Counting has concluded for the Currumbin and Bundamba by-elections of a fortnight ago, with Laura Gerber retaining Currumbin for the Liberal National Party by a 1.5% margin against a 1.8% swing to Labor, and Lance McCallum retaining Bundamba for Labor by a 9.6% margin ahead of second-placed One Nation (UPDATE: Make that a 1.2% margin in Currumbin and 9.8% in Bundamba). As noted previously, the flow of Greens preferences to Labor in Currumbin was relatively weak, though not quite decisively so. Deep within the innards of the ECQ’s media feed, it says that Greens preferences were going 1738 to Labor (72.8%) and 651 (27.2%), though this can’t be based on the final figures since the Greens received 2527 rather than 2389 votes. Had Labor received 79.17% of Greens preferences, as they did in the corresponding federal seat of McPherson last May, the margin would have been pared back from 567 (1.5%) to 215 (0.5%).
I have three tables to illustrate the results in light of the highly unusual circumstances of the election, the first of which updates one that appeared in an early post, recording the extent to which voters in the two seats changed their behaviour with respect to how they voted. Election day voting obviously fell dramatically, as voters switched to pre-poll voting and, to only a slightly lesser extent, outright abstention. What was not seen was a dramatic increase in postal voting, which will require investigation given the considerable anecdotal evidence that many who applied for postal votes did not receive their ballots on time — an even more contentious matter in relation to the mess that unfolded in Wisconsin on Tuesday, on which I may have more to say at a later time.
The next two tables divide the votes into four types, polling places, early voting, postal and others, and record the parties’ vote shares and swings compared with 2017, the latter shown in italics. In both Currumbin and Bundamba, Labor achieved their weakest results in swing terms on polling day votes, suggesting Labor voters made the move from election day to pre-poll voting in particularly large numbers, cancelling out what had previously been an advantage to the LNP in pre-poll voting. This is matched by a particularly strong swing against the LNP on pre-polls in Currumbin, but the effect is not discernible in Bundamba, probably because the picture was confused by the party running third and a chunk of its vote being lost to One Nation, who did not contest last time.
In other COVID-19 disruption news:
• The Northern Territory government has rejected calls from what is now the territory’s official opposition, Terry Mills’ Territory Alliance party (UPDATE: Turns out I misheard here – the Country Liberal Party remains the opposition, as Bird of Paradox notes in comments), to postpone the August 22 election. Of the practicalities involved in holding the election under a regime of social distancing rules, which the government insists will be in place for at least six months, Deputy Chief Minister Nicole Manison offers only that “the Electoral Commission is looking at the very important questions of how we make sure that in the environment of COVID-19 that we do this safely”.
• After an initial postponement from May 2 to May 30, the Tasmanian government has further deferred the periodic elections for the Legislative Council seats of Huon and Rosevear, promising only that they will be held by the time the chamber sits on August 25. Three MLCs have written to the Premier requesting that the elections either be held by post or for the terms of the existing members, which will otherwise expire, to be extended through to revised polling date.
• The junior partner in New Zealand’s ruling coalition, Winston Peters of New Zealand First, is calling for the country’s September 19 election to be postponed to November 21, which has also elicited positive noises from the opposition National Party. It might well be thought an element of self-interest is at work here, with Peters wishing to put distance between the election and a donations scandal that has bedeviled his party, and National anticipating a short-term surge in government support amid the coronavirus crisis. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern may be softening in her opposition to the notion, saying earlier this week it would “depend on what alert level we are at”. There has regrettably been no polling of voting intention in New Zealand in two months, although the government recorded enormously encouraging results in a Colmar Brunton poll on handling of the pandemic in New Zealand and eight other countries, conducted last week.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #88 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 10:20 am
‘Moreover, while the penny hasn’t dropped yet throughout voter land, nearly all the good things that the government have implemented have their origins in Labor ideas. ‘
Exactly.
But who is going to help that penny drop?
The media?
Labor?
The coalition?
You see the problem.
The media won’t.
The coalition certainly won’t.
Labor doesn’t know how.
Bags packed.
To demonstrate what a grub a so-called ‘Labor man’ is mundo, you only have to look at how quickly he has jumped on the Nicholas Stuart bandwagon and appropriated his ‘bags packed’ slur of the ALP.
Qld cases falling considerably but my worry is the relatively low recovery rate. Qld health minister now saying there is a lag in recovery data with most recovering at home. Hopefully they will be testing these more regularly now. I heard there are no COVID-19 patients in our main hospital despite 23 cases locally.
A doctor friend of a rellie reports that they tested entire thoracic ward in a major Swedish hospital and 50% had the Virus without showing any symptoms.
There is thus some sort of likelihood that Sweden is actually headed towards herd immunity.
F.Off Mundo: one can only sell a product if people are listening. At the moment they are hooked on Moses Morrison because he’s projecting hope.
In the meantime, Labor is preparing the ground work for the time when the wheel turns.
In 6-12 months time, with 4 million folk out of work and the Liberals yet again in a state of internal warfare over the continuation of wage subsidies and the prospects of real post shutdown stimulus being kicked to the gutter THEN Labor’s likely to find a very receptive audience in voter land. Even amongst typically low-interest, low information voters: the real prospects of economic oblivion does tend to concentrate the mind.
Paddy Manning – The Greens’ New Deal
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2020/04/11/the-greens-new-deal/15865272009676
Paula Matthewson – Scott Morrison’s coronavirus marketing is working – just look at the polls
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2020/04/10/paula-matthewson-morrison-polls/
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, April 11, 2020 at 10:53 am
To demonstrate what a grub a so-called ‘Labor man’ is mundo, you only have to look at how quickly he has jumped on the Nicholas Stuart bandwagon and appropriated his ‘bags packed’ slur of the ALP.
____________________________________________
This sort of journalism is attention-grabbing crap. Remember Elizabeth Farrelly’s love letter to Gilderoy Lockhart?
Leopards don’t change their spots and Scotty from Marketing continues to be clueless about policy. It’s just that at the moment he’s listening to the right people (scientists and state/territory leaders) and not trying to second guess them.
He could surprise us and become someone he has never been before. But the public won’t remember at election time. They will vote on the choices and circumstances when that comes.
‘Utterly unjust’: why Australian renters and their landlords need certainty on residential tenancies
Tenants are caught in the crossfire as the real estate and insurance industries dispute who will bear the cost of unpaid rent
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/11/utterly-unjust-why-australian-renters-and-their-landlords-need-certainty-on-residential-tenancies
How the coronavirus pandemic could shift the multicultural make-up of our society
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-11/coronavirus-migrant-workers-international-students-australia/12130784
I’m sure the Liberal premiers would have insisted on that. The Labor ones, not so much?
Double-standard. Labor has to do balanced perfection. The Liberals can just obstruct everything and scream three-word slogans like “stop the boats” and “axe the tax” and get a free pass for it.
Itza
Nick Barrett did dual FANZCA and FCICM at RNSH
Puffytmd @ #86 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 10:13 am
Sorry, but I prefer the other option. Increase Interest Rates to wipe it out. Should see quite a few of the greedy get got.
TPOF – if Morrison channels Rudd on the GFC and Keating on Working Nation Etc in the post virus shutdown period with some intelligent well designed stimulus policies he will be likely re-elected.
There are some massive ‘ifs’ in that however. I’m betting that he returns to type. I’m betting that the Liberal Party won’t let either him or Joshie stray far from the IPA economic song sheet, even if they want to.
So Labor will be promising the stimulus, wage subsidies and infrastructure policies and the liberals will scream DEBT! DEBT! The interesting thing will be to see which side of that policy chasm the voters go for.
The received wisdom to date is that ‘Labor Debt = bad’ is a clear election winner. But with millions out of work, with millions more jobs in jeopardy, there has to be real doubt as to whether that wisdom will hold true.
I think people will vote for hope, and they’ll ‘risk’ continuing public debt in the pursuit of that hope.
Peg, quoting Manning
‘Indeed, the Greens have found themselves facing…’ … a situation in which many of the elements of the Greens Personal Pledge for the Planet have become real. BV, individual Greens resisted the pledge because it was unfair to expect THEM to walk their own talk. Now they have been dragged into doing what they should have been doing all along against their will. So have everyone else.
Bludgers will recall that one element of the pledge was no plane travel except in the direst necessity. The global result is a reduction in around 7% in the world’s energy by the airlines use as well as a massive reduction in artificially-generated global cloud cover. There are further gains. Assuming that each of the 4.3 billion passenger flights came with a trip to and from the airport in some sort of vehicle, there are further massive savings for the environment.
Well done, those Greens!
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, April 11, 2020 at 9:31 am
No more waiting in line for your turn with Labor. Get the best and the brightest onto the front line stat!
___________
I agree and the first place to start is to get Crying Jim Chalmers out of Shadow Treasury and replace him with the best and brightest in Andrew Leigh. At the moment it’s like having a plumber as Director of Theoretical Cosmology while Stephen Hawking is repairing toilets.
Andrew_Earlwood,
Morrison has already tasked Taylor with getting on with devising a plan to build the infrastructure THEY want. It’s in their dna. It’s there in their name: the COALition.
I wonder how much will be put through “under regulation” while Parliament isn’t sitting and the world is distracted by Covid-19. I wouldn’t trust most LNP ministers as far s I could throw them (and in my present state of health, that ain’t far).
“ I agree and the first place to start is to get Crying Jim Chalmers out of Shadow Treasury and replace him with the best and brightest in Andrew Leigh. At the moment it’s like having a plumber as Director of Theoretical Cosmology while Stephen Hawking is repairing toilets.”
Labor should send Andrew Leigh on a 6 month voice projection and political one liner development course run by Bob Carr. Then I’d agree with you. Except I’d probably go all the way and make Leigh leader.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Saturday, April 11, 2020 at 11:21 am
Labor should send Andrew Leigh on a 6 month voice projection and political one liner development course run by Bob Carr. Then I’d agree with you. Except I’d probably go all the way and make Leigh leader.
_____________
A Paul Keating directed Bastardization program should toughen him up. Carr can come in for some voice work.
If you want to get out to somewhere different for Easter
https://storyspheres.com/uluru/
Dr Andrew Leigh is Finance Minister material. Not Treasurer. Treasurer needs to be able to sell the medicine with a spoonful of sugar.
And I really don’t know why so-called Labor supporters are allowing the odious ‘Cr**** Jim Chalmers’ meme and albatross to be promulgated. You are doing the miscreants work for them by repeating it!
You can always tell who the cowardly pissants are in a crisis
Rather than taking up the fight against those who contributed to the crisis or contributing something of value to the community.
They waste their time punching down on those they think are weaker
Or screaming at the clouds like a deluded old man
a r: “”But according to a detailed background piece on the national cabinet’s formation by Guardian Australia, it was the state premiers who insisted that opposition leaders be excluded.
I’m sure the Liberal premiers would have insisted on that. The Labor ones, not so much?”
I’m pretty certain that, if Shorten were PM now, he wouldn’t have wanted to invite opposition leaders to join a National Cabinet.
Why not? Because what could he hope that Federal or State opposition leaders bring to such discussions beyond political positioning? The main purpose of Cabinets is to advise the ultimate decision-makers – in this case the PM, the Premiers and relevant Ministers – on their decision-making in relation to their use of the powers of the Executive.
Cabinets can also discuss the details of legislation that is going to be introduced into parliament by the government. But you don’t want opposition leaders involved in these discussions at a cabinet level: the right time for that involvement is in parliament itself.
I think the current National Cabinet is working very well as it is: effective decision-making, no leaks and a growing sense of collegiality.
Bernard Keane
A peculiar Australian disease: the total dislike of parliamentary democracy
Unlike their overseas counterparts, Australian politicians have given themselves a holiday while the pandemic rages. Why are they so different?
https://www.crikey.com.au/2020/04/09/australian-governments-alone-dismissing-parliaments/
c@tmomma: “Increase Interest Rates to wipe it out. Should see quite a few of the greedy get got.”
You mean like all the greedy first homebuyers on modest incomes who borrowed to the max in order to buy modest homes in the ballooning housing markets of recent years?
AE
Huzzah! We are as one!
meher baba says:
Saturday, April 11, 2020 at 11:31 am
c@tmomma: “Increase Interest Rates to wipe it out. Should see quite a few of the greedy get got.”
You mean like all the greedy first homebuyers on modest incomes who borrowed to the max in order to buy modest homes in the ballooning housing markets of recent years?
___________
there is a theme of some Laborites wishing death and destruction on the Australian people on here.
Grimace wanted LNP seats to burn during the bushfires
Some looked with glee that COVID was hitting wealthy areas initially.
I believe it was Puffy who wanted a plague on Australia after last years election. That seems to be manifesting somewhat.
c@tmomma: “Dr Andrew Leigh is Finance Minister material. Not Treasurer. Treasurer needs to be able to sell the medicine with a spoonful of sugar.”
I reckon Andrew Leigh is potentially overvalued at the parliamentary secretary level. Impressive academic qualifications do not necessarily make someone a good politician.
If the ALP is going to look at boosting someone from out of the Ministry into a senior role, why would you go past Ed Husic?
AE
The received wisdom to date is that ‘Labor Debt = bad’ is a clear election winner. But with millions out of work, with millions more jobs in jeopardy, there has to be real doubt as to whether that wisdom will hold true.
___________________________________
And therein lies the problem for the Coalition. For the first time since the Great Depression a relatively huge proportion of the population will not be able to find work for the first time in their lives. A new approach will be impossible to avoid. Either this government has a Damascene conversion about public investment or it will be out on its face.
Labor will only have to promise real jobs through grand infrastructure projects and other practical activities and relatively few people will be scared by the ‘debt bad’ hysteria.
m b
Agree about Ed Husic but apparently he had to stand aside to allow Kristina Keneally entre to the shadow front bench.
Doesn’t Labor’s factions determine who sits in its ministry? Too bad for merit.
nath: “A Paul Keating directed Bastardization program should toughen him up. Carr can come in for some voice work.”
It’s not about toughness or presentation. The guy quite frequently fails to demonstrate good judgement.
He tries to win political arguments by being a smarty-pants. That was the Barry Jones approach, but Jones had the benefit of being unduly revered by many ordinary Australians because he had been a star on a TV quiz show (on which he frequently behaved like an obnoxious know-it-all, but that was apparently forgiveable).
In government, Leigh might have something to offer in a social policy ministry (his academic studies, while officially in the field of economics, mainly focused on social science questions like the concept of community). But he would struggle with performing consistently in the constant round of media appearances required of Frydenberg and Cormann and their many predecessors on both sides of politics.
TPOF
Will make it a bit hard for the Coalition and the shoutback radio knuckle draggers to go the ol’ DOLE BLUDGER bullshit.
meher baba says:
Saturday, April 11, 2020 at 11:31 am
c@tmomma: “Increase Interest Rates to wipe it out. Should see quite a few of the greedy get got.”
You mean like all the greedy first homebuyers on modest incomes who borrowed to the max in order to buy modest homes in the ballooning housing markets of recent years?
____________________________________
Interest rates are the bluntest of blunt weapons. Moving them about creates huge wins and losses for undeserving (to either win or lose) people.
The most criminal thing that successive Coalition governments have done in the past seven years (the latest iteration being the worst) has been to refuse to pull out the well-stocked fiscal toolkit and instead berate the Reserve Bank for failing to wield the only tool it has – a sledgehammer – with sufficient finesse to get the result the government demands.
poroti says:
Saturday, April 11, 2020 at 11:43 am
TPOF
For the first time since the Great Depression a relatively huge proportion of the population will not be able to find work for the first time in their lives.
Will make it a bit hard for the Coalition and the shoutback radio knuckle draggers to go the ol’ DOLE BLUDGER bullshit.
_____________________________________
Exactly
C@t
“Sorry, but I prefer the other option. Increase Interest Rates to wipe it out. Should see quite a few of the greedy get got.”
__________________________________________
Further to my comments above, high interest rates benefit those with excess cash. These would include a large number of the ‘greedy’ that you refer to. Again, interest rate manipulation is a very, very blunt tool.
Dr. Dena Grayson
@DrDenaGrayson
·
2h
BREAKING: #remdesivir shows encouraging preliminary results for #COVID19:
▶️68% (36 of 53 patients) had improvement in oxygen support; only 15% worsened
▶️57% (17 of 30) on ventilators taken OFF
▶️3 of 4 on ECMO (*extremely* ill) taken OFF
#coronavirus
Gilead’s experimental drug remdesivir shows `hopeful’ signs in small group of coronavirus patients
washingtonpost.com
Pegasus: “Agree about Ed Husic but apparently he had to stand aside to allow Kristina Keneally entre to the shadow front bench. Doesn’t Labor’s factions determine who sits in its ministry? Too bad for merit.”
It says everything you need to know about the drawbacks of factional politics (in combination, I suspect, with a concern about balancing representation from different states and boosting female numbers) that Albo’s shadow ministry doesn’t have a place for both Husic and Kenneally. And that Clare O’Neil can’t get a spot in shadow cabinet.
But, meanwhile – just to look at the representation from the right side of the party from which Husic and O’Neil both hail – Richard Marles is deputy, Shorten and Joel Fitzgibbon hold onto spots, Bowen still has a senior shadow ministry, Don Farrell is there. And then we have Michelle Rowland – lovely lady, but little cut through and Jason Clare: like Michael Lee before him, a handsome, well-presented guy who ought to be able to make a big splash, but somehow can’t.
I reckon Husic and O’Neil are worth far more than any of these has beens and never weres: in fact, I’d go so far to say that, along with Chalmers (mainly because of the accident of where he was born), these two represent a significant part of the future hope for the ALP going forward.
But I’m an outsider, so perhaps I don’t appreciate the nuances.
In the next few years the character of whoever is Treasurer will be at least as important as the PM. A bit of charisma and the ability to explain things clearly will be of great advantage.
Sweet jebus. *facepalm*
Dr. Dena Grayson
@DrDenaGrayson
·
5h
IDIOT:
@realDonaldTrump
: “Antibiotics used to solve every problem & now one of the biggest problems the world has is the germ has gotten too brilliant that the anti-antibiotic can’t keep up with it.”
Antivirals—NOT antibiotics—treat viruses.Face with rolling eyes
‘Unforgettable’ footage of endless lines of cars at food banks illustrates coronavirus crisis in the US
Images and video of miles of cars lined up at food banks in San Antonio and other cities across the U.S. present a striking example of the economic effects of the ongoing coronavirus outbreak, which has thrown at least 16 million Americans out of work in recent weeks and increased pressure on the distribution centers to provide key staples for a flood of needy people in the country.
Se. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), an outspoken advocate for economic relief efforts, tweeted on Friday that the scenes from food banks were indicative of the need for immediate Congressional action.
“It is outrageous that in the richest country in the history of the world, people are going hungry,” said Sanders.
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/04/unforgettable-footage-of-endless-lines-of-cars-at-food-banks-illustrates-coronavirus-crisis-in-the-us/
TPOF: “The most criminal thing that successive Coalition governments have done in the past seven years (the latest iteration being the worst) has been to refuse to pull out the well-stocked fiscal toolkit and instead berate the Reserve Bank for failing to wield the only tool it has – a sledgehammer – with sufficient finesse to get the result the government demands.”
+1
But the Reserve Bank has made some mistakes of its own. It’s strongly arguable that they made a couple of cuts too many and inadvertently triggered the housing boom in the second half of the 2010s.
Andrew Earlwood @11:15 “I’m betting that he returns to type. I’m betting that the Liberal Party won’t let either him or Joshie stray far from the IPA economic song sheet, even if they want to.”
Of course they don’t want to. If they have their way it will be a decade or more of austerity – for lower and middle icome earners. The public sector will be shrunk, sold off and hammered beyond repair.
For those fortunate to attend Paul Dyer’s Brandenburg Orchestra performances, you will know how good this iteration of The Messiah was. Having seen the Sydney version, I’m sure this recording in Melbourne will be of similar standard.
Streamed today at 5pm..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUwmeK2UohI&feature=youtu.be&utm_source=wordfly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2020+STB+Miscellaneous&utm_term=General&utm_content=version_A&promo=3392
After waiting nearly 30 years for the right moment, Paul Dyer opened the Brandenburg’s 2017 Season with Handel’s Messiah. This was never going to be a standard Messiah. Paul enlisted the exciting young theatre director Constantine Costi and together assembled an energetic creative team with the mission of delivering Australian audiences ‘Messiah as it has never before been experienced’.
The Australian Brandenburg Orchestra and Brandenburg Choir were joined by four dynamic soloists from around the globe to deliver a ground-breaking series of spectacularly theatrical, sold-out performances which The Australian’s Murray Black described as “energetic, lithe and athletic…a powerful sense of drama infused the music with grace and character.”
In a very special event this Easter, the Brandenburg will be making the full performance recording of Handel’s Messiah available online for the very first time. “
Thoroughly vile and despicable are both News Corp and Pell (I bet he didn’t do it for free)!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/11/cardinal-george-pell-writes-about-suffering-jail-and-coronavirus-in-news-corp-piece
Remember how Greens members sneered at Labor for continuing to allow its partyroom to have a say in its leadership ballots, saying it isn’t pure enough? Suddenly when their own party members propose omitting the party MPs from voting in the leadership it’s panic stations. 😆
And LOL of LOLs they even come up with the same reasoning some Labor members used for their party’s ballot arrangements.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/11/as-former-greens-leaders-we-ask-members-not-to-shut-the-party-room-out-of-leadership-votes
Unlike their overseas counterparts, Australian politicians have given themselves a holiday while the pandemic rages. Why are they so different?
————-
Australian politicians, unlike their overseas counterparts, are quite happy to admit that they are much less essential than shop assistants.
French officials report heart incidents in experimental coronavirus treatments with hydroxychloroquine
France reported dozens of heart incidents linked to an anti-malaria drug President Trump has hyped as a possible treatment for the coronavirus.
Data released by France’s drug safety agency showed 43 cases of heart incidents linked to hydroxychloroquine, underscoring the risk of providing unproven treatments to COVID-19 patients.
“This initial assessment shows that the risks, in particular cardiovascular, associated with these treatments are very present and potentially increased in COVID-19 patients. Almost all of the declarations come from health establishments,” the agency said. “These drugs should only be used in hospitals, under close medical supervision.”
France has recorded 100 health incidents and four fatalities linked to experimental drugs for those with the coronavirus since late March. Three other patients had to be revived, and 82 incidents were considered “serious.”
https://thehill.com/policy/international/europe/492317-french-officials-report-heart-incidents-in-experimental
“Barry Jones approach, but Jones had the benefit of being unduly revered by many ordinary Australians because he had been a star on a TV quiz show (on which he frequently behaved like an obnoxious know-it-all, but that was apparently forgiveable).”
I remember being quite impressed by Barry Jones’ Pick-a-Box performance when I was a kid. Maybe it’s OK to to be a know-it-all if you actually do know it all.