Counting has concluded for the Currumbin and Bundamba by-elections of a fortnight ago, with Laura Gerber retaining Currumbin for the Liberal National Party by a 1.5% margin against a 1.8% swing to Labor, and Lance McCallum retaining Bundamba for Labor by a 9.6% margin ahead of second-placed One Nation (UPDATE: Make that a 1.2% margin in Currumbin and 9.8% in Bundamba). As noted previously, the flow of Greens preferences to Labor in Currumbin was relatively weak, though not quite decisively so. Deep within the innards of the ECQ’s media feed, it says that Greens preferences were going 1738 to Labor (72.8%) and 651 (27.2%), though this can’t be based on the final figures since the Greens received 2527 rather than 2389 votes. Had Labor received 79.17% of Greens preferences, as they did in the corresponding federal seat of McPherson last May, the margin would have been pared back from 567 (1.5%) to 215 (0.5%).
I have three tables to illustrate the results in light of the highly unusual circumstances of the election, the first of which updates one that appeared in an early post, recording the extent to which voters in the two seats changed their behaviour with respect to how they voted. Election day voting obviously fell dramatically, as voters switched to pre-poll voting and, to only a slightly lesser extent, outright abstention. What was not seen was a dramatic increase in postal voting, which will require investigation given the considerable anecdotal evidence that many who applied for postal votes did not receive their ballots on time — an even more contentious matter in relation to the mess that unfolded in Wisconsin on Tuesday, on which I may have more to say at a later time.
The next two tables divide the votes into four types, polling places, early voting, postal and others, and record the parties’ vote shares and swings compared with 2017, the latter shown in italics. In both Currumbin and Bundamba, Labor achieved their weakest results in swing terms on polling day votes, suggesting Labor voters made the move from election day to pre-poll voting in particularly large numbers, cancelling out what had previously been an advantage to the LNP in pre-poll voting. This is matched by a particularly strong swing against the LNP on pre-polls in Currumbin, but the effect is not discernible in Bundamba, probably because the picture was confused by the party running third and a chunk of its vote being lost to One Nation, who did not contest last time.
In other COVID-19 disruption news:
• The Northern Territory government has rejected calls from what is now the territory’s official opposition, Terry Mills’ Territory Alliance party (UPDATE: Turns out I misheard here – the Country Liberal Party remains the opposition, as Bird of Paradox notes in comments), to postpone the August 22 election. Of the practicalities involved in holding the election under a regime of social distancing rules, which the government insists will be in place for at least six months, Deputy Chief Minister Nicole Manison offers only that “the Electoral Commission is looking at the very important questions of how we make sure that in the environment of COVID-19 that we do this safely”.
• After an initial postponement from May 2 to May 30, the Tasmanian government has further deferred the periodic elections for the Legislative Council seats of Huon and Rosevear, promising only that they will be held by the time the chamber sits on August 25. Three MLCs have written to the Premier requesting that the elections either be held by post or for the terms of the existing members, which will otherwise expire, to be extended through to revised polling date.
• The junior partner in New Zealand’s ruling coalition, Winston Peters of New Zealand First, is calling for the country’s September 19 election to be postponed to November 21, which has also elicited positive noises from the opposition National Party. It might well be thought an element of self-interest is at work here, with Peters wishing to put distance between the election and a donations scandal that has bedeviled his party, and National anticipating a short-term surge in government support amid the coronavirus crisis. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern may be softening in her opposition to the notion, saying earlier this week it would “depend on what alert level we are at”. There has regrettably been no polling of voting intention in New Zealand in two months, although the government recorded enormously encouraging results in a Colmar Brunton poll on handling of the pandemic in New Zealand and eight other countries, conducted last week.
1,986 comments on “Of plagues and houses”
Monday, April 13, 2020 at 11:01 pm”
The journalist at the Australian seems to have misunderstood Hunt.
The Guardian has the quote below. Movements are at 13% of typical levels, not reduced by 13%
“They have responded with the best sense of Australia imaginable. The hard data is that our transport movements have been below 13% over the Thursday, Friday and Saturday of Easter, with Easter Sunday data still to come.
Below 13% of the average movements for this time in an ordinary year. That means that Australians are making a difference. They are saving lives and protecting lives with their own actions. Staying at home. Maintaining the distance. Responding to the requests.”
“One difference is that if someone owns a holiday home it probably* wasn’t occupied by random (and possibly C19 positive) strangers the day before. Not so with hotel rooms and holiday rentals.”
Pft. Make it a rule that hotels have to keep the room empty for a week before renting it out long term.
Cud Chewer @ #1914 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 11:07 pm
I don’t know whether my son was lucky or unlucky to get in there, and hopefully survive, back in early March?
The travel may well reduce the danger to the community.
What drives SfM is very different from what drives Gladys and the leader of the Nats, Barilaro.
Scot wants to look like a leader, and wants to return to the desired economic order.
For Galdys it’s fear. Fear of the consequences of an explosion of cases leading to city hospitals being swamped, and doctors having to triage patients’ access to ventilators. Not enough beds, equipment or doctors in hospitals is her vulnerability.
For John Barilaro it’s the fear of city dwellers taking the virus to country areas, swamping country hospitals (and exposing their inadequacies). This is why he was strongly, if not aggresively, telling people to stay at home this weekend.
Both know they have allowed NSW hospitals to run down. Not enough PPE, not enough ICU beds and generally poor bed to population ratios – this is their legacy after 9 years in power.
I expect Galdys to resist Scotty’s push to open things up before she is satisfied she will be safe from blame.
You are almost certainly correct – a sort of felix culpa, as they say in the Church of Rome!
C@t maybe he’s hiding in Wildfire station?
Pegasus @ #1876 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 8:43 pm
Obama set the threshold for “rich” as $250k USD in income, some number of years ago. At the current exchange rate that’s near $400k. And probably more than that if you account for inflation between whenever Obama said that and now.
Not that Obama is necessarily any sort of authority on the subject. But does provide some basis for not thinking that anyone who says “AU$200k isn’t rich” is automatically stupid.
Agreed. Although there are also pressures on the other side – including some state bureaucrats who really don’t get the idea of elimination – who really do think in terms of it being inevitable that the virus will spread through the population however slowly. These people I do not like.
There’s also pressure on Gladys from the right wing media. A lot of pressure.
Obama was politically required to set the threshold high.
While I don’t regard someone on 250k a year as filthy rich, they certainly aren’t struggling and certainly can afford to pay a decent share of tax.
So $250K was definitely well off!
I have always said that the best doctors can be found working at least some of the time in the Public Hospital system. That’s where the challenging cases end up. So it’s just bone-headed for the NeoLiberals to pump up the tires of the Private Health system at the expense of the Public Health system.
Because, and it was bound to happen sooner or later, something would come along to break through the boundaries that they had set up between the two systems and the nation would really, really need the Public Hospital and Public Health system and all that it has within its walls.
I think that the Coalition is just very lucky they have had broad societal co-operation in squashing the curve and so those cases requiring the expert care needed to manage a bad case of Coronavirus have been able to be accommodated in the Public Hospital system, with a bit of overlap with the Private Hospitals.
Is it near Phoenix, Arizona? 😀
“There’s also pressure on Gladys from the right wing media. A lot of pressure.”
Yes, that is becoming more obvious by the day.
But she really has no choice but to hold the line against relaxing restrictions.
Things can blow out very quickly, as she is probably very well aware.
And the RW media will kick her to death if case numbers explode.
I’m sure you will all be pleased that my chest infection and ongoing viral symptoms are not COVID19. I didn’t think it was. I’d just really like to get my sense of smell and taste back.
“And that is apt to make you feel poorer than you are. As the social researcher Rebecca Huntley noted in a blog for MLC last year, the result is that 60 per cent of households with incomes of about $145,000 misidentified themselves as being middle class.
That is two classroom school teachers at 1.2 range living together.
Two nurses could clear $145k a year.
What it shows is how well paid Australians are.
Absolutely right – by so visiting (or even returning to a normal city residence) the risk to both the person and community is increased. So don’t do it.
Victor Harbor has the oldest median age in Australia. My oncologist was told by his mother (who lives in VH) that he wasn’t to visit VH for any reason!
Horses for courses!
Agreed. Very, very lucky that Australians were ahead of our PM, having seen what was happening overseas. Co-operation has been high, and generally cheerfully given.
Gladys needs to manage things carefully. She’s been good so far.
I would be unsurprised if trust in her exceeded trust in our PM.
shellbell is a big fan of Gladys. 🙂
I do think we need to remember that she has done some things very poorly as well, and other things she did were at the urging of the NSW Labor Opposition.
If it’s the flu I’ve had for the last 6 weeks then your sense of taste and smell comes back after about a month, but, of course, everyone is different. Just trying to give you some hope.
Overall I am not a fan of Gladys. The list of things I dislike about her is long.
I am just glad that she has acted as she has re covid-19.
I have actively campaigned against the state LNP in two previous elections, (supporting the local Labor candidate) and will do so again, provided I am vertical.
I am very worried about what our PM will do if given the chance re relaxing restrictions, so Gladys remains my only hope.
And that’s a worry, too.
C@t @11:27 yeah not that far 🙂
Iceland finds that half its citizens with coronavirus have shown no symptoms: The island nation has tested more of its population for COVID-19 than any other country
Which simply reinforces the worries many of us here have already
(there’s a song there somewhere 🙂
From Abba, Maude? 🙂
Precisely what I’ve been bitching on about for weeks. Mass random testing is a powerful tool.
@12:16.. nah that’s not correct
Which, of course, is the reason for everybody wearing masks when out in public.
Patsy Cline, Walkin’ after midnight.
ABC radio show nightline on now. Talking about the “end game” and about elimination.
First caller points out when Australia eliminated TB, every person was tested.
Louise Tucker – Midnight Blue
Let’s see how much more the $200k+ battlers think the need to be well off 🙂
Some ‘interesting’ developments out of UK Labour, involving Tom Watson and others, and a flurry of twitter activity complete with ‘leaks’
One allegation is that Watson manipulated the NEC inquiry into Ken Livingstone to extend his suspension for 12 months – when Corbyn was pushing for expulsion – to drag out the anti-semitism furore to damage Labour and undermine Corbyn
And a general campaign in the background – in the run up to the 2017 election – to undermine Corbyn from within
As a Labour member I’m disgusted with it
So Ken Livingstone was suspended for comments that offended Jewish people
Tom Watson delayed the expulsion to make Corbyn look bad & make Corbyn look Anti-Semitic
In other words Tom Watson used Jewish people as a football to hit Corbyn with
Mike (one of those Trots)
This is the most damning quote I’ve found thus far: Emilie Oldknow saying she had Tom Watson delay the expulsion of Ken Livingston to embarrass Jeremy Corbyn, despite his demanding a resolution.
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12:42 PM · Apr 13, 2020·Twitter Web App
[‘Cardinal George Pell is being investigated over new child abuse allegations made by a different accuser according to reports.
The Victorian Police have been secretly investigating the claims according to an exclusive report from the Herald Sun. The accuser is a male who works in a professional role who made claims about alleged child sex abuse that date back to the 1970s.’]