Of plagues and houses

Results finalised on Queensland’s two status quo state by-election results, and COVID-19 question marks over looming elections in New Zealand, the Northern Territory and for two Tasmanian upper house seats.

Counting has concluded for the Currumbin and Bundamba by-elections of a fortnight ago, with Laura Gerber retaining Currumbin for the Liberal National Party by a 1.5% margin against a 1.8% swing to Labor, and Lance McCallum retaining Bundamba for Labor by a 9.6% margin ahead of second-placed One Nation (UPDATE: Make that a 1.2% margin in Currumbin and 9.8% in Bundamba). As noted previously, the flow of Greens preferences to Labor in Currumbin was relatively weak, though not quite decisively so. Deep within the innards of the ECQ’s media feed, it says that Greens preferences were going 1738 to Labor (72.8%) and 651 (27.2%), though this can’t be based on the final figures since the Greens received 2527 rather than 2389 votes. Had Labor received 79.17% of Greens preferences, as they did in the corresponding federal seat of McPherson last May, the margin would have been pared back from 567 (1.5%) to 215 (0.5%).

I have three tables to illustrate the results in light of the highly unusual circumstances of the election, the first of which updates one that appeared in an early post, recording the extent to which voters in the two seats changed their behaviour with respect to how they voted. Election day voting obviously fell dramatically, as voters switched to pre-poll voting and, to only a slightly lesser extent, outright abstention. What was not seen was a dramatic increase in postal voting, which will require investigation given the considerable anecdotal evidence that many who applied for postal votes did not receive their ballots on time — an even more contentious matter in relation to the mess that unfolded in Wisconsin on Tuesday, on which I may have more to say at a later time.

The next two tables divide the votes into four types, polling places, early voting, postal and others, and record the parties’ vote shares and swings compared with 2017, the latter shown in italics. In both Currumbin and Bundamba, Labor achieved their weakest results in swing terms on polling day votes, suggesting Labor voters made the move from election day to pre-poll voting in particularly large numbers, cancelling out what had previously been an advantage to the LNP in pre-poll voting. This is matched by a particularly strong swing against the LNP on pre-polls in Currumbin, but the effect is not discernible in Bundamba, probably because the picture was confused by the party running third and a chunk of its vote being lost to One Nation, who did not contest last time.

In other COVID-19 disruption news:

• The Northern Territory government has rejected calls from what is now the territory’s official opposition, Terry Mills’ Territory Alliance party (UPDATE: Turns out I misheard here – the Country Liberal Party remains the opposition, as Bird of Paradox notes in comments), to postpone the August 22 election. Of the practicalities involved in holding the election under a regime of social distancing rules, which the government insists will be in place for at least six months, Deputy Chief Minister Nicole Manison offers only that “the Electoral Commission is looking at the very important questions of how we make sure that in the environment of COVID-19 that we do this safely”.

• After an initial postponement from May 2 to May 30, the Tasmanian government has further deferred the periodic elections for the Legislative Council seats of Huon and Rosevear, promising only that they will be held by the time the chamber sits on August 25. Three MLCs have written to the Premier requesting that the elections either be held by post or for the terms of the existing members, which will otherwise expire, to be extended through to revised polling date.

• The junior partner in New Zealand’s ruling coalition, Winston Peters of New Zealand First, is calling for the country’s September 19 election to be postponed to November 21, which has also elicited positive noises from the opposition National Party. It might well be thought an element of self-interest is at work here, with Peters wishing to put distance between the election and a donations scandal that has bedeviled his party, and National anticipating a short-term surge in government support amid the coronavirus crisis. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern may be softening in her opposition to the notion, saying earlier this week it would “depend on what alert level we are at”. There has regrettably been no polling of voting intention in New Zealand in two months, although the government recorded enormously encouraging results in a Colmar Brunton poll on handling of the pandemic in New Zealand and eight other countries, conducted last week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,986 comments on “Of plagues and houses”

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  2. “The taskforce will provide recommendations to both state and federal governments, “finding a reasonable balance between maximising the safety of populations, the protection of the economy, and the well-being of society”, according to the University of Melbourne’s website.”

    Fuck. Fuck. Fuck. Fools

    Put your efforts into reporting on how to get rid of the fucking thing. Then we can reopen totally.

  3. Not all plain sailing but

    Oil Companies Are Collapsing, but Wind and Solar Energy Keep Growing
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/business/energy-environment/coronavirus-oil-wind-solar-energy.html

    The renewable-energy business is expected to keep growing, though more slowly, in contrast to fossil fuel companies, which have been hammered by low oil and gas prices.

    A few years ago, the kind of double-digit drop in oil and gas prices the world is experiencing now because of the coronavirus pandemic might have increased the use of fossil fuels and hurt renewable energy sources like wind and solar farms.

    That is not happening.

    In fact, renewable energy sources are set to account for nearly 21 percent of the electricity the United States uses for the first time this year, up from about 18 percent last year and 10 percent in 2010, according to one forecast published last week. And while work on some solar and wind projects has been delayed by the outbreak, industry executives and analysts expect the renewable business to continue growing in 2020 and next year even as oil, gas and coal companies struggle financially or seek bankruptcy protection.

    —

    The solar industry expected to add more panels in 2020 than in any other previous year, said Abigail Hopper, president of the Solar Energy Industries Association. That won’t happen now, but the industry is still poised to add capacity.

    “We believe, over the long run, we are well positioned to outcompete incumbent generators,” Ms. Hopper said.

    While in Europe

    EU says green finance will be ‘key focus’ of post-virus recovery phase
    https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/eu-says-green-finance-will-be-key-focus-of-post-virus-recovery-phase/

    And while all attention rightly focuses on the pandemic, the long-term climate and environmental objectives of the European Union remain as relevant today as they were before the crisis, the EU executive says.

    “The ongoing coronavirus outbreak highlights the critical need to strengthen the sustainability and resilience of our economies in the future,” the Commission stated.

    At a summit on 26 March, EU leaders asked the EU executive to start preparing “a comprehensive recovery plan” that also integrates the green and digital transitions.

    EU climate chief Frans Timmermans has since pledged to “work towards a green recovery”, citing clean energy sources as having a crucial role to play in the transition.

  4. Just back to the NRL for a moment. We reported earlier that Peter V’landys, the ARLC chair, said the sport had been given the go-ahead by government to resume matches next month.

    That doesn’t seem to accord with the messaging of the NSW government, which says the NRL must discuss its proposal with health authorities before kicking off again.

    The health minister, Brad Hazzard, said on Saturday the matter was an issue for NSW Health, and not for politicians.

    “It’s a ‘have a discussion with health authorities to see if it can be done safely’ [scenario],” Hazzard said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/11/australia-coronavirus-update-live-nsw-victoria-qld-quarantine-covid-19-latest-news

    Geez, what a useless cowardly waste of space that minister is.

  5. Cud, mass testing is meaningless if the virus can lay dormant and re-activate and the persons become ill and start shedding again.

  6. The NT is probably not going to be under lockdown and social distancing by August and the election should be fairly normal. The number of cases is just too low in the NT to sustain an outbreak if everything goes right.
    However, the borders might not be opened, and that is likely to help the opposition. Labor won’t be able to bring in people from outside the Territory to help which the Territory Alliance doesn’t have.

  7. ‘Quoll says:
    Saturday, April 11, 2020 at 3:37 pm

    Not all plain sailing but

    Oil Companies Are Collapsing, but Wind and Solar Energy Keep Growing
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/business/energy-environment/coronavirus-oil-wind-solar-energy.html

    The renewable-energy business is expected to keep growing, though more slowly, in contrast to fossil fuel companies, which have been hammered by low oil and gas prices.’

    Solar energy construction in Australia has contracted during the Virus.

  8. Is it realistically possible to eradicate the virus without a vaccine? If not, can we start to open up shops and services while maintaining social distancing, etc, while keeping number of infected at low levels?

  9. poroti (from this morning)

    Cud Chewer’s new fave country ?
    .
    Iceland’s ‘Test Everyone’ Goal Has Skeptics, but It May Be Working
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/world/europe/coronavirus-testing-iceland.html?algo=clicks_decay_6&fellback=true&imp_id=997204707&action=click&module=moreIn&pgtype=Article&region=Footer

    If you read the article you’ll discover Iceland hasn’t been doing nearly as well as Australia in terms of social isolation and other measures. Nevertheless, their cases are dwindling. So yes higher rates of testing does work. (Having said this, if you read the article, their higher levels of testing are a long way short of “test everyone”)

    https://coronavirusgraphs.com/?c=cd&y=linear&t=bar&f=0&ct=&co=108

    If we in Australia pursued mass testing (as opposed to blanket testing) – meaning we actually pursue the virus into the community, which for example might mean blanket testing of school kids, then on top of the strict isolation measures we do have, we are pretty much guaranteed to see the virus eliminated here.

  10. MPs look to set limits on pandemic powers of Premier’s ‘gang of eight’

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/mps-look-to-set-limits-on-pandemic-powers-of-premier-s-gang-of-eight-20200410-p54ix4.html

    Victoria’s opposition and crossbench politicians are demanding to be allowed back into the state’s political process, saying the Andrews government is limiting personal freedoms in the COVID-19 crisis without democratic scrutiny.

    Police have extraordinary powers to stop, fine and even detain Victorians while enforcing the shutdown regime, but State Parliament, the major check on the government, was sent home last month and it is unclear when it will return.

    Government decision-making on the crisis is in the hands of a group of just eight senior ministers including the Premier with much of the regular cabinet sidelined and Labor backbenchers even further removed from the centre of power.

    The Liberal-National Opposition, Greens, minor parties and independents have in effect been left without a role.
    :::
    In a rare show of unity this week, nine of the 11 crossbench MPs in the upper house made a joint call for oversight, in the form of a multi-party committee, on the powers the government is wielding over Victorians’ civil liberties.

    The Andrews government was unable to say this week what form of oversight it might agree to or even when Parliament might be recalled.
    :::
    “Significant infringements on the civil liberties of all Victorians are occurring without the proper scrutiny of non-government members of the Parliament and that’s just not acceptable,” Ms Patten said.

  11. ‘Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, April 11, 2020 at 3:32 pm

    Boerwar @ #248 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 3:28 pm

    GG
    Melbourne used to be good to live in. It still is, if you enjoy parking on freeways.

    Any inner-urb with half a brain uses PT.’

    Got yourself there, Half Brain Rexy!

  12. NE Qld @ #258 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 3:48 pm

    Is it realistically possible to eradicate the virus without a vaccine? If not, can we start to open up shops and services while maintaining social distancing, etc, while keeping number of infected at low levels?

    This is very problematic. It seems characteristic of this virus that it spreads “under the radar” via infection “clusters”. If it remains true to form, then by the time random testing detects any significant upswing in cases, we may already be too late to contain it 🙁

  15. “Cud, mass testing is meaningless if the virus can lay dormant and re-activate and the persons become ill and start shedding again.”

    On the contrary PeeBee, if we don’t know who is positive, then we don’t know who is at risk of re-activation. In fact having such behaviour from the virus pretty much mandates continued high levels of testing.

    In any case, there are questions about re-activation. From what I can tell, they’re re-testing patients not long after they were first recorded as negative. There is some possibility we are actually seeing residual viral RNA (dead bugs). Its also possible that genuine re-activation does happen but isn’t common (again, test, test test, test and test). Its also possible that if and when it does occur, that such people aren’t particularly infectious. We just don’t know.

    However, the point of us doing mass testing is avoid having a second wave of the virus. The fewer people that get infected, the fewer that need future re-testing and monitoring, right? Well, what we don’t need is to sit back and do nothing, not mass test, relax restrictions and then see the virus re-surge. If this re-activation thing is a problem, its all the more reason to attempt elimination now.

  16. Boerwar @ #261 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 3:50 pm

    ‘Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, April 11, 2020 at 3:32 pm

    Boerwar @ #248 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 3:28 pm

    GG
    Melbourne used to be good to live in. It still is, if you enjoy parking on freeways.

    Any inner-urb with half a brain uses PT.’

    Got yourself there, Half Brain Rexy!

    You sound in a good mood. How many wombats did you enjoy blasting this morning ..?

  17. BW,

    We have a road system that takes you somewhere, a tram system that actually works and a train system that is the envy of anyone that does not live here permanently.

    From where I am at beautiful downtown Greensy I have a rail line that delivers me to the city within 35 minutes and there are 3 different bus services serving me within 500 m. Of course, I could wander over to Greensy and have further options available. There is a tram about 4 k away if anything goes untoward.

    So, enjoy your tent!

  18. On the subject of the NT: is the Territory Alliance actually the opposition there? They have three members to the CLP’s two, thanks to Collins and Lambley, but last I heard there was a vote in the NT parliament (which Labor mostly abstained from) on which party is recognised as the opposition, and the CLP won that 5-3. Apparently it’s not automatic. More on this from Kevin Bonham:

    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2020/03/king-of-nothing-for-day-did-terry-mills.html

    Once upon a time just before the Qld Libs merged with the Nats, one of their leadership arguments got described as “two bald men fighting over a comb”. This is pretty similar.

  19. B.S. Fairman @ #256 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 3:44 pm

    Labor won’t be able to bring in people from outside the Territory to help which the Territory Alliance doesn’t have.

    I don’t follow. Labor sets the border policies for the NT, including if/when the border reopens and who’s eligible for an exception and why. If they want to bring in external help, they can (albeit with the risk of getting called out for it if they’re caught granting exceptions based on political alignment).

    Although if neighboring states are still all keeping their borders closed, that may discourage anyone from volunteering to help. Sure they’d get into NT okay, but after the election might find themselves stuck there with no other state willing to let them back in.

    NE Qld @ #258 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 3:48 pm

    Is it realistically possible to eradicate the virus without a vaccine?

    No idea. Though I feel like if it was we’d have done so with irritating, similarly contagious, but generally less lethal viruses like the common cold and seasonal flu. Those things persist and we tolerate them, partly because they’re too good at spreading for us to eradicate them (and also because it’s actually a lot of different viruses that cause the cold/flu).

  20. Pegasus

    I have a lot of respect for contact tracers. However, its an imperfect activity. I pity the contact tracers now trying to figure out who infected Gosford hospital. I suspect that that is near impossible.

  23. South Australia has recorded one further coronavirus infection since yesterday, lifting its total of cases to 429.

    SA Health says more than half of those have recovered so far.

    There are 15 people being treated in hospital including seven in intensive care.

  28. Antony Green on twitter: https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenABC/status/1248576955177250817

    The impact of Covid-19 on the #BrisbaneVotes election can be seen in the table of votes by type below. Polling day votes slumped from 66.0% to 26.5%, pre-polls and postals doubled, telephone votes up from 151 to 8,428. Pre-polls counted as Absents also leapt.

    ———-
    Pre-poll voting is much more reliable. With pre-polls your vote will be counted. If something goes wrong with the post, or if you make an error with the envelope, your vote doesn’t get counted. Postal voting will disappear within a decade.

  29. When the ACT is free of the virus they can put up roadblocks and have compulsory quarantine? 🙂

    (Not entirely joking.. this would help to get the media talking about elimination)

  31. Hillbilly

    We don’t eradicate viruses – we learn to live with them.

    Influenza A H1N1 caused the Spanish Flu pandemic, the swine flu pandemic in 2009 and seems to reappear every year:

    The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic: A New Flu Virus Emerges

    From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalisations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

    Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated

    However, (H1N1)pdm09 virus continues to circulate as a seasonal flu virus, and cause illness, hospitalisation, and deaths worldwide every year.

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

  33. ‘Cud Chewer says:
    Saturday, April 11, 2020 at 4:07 pm

    When the ACT is free of the virus they can put up roadblocks and have compulsory quarantine?

    (Not entirely joking.. this would help to get the media talking about elimination)’

    Barr has already signalled that he will not be doing that. One difficulty is that significant numbers of peeps live on the wrong side of the border and work in the ACT. The leakage would be impossible to eliminate, IMO.

  34. I am just finding it hard to imagine what our endgame is? QLD is only reporting around 10 cases per day now which I think is pretty good and reasonably safe to venture out. If the numbers won’t be zero when can we relax restrictions. Would be nice for the Government to explain what criteria for relaxing of restrictions.

  40. In the subject of the NT: is the Territory Alliance actually the opposition there? They have three members to the CLP’s two, thanks to Collins and Lambley, but last I heard there was a vote in the NT parliament (which Labor mostly abstained from) on which party is recognised as the opposition, and the CLP won that 5-3. Apparently it’s not automatic.

    Mea culpa — I thought I recalled hearing this was a thing, but apparently not.

  43. Player One+Cud Chewer

    I heard some medico describe the difference between mitigation and elimination policies well. Mitigation is clamping down progressively harder as the infection proceeds and elimination is clamping down hard and then easing off as the thing progresses. Using my full lack of expertise I would prefer the second option 🙂

  44. Re Tasmania – The Guardian

    Tasmanian premier

    “He says there is an outbreak on Tasmania’s north-west coast. The state is particularly vulnerable to Covid-19, due to its demographics.

    We have a vulnerable community, an older community, a community that has in certain parts of its population more examples of underlying health challenges and other difficulties that people face.”

    ——————————————
    The outbreak on Tasmania’s north-west coast, Gutwein says, has occurred in health facilities, including the Northwest regional hospital and Northwest private hospital.

    Gutwein says the state will “ring-fence” the area to take control of the outbreak. Operational control has now been taken from Northwest private hospital and will be managed by a dedicated outbreak management team.
    :::
    The Tasmanian government has announced new quarantine measures for those who have worked in, or been treated at, the hospitals. Some healthcare workers have already been asked to quarantine. Now their households will also be asked to quarantine at home.

    Any patient who has been discharged from 27 March has been asked to self-quarantine at their homes.

  45. poroti @ #293 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 4:15 pm

    Player One+Cud Chewer

    I heard some medico describe the difference between mitigation and elimination policies well. Mitigation is clamping down progressively harder as the infection proceeds and elimination is clamping down hard and then easing off as the thing progresses. Using my full lack of expertise I would prefer the second option 🙂

    I think that sums it up pretty well. We went for “mitigation”, whereas NZ went for “elimination”.

    Time will tell which one was the better approach.

  46. The change in NT opposition was reported late March 2020.
    ——————–

    NT opposition status switches back to Country Liberal Party from Territory Alliance in surprise vote

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/country-liberal-party-reclaims-nt-opposition-status/12087114

    On Tuesday night CLP leader Lia Finocchiaro put forward the motion to decide which party would form the opposition, catching Territory Alliance, the Labor Government and the Speaker of the Northern Territory Parliament on the hop.

    “I move that this assembly agrees that the party or group that is the official opposition remains unclear, declares therefore that the office of the Leader of the Opposition is vacant, conducts a ballot pursuant to chapter 21 of the standing orders to fill this vacancy,” she began, rapidly outlining a secret ballot to be conducted immediately.

    Labor’s Attorney-General Natasha Fyles agreed to hold the vote and indicated Labor would not take part.

    The CLP then won the secret ballot five votes to three, undoing a week’s worth of arrangements made by Territory Alliance’s three members to move into new parliamentary offices, take up new shadow portfolios, and play a leading role in Question Time.
    :::
    The Country Liberals also named two new candidates to run for Darwin seats in the August election, which Chief Minister Michael Gunner said on Wednesday would still go ahead.

  47. poroti

    That doesn’t make it clear. Elimination is reducing the virus to zero within a country. That’s a pretty clear definition even if there are issues of provability. Mitigation clearly isn’t elimination.

    Besides what I find weird is not that people are saying that elimination is difficult, rather that people (including a lot of people who should know better including certain experts) are dismissing it out of hand. It should be what we are attempting to do regardless. Having the stated aim of elimination focuses attention on the best means to do so. In Australia’s case that means a lot more testing.

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