Scattered accounts of opinion polling ahead of what looks like being a lean week for it, with both Newspoll and Essential Research entering an off-week in their respective cycles:
• Some seriously mixed signals coming out of Victoria, starting with Roy Morgan, who have published results of an SMS poll conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 2325 that records a 70-30 favourable split for Daniel Andrews’ performance as Premier. Respondents also split 63-37 against allowing restaurants, hotels and cafes to provide table service, 54-46 against ending the rule limiting travel to within 5 kilometres of a person’s home, 63-37 against an end to the 9pm curfew, although there is a 59-41 split in favour of allowing Melbourne residents to visit the homes of immediate family members, and a 76-24 split in favour of state government compensation for businesses forced to close.
• The contrast is provided by a Herald Sun report in Liberal internal polling by MediaReach of five marginal Victorian state seats, showing devastating swings against Labor. The Liberals are credited with leads of 70.6-29.4 in Bayswater (50.4-49.6 to Labor at the 2018 election), 68.0-32.0 in Hawthorn (50.4-49.6 to Labor), 54.5-45.5 in Monbulk (58.6-41.4), 54.9-45.1 in Mount Waverley (51.8-48.2) and 57.9-42.1 in South Barwon (54.6-45.4). Daniel Andrews is nonetheless said to have preferred premier leads over Michael O’Brien of 46-37 in South Barwon, 43-37 in Mount Waverley and 39-29 in Monbulk, with O’Brien leading 46-33 in Hawthorn and 37-33 in Bayswater. The polling was conducted on Tuesday from samples of between 523 and 694.
• Labor-linked firm Redbridge Group has published polling from three Labor-held federal seats, which collectively suggest Labor has gone backwards since last year’s election. Including results for a follow-up prompt for the initially undecided, and applying preference flows from the last election, I estimate the two-party results at 54-46 to the LNP in Lilley, where Labor’s margin is 0.6%; 54.7-45.3 to Liberal in Hunter, where the margin is 3.0%; but 53-47 to Labor in Corangamite, improving on their existing 1.1% margin. Whereas One Nation came close to making the final two-party preference count in Hunter last year, this poll has them a distant third with 9.5%. The poll also presented respondents in Hunter with Liberal as the Coalition response option, whereas the seat was contested by the Nationals at the election. The poll was conducted from August 20-22 from samples of 1000 to 1200 per electorate. Pollster Kos Samaras notes on Twitter that their state-level polling is “not reporting the same trends”, and suggests the firm will publish polling over the coming days casting doubt over the aforementioned MediaReach findings from Victoria.
• The West Australian published further results on Monday from last week’s Painted Dog Research poll, which credited Mark McGowan with a 91% approval rating, this time on Liberal leader Liza Harvey. Harvey was found to have an approval rating of just 10%, down nine since June, with disapproval unchanged at 37%. The balance included 36% neither satisifed nor dissatisfied and 10% for don’t know – I’m not sure where that leaves the 7% balance. The poll was conducted last week from a sample of 837.
• I took part in a podcast this week with Ben Raue at The Tally Room, together with former Australian Electoral Commission official Michael Maley, in which a highly wonk-ish discussion was had about electoral redistributions.
Lizzie
One problem solved.
I guess a call to Telstra is in order next…..
LOL! That’s certainly one way of describing them.
C@t
There’s no Coles delivery and I never shop with them anyway.
Interested to see the general reaction to Morrison’s Gas Inspiration is Blech! on all sides.
Jackol @ #2288 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 9:04 am
Jackol,
We are not talking about a continuation of the present system but with different bunnies being roped in. It seems to me, from reading the article:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mps-back-proposal-to-give-refugees-residency-for-fruit-picking-20200914-p55ved.html
That because it applies only to people assessed to be genuine refugees already living in the country, but may be used in the future as a pathway for possibly new genuine refugees, that it won’t be possible for unscrupulous farmer employers or labour hire contractors to exploit them and hold their passports like a Sword of Damocles above their heads.
As you can see from this quote:
a new system is being developed to replace one that wasn’t working previously and it applies only to a specific group of people, refugees.
I would also add thet The Refugee Council of Australia is working with the parliamentary group, so the outcomes which would be best for the refugees are as important as outcomes which would benefit the farmers.
“Scientists are usually assiduously apolitical in public, because you do not want science to become a political football.”
Isn’t it time for this old notion to be put to bed? Science underpins modern life – our health, wealth, education and jobs all depend on it. And, increasingly, so does our social life. Most of us would literally be dead without it. Of course science is now political!
We are where we are in large part because too many scientists are afraid to speak truth to power.
Jaeger @ #2294 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 7:17 am
Things are getting bad in Jakarta and on Java in general.
Word is that the Government is about to lockdown Jakarta.
Fun fact: the island of Java is home to more than half of Indonesia’s population. (>141 million people)
Here in Makassar things seem to have stabilised and the numbers are starting to trend down a bit. The last official numbers I saw was just under 2,000 active confirmed cases from almost 7,500 confirmed cases in total.
lizzie @ #2298 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 9:33 am
Onya matey.
That’s why we pick Woolies ❗
In sympathy I guess. My internet dropped out but after resetting the Telstra box and and my Netgear repeater all is well – or as well as it gets. ☕☕
lizzie @ #2309 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 9:38 am
Okay, so can I suggest a phone call to your local Woolworths to get their help in sorting the matter out?
Btw, was that my old phone that died? If so, my apologies, not that I knew it would but I still feel responsible in some way. 🙂
In unsurprising news, Trump has apparently tweeted that Biden is a pedo.
Seriously all this guy does is projection and of course it helps with the Qanon shit show that he is supporting because he is the saviour of the children.
The same man whose administration has put kids on the border in cages and separated from their parents. And now being reported that the young women have been given hysterectomies. Not sure about this part of story being accurate, but sheesh, This administration need to go and go now.
Should always take individual seat polling with a grain or two of salt but this is certainly an encouraging one for those of us on the left…
QLD election 2020: Greens on track to unseat Jackie Trad in South Brisbane
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/qld-election-2020-greens-on-track-to-unseat-jackie-trad-in-south-brisbane/news-story/c854a4a57fd1d07dd2653d120388b38d
Ooops, lizzie, just saw that you have things sorted. And it was your landline. 🙂
Vic,
I don’t think Joe Biden has walked into a room full of semi-naked Miss Teen America contestants and inspected the quality of the offering, or whatever excuse Trump came up with to explain it.
C@t
No, it was my fault for not ticking a box, as KayJay suggested. I had removed the liquor from the order in case that was holding it up, and charming chap put it back for me. His constant sniff worried me, however.
Not your phone. I think the fault must be in the local Telstra box as my bigpond internet is still OK.
Victoria’s 14-day case average has dropped below 50 after the state recorded a second day of 42 new cases on Wednesday(and 8 deaths). The state’s regional areas will be able to enjoy eased restrictions from tomorrow, but Premier Daniel Andrews has warned Melburnians an escape to the country is ‘not on’.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-victorian-cho-brett-sutton-to-front-state-s-hotel-quarantine-inquiry-nsw-mystery-case-emerges-as-australian-death-toll-stands-at-816-20200915-p55vw3.html
C@t
It’s easy to forget that Trump is actually the President of the USA. A role considered leader of the free world.
His behaviour and actions every day would be too silly even for a Sacha Baron Cohen comedy.
The west coast is burning. The pan handle has hurricanes bearing down. The pandemic is still not under any control, and law and order in terms of race relations is at an all time low.
It is a frickin shit show.
Lizzie
I hear she is being supported by the state liberals in her action.
She is seeking pre selection for the seat of Nepean,
They are a bunch of shysters.
And in other news, the young gentleman who could be mistaken for Kennetts long lost child, is behind boot Dan campaign. He has made an appearance on Peta Credlin show. Also his father was apparently the CEO of the CFA here in Victoria.
Not nice to say, but his appearance is really creepy.
MJ
@MJ_25_
·
17h
SkyNews is giving Edward Bourke a platform to spread his bitter hate campaign “givedantheboot”.
Edward is also the son of Mick Bourke, the former CEO of the CFA, who resigned before he could face the Fiskville Parliamentary Enquiry, & his involvement in exposing Firefighters.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MJ_25_/status/1305752917777944576/photo/1
Victoria
Obviously something nasty in the genes.
Lizzie
Its not nice. But he creeps me out.
Andrew Liveris (Covid Commission) on RN with Fran Kelly stated that the commission was only tasked to look at gas.
Of course we could never have guessed!!!
Victoria @ #2325 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 9:55 am
The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.
Another encouraging poll for the left out of QLD…
Labor worries over saving Grace
The Greens are in a strong position to unseat Labor stalwart and Industrial Relations Minister Grace Grace in the inner-Brisbane electorate of McConnel at next month’s Queensland election, according to polling commissioned by the minor party.
A telephone and SMS poll of 600 voters, conducted by Sydney-based Lonergan, shows that on first-preference votes, Greens candidate Kirsten Lovejoy (30 per cent primary) has leapfrogged Labor’s Ms Grace (29 per cent primary) into second place behind the LNP’s Pinky Singh (31 per cent primary).
Though 8 per cent of voters say they are undecided, and the poll carries a margin of error of four percentage points, Greens strategists say if the result were replicated at the election on October 31, Ms Lovejoy would be elected on Labor preferences. “This is the best position we’ve ever been in, in this seat,” a senior Greens source said.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/labor-worries-over-saving-grace/news-story/e83742732f865d5a8d12227772c45f4b
I read in the Guardian a view that the forthcoming presidential election is a referendum on American character.
Victoria @ #2322 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 9:49 am
And the only way he thinks ‘Only I can fix it’, is by sending in the jackbooted faceless goons with their tear gas, or by ignoring the plight of the Democratic states like California and Oregon.
green logic.
taking a seat off labor keeps the lnp out.
pretty funny from a party that claims to attract higher educated voters.
If all the Greens are doing is replacing a Labor member with a Green member, that’s scarcely ‘keeping the LNP out’. If anything, it’s denying Labor of a majority and giving the LNP a path to government.
The Lincoln Project have noted thaat Trump appears to be gaining with Latino voters:
https://youtu.be/XtfCtrdtVzU
🙂
Would you trust this government?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-16/government-draft-law-share-personal-data-between-agencies/12666792
V P and zoom
Selfish action which will indeed block Labor.
Under guytories truth in advertising proposal for political parties, how much should Kirsten Lovejoy be fined for lying that taking a seat from Labor will keep the LNP out ?
zoomster @ #2334 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 10:04 am
That’s Greens pretzel logic for you.
Laborites too shallow to check that the current Qld Greens seat was won from LNP
Both major parties are moribund and gutless simps to the fossil fuel industry and Greens should be running candidates in every seat. If the majors are getting worried and screaming ‘teh Greens’ are dangerous, then all the better. Any party that thinks they own an election before it is run and done is probably not listening to or acting on behalf of their people.
Meanwhile months ago it was clear where the results are for jobs per $m of tax payers money forked out
lizzie @ #2330 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 10:07 am
Some people really don’t seem to understand this whole ‘democracy’ thing 🙁
Where is it written that we should only have two parties competing for government? Especially when both of them are equally crap on significant issues such as energy policy?
Either everyone is lying to the pollsters, or Dotard is on the nose big time in the battleground states…
Where is it written that we should only have two parties competing for government? Especially when both of them are equally crap on significant issues such as energy policy?
P1 – They are not equally crap, just when you think the ALP is getting close to that mark, the LNP move the goalposts significantly…
sprocket_,
SVDate on The Bulwark podcast yesterday relayed the story about how he just sat outside of a polling place in 2016 and listened to voters in a swing state as they came out after voting, they were speaking to each other loud enough for him to hear them, and he heard them say that they voted for Trump because, ‘insert racist comment about immigrants here’. Afterwards, he caught up with them and he identified himself as a journalist and asked them if they would mind telling him who they voted for and why? The ones that admitted voting for Trump said they did so because he was a businessman who would shake Washington up, yada, yada. The same ones he had just overheard saying what the real reason they voted for him was. 🙂
While not actually claiming that he brought on the #Koalakiller debacle in the NSW government, Jordan Shanks is claiming that others are claiming it.
From what I’ve see of the extent of his coverage with my grandson and all his friends, the 18 year-old across the street and her friends, and the 440,000 other subscribers to his channel, I think he might have a point.
The takeaway from this morning’s episode:
https://youtu.be/3sW4G9-TPF8
If you don’t get the Starship Troopers reference, you prove Jordie’s point about stale and arcane media and social memes. Because plenty of other people do get it.
Firefox says:
Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 10:00 am
Another encouraging poll for the left out of QLD…
That is to say….it’s encouragement for the Right.
BB
His latest takedown of John Barilaro was inspired.
If voters form the view that Labor will not be able to govern other than as a minority that depends on Green support, they will vote for the LNP.
True story. Everything The Greens Touch Dies.
And the funny thing was when I was watching it with youngest daughter, i wondered whose residence friendlyjordies was filming, and whether it was alluding to something more about Barilaro.
But I didnt actual expect him to be in one of his actual abodes. That was too good.
Jordan Shanks is the Paul Keating people like mundo and south have been baying for.
Lizzie
The site looks good but in typical Australian retail fashion poorly designed.
You need to complete the application process before placing orders but they don’t tell you that but once that is complete you can order and the minimum order is $50.
The customer service person i spoke too was useless because her advice turned out to be wrong.
sprocket_ @ #2331 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 10:13 am
Considering the number of trolls among Trump’s supporters, that is a distinct possibility. Could check 4chan/reddit/etc. to confirm, if you really want.
good luck with your day Firefox & Player One & Quoll. -a.v.
Starship Troopers is hardly an up-to-date reference. It was in cinemas long before that 18 year old across the street was born!
Just leaving this here. …
https://youtu.be/3sW4G9-TPF8
Mexicanbeemer
This will be a test to see how it works out. I had registered some time ago, and did everything in the right order except for one little box. It would have been helpful if that box had told me I must tick it to confirm the order.
I found the page very time consuming in the sense that you have to know the brand you’re looking for to find it more quickly.