good incentive.

    a new system is being developed to replace one that wasn’t working previously and it applies only to a specific group of people, refugees.

    I would also add thet The Refugee Council of Australia is working with the parliamentary group, so the outcomes which would be best for the refugees are as important as outcomes which would benefit the farmers.

  3. “Scientists are usually assiduously apolitical in public, because you do not want science to become a political football.”

    Isn’t it time for this old notion to be put to bed? Science underpins modern life – our health, wealth, education and jobs all depend on it. And, increasingly, so does our social life. Most of us would literally be dead without it. Of course science is now political!

    We are where we are in large part because too many scientists are afraid to speak truth to power.

  4. Jaeger @ #2294 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 7:17 am

    Anti-maskers in Indonesia have been forced to dig graves for coronavirus victims as punishment
    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/anti-maskers-in-indonesia-have-been-forced-to-dig-graves-for-coronavirus-victims-as-punishment

    Things are getting bad in Jakarta and on Java in general.

    Word is that the Government is about to lockdown Jakarta.

    Fun fact: the island of Java is home to more than half of Indonesia’s population. (>141 million people)

    Here in Makassar things seem to have stabilised and the numbers are starting to trend down a bit. The last official numbers I saw was just under 2,000 active confirmed cases from almost 7,500 confirmed cases in total.

  5. lizzie @ #2298 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 9:33 am

    Vic & KayJay

    Well, that was amusing. The gentleman who answered the help line had a thick accent and a sniff (should I have suggested he got a covid test?) but it turned out I hadn’t ticked a box called “save details” and he’s put the order through for me. (My landline is still dead)

    Onya matey.

    That’s why we pick Woolies ❗

    In sympathy I guess. My internet dropped out but after resetting the Telstra box and and my Netgear repeater all is well – or as well as it gets. ☕☕

  6. lizzie @ #2309 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 9:38 am

    C@t

    There’s no Coles delivery and I never shop with them anyway.

    Interested to see the general reaction to Morrison’s Gas Inspiration is Blech! on all sides.

    Okay, so can I suggest a phone call to your local Woolworths to get their help in sorting the matter out?

    Btw, was that my old phone that died? If so, my apologies, not that I knew it would but I still feel responsible in some way. 🙂

  7. In unsurprising news, Trump has apparently tweeted that Biden is a pedo.

    Seriously all this guy does is projection and of course it helps with the Qanon shit show that he is supporting because he is the saviour of the children.
    The same man whose administration has put kids on the border in cages and separated from their parents. And now being reported that the young women have been given hysterectomies. Not sure about this part of story being accurate, but sheesh, This administration need to go and go now.

  8. Vic,
    I don’t think Joe Biden has walked into a room full of semi-naked Miss Teen America contestants and inspected the quality of the offering, or whatever excuse Trump came up with to explain it.

  9. C@t

    No, it was my fault for not ticking a box, as KayJay suggested. I had removed the liquor from the order in case that was holding it up, and charming chap put it back for me. His constant sniff worried me, however.

    Not your phone. I think the fault must be in the local Telstra box as my bigpond internet is still OK.

  10. Victoria’s 14-day case average has dropped below 50 after the state recorded a second day of 42 new cases on Wednesday(and 8 deaths). The state’s regional areas will be able to enjoy eased restrictions from tomorrow, but Premier Daniel Andrews has warned Melburnians an escape to the country is ‘not on’.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-victorian-cho-brett-sutton-to-front-state-s-hotel-quarantine-inquiry-nsw-mystery-case-emerges-as-australian-death-toll-stands-at-816-20200915-p55vw3.html

  11. Member of the liberal party is suing the Victorian government as her earnings from her cafe have dropped from $20000per week to $200 due to the curfew.
    But she can still afford to take legal action.
    There is also a class action because of loss. The lawyers expect to do well.

  12. C@t

    It’s easy to forget that Trump is actually the President of the USA. A role considered leader of the free world.
    His behaviour and actions every day would be too silly even for a Sacha Baron Cohen comedy.
    The west coast is burning. The pan handle has hurricanes bearing down. The pandemic is still not under any control, and law and order in terms of race relations is at an all time low.

    It is a frickin shit show.

  13. Lizzie

    I hear she is being supported by the state liberals in her action.
    She is seeking pre selection for the seat of Nepean,
    They are a bunch of shysters.

    And in other news, the young gentleman who could be mistaken for Kennetts long lost child, is behind boot Dan campaign. He has made an appearance on Peta Credlin show. Also his father was apparently the CEO of the CFA here in Victoria.

  14. Andrew Liveris (Covid Commission) on RN with Fran Kelly stated that the commission was only tasked to look at gas.

    Of course we could never have guessed!!!

  15. Victoria @ #2325 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 9:55 am

    Not nice to say, but his appearance is really creepy.

    MJ
    @MJ_25_
    ·
    17h
    SkyNews is giving Edward Bourke a platform to spread his bitter hate campaign “givedantheboot”.
    Edward is also the son of Mick Bourke, the former CEO of the CFA, who resigned before he could face the Fiskville Parliamentary Enquiry, & his involvement in exposing Firefighters.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/MJ_25_/status/1305752917777944576/photo/1

    The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.

  16. Another encouraging poll for the left out of QLD…

    Labor worries over saving Grace

    The Greens are in a strong position to unseat Labor stalwart and Industrial Relations Minister Grace Grace in the inner-­Brisbane electorate of McConnel at next month’s Queensland election, ­according to polling commissioned by the minor party.

    A telephone and SMS poll of 600 voters, conducted by Sydney-based Lonergan, shows that on first-preference votes, Greens candidate Kirsten Lovejoy (30 per cent primary) has leapfrogged Labor’s Ms Grace (29 per cent primary) into second place behind the LNP’s Pinky Singh (31 per cent primary).

    Though 8 per cent of voters say they are undecided, and the poll carries a margin of error of four percentage points, Greens strategists say if the result were replicated at the election on Oct­ober 31, Ms Lovejoy would be elected on Labor preferences. “This is the best position we’ve ever been in, in this seat,” a senior Greens source said.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/labor-worries-over-saving-grace/news-story/e83742732f865d5a8d12227772c45f4b

  17. Victoria @ #2322 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 9:49 am

    C@t

    It’s easy to forget that Trump is actually the President of the USA. A role considered leader of the free world.
    His behaviour and actions every day would be too silly even for a Sacha Baron Cohen comedy.
    The west coast is burning. The pan handle has hurricanes bearing down. The pandemic is still not under any control, and law and order in terms of race relations is at an all time low.

    It is a frickin shit show.

    And the only way he thinks ‘Only I can fix it’, is by sending in the jackbooted faceless goons with their tear gas, or by ignoring the plight of the Democratic states like California and Oregon.

  18. If all the Greens are doing is replacing a Labor member with a Green member, that’s scarcely ‘keeping the LNP out’. If anything, it’s denying Labor of a majority and giving the LNP a path to government.

  19. Would you trust this government?

    There are a raft of laws covering departments, agencies and other government bodies that mean they can’t share the data they collect about you.

    It’s designed to protect your privacy, but the Federal Government thinks it’s outdated and has drafted legislation to allow more data-sharing.

    What will change?
    The Data Availability and Transparency Bill would override the different laws and provisions covering data collected by government bodies.

    Instead, the National Data Commissioner would oversee a regime to allows data-sharing across the public sector, provided various protections are kept in place.

    That would include the likes of Centrelink, the Australian Tax Office, the Department of Home Affairs Department and the Bureau of Statistics, as well as bodies such as the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare.

    But it could also see public sector information shared with other “accredited” bodies, including universities, think-tanks, businesses and not-for-profit groups.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-16/government-draft-law-share-personal-data-between-agencies/12666792

  20. Under guytories truth in advertising proposal for political parties, how much should Kirsten Lovejoy be fined for lying that taking a seat from Labor will keep the LNP out ?

  21. Laborites too shallow to check that the current Qld Greens seat was won from LNP

    Both major parties are moribund and gutless simps to the fossil fuel industry and Greens should be running candidates in every seat. If the majors are getting worried and screaming ‘teh Greens’ are dangerous, then all the better. Any party that thinks they own an election before it is run and done is probably not listening to or acting on behalf of their people.

    Meanwhile months ago it was clear where the results are for jobs per $m of tax payers money forked out

  22. Where is it written that we should only have two parties competing for government? Especially when both of them are equally crap on significant issues such as energy policy?

    P1 – They are not equally crap, just when you think the ALP is getting close to that mark, the LNP move the goalposts significantly…

  23. sprocket_,
    SVDate on The Bulwark podcast yesterday relayed the story about how he just sat outside of a polling place in 2016 and listened to voters in a swing state as they came out after voting, they were speaking to each other loud enough for him to hear them, and he heard them say that they voted for Trump because, ‘insert racist comment about immigrants here’. Afterwards, he caught up with them and he identified himself as a journalist and asked them if they would mind telling him who they voted for and why? The ones that admitted voting for Trump said they did so because he was a businessman who would shake Washington up, yada, yada. The same ones he had just overheard saying what the real reason they voted for him was. 🙂

  24. While not actually claiming that he brought on the #Koalakiller debacle in the NSW government, Jordan Shanks is claiming that others are claiming it.

    From what I’ve see of the extent of his coverage with my grandson and all his friends, the 18 year-old across the street and her friends, and the 440,000 other subscribers to his channel, I think he might have a point.

    The takeaway from this morning’s episode:

    “We don’t need the press. We’re powerful enough to drag Berejiklian out of her hive and, like at the end of Starship Troopers, determine… ‘It’s afraid. It’s afraid!'”

    https://youtu.be/3sW4G9-TPF8

    If you don’t get the Starship Troopers reference, you prove Jordie’s point about stale and arcane media and social memes. Because plenty of other people do get it.

  25. Firefox says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 10:00 am
    Another encouraging poll for the left out of QLD…

    That is to say….it’s encouragement for the Right.

  26. If voters form the view that Labor will not be able to govern other than as a minority that depends on Green support, they will vote for the LNP.

    True story. Everything The Greens Touch Dies.

  27. And the funny thing was when I was watching it with youngest daughter, i wondered whose residence friendlyjordies was filming, and whether it was alluding to something more about Barilaro.
    But I didnt actual expect him to be in one of his actual abodes. That was too good.

  28. Lizzie
    The site looks good but in typical Australian retail fashion poorly designed.

    You need to complete the application process before placing orders but they don’t tell you that but once that is complete you can order and the minimum order is $50.

    The customer service person i spoke too was useless because her advice turned out to be wrong.

  29. Mexicanbeemer

    This will be a test to see how it works out. I had registered some time ago, and did everything in the right order except for one little box. It would have been helpful if that box had told me I must tick it to confirm the order.

    I found the page very time consuming in the sense that you have to know the brand you’re looking for to find it more quickly.

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