Of plagues and houses

Results finalised on Queensland’s two status quo state by-election results, and COVID-19 question marks over looming elections in New Zealand, the Northern Territory and for two Tasmanian upper house seats.

Counting has concluded for the Currumbin and Bundamba by-elections of a fortnight ago, with Laura Gerber retaining Currumbin for the Liberal National Party by a 1.5% margin against a 1.8% swing to Labor, and Lance McCallum retaining Bundamba for Labor by a 9.6% margin ahead of second-placed One Nation (UPDATE: Make that a 1.2% margin in Currumbin and 9.8% in Bundamba). As noted previously, the flow of Greens preferences to Labor in Currumbin was relatively weak, though not quite decisively so. Deep within the innards of the ECQ’s media feed, it says that Greens preferences were going 1738 to Labor (72.8%) and 651 (27.2%), though this can’t be based on the final figures since the Greens received 2527 rather than 2389 votes. Had Labor received 79.17% of Greens preferences, as they did in the corresponding federal seat of McPherson last May, the margin would have been pared back from 567 (1.5%) to 215 (0.5%).

I have three tables to illustrate the results in light of the highly unusual circumstances of the election, the first of which updates one that appeared in an early post, recording the extent to which voters in the two seats changed their behaviour with respect to how they voted. Election day voting obviously fell dramatically, as voters switched to pre-poll voting and, to only a slightly lesser extent, outright abstention. What was not seen was a dramatic increase in postal voting, which will require investigation given the considerable anecdotal evidence that many who applied for postal votes did not receive their ballots on time — an even more contentious matter in relation to the mess that unfolded in Wisconsin on Tuesday, on which I may have more to say at a later time.

The next two tables divide the votes into four types, polling places, early voting, postal and others, and record the parties’ vote shares and swings compared with 2017, the latter shown in italics. In both Currumbin and Bundamba, Labor achieved their weakest results in swing terms on polling day votes, suggesting Labor voters made the move from election day to pre-poll voting in particularly large numbers, cancelling out what had previously been an advantage to the LNP in pre-poll voting. This is matched by a particularly strong swing against the LNP on pre-polls in Currumbin, but the effect is not discernible in Bundamba, probably because the picture was confused by the party running third and a chunk of its vote being lost to One Nation, who did not contest last time.

In other COVID-19 disruption news:

• The Northern Territory government has rejected calls from what is now the territory’s official opposition, Terry Mills’ Territory Alliance party (UPDATE: Turns out I misheard here – the Country Liberal Party remains the opposition, as Bird of Paradox notes in comments), to postpone the August 22 election. Of the practicalities involved in holding the election under a regime of social distancing rules, which the government insists will be in place for at least six months, Deputy Chief Minister Nicole Manison offers only that “the Electoral Commission is looking at the very important questions of how we make sure that in the environment of COVID-19 that we do this safely”.

• After an initial postponement from May 2 to May 30, the Tasmanian government has further deferred the periodic elections for the Legislative Council seats of Huon and Rosevear, promising only that they will be held by the time the chamber sits on August 25. Three MLCs have written to the Premier requesting that the elections either be held by post or for the terms of the existing members, which will otherwise expire, to be extended through to revised polling date.

• The junior partner in New Zealand’s ruling coalition, Winston Peters of New Zealand First, is calling for the country’s September 19 election to be postponed to November 21, which has also elicited positive noises from the opposition National Party. It might well be thought an element of self-interest is at work here, with Peters wishing to put distance between the election and a donations scandal that has bedeviled his party, and National anticipating a short-term surge in government support amid the coronavirus crisis. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern may be softening in her opposition to the notion, saying earlier this week it would “depend on what alert level we are at”. There has regrettably been no polling of voting intention in New Zealand in two months, although the government recorded enormously encouraging results in a Colmar Brunton poll on handling of the pandemic in New Zealand and eight other countries, conducted last week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,986 comments on “Of plagues and houses”

Comments Page 1 of 40
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  1. Remember how Barnaby made such a fuss over Pistol and Boo being sneaked in under the nose of Border Force/Bio Security? Why hasn’t he entertained us with a tirade re Ruby Princess, which proved much more threatening ?

  2. A NY suburb after the ‘luck’ of the unfortunate name is now also copping crap from its namesake. Learnt one interesting thing from the article. I always thought “chockablock’ was Antipodean or UK slang but there it is used in the US of A’s NYT.
    .

    ——————————————————-
    A group of adjoining neighborhoods — Corona, Elmhurst, East Elmhurst and Jackson Heights — have emerged as the epicenter of New York’s raging outbreak.

    …………………The chockablock density that defines this part of Queens may have also have been its undoing. Doctors and community leaders say poverty, notoriously overcrowded homes and government inaction left residents especially vulnerable to the virus.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/nyregion/coronavirus-queens-corona-jackson-heights-elmhurst.html

  6. Morning all.

    I thought this was announced some weeks ago and was already in train?

    In one of the most far-ranging attempts to halt the spread of the virus, Apple and Google said they were building software into smartphones that would tell people if they were in recent contact with someone who was infected with the virus.

    The technology giants said they were teaming up to release the tool within several months, building it into the operating systems of the billions of iPhones and Android devices around the world. That would enable the smartphones to constantly log other devices they get close to through the short-range wireless technology Bluetooth, enabling what is known as “contact tracing” of the disease.

    With the tool, infected people would notify a public health app that they have the coronavirus, which would then alert phones that had recently come into proximity with that infected person’s device.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/us/coronavirus-updates-usa.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#link-20b9f453

  7. This also says a lot about the moronic Croatian’s mentality:

    The men, aged 40-50, and women, aged 23-25, were refused permission to enter France and ordered by police to fly back to the UK.

    Women. Half. Their. Age. Brought along for the ride and entertainment value no doubt.

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    The fight to stop the coronavirus will leave future generations a huge financial bill, and the government faces a number of choices to deal with it says Shane Wright.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/virus-fight-leaves-australia-with-a-mountain-of-debt-so-how-will-we-deal-with-it-20200408-p54i9j.html
    Australia’s coronavirus safety net must be tight to go the distance says George Megalogenis.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-s-coronavirus-safety-net-must-be-tight-to-go-the-distance-20200410-p54iux.html
    Nicholas Stuart opines that Labor may as well pack its bags and go home.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6714066/labor-may-as-well-pack-its-bags-and-go-home/?cs=14258
    The technology rivals Apple and Google have unveiled a rare partnership to add technology to their smartphone platforms that will alert users if they have come into contact with a person infected with COVID-19.
    https://www.smh.com.au/technology/apple-google-bring-coronavirus-contact-tracing-to-3-billion-people-20200411-p54izb.html
    Dana McCauley looks at Australia’s most dangerous job – intensive care nurses on the front line.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-s-most-dangerous-job-intensive-care-nurses-on-the-frontline-20200409-p54inj.html
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/q_86%2Cf_auto/fa5b69ec305581f2333a0474bd78746bd8766ce3Gyms, nightclubs and international travel should be among the last services to reopen in any rollback of Australia’s coronavirus lockdown restrictions, according to a public health expert advising the federal government.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/gyms-nightclubs-should-be-last-to-reopen-after-lockdown-expert-20200410-p54iww.html
    Against his instincts, Scott Morrison has set politics aside and led the states and territories in the successful mobilisation of the nation against the coronavirus. This crisis has given the PM the opportunity for redemption with a disenchanted people writes Peter Hartcher.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/triumph-of-unity-is-pm-s-resurrection-20200410-p54ixu.html
    Ross Gittins explains the behavioural side of the strategies that could be applied to the pandemic.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/some-major-contagions-have-nothing-to-do-with-you-know-what-20200408-p54i6g.html
    Colin Kruger examines the private health insurance situation and the windfall that has been handed them by the stopping of elective surgery.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/from-jaws-of-death-to-lifeline-private-health-insurers-unexpected-windfall-20200403-p54gpk.html
    Gladys Berejiklian has performed well in this crisis, with the one huge exception – the Ruby Princess says the SMH editorial.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/berejiklian-s-no-fuss-response-suits-this-health-crisis-20200410-p54ivz.html
    Karen Middleton writes that as a police probe begins into the Ruby Princess, details are emerging about other gaps in Australia’s quarantine response, including the use of isolation declaration cards.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2020/04/11/the-other-holes-australias-quarantine/15865272009668
    Paul Bongiorno looks at Morrison’s long road to recovery now that his “snap back” is off the table.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2020/04/11/long-road-recovery/15865272009675
    Peter van Onselen writes that with this pandemic, ideological constraints are out the window, where they belong.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/coronavirus-ideological-constraints-are-out-the-window-where-they-belong/news-story/88c4673ff4a7752b7b0ec329af6466cd
    Here two leading epidemiologists describe how a locked-down Australia might go about safely loosening the screws on the work, family and social lives of its citizens. It’s quite informative.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/covid-exit-strategy-generate-the-evidence-and-adjust-the-levers-as-we-go-20200409-p54iro.html
    Australia has not yet reached the Covid-19 peak, and experts say if we come out of isolation too early we risk a devastating second wave
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/11/the-covid-19-exit-strategy-when-will-australia-know-the-coronavirus-battle-is-over
    An ‘exit strategy’ means trading off public health, social cohesion and economic disaster. We need to decide with our hearts as well as our heads writes Lenore Taylor.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/11/australia-coronavirus-diabolical-decisions-choose-with-care
    Following on from a previous instalment John Lord wonders what will happen in the aftershock of the corona virus pandemic.
    https://theaimn.com/what-will-happen-in-the-aftershock-of-the-corona-virus-part-two/
    Tim Soutphommasane laments that COVID-19 is playing host to another contagion: anti-Asian racism.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/covid-19-is-playing-host-to-another-contagion-anti-asian-racism-20200409-p54irl.html
    Covid-19 should not be allowed to run free, but Australians are looking for a positive timetable says Malcolm Farr who thinks the nation’s patience will be tested on the other side.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/11/covid-19-should-not-be-allowed-to-run-free-but-australians-are-looking-for-a-positive-timetable
    In an illuminating contribution Matthew Knott tells us where America’s coronavirus response went wrong.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/this-is-how-america-s-coronavirus-response-went-wrong-20200409-p54ii6.html
    Paul Kelly has written a huge tome on the Pell decision and he puts the boot into the ABC.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/travesty-of-justice-trusted-institutions-fail-pell-public/news-story/04a4dabedeb056f5c6d83d37fed07f01
    While the High Court this week quashed the cardinal’s conviction for child sexual abuse, there remain several fronts on which the legal battle may continue writes Rick Morton.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/law-crime/2020/04/11/whats-next-george-pell/15865272009669
    A leading investment house has warned a third of Australian companies could cut dividends this year, with an extended shutdown likely to see that number rise.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/third-of-companies-could-cut-dividends-as-virus-decimates-profits-20200409-p54imo.html
    Until COVID-19, most retailers were scared to criticise their landlords for fear of retribution. But the tone-deaf messages by Westfield owner Scentre Group about trading through the pandemic will put the spotlight on shopping centre landlords like never before writes Adele Ferguson.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/premier-group-boss-is-still-waiting-for-a-call-from-the-landlords-20200409-p54ine.html
    International border closures could be part of Australia’s response to coronavirus after other restrictions are lifted, but decisions depend on a vaccine and worldwide conditions, deputy chief medical officer Paul Kelly says.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6719283/international-border-closures-could-be-long-term/?cs=14225
    A good Saturday column from Peter FitzSimons here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nine-s-blistering-broadside-on-the-nrl-raises-serious-questions-20200410-p54iwy.html
    With the changing face of our economy during the COVID-19 pandemic comes a new respect for the casual workforce, writes Dr Binoy Kampmark.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/praise-and-regret-for-the-casual-worker,13781
    Paddy Manning writes that as policymakers puzzle over how to wake up Australia’s economy from ‘hibernation’, the Greens believe the solution lies in massive renewable energy investment and a Green New Deal.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2020/04/11/the-greens-new-deal/15865272009676
    Gains of 10 per cent or more are common in bear markets – and the crisis at many of the world’s businesses is in its early stages writes Garry White.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/we-shouldn-t-read-too-much-into-sharemarkets-rallying-our-economic-crisis-has-just-begun-20200410-p54isu.html
    Mike Seccombe tells us that with the nation’s focus fixed on the fight against Covid-19, Energy Minister Angus Taylor has forged ahead with a new program that includes measures designed to prop up coal-fired electricity generators and weaken environmental protections.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2020/04/11/angus-taylors-energy-projects-push/15865272009679
    Kaye Lee has some questions about Hillsong, Alex Hawke, and the coronavirus.
    https://theaimn.com/questions-about-hillsong-alex-hawke-and-the-coronavirus/
    Australia’s federal government systems are vulnerable to cyber threats with progress lagging on key security areas. There’s also been a sharp rise in the number of cyber threats reported by commonwealth bodies, jumping to more than 50 per cent from a little over 10 per cent over a year.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6718906/govt-computer-systems-under-threat-online/?cs=14350
    Scott Morrison’s coronavirus marketing is working – just look at the polls says Paula Matthewson.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2020/04/10/paula-matthewson-morrison-polls/
    Killian Plastow explains why investors are rushing back into the markets despite the coronavirus crisis.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/markets-and-shares/2020/04/10/coronavirus-stock-markets/
    Kevin Rudd warns that as this crisis continues, we ignore the foreign policy implications at our peril and to the peril of our region.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2020/04/11/australia-must-fulfil-its-regional-obligations/15865272009674
    The romance and luxury associated with cruise ships hides a darker history that is surfacing now with the Ruby Princess debacle, writes Dr Lee Duffield.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/popularity-of-the-cruise-ship-industry-is-sinking,13780
    Young artists have been disadvantaged by continued cuts in arts funding, with the majority of money going to ‘high-brow’ institutions such as opera, ballet, orchestra which are frequented by older audiences Angad Roy reports on state, Federal and local state-of-play for an arts scene now suddenly devastated by the coronavirus.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/boomers-vs-millennials-arts-funding-dropped-hits-young-artists-over-high-brow-establishment/
    As people in Australia and around the world watch life as we have known it crumble and are told to keep apart from each other to stop the virus spreading, refugees and asylum seekers detained in centres around our country face a new threat. And they are not able to comply with the new directives.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6713001/are-we-really-all-in-this-together-australias-covid-19-blind-spot/?cs=14258
    Wisconsin proves it: Republicans will sacrifice voters’ health to keep power writes David Daley.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/10/wisconsin-primary-coronavirus-republican-voting-by-mail
    Chef Pete Evans earns the quinella of nominations for “Arsehole of the Week” and “Idiot of the Week”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/chef-pete-evans-criticised-for-trying-to-sell-15000-light-device-to-fight-coronavirus
    Cartoon Corner

    Andrew Dyson

    John Shakespeare


    Alan Moir


    Matt Golding




    Jim Pavlidis


    Matt Davidson

    Peter Broelman

    Jon Kudelka

    Johannes Leak
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/c74cd9ecb11bfac1e0d53e07be4966fe?width=1024

    From the US




  9. Guess what? They were in Finance and Property Development and they had ‘connections’:

    Once the Embraer Legacy jet had landed at Marseille-Provence, the group, made up of several nationalities including Croatian, German, French, Romanian and Ukrainian, reportedly tried to get help from contacts to continue their journey.

    “They tried to make use of their connections and made a few phone calls,” the source said.

    Hopefully incidents like this make the scales fall from people’s eyes about how the world was working and hopefully doesn’t go back to.

  10. C@tmomma

    I had a look to see where Hell’s Kitchen is in NY .Saw a couple of names of nearby localities on the map which were a bit of a lol given they are in the heart of an ubermetropolis- “Strawberry Fields” and “Sheep Meadow”.

  12. poroti @ #10 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 7:04 am

    C@tmomma

    I had a look to see where Hell’s Kitchen is in NY .Saw a couple of names of nearby localities on the map which were a bit of a lol given they are in the heart of an ubermetropolis- “Strawberry Fields” and “Sheep Meadow”.

    America-turning swamps into real estate gold, since forever. 🙂

  14. Spare a thought for Iran. A government that responded way too late, esp in raising awareness among the public, and a hospital system that cannot cope.

    Nearly 70,000 Iranians have tested positive for the virus and more than 4,000 people have died, including some of Iran’s most prominent officials, according to the government health ministry. The human toll has gone largely unremarked upon in western countries absorbed by the wave of deaths in places like Italy, Spain and the United States.

    The medical records, from 56 hospitals in Tehran, include detailed information about thousands of coronavirus-related cases between late February, when Iran reported its first infection, and mid-March. The hospitals — which represent about a quarter of the approximately 200 medical facilities in the city admitting virus-related cases — tested at least 5,500 patients in that period. Just under half tested positive, while many more tests appeared to be pending.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/10/rare-voices-irans-epic-coronavirus-outbreak-tell-stumbling-government-deluged-hospitals/?arc404=true

  15. This is a wow! moment. The Chief Economist of KPMG, agrees with Sally McManus:

    KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne argues that it will take generations of Australians to pay for the emergency actions now in place. He says that before analysts and politicians start throwing around ideas, there must be an agreed starting principle. “The whole country has benefited directly and indirectly from the state and federal stimulus packages, and the only way we are going to pay this back is that everyone contributes,” he says. “The thing we know from tax reform or other major reforms is that it’s really, really difficult. Even before you start there are vested interests trying to protect their patch.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/virus-fight-leaves-australia-with-a-mountain-of-debt-so-how-will-we-deal-with-it-20200408-p54i9j.html

  16. Shane Wright always draws the threads together really well:

    But University of Western Australia macro-economist Jakob Madsen says this time there will be no escape from tough decisions. “Debt has to be reduced the hard way; particularly because GDP growth is likely to be very low over the next decade,” he says. “Furthermore, I expect interest rates to increase significantly in the years to come because the ageing population and the massive government debt that will build up around the globe will push interest rates up.”

    Madsen says federal and state governments will have to look at higher taxes, noting a GST increase, higher petrol taxes, re-introduction of an inheritance tax, elimination of stamp duties and a revamp of mining taxation should all be on the agenda.

    The Abbott government set a precedent for increasing taxes in 2014 when it put in place its budget repair levy, a 2 per cent impost on people earning more than $180,000 a year.

    George Gear was a minister in Paul Keating’s government, serving as assistant treasurer between 1993 and 1996. Gear, now the mayor of the Perth council area of Melville, says the government needs to treat public money as if it was spending its own cash.

    That requires a big change to the “coasting” that governments of both persuasions had pursued over the past eight years to pay down the nation’s overall debt. “The government of good or no tough decisions that offend anyone will have to change. The question is are they up to it? Can they make unpopular decisions ? The debt crisis will force them to. It has to happen,” he says.

    It is also the case that I don’t think Labor should ‘just pack their bags and go home’. I think that Labor should dog the government every step of the way through this process, and hopefully, at some stage, become the government that reorganises the nation to benefit all its citizens equitably.

  18. Hartcher writes

    The Prime Minister’s political resurrection is at hand.

    as if Morrison has become more inclusive and compassionate and we appreciate him for it.

    Well, not me. He still allows Cash and Cormann to “draw a line”. He’s still Scotty from Marketing.

  19. Thanks again BK for the Dawn Patrol. Quite a lot to get through there.

    Why does the following not surprise me ❓

    Mike Seccombe tells us that with the nation’s focus fixed on the fight against Covid-19, Energy Minister Angus Taylor has forged ahead with a new program that includes measures designed to prop up coal-fired electricity generators and weaken environmental protections.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2020/04/11/angus-taylors-energy-projects-push/15865272009679

  20. George Gear was a minister in Paul Keating’s government, serving as assistant treasurer between 1993 and 1996. Gear, now the mayor of the Perth council area of Melville, says the government needs to treat public money as if it was spending its own cash.

    The problem with this is that Liberals are adept at profligacy with public funds. Regardless of whether they are state or federal, Liberal governments always indulge in wasteful spending.

  21. Lizzie

    I posted this last evening. A really useful program to post pictures (and captures) from your computer.

    Vastly simpler to post images from one’s computer is to install the little program available from —

    https://postimages.org/app

    Which enables various features – chief for me is the taskbar icon which when clicked shows —

    Upon uploading one is presented with the Direct Link to post into the Comment box.

  23. Trump rambles about ‘genius’ coronavirus during long-winded briefing: ‘The germ has gotten so brilliant’

    The leader of the free world rambled about his “brilliant enemy” during a coronavirus briefing that lasted two hours and sixteen minutes.

    Allies of the White House had been quoted in the press urging President Donald Trump to keep his remarks short, but that advice has apparently been ignored.

    “No, one of the biggest problems the world has is the germ has gotten so brilliant that the antibiotic can’t keep up with it, they’re constantly trying to come up with

    Dr. Dena Grayson‏Verified account @DrDenaGrayson

    IDIOT: @realDonaldTrump: “Antibiotics used to solve every problem & now one of the biggest problems the world has is the germ has gotten too brilliant that the anti-antibiotic can’t keep up with it.”

    Antivirals—NOT antibiotics—treat viruses.

  25. From the Dawn Patrol article re Alex Hawke. In the Pentecostal world it looks like it was Jesus who should have been turfed out of the temple by the money changers and the merchants .

    Far too many of this brand of loons with hands on government levers for my liking.,Scrott,Hawke,Robert etc.

    (Hawke) “The two greatest forces for good in human history are capitalism and Christianity, and when they’re blended it’s a very powerful duo.”

  27. The leader of the free world rambled about his “brilliant enemy” during a coronavirus briefing that lasted two hours and sixteen minutes.

    I’m just hoping that come November voters just want an end to the chaos and the drama and will vote Democrat. Perhaps the best campaign slogan Biden could have is ‘do you really want 4 more years of THAT?’.

  29. poroti @ #10 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 7:04 am

    C@tmomma

    I had a look to see where Hell’s Kitchen is in NY .Saw a couple of names of nearby localities on the map which were a bit of a lol given they are in the heart of an ubermetropolis- “Strawberry Fields” and “Sheep Meadow”.

    They’re part of Central Park. Strawberry Fields, opposite the Dakota Building, is where you will the John Lennon memorial. Sheep Meadow is a wonderful picnic spot.

  32. Daniel Dale@ddale8
    ·
    2h
    Trump says it’s true that opening up could lead to death, but: “Staying at home leads to death also. And it’s very traumatic for this country. Staying at home, if you look at numbers, that leads to a different kind of death, perhaps, but it leads to death also.”

    Death by Netflix?

  33. C@tmomma @ #16 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 7:30 am

    Shane Wright always draws the threads together really well:

    But University of Western Australia macro-economist Jakob Madsen says this time there will be no escape from tough decisions. “Debt has to be reduced the hard way; particularly because GDP growth is likely to be very low over the next decade,” he says. “Furthermore, I expect interest rates to increase significantly in the years to come because the ageing population and the massive government debt that will build up around the globe will push interest rates up.”

    Madsen says federal and state governments will have to look at higher taxes, noting a GST increase, higher petrol taxes, re-introduction of an inheritance tax, elimination of stamp duties and a revamp of mining taxation should all be on the agenda.

    The Abbott government set a precedent for increasing taxes in 2014 when it put in place its budget repair levy, a 2 per cent impost on people earning more than $180,000 a year.

    George Gear was a minister in Paul Keating’s government, serving as assistant treasurer between 1993 and 1996. Gear, now the mayor of the Perth council area of Melville, says the government needs to treat public money as if it was spending its own cash.

    That requires a big change to the “coasting” that governments of both persuasions had pursued over the past eight years to pay down the nation’s overall debt. “The government of good or no tough decisions that offend anyone will have to change. The question is are they up to it? Can they make unpopular decisions ? The debt crisis will force them to. It has to happen,” he says.

    It is also the case that I don’t think Labor should ‘just pack their bags and go home’. I think that Labor should dog the government every step of the way through this process, and hopefully, at some stage, become the government that reorganises the nation to benefit all its citizens equitably.

    It was a stupid fatuous headline. Labor will be more critical than ever. The thought of an ideologically restored Morrison riding a poll boost scares me.

  37. poroti @ #25 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 8:00 am

    From the Dawn Patrol article re Alex Hawke. In the Pentecostal world it looks like it was Jesus who should have been turfed out of the temple by the money changers and the merchants .

    Far too many of this brand of loons with hands on government levers for my liking.,Scrott,Hawke,Robert etc.

    (Hawke) “The two greatest forces for good in human history are capitalism and Christianity, and when they’re blended it’s a very powerful duo.”

    They got Him eventually. Dead at 33.

  40. Confessions @ #35 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 8:19 am

    ItzaDream @ #30 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 6:13 am

    Confessions @ #11 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 7:06 am

    Thanks BK. Mega George must be writing a regular weekend column for the SMH now.

    And Malcolm Farr is a now a regular for the Guardian.

    Thanks Itza. I never read Farr’s columns, only experiencing his views when he was on Insiders.

    Same. Daily Toiletcrap, nah. I’ve always enjoyed his blokey cut through and directness on Insiders.

  42. poroti
    From what I’ve seen of Corona Queens it isn’t an upmarket suburb but i wouldn’t say its a high density area and like many suburbs there does seem to be differences between streets. Its kind of on the edge of New York before the demographics start to change as you go out towards the Hamptons which is some distance to the east of it.

  44. Good morning faithful Poll Bludgers arise and take your medicine – direct from “The Australian”

    and

    More ❓ You say you want more –

    Somewhere (over the rainbow) in that there lot above is hidden a little classical Orstrayan poetry.

    There were some gilded youths that sat along the barber’s wall.
    Their eyes were dull, their heads were flat, they had no brains at all;
    To them the barber passed the wink, his dexter eyelid shut,
    “I’ll make this bloomin’ yokel think his bloomin’ throat is cut.”
    And as he soaped and rubbed it in he made a rude remark:
    “I s’pose the flats is pretty green up there in Ironbark.”

    I have just patrolled the KayJay kingdom, clipped some shrubbery, said “Good Morning” to a solitary lady walking her little dog, listened to a chuckling crew of Kookaburra and contemplated a universe devoid of humanity – I guess I will have to vote LNP from now on. Is there no return for us from the “Phantom Zone” ❓

    Please – help me Rhonda.

    P.S. The astute observer will have noticed the glaring error contained in “millions of years” which should obviously read since Saturday, October 22, 4004 BC, at 6 pm.

    Coffee for two Muriel. My treat ☕☕

  46. Mexicanbeemer @ #42 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 8:29 am

    poroti
    From what I’ve seen of Corona Queens it isn’t an upmarket suburb but i wouldn’t say its a high density area and like many suburbs there does seem to be differences between streets. Its kind of on the edge of New York before the demographics start to change as you go out towards the Hamptons which is some distance to the east of it.

    And to Long Island. It’s what you drive through from JFK into Manhattan. Pretty shabby. Flushing Meadows is where the US Open is.

  47. KayJay

    Thank you for a peep into the strange world of the Oz. It’s always educational.
    A comment on Pell: he was raised in a world when “rape” and “abuse” meant different things to what they do now, which I think is at the basis of his belief that he is innocent of all accusations.

  48. ItzaDream
    Its thanks to the US Open that I kind of know the area. Its very much suburbia and every major city has less well off areas but when you think of the amount of wealth in New York those areas are kind of depressing.

  49. ItzaDream @ #46 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 6:32 am

    Mexicanbeemer @ #42 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 8:29 am

    poroti
    From what I’ve seen of Corona Queens it isn’t an upmarket suburb but i wouldn’t say its a high density area and like many suburbs there does seem to be differences between streets. Its kind of on the edge of New York before the demographics start to change as you go out towards the Hamptons which is some distance to the east of it.

    And to Long Island. It’s what you drive through from JFK into Manhattan. Pretty shabby. Flushing Meadows is where the US Open is.

    Flushing Meadows;

    Is that where the early locals went to the loo? 🙂

  50. lizzie @ #47 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 6:42 am

    KayJay

    Thank you for a peep into the strange world of the Oz. It’s always educational.
    A comment on Pell: he was raised in a world when “rape” and “abuse” meant different things to what they do now, which I think is at the basis of his belief that he is innocent of all accusations.

    As with much of Pell’s World view, it seems firmly entrenched in the past.

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