Wherein we finally wrap up the Call of the Board series, a slowly unfolding state-by-state round-up every seat result from last year’s federal election. Here we tie up the loose ends of the territories, where Labor achieved a clean sweep of five seats – an essentially foregone conclusion for the Australian Capital Territory (which went from two to three seats at this election), but a strong result for them in the Northern Territory (which may be set to lose its second at the next). Previous episodes of the series dealt with Sydney (here and here), regional New South Wales, Melbourne, regional Victoria, south-east Queensland, regional Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia and Tasmania.
Solomon (Labor 3.1%; 3.0% swing to CLP): The always marginal seat that covers Darwin has only gone the way of the winning party once out of the last four elections (in 2013), this time returning Luke Gosling after he gained it for Labor in 2016. Gosling’s 6.0% winning margin off a 7.4% swing in 2016 was the clearest win in the history of a highly marginal seat, the previous record having been Dave Tollner’s 2.8% win for the Country Liberal Party in 2004. This meant he had enough change to record the seat’s second-biggest margin even after a 3.0% swing back to the Country Liberals. As the map to the right illustrates, the pattern of swings in the seat reflected broader themes from the election: the affluent area around the city centre swung to Labor, but the lower-income suburbs of the north went the other way, and the more conservative new suburbia of Palmerston went further still.
Lingiari (Labor 5.5%; 2.7% swing to CLP): Warren Snowdon retained the remainder-of-NT seat of Lingiari, which he has held without interruption since 2001, his closest shave in that time being a 0.9% margin in 2013. The swings in the two Northern Territory seats have been closely matched at the last election, with a 7.5% blowout in Lingiari in 2016 followed by a 2.7% correction this time. There have been occasions in the past where swings varied widely between Alice Springs and Katherine on the one hand and the remote communities in the other, but not this time.
Bean (Labor 7.5%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): The ACT’s new third seat was created entirely from territory that was formerly in the Canberra electorate, whose member Gai Brodtmann did not seek re-election. David Smith, who had previously filled Katy Gallagher’s Senate vacancy when she fell foul of section 44 in May 2018, had no trouble holding Bean for Labor in the face of a slight swing. Left-wing independent Jamie Christie scored a creditable 8.3%, contributing to solid drops on the primary vote for both major parties.
Canberra (Labor 17.1%; 4.1% swing to Labor): The Canberra electorate covers the central third of the capital, and might be regarded as the true “new” seat since it drew territory from both of the previous electorates. Like Darwin, Canberra offered a miniature reflection of national trend in that the city’s inner area moved solidly further to the left, while the suburbs swung to the Liberals. This was reflected in a 4.6% primary vote increase for the Greens, reducing the gap with the Liberals to 27.8% to 23.3%. This is the lowest yet recorded in an ACT seat, but with the Liberal how-to-vote directing preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens, they would probably have remained out of contention if they had made up the difference. With the departure of Gai Brodtmann, its new Labor member is Alicia Payne, who dropped 2.0% on the primary vote to 40.5%.
Fenner (Labor 10.6%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): Labor’s Andrew Leigh suffered a slight swing from similar primary vote numbers to 2016, the main disturbance being the appearance of the United Australia Party with 4.1%.
The demand to disclose how you vote and to justify your decision is another bullying tactic to stifle alternative voices.
I speculate there would be more than a handful of Laborites who would put the Coalition ahead of the Greens when voting but that’s hunky dory of course.
How a person votes and their reasons for doing so at any point in time is nobody’s business but their own.
RI @ #1031 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 11:19 am
Contested convention, you mean. They can’t have a hung convention.
In which case the superdelegates could decide it. They’re unlikely to get behind Bernie, so call that +16% for whomever the main “not Bernie Sanders” candidate is.
Or if that’s not enough, then presumably the candidates with the fewest delegates will start pledging them upwards to candidates with more. Winning the nomination takes an absolute majority of delegates, so they’re deadlocked unless/until they start doing this.
Probably it’s down to which number is bigger:
1. Sanders + Warren
2. Buttigieg + Klobuchar + Biden + Bloomberg + superdelegates
Tend to think the latter group will have the larger base, collectively.
It sounds like GM is withdrawing entirely from right-hand-drive markets.
But the Minister is really, really disappointed.
BW
Your comments obliquely suggest that the Greens are supporting racist parties so by implication the NT Greens are racist.
Are the NT Greens racist? A simple yes or no will suffice.
Vale Holden. There was a time when such an event would have led to national mourning and the lynching of the perpetrators.
Goodbye another skilled industry.
What was it someone said here a while back, wtte we’ll all end up just doing each others laundry.
Holden wasnt the Libs paymasters so they didnt give a fuck.
I still have my EH wagon.
Greens preferencing racists ahead of Labor
” I’m not a racist, but ”
comes to mind
sprocket_ @ #1070 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 1:44 pm
This is a silly question. To see why, try this one.
If you had a choice of preferencing:
1. Frackers who are not racists but are against gay marriage
2.Frackers who are proven racists but are in favor of gay marriage
Who would you choose? Answer must be binary.
Greens leader Adam Bandt to go rural and regional, to connect with farmers
https://www.theland.com.au/story/6629243/bandts-family-invented-the-ute-and-he-wants-to-match-its-impact/?cs=4951
“The family of new Greens leader Adam Bandt has already made one of the most significant contributions to farmers in the history of Australian agriculture – by inventing the ute.
“Back in 1932, Lewis Bandt was asked by a farmer to invent something so he could get pigs to market on Saturday and his wife to church on Sunday, so he came up with the ute,” Mr Bandt said.
The recently-minted party leader wants to make a similar contribution to rural Australia, and sees the Greens and farmers as natural allies.
“I think there’s a myth that farmers are anti-Greens that has been put out by our opponents, because they’re worried if farmers found out what we stood for, they might vote Greens,” Mr Bandt said.
“What we’ve found is that when farmers actually find out what the Greens stand for, they like it, because there is actually a lot of alignment.”
Mr Bandt wants the party to connect more with regional Australia, where it has already had some success, pointing to the Greens’ Ballina MP Tamara Smith in the NSW parliament and Glen Innes mayor Carol Sparks.
“They’ve been voted in by people – including by farmers – because it’s clear they’ll stand up for the community’s interests,” he said.
“We can’t be bought and that makes us pretty strong advocates for people in the regions and people on the land.”
Mr Bandt said his party was the only one trying to stop climate change from “devastating agriculture”.
“At some point in this country, we are going to have to choose between crops and coal,” Mr Bandt said.”
The first car I owned was an FB Holden station wagon. Handled like a brick on wheels.
Cost $800 and I got $30 for it at Simsmetal wreckers.
Peg
I like Adam Brandt’s log cabin story. But will it play in Peoria?
Holden was good if you were in the market for a shitbox
Pegasussays:
Monday, February 17, 2020 at 2:51 pm
Are the NT Greens racist? A simple yes or no will suffice.
———————————
The Greens are not racist but they do sometimes support racists.
sprocket_
Yes, it’s quite entertaining stepping out of a modern car into a late 50’s/60’s Holden.
Concepts such as braking and handling just go out the window.
It’s all about the nostalgia and polishing the chrome bits.
P1
If you had a choice of preferencing:
1. Frackers who are not racists but are against gay marriage
2.Frackers who are proven racists but are in favor of gay marriage
Who would you choose? Answer must be binary.
______________________________
Interesting question. Of the parties/candidates standing for Johnson are there any that fall clearly into either 1. or 2.?
C@tmomma @ #1072 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 1:48 pm
As usual, all you offer is unprovoked snark.
You are a real charmer these days.
P1
Yep, the binary choice rubbish is just that, rubbish.
Do you think Laborites would question those soft PHON voters who are racist and xenophobic but do or don’t support fracking, do or do not believe in global warming……
Labor has unsuccessfully been wooing this very subset of voters in Queensland. Now it is pivoting hard towards them.
I bet these demands to answer binary choices doesn’t factor in at all.
Pegasus @ #1112 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 3:00 pm
Simple, effective and well worded messaging.
Bandt is doing well so far.
Some more rational for GM closure – what they think of Morrison and his gang of retro fossil fuel lovers..
“The truth of the matter, it would seem, is that the cost of GM keeping up with the transition to electric mobility inevitable means it must prune what has become a dead branch – a fact that was made clear in a statement from GM boss Mary Barra.
“I’ve often said that we will do the right thing, even when it’s hard, and this is one of those times,” said Barra in a statement regarding the shutdown.
“We are restructuring our international operations, focusing on markets where we have the right strategies to drive robust returns, and prioritizing global investments that will drive growth in the future of mobility, especially in the areas of EVs and AVs.”
General Motors, like other auto giants on a global scale, is increasingly making commitments to a transition to electric and autonomous vehicles.
In November 2018 it announced it would sacrifice five internal combustion engine vehicle factories and slash staff to cut costs in an effort to fund a transition to electric mobility.
It recently showed off an all-electric Hummer at the American Superbowl event, and also has a new Chevrolet electric car under development in Michigan.
https://thedriven.io/2020/02/17/holden-brand-bites-the-dust-in-favour-of-electric-and-autonomous-vehicles/
Labor preferenced One nation last at the last election didn’t it ?
Unlike the NT greens preferencing racists ahead of Labor.
Most people in the regional areas hate the Greens. Bandt will be lucky to get a good reception anywhere in the countryside.
Motor journalist says if only we were allowed to drive LH Drive cars as well as RH, things would be different.
Sure, put Aunt Jemimah behind the wheel and off you go. Horrors.
PS
Such an easy claim to make. Care to substantiate with some actual facts.
The NT Greens came into existence in 2005. It has been reported this preference order has never happened before. The context now is the existential crisis of global heating.
How about a comprehensive and exhaustive analysis of all htv preference orders issued by the two major parties and the Greens to support your claim.
Go on, go for it and please report back with citations.
Australia could have been at the forefront of new EVs,but with these backward bastards in government who would invest here.
Who could forget this effort in trying to woo the Qld redneck vote…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/video/2017/may/08/bill-shortens-employ-australians-first-advertisement-labelled-a-shocker-video
Shorten ended up apologising, IIRC.
Pegasus @ #1111 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 3:00 pm
Christine Milne’s parents were dairy farmers.
Meant diddly squat in the bush.
PeterStanton
“The Greens are not racist but they do sometimes support racists.”
A distinction without a difference.
‘Pegasus says:
Monday, February 17, 2020 at 2:51 pm
BW
Your comments obliquely suggest that the Greens are supporting racist parties so by implication the NT Greens are racist.
Are the NT Greens racist? A simple yes or no will suffice.’
Racism is not some woke v bogan game in the Culture Wars in the NT. It can be a matter of life and death.
So, you might just want to ask surviving victims of a century and a half of intermittent territory and federal government institutional racism. There are an awful lot of Indigenous people, including very many who I have worked with, known, loved, liked, respected, or loathed, who died well before their time.
The most recent ‘event’ was the cutting of hundreds of millions of dollars by the Fed Coalition Government supported, in the Northern Territory, by the Giles Government. There is no doubt at all in my mind that this has led directly to an increased rate of premature deaths among remote NT Indigenous people.
steve davis @ #1126 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 3:11 pm
Labor should be driving around a big truck with this message on it.
Actually, a fleet of trucks with a range of messages.
There are so many to choose from.
I don’t think you need permission from Rupert.
lizzie @ #1133 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 3:17 pm
We must have our submarines …!!!
sprocket_
Was that GM boss Mary Barra’s Monday press release ? Sorry angling for a larf 😉
The Libs hate any sort of welfare payment unless its to their rich mates.That includes the NDIS which they would never have implemented in a million years.
BK @ #1100 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 11:39 am
Didn’t I read/hear they were shutting down all operations related to right hand drive vehicles? If so that means GM are also going to pull out of every country that drives on the left hand side of the road, including the UK.
So where will this leave the traditional tribal warfare of Ford vs Holden? Who will Holden Heads transfer their allegiance to?
And here is Greg the Lyin’ Hunt in 2016 with some comments on the bright future of GM Holden..
https://mobile.twitter.com/greghuntmp/status/791511098549612544
sprocket_ @ #1114 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 12:00 pm
My first car was an EJ wagon. Bought it for $450. It was bog standard and in good nick. Sold it 2.5 years later to a collector for $1000. 😉
“At some point in this country, we are going to have to choose between crops and coal,” Mr Bandt said.”
Australian thermal coal export prices are now more or less entirely in the hands of the Chinese.
The reason is that the commodity is in oversupply. The oversupply will increase due to structural factors like the switch to renewables in China and India, due to the maturing of the Chinese economy away from construction, an increasing amount of steel supply in China coming from recycled steel with heavy loads of embedded energy, and because of increasing supply of coal from providers such as China, Mongolia, Russia, Indonesia and certain South American states.
It is quite clear from this general situation that whether or not Australia exports thermal coal will have no significant impact on the total amount of coal burned. There is probably a significant difference in atmospheric content depending on the quality of the coal burned. In general Australian coal burns more cleanly than some o/s sources which would be used to substitute for Australian coal.
The Chinese demonstrated repeatedly during 2019 that they are prepared to manipulate the thermal coal market prices to their advantage. The reason they could demonstrate this is because they have thermal coal substitution options. Australian spot price for export thermal coal is now around $15-$20 a ton below production costs.
To sum up, Bandt’s formulation assumes that supply and demand are irrelevant, and further, it presumes we have a hand to play in it with respect to the export of thermal coal.
There are essentially four main policy questions in relation to thermal coal in Australia:
The first is whether we continue to export thermal coal.
The second is whether we continue to burn coal for our domestic energy needs.
The third is whether we continue to export coking coal.
The fourth is whether we bung a tariff on imported embedded coal-fired CO2 emissions.
My views:
1. Yes.
2. No. This is, IMO, the policy space in which the Federal government can act decisively.
3. Yes. When alternatives to coking coal are developed we put a tariff signal on embedded coking coal imports.
4. Yes.Currently we have absolutely no control over whether other states burn coal. Putting import tariffs on coal-fired embedded consumables is a power we have right here in Australia to send a market/regulatory signal.
Bandt’s simplistic coal/crops binary is targetted at the school-kiddie wing of Greens policy formulation.
Whether Labor will come up with a formulation of policies that mirror my own, I don’t know. But I do know two things. The Coalition will not. And what the Greens want is irrelevant.
DP
The war is over. You would have thought the Holden heads would have tried to save their name when the Libs were wanting to close them down.
Sprocket
Good one. Another load of VD from a Lib.
Player One @ #1112 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 11:58 am
But your question is no longer binary as there is a 3rd possibility.
caf
“It is an error to treat a 70% probability as “certain”. ”
Yeah, this bugged me too: people who interpreted a 71.4% chance as a dead certainty. If someone told you there was a 28.6% chance that a chamber was loaded, would you still fire a gun at your head? That was the odds of a Trump victory (in more ways than one, perhaps).
So many people don’t understand probability. Including the media, who want to turn probability into a binary: win or lose?
My first car was a Holden Torana like this:
I got it for my 18th birthday after I passed my driving test. 🙂
Didn’t I read/hear they were shutting down all operations related to right hand drive vehicles? If so that means GM are also going to pull out of every country that drives on the left hand side of the road, including the UK.
______
Danama Papers
When your post came through I was on a long phone call with a well connected automotive colleague. Yes RHD GM product is on the way out although we believe GM in the US has developed a rear wheal drive Corvette but that’s it.
Single marque Holden dealers are going to be in a lot of trouble.
Rex Douglas
” Bandt is doing well so far. ”
i agree, and, as a conservative anarchist, i’m not even a member of the greens. -a.v.
rhwombat:
Mavis @ #1647 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 11:54 am
Ground zero of the coronavirus may’ve been pinpointed:
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/researchers-pinpoint-facility-near-wuhan-seafood-market-as-possible-ground-zero/news-story/d51925ef5b00711e29e194ac73be7951
[‘The un-peered reviewed, as yet unpublished (and unpublishable outside China) Xiao “paper” on which this bullshit News Corpse article is based is specious speculative crap with no data other than a couple of jealous physicists getting hysterical. It’s another example of sub-pseudo-science political gossip used as grist for the Fear Industry. Boycott News Corpse.’]
I defer to your expert knowledge in this area, noting that I didn’t proffer a view thereof.