Counting has concluded for the Currumbin and Bundamba by-elections of a fortnight ago, with Laura Gerber retaining Currumbin for the Liberal National Party by a 1.5% margin against a 1.8% swing to Labor, and Lance McCallum retaining Bundamba for Labor by a 9.6% margin ahead of second-placed One Nation (UPDATE: Make that a 1.2% margin in Currumbin and 9.8% in Bundamba). As noted previously, the flow of Greens preferences to Labor in Currumbin was relatively weak, though not quite decisively so. Deep within the innards of the ECQ’s media feed, it says that Greens preferences were going 1738 to Labor (72.8%) and 651 (27.2%), though this can’t be based on the final figures since the Greens received 2527 rather than 2389 votes. Had Labor received 79.17% of Greens preferences, as they did in the corresponding federal seat of McPherson last May, the margin would have been pared back from 567 (1.5%) to 215 (0.5%).
I have three tables to illustrate the results in light of the highly unusual circumstances of the election, the first of which updates one that appeared in an early post, recording the extent to which voters in the two seats changed their behaviour with respect to how they voted. Election day voting obviously fell dramatically, as voters switched to pre-poll voting and, to only a slightly lesser extent, outright abstention. What was not seen was a dramatic increase in postal voting, which will require investigation given the considerable anecdotal evidence that many who applied for postal votes did not receive their ballots on time — an even more contentious matter in relation to the mess that unfolded in Wisconsin on Tuesday, on which I may have more to say at a later time.
The next two tables divide the votes into four types, polling places, early voting, postal and others, and record the parties’ vote shares and swings compared with 2017, the latter shown in italics. In both Currumbin and Bundamba, Labor achieved their weakest results in swing terms on polling day votes, suggesting Labor voters made the move from election day to pre-poll voting in particularly large numbers, cancelling out what had previously been an advantage to the LNP in pre-poll voting. This is matched by a particularly strong swing against the LNP on pre-polls in Currumbin, but the effect is not discernible in Bundamba, probably because the picture was confused by the party running third and a chunk of its vote being lost to One Nation, who did not contest last time.
In other COVID-19 disruption news:
• The Northern Territory government has rejected calls from what is now the territory’s official opposition, Terry Mills’ Territory Alliance party (UPDATE: Turns out I misheard here – the Country Liberal Party remains the opposition, as Bird of Paradox notes in comments), to postpone the August 22 election. Of the practicalities involved in holding the election under a regime of social distancing rules, which the government insists will be in place for at least six months, Deputy Chief Minister Nicole Manison offers only that “the Electoral Commission is looking at the very important questions of how we make sure that in the environment of COVID-19 that we do this safely”.
• After an initial postponement from May 2 to May 30, the Tasmanian government has further deferred the periodic elections for the Legislative Council seats of Huon and Rosevear, promising only that they will be held by the time the chamber sits on August 25. Three MLCs have written to the Premier requesting that the elections either be held by post or for the terms of the existing members, which will otherwise expire, to be extended through to revised polling date.
• The junior partner in New Zealand’s ruling coalition, Winston Peters of New Zealand First, is calling for the country’s September 19 election to be postponed to November 21, which has also elicited positive noises from the opposition National Party. It might well be thought an element of self-interest is at work here, with Peters wishing to put distance between the election and a donations scandal that has bedeviled his party, and National anticipating a short-term surge in government support amid the coronavirus crisis. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern may be softening in her opposition to the notion, saying earlier this week it would “depend on what alert level we are at”. There has regrettably been no polling of voting intention in New Zealand in two months, although the government recorded enormously encouraging results in a Colmar Brunton poll on handling of the pandemic in New Zealand and eight other countries, conducted last week.
Quoll @ #123 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 11:27 am
You mean like you do? 😐
Dotard’s poll of choice, Rasmussen, well known for a house effect of weighting favourably Republican candidates, has just gone of the Richter scale
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history
Trump approve 43
Trump disapprove 56
Net disapproval 13
JPMorgan economists issued an even more dire forecast, now foreseeing a 40% decline in the USA gross domestic product for the second quarter and a surge in April’s unemployment rate to 20% with 25 million jobs lost.
In an earlier forecast, they said second-quarter GDP would be down 25%.
The economists, however, continue to see a second-half recovery, based on the assumption that disruptions from the pandemic fade by June. They note that the number of people seeking unemployment benefits has totaled 16.8 million in just three weeks.
Don’t forget that an effect on the heart itself by COVID-19 is also being picked up. So a double whammy of heart effect by Hydroxychloroquine and heart effect by COVID-19 would not be the most efficacious combination.
Many in the Greens make the strong argument that “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it.”
But it is broke. The membership don’t get a say in who their leader is. Only those who have made it up the greasy pole of Greens politics.
The relative importance of stuff iin our lives – 2020:
C@tmomma @ #117 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 11:17 am
And with global warming pretty much off the agenda for the time being, it will be interesting to see how voters feel about that existential crisis when we emerge from this one, possibly (if we’re lucky) just in time for another summer.
Rakali
Essential , this
or
S777
haha.
I correlate with most of those lines. The exceptions: bras (my man boobs are firm) and shaving.
One of the decisions I made quite early was to maintain personal standards at BV levels.
Shane Wright’s article in the Sydney Morning Herald is terrible – it manages to completely misunderstand the topic and to recommend extremely damaging and wholly unnecessary policy measures.
The reality is that Australian Government bonds are serviced in the usual way: when an interest payment is due the RBA keystrokes a number into an Exchange Settlement Account. When the bond matures the RBA uses keystrokes to debit a securities account and to credit an Exchange Settlement Account. Taxpayers are not involved. There is no burden on taxpayers because of Australian Government bonds. Anyone who claims that the increase in the amount of Australian Government bonds outstanding will require government spending cuts and/or tax increases does not know what they are talking about.
When the government issues those bonds it is allowing private sector entities to swap one financial asset (Exchange Settlement balances) for another (Australian Government bonds). It is not a borrowing operation for the government. It is an asset swap for the private sector. It has no implications for fiscal policy at all.
C@tmomma @ #157 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 10:18 am
The only reason they are proposing change is because they look so antiquated by comparison to the major parties.
IaD
Our third and most extensive ever Reef bleaching event barely registered.
The main message is brutal: the Reef is cactus.
Bits and pieces, dribs and drabs, will last for a long time. Hot water corals will expand.
But on current trajectories the Reef is cactus.
IMO, the poorer people are the less likely they are to concern themselves with externalities such as environmental outcomes.
There will be scads more poverty and hunger PV (Post Virus). Ergo, concerns such as the Death of the Reef will not loom as large as BV.
Confessions claims
Are you referring to *all* Greens members? If so, not true. I for one expressed my view, a couple of times at least, that the parliamentarians know each others strengths and weaknesses and therefore need a say as to who will be the party room leader.
I have never advocated for the leader to be elected solely by 100% membership.
But then you often slur an entire group such as the Greens despite individual differences.
Mundo must have missed this. You’re welcome!
“Labor leader Anthony Albanese has urged the Morrison government to pursue a “reform agenda” including a boost for manufacturing and new focus on infrastructure and climate change to aid the economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.
“I want to see revitalisation of Australian manufacturing and industry,” Mr Albanese said on Saturday.
“Acting now in order to avert the costs of inaction is sensible,” he said, adding that the “principle applies to climate change and to a range of other issues as well. It applies in my view to the way that we invest in infrastructure. Recognition that an investment isn’t just a cost.”
Mr Albanese said he would continue to lobby for financial assistance to be extended to people who don’t currently qualify.”
https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-global-covid-19-cases-surpass-1-6-million-australian-death-toll-stands-at-54-20200410-p54iz8.html
NSW Numbers:
Total 2857 up 44 (yesterday 49)
Tested 141,000 up 3,500
Deaths 23 up 1
Under treatment 212 stable
ICU 3o down 2
Ventilated 23 up 1
ItzaDream @ #157 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 12:24 pm
It’s something I have mused about myself. I believe they are capable of keeping two thoughts front of mind at once and coming to a conclusion. Basically, what I hope is that people understand that Climate Change is real and is affecting us now (Bushfires and Drought) and that a global pandemic both reminds us that Climate Change is a function of the occurrence of these things AND that governments can take drastic action if they want to and the world doesn’t end. We just end up with a new way of doing things. And it can be a better way, as the Spanish government is showing us.
Horsey writes a post with more than 6 words in a row that she thought up herself.
Bookmark it!
It must be just me, but I struggle to give a rat’s a__e about what the mechanism the Greens use to choose their leader.
As far as I can see, they’ve made a reasonable choice on each of the three occasions they have needed to do so. All their leaders have had some credentials as environmentalists, and are not simply watermelons.
Labor vs Greens on this forum is a major yawn for those of us who don’t care.
sprocket_,
mundo is ALWAYS missing when it counts. That is, to applaud Labor when necessary.
As a party member what is more important? Be able t0 participate in every ballot to select Greens candidates in my area for local, state and federal levels, or participate in a ballot for parliamentary party leader?
When it comes to internal party ballots and democratic participation it is not the Greens who are antiquated.
The Guardian
A few development from Bondi, a Covid-19 hotspot. The local council has made what it says is “the difficult decision” to close the Bondi to Bronte coastal walk. That walk is one of the most popular in Sydney.
Barriers are now being erected at entry points and fines will be issued to those who ignore the closure.
OC: “Ventilated 23 up 1”
What is the maximum number of people NSW can ventilate at one time?
I accept there are two factors at play: 1) the total number of ventilators and 2) the capacity of the staff to insert and monitor them, and that 2) is probably much more limiting than 1) over time.
But the total capacity would be in the hundreds if not low thousands, wouldn’t it?
Nath,
That proves the old Chinese proverb, ‘Be careful what you wish for, for you might not get it.’
Although I am pretty sure I did not wish a plague on Australian voters, and I reckon you would be hard-pressed finding a quote of that written by me.
But I did wish voters enough Right Wing Nuttery until they had enough and more of Right Wing Nutters. I certainly did not want it in the middle of Plague 2020.
I certainly wish Bill Shorten was Prime Minister now. It was one of the biggest mistakes made by voters in many years. They listened to Murdoch and they listened to Clive’s advertisements and now we are up Coronaviras Excrement Creek in a barbwire canoe using our unprotected hands as paddles.
Thanks a million, you stupid, greedy, wilfully-ignorant, fecking dumbarske preeks of voters.
And Nathan, you were about as much use as tits on a fish.
Not just you, I don’t really care either how the Greens choose their leader. It’s the exposed hypocrisy of their members and supporters that is amusing, and a nice, albeit brief break from coronavirus news.
Kronomex @ #145 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 12:05 pm
The extracts in that link (thanks) reveal a persistent medieval belief system – salvation through sacrifice.
I grew up with all that gobbledeegook and its circular arguments – god works in mysterious ways, god hurts those he loves the most – to try to explain the inexplicable, their belief in an interventional deity.
And as for this (out of context, I haven’t access to the full article)
One would have hoped that from many points of view is was good for the Catholic Church. But no, it appears at first glance, that reputation and subscribers in Pell’s mind are more important than the opportunities from cleansing.
Downsides to this pandemic are already emerging. Here is one from Italy:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/mafia-distributes-food-to-italys-struggling-residents
“ The Guardian
A few development from Bondi, a Covid-19 hotspot. The local council has made what it says is “the difficult decision” to close the Bondi to Bronte coastal walk. That walk is one of the most popular in Sydney.
Barriers are now being erected at entry points and fines will be issued to those who ignore the closure.”
Inner West Council and Canada Bay Councils are contemplating a similar move with the even more popular ‘Bay run’ around Iron Cove Bay. I reckon Manly council will be thinking about measures with the spit bridge walk as well.
I reckon that a better way to manage this is to permit folk whose surnames start with a letter from A to L to walk on odd numbered calendar days, with M to Z folk able to walk on even numbered days, or some such variation of the same. Maybe restrict access to these popular walks to true locals – folk whose place of residence is within 5km.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/australia-on-cusp-of-curbing-covid-19-spread-to-point-where-it-dies-out-20200410-p54iy8.html
The penny has dropped.
This is the fastest way out of this. Plans should be, how do we make it happen, not how do we convince Australians that a couple of hundred thousand deaths is ok.
The Ruby princess fiasco has cost lives and billions, rich mukkers should obey the law.
Post Virus, the Government will take the opportunity to put even the pretence of climate action on hold. They’ll actively boost coal and other fossil fuels in the name of “jobs and growth”.
If the LNP Government cuts public spending in a misguided effort to “pay down the debt”, the private sector will respond by cutting back its own spending, and there will be a severe recession. This isn’t the late 1990s and early 2000s. During those years the private sector allowed the government to run surpluses by running private sector deficits. The private sector went into private debt – that was the key factor that enabled the government to run surpluses without causing a recession.
Why were households during the Howard years willing to take on so much debt? House prices were rising fast, which made people feel financially strong. People felt reasonably secure about their jobs and wages. Household debt levels were not already at historic highs.
Today the circumstances are the reverse of the Howard years. Household debt is currently at its highest level in Australian history. Households feel vulnerable about the debt they already hold – they aren’t willing to take on even more debt. Households feel insecure about stagnating wages and precarious employment. The coronavirus pandemic is adding massively to people’s anxiety and vulnerability. Households are in a mood to pay down debt and build up savings. There is no way they will borrow money in order to allow the government to run surpluses or smaller deficits.
A typical pattern during and after a major crisis – a war, a pandemic, a Great Depression – is that households become very cautious. They save. They don’t take on debt.
The LNP Government therefore has no choice but to run large deficits for years to come. Households will not cooperate with a government austerity strategy. If the government are smart they will realize this ahead of time and won’t try to implement austerity. If they do implement austerity they will change course quickly because they will get immediate feedback that the strategy is disastrous. If they cause a recession, their electoral prospects will plummet.
On a different note, apropos of nothing much: I was struck in the early days of the spread of the virus by the prevalence of a cliche that reverberated around the world – particularly, it would seem, from the mouths of senior government health officials – was that “viruses don’t recognise borders or boundaries.”
Those making this comment seemed largely to be promoting the greater use of social distancing, etc. But the quote has a certain truth to it in perhaps the opposite sense to what these people meant by it.
That truth is: because you can’t stop diseases at borders, you have to do everything you can to stop the people who might be carrying them. From the outset, the closing of borders has been very effective in stopping the spread of the virus: when China closed off Hubei from the rest of the country, South Korea did similar with one of its provinces, and now New Zealand and Australia, and even some individual states of the latter, are doing extremely well at reducing the incidence of the virus by controlling borders and imposing compulsory quarantine on those who cross them.
And then you look at the countries where everything got out of control: the Schengen countries of Europe, where there were no effective borders at all except around the entire Schengen zone: but, in that instance, all countries covered by the zone were at risk from the shortcomings of the weakest links: which (although we don’t yet know the whole story) appear to have been Italy and Germany.
The US was also very slow to act on border control: until quite late in March, people travelling to the US on flights from Italy reported no additional surveillance from border control authorities.
Thinking about Schengen, which has brought many benefits to Europe, along with some problems in relation to asylum seekers. I wonder how long it will be until we see the borders come down again and the Schengen arrangements fully restored? Perhaps never?
Rich People Are Questioning Whether We Should Just Let Old People Die To Save The Economy
https://junkee.com/coronavirus-economic-cost/250257
What is Shengen?
“I’m betting that {Morrison} returns to type.”
He never left it. His preferred model of governance remains a feudal corporatist theocracy, and he will see the current situation as just a particularly rich opportunity to ruthlessly exploit the good will and desperation of others in order to shove his real agenda even further down our throats.
MB
Prior to the crisis about 500
Currently about 1200
Aim within 3 weeks 2000+
The initial modelling was that all ventilators in the state would nave been used for COVID patients by April 10
Andrew_Earlwood @ #115 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 11:15 am
‘ if Morrison channels Rudd on the GFC and Keating on Working Nation Etc in the post virus shutdown period with some intelligent well designed stimulus policies he will be likely re-elected.’
Yes Andy, Mundo agrees with you.
My only quibble is with ‘likely’
Not much different to how politicians do it everywhere….just sub “tax cuts” or “cash handouts” for “free food” and you’re there.
Cheers
sprocket_ @ #165 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 12:35 pm
No Sprocko, I didn’t.
Something about swallows and summer……
MB
Staffing is interesting
An anaesthetist or intensivist can manage several ventilated patients at one time but they are nurse intensive. There are currently massive up-skilling programs underway as well as the recruitment of recently retired ICU nurses.
ECMO is another story – it does require high level individual management by a super skilled intensivist
Ok Puffy it wasn’t a plague. But you wanted the people to suffer for voting LNP. ‘let them suffer so that they learn’ was how one bludger labelled your response.
mundo,
Ever-ready with the gimcrack.
Even more ‘fun stuff’ from the virus.
————————————————-
Mysterious Heart Damage, Not Just Lung Troubles, Befalling COVID-19 Patients
As more data comes in from China and Italy, as well as Washington state and New York, more cardiac experts are coming to believe the COVID-19 virus can infect the heart muscle. An initial study found cardiac damage in as many as 1 in 5 patients, leading to heart failure and death even among those who show no signs of respiratory distress.
https://khn.org/news/mysterious-heart-damage-not-just-lung-troubles-befalling-covid-19-patients/
Steve777 @ #144 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 11:58 am
You think Labor – the Opposition- will let that happen?
Dean Ashenden
Don’t waste a good crisis, even in schooling
A new settlement might just appeal to Coalition supporters, and to Labor’s
https://insidestory.org.au/dont-waste-a-good-crisis-even-in-schooling/
The Guardian
Two more deaths have been recorded, taking the national toll to 56. A 91-year-old woman died in NSW, and a man in his 80s died in Victoria.
There is cause for continued optimism in Queensland, NSW and Victoria, where the numbers of new confirmed cases have either stabilised or fallen, despite more testing being conducted. Queensland has described its infection rate as “incredibly low” and has recorded only nine new cases. NSW has recorded 44 new cases, and Victoria has 24 new cases. Tasmania recorded 11 new cases. The ACT recorded no new cases.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #120 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 11:21 am
I’d shunt both Leigh and Chalmers and put Clare O’Neil in the job.
Bushfire Bill @ #167 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 12:40 pm
BB writes a post with less than 500 words.
Bookmark it! 🙂
Steve777 @ #179 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 12:56 pm
Yes, this is my fear also 🙁
Meher
But the Reserve Bank has made some mistakes of its own. It’s strongly arguable that they made a couple of cuts too many and inadvertently triggered the housing boom in the second half of the 2010s.
_______________________________
I would agree. But it just reinforces my point that it’s difficult to swing a sledgehammer.
Pegasus @ #171 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 12:44 pm
And there’s pop up drive through testing on the main Bondi Beach promenade. They must be worried.