Counting has concluded for the Currumbin and Bundamba by-elections of a fortnight ago, with Laura Gerber retaining Currumbin for the Liberal National Party by a 1.5% margin against a 1.8% swing to Labor, and Lance McCallum retaining Bundamba for Labor by a 9.6% margin ahead of second-placed One Nation (UPDATE: Make that a 1.2% margin in Currumbin and 9.8% in Bundamba). As noted previously, the flow of Greens preferences to Labor in Currumbin was relatively weak, though not quite decisively so. Deep within the innards of the ECQ’s media feed, it says that Greens preferences were going 1738 to Labor (72.8%) and 651 (27.2%), though this can’t be based on the final figures since the Greens received 2527 rather than 2389 votes. Had Labor received 79.17% of Greens preferences, as they did in the corresponding federal seat of McPherson last May, the margin would have been pared back from 567 (1.5%) to 215 (0.5%).
I have three tables to illustrate the results in light of the highly unusual circumstances of the election, the first of which updates one that appeared in an early post, recording the extent to which voters in the two seats changed their behaviour with respect to how they voted. Election day voting obviously fell dramatically, as voters switched to pre-poll voting and, to only a slightly lesser extent, outright abstention. What was not seen was a dramatic increase in postal voting, which will require investigation given the considerable anecdotal evidence that many who applied for postal votes did not receive their ballots on time — an even more contentious matter in relation to the mess that unfolded in Wisconsin on Tuesday, on which I may have more to say at a later time.
The next two tables divide the votes into four types, polling places, early voting, postal and others, and record the parties’ vote shares and swings compared with 2017, the latter shown in italics. In both Currumbin and Bundamba, Labor achieved their weakest results in swing terms on polling day votes, suggesting Labor voters made the move from election day to pre-poll voting in particularly large numbers, cancelling out what had previously been an advantage to the LNP in pre-poll voting. This is matched by a particularly strong swing against the LNP on pre-polls in Currumbin, but the effect is not discernible in Bundamba, probably because the picture was confused by the party running third and a chunk of its vote being lost to One Nation, who did not contest last time.
In other COVID-19 disruption news:
• The Northern Territory government has rejected calls from what is now the territory’s official opposition, Terry Mills’ Territory Alliance party (UPDATE: Turns out I misheard here – the Country Liberal Party remains the opposition, as Bird of Paradox notes in comments), to postpone the August 22 election. Of the practicalities involved in holding the election under a regime of social distancing rules, which the government insists will be in place for at least six months, Deputy Chief Minister Nicole Manison offers only that “the Electoral Commission is looking at the very important questions of how we make sure that in the environment of COVID-19 that we do this safely”.
• After an initial postponement from May 2 to May 30, the Tasmanian government has further deferred the periodic elections for the Legislative Council seats of Huon and Rosevear, promising only that they will be held by the time the chamber sits on August 25. Three MLCs have written to the Premier requesting that the elections either be held by post or for the terms of the existing members, which will otherwise expire, to be extended through to revised polling date.
• The junior partner in New Zealand’s ruling coalition, Winston Peters of New Zealand First, is calling for the country’s September 19 election to be postponed to November 21, which has also elicited positive noises from the opposition National Party. It might well be thought an element of self-interest is at work here, with Peters wishing to put distance between the election and a donations scandal that has bedeviled his party, and National anticipating a short-term surge in government support amid the coronavirus crisis. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern may be softening in her opposition to the notion, saying earlier this week it would “depend on what alert level we are at”. There has regrettably been no polling of voting intention in New Zealand in two months, although the government recorded enormously encouraging results in a Colmar Brunton poll on handling of the pandemic in New Zealand and eight other countries, conducted last week.
The shallow mediocrity of most auspol and the major party duopoly, essentially being sold out to their donors and gutless followers of what others do overseas, lacking much vision or gumption, means that any attempts at fossil fueled recovery seems likely to leave Australia stranded.
Coal seems more likely to be killed by lack of interest and markets OS after this and the many Green new deals likely to be started. Particularly if dotard is gone by end of the year.
To: Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews
Car Protests are Safe, Detention Centres are Not
https://www.megaphone.org.au/petitions/cavalcade-protest-is-safe-detention-centres-are-not-free-the-refugees
“No authoritarian shutdown of protest
RAC activist Chris Breen was arrested in his home before the Good Friday Mantra protest against refugee detention. Police issued 26 fines to protesters who were safely demonstrating against the ongoing detention of refugees in the Mantra and across Australia.
The hypocrisy is staggering. Our protest was completely safe, with only two people per car (from the same household) and no one getting out of their cars. Our protest was safer than going shopping, safer than travelling on public transport, safer than non essential work that continues, and safer by an order of magnitude than being stuck in a sealed corridor in the Mantra.
People are up to 4 in a room detained in hotels. At Kangaroo Point in Brisbane, refugees are a maximum of 65cm apart in meal queues. Serco employees do not practise physical distancing and come and go. It is only a matter of time before coronavirus devastates detention centres.
Over 1200 doctors have signed a letter calling for the release of refugees from detention. ALP federal MPs Ged Kearney and Peter Khalil have called for the release of refugees in the Mantra, and income support for those in the community.
We call on Premier Daniel Andrews to use the health powers to release refugees, to revoke the fines and charges, and to allow safe public protest.”
————————————-
Chris Breen and the people who were booked by police will contest the penalties in court.
MB:’I assume the infection control measures are insufficient and/or inadequately applied.’
Having spoken two doctors at two different hospitals here in Melbourne, both are the case.
Inadequate PPE and inappropriate directives has really sapped morale. This has a potential to be a very expensive mistake by the ‘authorities’. Evidence is being collected and documented for a big ‘lay down misere’ class action that I am sure the legal fraternity are salivating at.
A new bill has been introduced in the Senate which if passed would punish Saudi Arabia over failure to cut oil production by removing all US troops from the kingdom within 30 days.
Sen. Bill Cassidy (Republican -Louisiana) introduced it after Louisiana and other states have been impacted by the ongoing OPEC+ crisis and price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia. As of Friday OPEC+ appears to be closing in on a deal which would see a production cut of 10 million barrels a day, which S&P Global Platts still warned “isn’t enough to plug the 15- to 20-million b/d near-term imbalance in the marketplace and avoid tank tops in May.”
Sen. Cassidy’s bill would also impose tariffs on all Saudi oil imports within ten days of enactment, also aiming to ensure prices would not dip to below $40 a barrel.
No worries. Elon is onto it, making ventilators from car parts (as you do) !
https://youtu.be/zZbDg24dfN0
Yes Peg
All candidates at all levels of govt are elected entirely and directly by local Greens members, as far as I am aware this is across the country. We have electronic voting that’s been going for years. No factional deals or jobs for mates or fossil fuel donors. One vote for every member. Systems for voting for a leader were not required when there was no such formal position as ‘leader’, as is still the case in NSW.
There was just a vote for NSW council election candidates.
Most democratic and forward thinking party in Australia compared to the redundant encumbent major parties.
Some really can’t help themselves, talking about what they claim they can’t be bothered talking about, again and again.
Good ol George Pell, only been out of jail 5 minutes and already telling us how superior he is to those of us who don’t believe in his sky fairy.
Itza:
The lesson that should be Cardinal Pell’s mind is this:
Thrice Simon Peter—later the first Pope—had the chance to bear witness for Christ. Three times he failed, on the advice of his fearful worldly mind he sought refuge in worldly denial.
Thrice Cardinal Pell—the Pope’s Right Hand—had the chance to bear witness for Christ. Three times he failed through remaining silent, on the advice of worldly lawyers so sought refuge in worldly law.
Christ—completely innocent and without hesitation—died for the sins of all. Cardinal Pell was not even willing to speak of the sins of the Church he led, even though it was the opportunity (sent by God one might think) really to begin the healing process so sorely needed. It is very difficult to see how the differing actions of Christ and Cardinal Pell are aligned.
Holdenhillbilly @ #204 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 1:41 pm
Now, what was all that neoliberal crap about “efficient markets” … ? 🙁
Holdenhillbilly
FMD that was THE bee in the bonnet of Osama bin Laden. It was what set off the whole jihad/Al Qaeda crapola . Now here we have the US of A threatening to do just what Osama bin Laden wanted/demanded all those years ago 😆
ItzaDream @ #175 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 12:51 pm
Pell:
Possibly she was just reminding you that she knew what you’d been up to, even though it may not be upheld by the courts?
Nath,
Yes, sometimes suffering the consequences of stupidity is the only way. I make no apology for anything I said post-election. Voters who would throw the kids out of the lifeboat to preserve more food and water for themselves deserve no less.
OC
Sitting on the verandah in rocking chairs recalling the good ole bad ole days –
I remember (RNSH) when neonates were hand ventilated by anaesthetic registrars in two hour shifts in the general recovery room. There was no ITU as such, only several areas across a vast campus where groups of patients were cared for intensively – general recovery room, receiving room (off A&E and coronary care – acute spinal injuries, trauma, cardiac), cranie bay (neurosurgical), room 117 (thoracic – in the old TB block), etc.
It’s why I switched campuses. Bob W had just started / pioneered ITUs as we know them today, as well as getting very active in upscaling the ambulance service and skills.
Well said, E. G. Theodore.
Of course God was with Pell.
She was giving you one last chance before she booked your room in The Hell Hotel.
Bushfire Bill @ #167 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 12:40 pm
BB farts in text form. Predictably foul and obnoxious.
Puffytmd
One of my fave cartoons has the devil with a new arrival. Both sitting in comfy armchairs, a brandy and cigar in hand by a fireplace. The devil saying to the surprised looking new chap “Well I must admit they have a superb PR department” 🙂
E. G. Theodore @ #208 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 1:59 pm
Thanks. Peter wept, and was forgiven. My belief is that all are forgiven (with neither time nor inclination to explore what forgiveness means at the moment). Pell behaves imo like a man who believes in his own guilt and lack of forgiveness – projecting his own superiority (as seapooch has well noted) and goodness.
That you are pointing out how unChrist like Pell appears resonates.
Surely people see the difference without needing to be told……………
Counterchekist
@counterchekist
·
1h
Comparing COVID-19 fatalities to the flu is a stupid comparison. The flu kills 24,00-62,000 over 12 months. COVID-19 has already killed 18,400 in 3 months with extreme social distancing measures to combat the spread.
Cc:
@DrDenaGrayson
@DineshDSouza
can f—k right off.
Quote Tweet
Josh Jordan
@NumbersMuncher
· 3h
Every one of these people who downplayed coronavirus from the start know exactly what they’re doing.
They know that the insane efforts to contain coronavirus are the reason we might be lucky enough to “only” have 60,000 deaths, but they hope you’re too stupid to realize it. https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/s
Itza:
I get the impression that the better versions of this sort of thing (which presumably this one is, I noticed it had humidification etc) could be used in the first 24-48 hours if a real ventilator is temporarily unavailable but that they are not appropriate for weaning and there may also be COVID19 specific problems arising during ventilation that they don’t handle well.
Is it feasible to put a patient on one of these for 48 hours and then swap?
Presumably there are some pts who need real ventilators immediately or who need to be swapped before 48 hours?
By how much would that increase the capacity of a ventilator fleet? I.e. if there are R real ventilators and X Tesla ventilators, I percent patients who need immediate ventilation on real ventilators and T distribution of the times patients can safely be on Telsa ventilators then what does the ventilation capacity C as a function of R, X, I and T look like? Would it be approximately 1.1 R (i.e. a limit at that level? and thus mostly independent of T?
Presumably one Tesla ventilator per patient is better than a real ventilator for two patients with a Y-junction, since the latter can’t utilize feedback?
Somewhere there is a discussion from real biomechanical engineer about the subtleties of advanced ventilation; it’s hard to do…
Puffytmd @ #215 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 1:41 pm
Oops mixed my persons.
In a courtroom there for you to tell,
Of course, God was with you, Mr Pell.
She was giving you a chance
To change your word and stance,
Before She booked your room in Hotel Hell.
‘Quoll says:
Saturday, April 11, 2020 at 1:37 pm
The shallow mediocrity of most auspol and the major party duopoly, essentially being sold out to their donors and gutless followers of what others do overseas, lacking much vision or gumption, means that any attempts at fossil fueled recovery seems likely to leave Australia stranded.
Coal seems more likely to be killed by lack of interest and markets OS after this and the many Green new deals likely to be started. Particularly if dotard is gone by end of the year.’
1. There is no evidence that the first national Green Old Deals will start PV. There is evidence for the reverse. Economies crippled by personal, corporate and state debt, disrupted production chains, disrupted and reduced international trading patterns, and massively depressed consumption demand are unlikely to take the punt.
2. Australian thermal coal export prices were in free fall BV. There is no particular reason to suppose that trend will reverse itself PV.
3. The gap between oil production and consumption is unlikely to change rapidly PV. Oil will be dirt cheap in the initial years PV.
4. The huge excess of supply over consumption of (therefore) increasingly cheap thermal coal and dirt cheap oil will put massive downward pressure on energy costs such that it is unlikely that we will be seeing an (unsubsidized) growth spurt in renewable energy in the immediate PV years.
5. Massive reductions in GDP, personal, corporate and national wealth consequent to the Virus will severely limit the scope of governments to act.
6. Massive backlogs in everything from elective surgery to rail maintenance will get priority over adventurism.
Ryan StruykVerified account @ryanstruyk
Reported US coronavirus cases via @CNN:
5 weeks ago: 332 cases
4 weeks ago: 2,204 cases
3 weeks ago: 18,763 cases
2 weeks ago: 101,242 cases
1 week ago: 277,953 cases
Right now: 500,399 cases
Reported US coronavirus deaths via @CNN:
4 weeks ago: 49 deaths
3 weeks ago: 249 deaths
2 weeks ago: 1,588 deaths
1 week ago: 7,152 deaths
Right now: 18,693 deaths
E. G. Theodore @ #220 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 2:20 pm
The Tesla is still first run prototype by the look and the absence of a weaning function (taking the patient of muscle relaxants and having their own inspiratory effort augmented) shouldn’t be too hard to address. But regardless, you can change ventilators (to suit, or for whatever reason) anytime. It just a matter of logistics.
The basics are rate, inspiratory pressure, volume, flow rate, inspiratory time, expiratory time, end tidal expiratory pressure, all interacting, and with limits and alarms. Humidification (and warming) is external to the box.
phoenixRED
An article in the NYT (?) reckoned the NY death toll is much higher than reported. The reason being, the number of people being found dead in the homes or on the street has sky rocketed but they are not being added to the official toll.
poroti @ #225 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 2:33 pm
Did you post the photo of bodies buried in unmarked graves in a park on an island? Unidentified, or too poor to afford a funeral. New York City no less, the epicentre of epicentres.
7. The ruling right wing coalition are owned by and beholden to Big Coal and other fossil fuel interests.
ItzaDream
Did indeed. A few short weeks from 0 to mass graves in the park. If only we could make the pollies and the mindless shock jocks listen to their ‘hoax’ etc etc bullshit re the virus on a 24 hour non stop loop for say 72 hours straight. They can look at that picture to keep themselves ‘amused’.
p
Not just in New York.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-08/coronavirus-could-cause-240,000-deaths-in-indonesia/12131778
S777
My view, FWIW, is that the fossil fuel market is stonkered for years to come and will largely be beyond the power of Australian governments to influence to any marked degree.
ACT daily new cases sequence: 0,1,2,1,3,0*
*today, hour to date.
Additional random testing is, thus far, not exposing hitherto undetected cases of non-symptomatic cases.
Over Easter I have noticed additional NSW number plates locally. I do hope the fuckers have left the Virus at home.
Pretty predictable.
We had with those who said the GFC was a myth. Y2K was a beat-up. And going to war was the best time of their lives.
Oh, also tsunamis aren’t real, and asteroids stopped impacting Earth millions of years ago. None of that science fictiony rubbish happens anymore.
While it’s true I’m personally upbeat about a safe drug treatment (complementing the presently offered palliative care) being discovered to take the edge off coronavirus fatality rates, until one is actually discovered I’m staying hunkered down.
Spoke to a Belgian man this morning at a local coffee shop, right on the lake here. He was there with his 3 year old daughter – a delightful and beautiful little girl with a personality and charm big enough to fill a stadium. They had just been for their last swim in Australia.
He, his wife and his little girl had been stuck here in a B&B for 2 weeks. They were supposed to be in Darwin now, but had to change plans when the lockdown was imposed. He couldn’t imagine a lovlier place to be locked down: rainforest, lakes, beaches, people who smile and wave to you for no reason other than to say hello. I thought that Hi and I take where we live too much for granted sometimes.
They are all on a plane tonight out of Sydney at 9.30pm, back to Belgium. It cost him $18,000 for the fares, using two airlines. The trip will take over 50 hours.
When they get back they will be in lockdown for 14 days automatically, and when they get out the country will be saturated with the virus. He’s lost his job back home (in “financial IT”) and his wife isn’t sure about her part time employment either.
He was frank enough to admit to us that he is scared. As his little daughter ran around giggling and chasing the pelicans, he had tears in his eyes telling us.
It’s no myth, this virus.
They also listened to the dolt Bowen who told them not to vote for Labor.
Boerwar
The biggie is the US of A’s fracker peeps’ oil. Hugely expensive and floating on a sea of debt. Prices are not going to go up and the Russkiy and Saudis have the ‘Mercans by the short an curlies on that score. The ‘Frackoil’ was meant to be the big game changer re oil independence. Now we can only look forward to seeing what magical financial bullshit will be used to stop that millstone from dragging them all down.
Yabba, glad you are here. I have a question about LP. If I have read what you have written correctly, and from my secondary maths classes LP is a matter of solving a set of simultaneous equations to get an optimum result. Apologises if I have it wrong.
What has been bothering me, is I think you mentioned re-iterations to get a result. From what I imagine, you would insert some random starting numbers in and solve. Repeat with a new set of starting numbers based on the first to calculations and solve and gradually change these numbers as you zero into an acceptable result. This is a lot of calculating thus the need for a heavy duty computer.
Is that correct or is there another reason for using re-iterations?
Bushfire
Morison must be very afraid of the myth-makers at Sky & 2GB, since it should be within his power to tell them to STFU.
I thought Queanbeyan was a suburb of Canberra?
lizzies
If he truly believes the teachings of his church re the cause and cure of disease then he would probably be wanting to give them a high 5.
‘poroti says:
Saturday, April 11, 2020 at 2:59 pm
Boerwar
The biggie is the US of A’s fracker peeps’ oil. Hugely expensive and floating on a sea of debt. Prices are not going to go up and the Russkiy and Saudis have the ‘Mercans by the short an curlies on that score. The ‘Frackoil’ was meant to be the big game changer re oil independence. Now we can only look forward to seeing what magical financial bullshit will be used to stop that millstone from dragging them all down.’
Yep. I noticed that the US is (a) threatening the Saudis if they fail to cut their oil output as agreed and (b) putting some sort of trade restraint on o/s oil entering the US. The Virus economic race to the bottom is on in earnest. The immediate problem is that the 10 million bbl per day cut in production covers only half of the 20 million bbl per day drop in consumption. The more expensive producers and the sanctioned producers are going to hit the wall.
‘NE Qld says:
Saturday, April 11, 2020 at 3:03 pm
I thought Queanbeyan was a suburb of Canberra?’
Struggletown is just on the ‘right’ side of the ACT/NSW border, depending on how you want to scam the border.
Presser with Dep CMO and the Press are push, push, push about when restrictions can be lifted. By this time I might have walked off in anger.
poroti says: Saturday, April 11, 2020 at 2:33 pm
phoenixRED
An article in the NYT (?) reckoned the NY death toll is much higher than reported. The reason being, the number of people being found dead in the homes or on the street has sky rocketed but they are not being added to the official toll.
*******************************************************
Hi Poroti – that seems to be a common problem in every country where they are only counting hospital deaths in their totals …..the real total must be significant …..
The US figures I posted above today of cases/deaths are totally frightful and according to US researcher Dr Dena Grayson that Victoria and I follow – the worse is still yet to come in the US – she says the peak is still 2-3 weeks away and will be horrendous ….
BW,
If you’re not in Melbourne, you are just camping.
Sorry Boerwar, I was being unfairly facetious. Thinking of legitimate reasons for NSW cars to be in ACT. And from Bungendore, Hall, Yass, Sutton… 🙂 I don’t see any logical reason for Canberra to be a popular Easter destination for New South Welshman?
lizzie @ #241 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 3:16 pm
They’re like little kids “Muuum … are we there yet? … Muuum … “
frednk @12:55
Yes, its was a noticeable shift in rhetoric. But what they aren’t doing is talking about massively increasing testing – going into the community and chasing the virus rather than waiting for people to get sick and only then tested. That penny hasn’t dropped yet, and part of the reason is that the media isn’t pursuing it.
Progress has been frustratingly slow the past few days. This goes one of two ways.
Either:
A: We keep doing what we are doing and the virus dies out. Possible, but it will take a long time before we can confidently conclude that.
B: We begin mass testing. On top of what we are already doing, this will guarantee elimination of the virus. Plus we get our economy working again sooner.
‘NE Qld says:
Saturday, April 11, 2020 at 3:23 pm
Sorry Boerwar, I was being unfairly facetious. Thinking of legitimate reasons for NSW cars to be in ACT. And from Bungendore, Hall, Yass, Sutton… I don’t see any logical reason for Canberra to be a popular Easter destination for New South Welshman?’
Probably visiting family and friends, I imagine. Not a good look, IMO.
GG
Melbourne used to be good to live in. It still is, if you enjoy parking on freeways.
Victorian authorities are expecting stranded Australians to return from Peru, India and Uruguay this weekend.
More than 1,200 Australians are expected to land at Tullamarine airport this weekend.
The flight from Uruguay is bringing passengers of the Greg Mortimer cruise ship home. About 70% of Greg Mortimer passengers have tested positive for Covid-19.
Boerwar
They may be attracted by the current low ebb of Canbra’s Politician Infestation.