Something for everybody

Great polling for Labor in Victoria, catastrophic polling for Labor in Victoria, and a mixed bag of federal seat polling — but seemingly a very clear picture in Western Australia.

Scattered accounts of opinion polling ahead of what looks like being a lean week for it, with both Newspoll and Essential Research entering an off-week in their respective cycles:

• Some seriously mixed signals coming out of Victoria, starting with Roy Morgan, who have published results of an SMS poll conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 2325 that records a 70-30 favourable split for Daniel Andrews’ performance as Premier. Respondents also split 63-37 against allowing restaurants, hotels and cafes to provide table service, 54-46 against ending the rule limiting travel to within 5 kilometres of a person’s home, 63-37 against an end to the 9pm curfew, although there is a 59-41 split in favour of allowing Melbourne residents to visit the homes of immediate family members, and a 76-24 split in favour of state government compensation for businesses forced to close.

• The contrast is provided by a Herald Sun report in Liberal internal polling by MediaReach of five marginal Victorian state seats, showing devastating swings against Labor. The Liberals are credited with leads of 70.6-29.4 in Bayswater (50.4-49.6 to Labor at the 2018 election), 68.0-32.0 in Hawthorn (50.4-49.6 to Labor), 54.5-45.5 in Monbulk (58.6-41.4), 54.9-45.1 in Mount Waverley (51.8-48.2) and 57.9-42.1 in South Barwon (54.6-45.4). Daniel Andrews is nonetheless said to have preferred premier leads over Michael O’Brien of 46-37 in South Barwon, 43-37 in Mount Waverley and 39-29 in Monbulk, with O’Brien leading 46-33 in Hawthorn and 37-33 in Bayswater. The polling was conducted on Tuesday from samples of between 523 and 694.

• Labor-linked firm Redbridge Group has published polling from three Labor-held federal seats, which collectively suggest Labor has gone backwards since last year’s election. Including results for a follow-up prompt for the initially undecided, and applying preference flows from the last election, I estimate the two-party results at 54-46 to the LNP in Lilley, where Labor’s margin is 0.6%; 54.7-45.3 to Liberal in Hunter, where the margin is 3.0%; but 53-47 to Labor in Corangamite, improving on their existing 1.1% margin. Whereas One Nation came close to making the final two-party preference count in Hunter last year, this poll has them a distant third with 9.5%. The poll also presented respondents in Hunter with Liberal as the Coalition response option, whereas the seat was contested by the Nationals at the election. The poll was conducted from August 20-22 from samples of 1000 to 1200 per electorate. Pollster Kos Samaras notes on Twitter that their state-level polling is “not reporting the same trends”, and suggests the firm will publish polling over the coming days casting doubt over the aforementioned MediaReach findings from Victoria.

The West Australian published further results on Monday from last week’s Painted Dog Research poll, which credited Mark McGowan with a 91% approval rating, this time on Liberal leader Liza Harvey. Harvey was found to have an approval rating of just 10%, down nine since June, with disapproval unchanged at 37%. The balance included 36% neither satisifed nor dissatisfied and 10% for don’t know – I’m not sure where that leaves the 7% balance. The poll was conducted last week from a sample of 837.

• I took part in a podcast this week with Ben Raue at The Tally Room, together with former Australian Electoral Commission official Michael Maley, in which a highly wonk-ish discussion was had about electoral redistributions.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,679 comments on “Something for everybody”

  1. Mavis @ #2592 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 7:40 pm

    poroti:

    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 7:27 pm

    [‘Ya telling me all those connections,links and patronages have all magically disappeared ? I hope so .’]

    No, there’ye still there. You only have to look at this site for confirmation thereof – no names, no pack drill.

    Such broad brush generalisations do you no favours, Mavis. One swallow doth not a summer make.

  2. If Maine does indeed have Ranked Choice Voting (effectively what we know as option preferential voting), which is looking more likely than not bit is still before the courts, then voting 1 Hawkins, 2 Biden is a good idea in Maine.

  3. Kakuru

    “Julie Bishop appeared because she’s Julie Bishop. Plus something to do with Edith Cowan, first female Australian politician, also from WA. Also something to do with cake”.

    And because Annabelle Crabb is. Bishop fangirl from way back. They used to appear in the social Pages together FFS

  4. Tom the first and best @ #2600 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 7:59 pm

    If Maine does indeed have Ranked Choice Voting (effectively what we know as option preferential voting), which is looking more likely than not bit is still before the courts, then voting 1 Hawkins, 2 Biden is a good idea in Maine.

    You support Republican Party collaborators, do you?

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/republican-wisconsin-elections-commissioner-advised-green-party-20200916-p55w35.html

  5. Cat

    That’s only valid in a First Past the Post system.

    Scammy as it definitely is for the GOP to do.

    I have to laugh. I almost put LNP. Very telling of my opinion.

  6. Mavis says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 7:32 pm
    alfred venison:

    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 7:17 pm

    [‘the call is for (climate) scientists to speak politically. -a.v.’]

    Given the emergent crisis, perhaps you have a point. I really think though that science should keep to science lest it will lose its influence – eg Tim Flannery.
    —–
    i sense a convergence, i’m happily going to leave it there. -cheers, a.v.

  7. C@t

    ” Kakuru

    “Julie Bishop appeared because she’s Julie Bishop. Plus something to do with Edith Cowan, first female Australian politician, also from WA. Also something to do with cake”.

    And because Annabelle Crabb is. Bishop fangirl from way back. They used to appear in the social Pages together FFS

    With Latika Bourke.”

    I was trying to blank that out!

  8. I can believe it.

    Tony Koch
    @TonyKoc69285191
    ·
    8h
    I just read this I can’t believe Chris Uhlmann penned this unintelligent rubbish. It reads as though he picked up a speech by Malcolm Roberts and sent it to SMH by mistake. I have read some lightweight, quite stupid stuff on Covid, but this is right up there. Juvenile. #auspol
    Quote Tweet

    Chris Uhlmann
    @CUhlmann
    · 13h
    Covid-19 in Victoria… destroying the village to save it. @9NewsAUS #auspol https://smh.com.au/national/covid-19-has-hammered-home-some-uncomfortable-truths-about-us-as-a-people-20200915-p55vrb.html

  9. Morrison does announceables to distract of from what he and his crooked cronies are doing behind the scenes.

    RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    ·
    48m
    This is terrible Simon.

    Are you suggesting the pre-announcement on Monday by the announcing journalists before yesterday’s announcement of a “gas recovery” that will also be fully announced in October in the federal budget was really just an empty announcement?

    Gas guff?
    Quote Tweet

    simon holmes à court
    @simonahac
    · 4h
    is anyone offering odds on whether this whole “gas fired recovery” nonsense happens?

    ’cause i’m confident it won’t.

  10. Cosplayers. Perfect description

    friendlyjordies
    @friendlyjordies
    ·
    3h
    The National party are a bunch of Farmer cosplayers.
    @JohnBarilaromp
    lives in Rushcutters bay a few hundred meters from Sydney harbour, when he’s not there he’s in Queanbeyan. The only connection he has with the Bush is his AirBnB estate.


  11. simon holmes à court
    @simonahac
    · 4h
    is anyone offering odds on whether this whole “gas fired recovery” nonsense happens?

    ’cause i’m confident it won’t.

    Of cause it won’t. But you have to be impressed with how quickly the Green/Liberal wedge formed. Military precision, military precision.

  12. Following on from Kevin Bonham’s comment and blog post, I’ve finished wrapping my head around what was originally reported as a YouGov poll of state voting intention in Queensland, which turns out to have been the Courier-Mail entirely dropping the ball. The primary votes (Labor 32%, LNP 38%, Greens 12%) were actually the results of the Courier-Mail’s own YouGov poll from early June, which the pollster used as the foundation for weighting responses to a series of other questions. The Courier-Mail report no longer claims the poll was conducted by YouGov, but continues to present the voting intention numbers as a fresh set of results. The new poll encompassed barely more than 300 respondents. It did, for what it’s worth, find a 56-44 split in favour of the LNP to form government.

    https://aip.asn.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Queensland_Election_Preview_2020.pdf

  13. ajm
    “And because Annabelle Crabb is. Bishop fangirl from way back. They used to appear in the social Pages together FFS”

    J.Bishop did seem rather shoehorned into the show. First Bishop, then the stockmarket crash. It was a shit episode for the Ferrone family.

  14. Palmer looks like he is going to drop some tax deductible petty cash on the Qld election…

    ‘Former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has slammed billionaire Clive Palmer for “bullying” a chief health officer, and demanded Scott Morrison condemn the behaviour.
    Mr Palmer’s United Australia Party on Wednesday authorised a double page ad in Queensland’s major newspaper, The Courier Mail, attacking Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and Chief Health Officer Dr Jeannette Young.

    It comes almost six weeks out from the Queensland election, in which Mr Palmer’s party is expected to enlist a number of candidates around the state.

    Featuring on the first two pages of Wednesday’s edition, the ad includes a photo of Ms Palaszczuk and above it reads “if she doesn’t make the decisions she shouldn’t be in the position.”
    On the second page, Mr Palmer’s ad reads “SHAME ON YOU BOTH!” above photos of Ms Palaszczuk and Dr Young.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/politics/former-pm-kevin-rudd-has-called-out-clive-palmer-for-bullying-qlds-chief-medico/news-story/59f9bbe80cbad0309fc351437f11d719

  15. Can you just say the poll was crook as Rookwood, William, and quit pretending the poll had even the slightest hint of integrity? From your description it was almost completely bogus, including fake attribution.

  16. William Bowe @ #2615 Wednesday, September 16th, 2020 – 8:40 pm

    Following on from Kevin Bonham’s comment and blog post, I’ve finished wrapping my head around what was originally reported as a YouGov poll of state voting intention in Queensland, which turns out to have been the Courier-Mail entirely dropping the ball. The primary votes (Labor 32%, LNP 38%, Greens 12%) were actually the results of the Courier-Mail’s own YouGov poll from early June, which the pollster used as the foundation for weighting responses to a series of other questions. The Courier-Mail report no longer claims the poll was conducted by YouGov, but continues to present the voting intention numbers as a fresh set of results. The new poll encompassed barely more than 300 respondents. It did, for what it’s worth, find a 56-44 split in favour of the LNP to form government.

    https://aip.asn.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Queensland_Election_Preview_2020.pdf

    So much polling is just China Town these days.

  17. New Victorian State poll …

    The estimated two-party preferred vote is Victorian Labor at 53.5% to the Coalition at 46.5%. It’s important to note that the National Party’s vote was obviously the strongest in regional Victoria, outside the large regional centres like Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong. The Greens vote may also be a little under reported because their inner urban constituency is always difficult to survey. That said, we have been detecting a significant shift away from the Greens which we put down to the economic crisis.

    https://kossamaras.blogspot.com/2020/09/dont-mix-politics-with-pandemic.html

  18. Sprocket, that’s about what I’d expect. The Victorian Liberals have made a silly decision in targeting the lockdown measures instead of focusing on the quarantine hotel debacle and sheeting that home to where it belongs. Another reason to explain why the Victorian liberal don’t deserve to be in government, even if the ALP are in the same boat.


  19. Bird of paradox says:
    Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 8:56 pm

    Google: pollbludger Green/Liberal wedge

    About 31,700 results (0.34 seconds)

    Just sayin’.

    Google: Green/Liberal wedge
    About 3,020,000 results (0.49 seconds)
    Just sayin’.

  20. I think it’s really diabolical the way sustained political pressure from the media, who are a part of a vested interest group, the federal government of the opposite political persuasion and their state counterparts, can sway public opinion against a government doing their best under trying and unique circumstances.

    They haven’t completely succeeded yet in toppling their target in the public’s eyes but there’s still a long way to go before the next Victorian state election and I’m sure the miscreants will not let up.

  21. Am I mad or is that Victorian state voting intention graph is not a bad result for the LNP? Getting the VIC ALP out of the 40s in PV is the first step. Although the drop in the ALP vote hasn’t gone to the Libs. I wonder what amorphous entities comprise ‘Others’?

  22. I think it’s really diabolical the way sustained political pressure from the media, who are a part of a vested interest group, the federal government of the opposite political persuasion and their state counterparts, can sway public opinion against a government doing their best under trying and unique circumstances.

    I was thinking the other day that over here we really haven’t seen the bizarre ‘Karens’ and others carrying on about their rights etc that we’ve seen in Melbourne.

    Granted we were in lockdown during the height of the pandemic nationally when people were generally still anxious and there were high levels of public compliance. But we also haven’t had an opposition whipping up hysteria and fear. The Vic Liberals and the federal government really should hang their heads in shame for the way they’ve tried to exploit people doing the right thing for their own political interests

  23. I think it’s really diabolical the way sustained political pressure from the media, who are a part of a vested interest group, the federal government of the opposite political persuasion and their state counterparts, can sway public opinion against a government doing their best under trying and unique circumstances.

    Including, it seems, faking poll results by misrepresenting their origin and import.

    We have also seen, in the last few days, online poll results faked in The Age. You might say “Evrryone knows online polls are highly unreliable” but, if that’s the case, why try to generate a bandwagon effect by faking them? Why are there firms who provide the faking tools for high prices, if faking polls doesn’t work at all?

    Yeah, mugs pay large amounts of money for crystal air energizers, quack homeopathic remedies and watered-down cocktails in fashionable bars. Never give a sucker an even break etc.

    But there really ARE a lot of weak-minded, impressionable people out there, and to influence an election via phoney bandwagons and ersatz astroturf organisations (even whole parties, a la the Palmer mob), you only need to change the minds of a few out of every hundred of them.

  24. poroti

    Rex D

    Rudd could’ve pulled the DD trigger, but he was paralysed with fear. A very poor leader.

    True in hind sight but after enduring the eternity that was The Rodent Age to risk it all so soon may have been a bit daunting. Bird in the hand and all that. I put my hand up to being one of those who was ‘risk averse’ when it came to whether the trigger should be pulled. Events following made me soon wish he had done so. I was bigly wRONg .

    At the risk of starting the Greens / Labor wars again, I remember waking up to the ABC news early in 2009 when Rudd calling a double dissolution (DD) over getting through a price on carbon seemed like a thing to pursue.

    The ABC interviewed Bob Brown, and asked him if he supported a DD to get a price on carbon. Brown then pronounced, in a very serious tone, that “The people of Australia will judge an elected government harshly if they go to an early election”.

    That was when I started to question whether Bob Brown really cared about climate change, or whether he was more concerned about the ascendency of the Greens.

  25. Someone linked this article earlier today.
    He was ABC radio today to talk about it.
    It has resonated strongly here. And his last bit has been my sentiment for ages.

    I’ll never forget how much harder Murdoch, Sunrise, Today, and Pete F@@king Evans made all this.

    And I guarantee you a decent portion of the ordinary – nay, extraordinary – 5 million Melburnians just getting on with it won’t either.

    ***

    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    David Milner
    @DaveMilbo
    ·
    Sep 15
    Here’s me. “Melbourne is not a city in revolt. The truth is far more incredible (and far more boring)”
    Melbourne is not a city in revolt. The truth is far more incredible (and far more boring)
    No one need to sensationalise what life is really like here.
    theshot.net.au

    https://theshot.net.au/general-news/melbourne-is-not-a-city-in-revolt-the-truth-is-far-more-incredible-and-far-more-boring/

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