Wherein we finally wrap up the Call of the Board series, a slowly unfolding state-by-state round-up every seat result from last year’s federal election. Here we tie up the loose ends of the territories, where Labor achieved a clean sweep of five seats – an essentially foregone conclusion for the Australian Capital Territory (which went from two to three seats at this election), but a strong result for them in the Northern Territory (which may be set to lose its second at the next). Previous episodes of the series dealt with Sydney (here and here), regional New South Wales, Melbourne, regional Victoria, south-east Queensland, regional Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia and Tasmania.
Solomon (Labor 3.1%; 3.0% swing to CLP): The always marginal seat that covers Darwin has only gone the way of the winning party once out of the last four elections (in 2013), this time returning Luke Gosling after he gained it for Labor in 2016. Gosling’s 6.0% winning margin off a 7.4% swing in 2016 was the clearest win in the history of a highly marginal seat, the previous record having been Dave Tollner’s 2.8% win for the Country Liberal Party in 2004. This meant he had enough change to record the seat’s second-biggest margin even after a 3.0% swing back to the Country Liberals. As the map to the right illustrates, the pattern of swings in the seat reflected broader themes from the election: the affluent area around the city centre swung to Labor, but the lower-income suburbs of the north went the other way, and the more conservative new suburbia of Palmerston went further still.
Lingiari (Labor 5.5%; 2.7% swing to CLP): Warren Snowdon retained the remainder-of-NT seat of Lingiari, which he has held without interruption since 2001, his closest shave in that time being a 0.9% margin in 2013. The swings in the two Northern Territory seats have been closely matched at the last election, with a 7.5% blowout in Lingiari in 2016 followed by a 2.7% correction this time. There have been occasions in the past where swings varied widely between Alice Springs and Katherine on the one hand and the remote communities in the other, but not this time.
Bean (Labor 7.5%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): The ACT’s new third seat was created entirely from territory that was formerly in the Canberra electorate, whose member Gai Brodtmann did not seek re-election. David Smith, who had previously filled Katy Gallagher’s Senate vacancy when she fell foul of section 44 in May 2018, had no trouble holding Bean for Labor in the face of a slight swing. Left-wing independent Jamie Christie scored a creditable 8.3%, contributing to solid drops on the primary vote for both major parties.
Canberra (Labor 17.1%; 4.1% swing to Labor): The Canberra electorate covers the central third of the capital, and might be regarded as the true “new” seat since it drew territory from both of the previous electorates. Like Darwin, Canberra offered a miniature reflection of national trend in that the city’s inner area moved solidly further to the left, while the suburbs swung to the Liberals. This was reflected in a 4.6% primary vote increase for the Greens, reducing the gap with the Liberals to 27.8% to 23.3%. This is the lowest yet recorded in an ACT seat, but with the Liberal how-to-vote directing preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens, they would probably have remained out of contention if they had made up the difference. With the departure of Gai Brodtmann, its new Labor member is Alicia Payne, who dropped 2.0% on the primary vote to 40.5%.
Fenner (Labor 10.6%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): Labor’s Andrew Leigh suffered a slight swing from similar primary vote numbers to 2016, the main disturbance being the appearance of the United Australia Party with 4.1%.
lizzie @ #1134 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 3:17 pm
Like maybe taking money away from wealthy retirees who receive Franking Credits perchance?
lizzie @ #1134 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 12:17 pm
This just shows how ideologically driven this mob are.
Don’t want any facts which would show how devoid of reason their ideology is.
C@t
If only Labor’s spin doctors were as good as LNP’s!
C@t
“Like maybe taking money away from wealthy retirees who receive Franking Credits perchance?”
Oh yes, what a great cause that is. 😛 That’s not pissing taxpayer dollars against the wall, no way.
It has been revealed that the angry firie, Paul Parker, is a fan of Pauline Hanson. 😮
C@T
You don’t even need to do that. The government can fund higher newstart by cutting existing budget waste or by taking advantage of record low debt which will become cheaper once the RBA starts its own QE program.
Mexican
But their idea of ‘waste’ isn’t mine.
Franking credits: Welfare for the rich. All good in Liberal land. Newstart: Welfare for the poor. The scum of the earth in Liberal land.
lizzie @ #1154 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 3:45 pm
The story of Labor’s political life.
Also, we need a wealthy benefactor who will spend ~$90 Million at the next election to support Labor surreptitiously. 😀
Lizzie
So he is in fact a defacto Smoko supporter.
Mexicanbeemer @ #1157 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 3:52 pm
It’s a Culture War shibboleth, so it won’t be done.
I don’t know about a fish and chip shop owner but Labor on the Central Coast has a mayor who owns a beauty salon. 🙂
I think we need more like that.
Danama Papers @ #1140 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 2:28 pm
Tesla!
Lizzie
$700 million for consultancy fees, sports rorts, Barrier Reef Foundation, water buy-backs and the whole management of the unemployed could be cut.
C@T
Absolutely, they probably think all 800k on newstart go by the name of Paxton.
General comment
Shares are not the domain of the rich, anyone can accumulate shares overtime without a lot of money upfront. If only buying a house was that easy.
When Chalmers was interviewed today about the ABC case, he wasn’t at all critical of the Federal Court judge’s decision, saying (wwtte) that freedom of the press is a matter for the legislature. Contrast Chalmer’s measured response with Dutton’s and Porter’s – both of whom are in the process of looking for other heads of power (under s.51) to inflict their jaundiced view on the polity. It’s now the settled common law in Australia that those who can claim aboriginality, pursuant to the tripartite test laid down in Mabo No. (2), cannot be deported under the terms of section 501 of the Migration Act.
Mexican
You’re right. And close Christmas Island.
I thought it was a Torano I had the misfortune of hiring in Maryborough in 1999 the clutch of which gave up the ghost after point one of a three point turn was just completed in the main street.
On reflection, it was a Datsun Sunny.
I am not very good with cars.
Danabanana:
GM already divested itself of Vauxhall and Opel, so I think the only brand presence they still have in the UK is Chevy… of which they sold a grand total of zero cars in January.
Well, there’s a revelation. Hypocrisy on show today from Minister Andrews.
‘Pegasus @ #1112 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 3:00 pm
Greens leader Adam Bandt to go rural and regional, to connect with farmers’
bwahahaha! This is actually genuinely funny.
Nothing quite shows how out of touch the Greens really are with the bush. Nothing.
Bandt will ‘get in touch’ with farmers by leading with the main Greens agricultural policies, as posted on their official web site, including:
1. Massive reduction in irrigation allocations throughout the MDB.
2. Closing down the cotton industry. (Could the olive and almond industries be far behind?)
3. Ban on all land clearing.
4. Mandatory provision of unspecified ecosystem services. These services are to managed by a national Ecosystem Services regulator with monitoring and prosecution powers.
5. Closing down of all feedlots, piggeries, etc.
6. Ban on live cattle, sheep, camel and goat exports.
7. Probable ban on rodeos, camp drafts and the like.
8. Effective closing down of all GMO research and deployment in Australia.
9. Bans on various chemicals.
10. Closing down all native forestry operations.
11. Ban on grazing in reserves.
12. Ban on shooting in reserves.
13. Immediate ban on mulesing.
14. Effective closure of the roo industry?
15. Elimination of the dairy and beef cattle and sheep flock if methane cannot be controlled by other means.
16. Effectively, no new dams.
Yes, there will be good support for opposing fracking. Yes, there will be a spread of support for replacing coal with gas and hydro and renewables. Yes, there will be a scatter of tree changers, sea changers and government workers in regional towns. But, for the rest, the farmers will happily tell Bandt to go and get fucked.
Oh lovely.
Marise Payne emphasising that all decisions on virus have been made on medical advice.
Howzat, Dutton?
Is everyone else super happy that the coalition government that Joe Hockey was apart of gets to be around for Q-Time whilst the end of Holden is happening.
The Dunny Paper Wars:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/17/hong-kong-armed-gang-steals-toilet-rolls-as-coronavirus-panic-buying-spreads
While Bandt is explaining how he is going to gut rural and regional economies directly, no doubt he will also be happy to remind rural and regional people who are in defence seats that the Greens intend to gut defence.
Should go down really well!
Boerwar @ #1171 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 3:12 pm
Why are we growing a water-intensive crop like cotton on the driest continent in the world in the first place? Can’t even eat the damn stuff.
Boerwar @ #1174 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 4:26 pm
Old establishment conservatives like you won’t go down without taking the rest of us with you it seems.
Antony Green
@AntonyGreenABC
I don’t see how Labor is well placed to win the NT election. A swing of about 5% and it loses its majority, though Labor would be helped by splits amongst its opponents. If Labor loses northern Darwin seats, its path back to office is tough. https://antonygreen.com.au/2019-northern-territory-redistribution/
‘a r says:
Monday, February 17, 2020 at 4:30 pm
Boerwar @ #1171 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 3:12 pm
But, for the rest, the farmers will happily tell Bandt to go and get fucked.
Why are we growing a water-intensive crop like cotton on the driest continent in the world in the first place? Can’t even eat the damn stuff.’
I am not going to repeat the policy ins and outs of the cotton wars on Bludger. There is no point. The Greens are ideologically opposed to GM cotton. The standing policy is ‘immediate withdrawal of GMOs from the environment’. End of story.
My point is entirely different: Labor got flogged in rural and regional electorates because, inter alia, many of those voters viewed Labor and the Greens as being same, same.
Ironically, the Greens have been upbraiding Labor mercilessly since that election for having policies that are not the same as the Greens! Comrades, comrades! Fucked if you do. Fucked if you don’t. The argument is that these Greens-urged policies will make Labor more popular. (This one does not pass the pub test. The Greens are competing with Labor for votes. Why would the Greens give useful electoral advice?)
But, moving right onto my main point. Bandt is going to play a three card trick in rural and regional electorates. He is going to focus on fracking and the link between water and fracking and fracking and global warming. What Bandt will NOT do is to focus on the swingeing set of policies that will essentially destroy economic life across vast areas of rural and regional electorates.
Bandt is going to do a populist cheat. Which is why he is backing racist, LGBTIQ hating frackers in the NT. Anything goes. Whatever it takes.
He Bandt gets up at any rural inland town and announces the end of cotton, the possible end of almonds, vines and olives for the same reasons, the drastic reduction of irrigation water, the end of clearing, the complete end of native forestry, the end of feedlots, piggeries and the like, the possible end of dairying, beef and wool industries, not forgetting the complete end to live exports of cattle, sheep, goats, camels and horses, he would be lucky to get out of town alive.
But, but, but… there is a possible bright side. This foray into the Australian heartlands by Bandt might be of some vague benefit to the Greens policy makers if they get a shock and hence pull their heads out of their arses when it comes to the swingeing impacts of their rural and regional policies. But I doubt it. They just don’t get it.
As previously noted about the Inner Urbs: They take clean air and make it dirty. Water, ditto. Clean green food they turn into shit which they shunt that off to somewhere else. They provide no ecosystem services. They DO maintain multitudes of ferals, rats, weeds and the like.
‘lizzie says:
Monday, February 17, 2020 at 4:40 pm
Antony Green
@AntonyGreenABC
I don’t see how Labor is well placed to win the NT election. A swing of about 5% and it loses its majority, though Labor would be helped by splits amongst its opponents. If Labor loses northern Darwin seats, its path back to office is tough. https://antonygreen.com.au/2019-northern-territory-redistribution/‘
Wouldn’t it be lovely if the NT Greens manage to mimic their federal counterparts and enable extreme right wing government there?
Boerwar @ #1179 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 4:45 pm
And neither do you, apparently. No environment, no economy.
Bandt is channelling Milne.
I used to point out that the Greens needed to do exactly what the Nats had done – instead of trying to cover every seat in Australia, they needed to work out a niche and exploit it.
In recent years, this is exactly what they have done, and initially it was paying off for them, with an increasing number of inner city seats looking like likely contenders.
It’s unfortunate that that strategy led to undermining Labor (it didn’t have to necessarily; there are inner city seats held by Liberals, too!) and it also seems to have lost a bit of its puff in more recent times.
If the Greens are serious about gaining lower house seats, however, their best bet is still to concentrate their efforts on the inner city, where they have a base to build on, rather than spending resources in areas where they’d have to start from scratch.
That makes more sense if its their Senate numbers they want to increase.
Chuckle.
zoomster
The Greens have made it plain. The want to run Australia by way of a BOP in the Senate and a BOP in the House. To do this they need to take seats away from Labor. This they are trying to do.
To do this they need Labor to win enough seats to form government with the support of a Greens BOP. But, this the Greens are trying to stop Labor from doing. They are stopping Labor from doing this by incessant attacks on Labor policies and people, by six years of Kill Bill, for example, by stuffing around with preferences and with running directly against Labor in elections.
The second part of the Greens plan: ensuring Labor has enough seats to form government with the benefit of a Greens BOP is a dismal failure.
It IS a Plan.
Just not a very coherent Plan.
And, to date, it is failing on a routine basis.
Lots of tough talking, presumably by way of setting some starting points for later give and take. Of these the most interesting is the passing reference to Barnier’s comment on access by the British Finance industry to the EU. This industry currently puts around 50 billion euros in tax money into the Exchequer. This is one area where the Brits might have shot themselves in both feet:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/16/brexit-britain-and-eu-will-rip-each-other-apart-in-trade-talks
This is one of the NT Greens preferred candidates in Johnston:
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=542888936321952
‘Rex Douglas says:
Monday, February 17, 2020 at 4:39 pm
Boerwar @ #1174 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 4:26 pm
While Bandt is explaining how he is going to gut rural and regional economies directly, no doubt he will also be happy to remind rural and regional people who are in defence seats that the Greens intend to gut defence.
Should go down really well!
Old establishment conservatives like you won’t go down without taking the rest of us with you it seems.’
I am not sure why you are trying to reframe this in terms of personally abusing a Bludger poster. I know that this is what Greens often do when confronted with a reality they would rather not know about.
My points in this discussion about Bandt’s farmer foray are quite simple electoral points about observable reality.
Labor was tarred with the Greens brush in rural and regional electorates in the last election and consequently got flogged there.
Bandt is going to the rural and regional electorates with the same policies the Greens had during the 2019 election, and if he actually tries to market them while ‘connecting with farmers’ he is in for a very rude shock.
It would be a bit like if Bandt roared into the inner urbs and told people that coffee, wine, beer, dairy, beef, goat, sheep, farmed fish, avos, and cars would all be banned. People would be limited to no more than 10 new clothes items a year. Access to flights would be compulsorily banned. Housing footprint would be reduced by 75%. Plus the Inner Urbs would be fined for anything beyond their personal net zero emissions in order to pay for the planting of tens of millions of offset trees on high quality land that would also be paid for out of Inner Urbs climate levies. Intrusive? Well have a look at the following: just some of what the Greens are planning for rural and regional electorates.
1. Massive reduction in irrigation allocations throughout the MDB.
2. Closing down the cotton industry. (Could the olive and almond industries be far behind?)
3. Ban on all land clearing.
4. Mandatory provision of unspecified ecosystem services. These services are to managed by a national Ecosystem Services regulator with monitoring and prosecution powers.
5. Closing down of all feedlots, piggeries, etc.
6. Ban on live cattle, sheep, camel and goat exports.
7. Probable ban on rodeos, camp drafts and the like.
8. Effective closing down of all GMO research and deployment in Australia.
9. Bans on various chemicals.
10. Closing down all native forestry operations.
11. Ban on grazing in reserves.
12. Ban on shooting in reserves.
13. Immediate ban on mulesing.
14. Effective closure of the roo industry?
15. Elimination of the dairy and beef cattle and sheep flock if methane cannot be controlled by other means.
16. Effectively, no new dams.
17. Closing down the coal industry.
18. Closing down the uranium industry.
https://www.afr.com/companies/professional-services/coalition-splashes-700m-a-year-on-consultants-20200214-p540vk
But you do wonder what advice they are getting, and whether they take any notice.
It’s interesting you get defensive at being seen as an establishment conservative.
I detect some inner turmoil…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/17/lobbyists-are-sidestepping-rules-to-hide-activities-former-integrity-chief-tells-icac
‘Rex Douglas says:
Monday, February 17, 2020 at 5:23 pm
I am not sure why you are trying to reframe this in terms of personally abusing a Bludger poster
It’s interesting you get defensive at being seen as an establishment conservative.
I detect some inner turmoil…’
As noted above, as soon as the Greens don’t like having to confront the realities of the policy and the politics discussions they start with the personal bitching. When outed on getting personal, nasty and vicious, as Rex is, they double up with bitching and the aggression and the pop psyche.
What you and the Greens are ignoring, pal, is that the Greens’ rural and regional policies are as popular in rural and regional electorates as a public koala execution would be in the middle of Brunswick Road. Not that the Inner Urbs Greens provide any ecosystem services like koala habitat.
Let’s not forget, despite the anti-Bandt barrage, the Greens Party vote in regional Qld grew while Labors crashed.
Boerwar @ #1192 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 5:27 pm
‘pal’ 😆
Take a deep breath and relax.
‘Rex Douglas says:
Monday, February 17, 2020 at 5:28 pm
Let’s not forget, despite the anti-Bandt barrage, the Greens Party vote in regional Qld grew while Labors crashed.’
I sincerely hope Bandt announces the following at all his meetings. The truth and nothing but the truth:
1. Massive reduction in irrigation allocations throughout the MDB.
2. Closing down the cotton industry. (Could the olive and almond industries be far behind?)
3. Ban on all land clearing.
4. Mandatory provision of unspecified ecosystem services. These services are to managed by a national Ecosystem Services regulator with monitoring and prosecution powers.
5. Closing down of all feedlots, piggeries, etc.
6. Ban on live cattle, sheep, camel and goat exports.
7. Probable ban on rodeos, camp drafts and the like.
8. Effective closing down of all GMO research and deployment in Australia.
9. Bans on various chemicals.
10. Closing down all native forestry operations.
11. Ban on grazing in reserves.
12. Ban on shooting in reserves.
13. Immediate ban on mulesing.
14. Effective closure of the roo industry?
15. Elimination of the dairy and beef cattle and sheep flock if methane cannot be controlled by other means.
16. Effectively, no new dams.
17. Closing down the coal industry.
18. Closing down the uranium industry.
I bet that anti-environmentalist folder of yours has a lovely outstanding colour code on your desktop.
I sincerely hope Bandt announces the following at all his meetings. The truth and nothing but the truth. Farmers will be rushing to, er, shake his hands, pat him on the head and tell him what wonderful things the Greens will do for rural and regional economies:
1. Massive reduction in irrigation allocations throughout the MDB.
2. Closing down the cotton industry. (Could the olive and almond industries be far behind?)
3. Ban on all land clearing.
4. Mandatory provision of unspecified ecosystem services. These services are to managed by a national Ecosystem Services regulator with monitoring and prosecution powers.
5. Closing down of all feedlots, piggeries, etc.
6. Ban on live cattle, sheep, camel and goat exports.
7. Probable ban on rodeos, camp drafts and the like.
8. Effective closing down of all GMO research and deployment in Australia.
9. Bans on various chemicals.
10. Closing down all native forestry operations.
11. Ban on grazing in reserves.
12. Ban on shooting in reserves.
13. Immediate ban on mulesing.
14. Effective closure of the roo industry?
15. Elimination of the dairy and beef cattle and sheep flock if methane cannot be controlled by other means.
16. Effectively, no new dams.
17. Closing down the coal industry.
18. Closing down the uranium industry.
19. Closing down defence.
‘Boerwar says:
Monday, February 17, 2020 at 5:34 pm
I sincerely hope Bandt announces the following at all his meetings. The truth and nothing but the truth. Farmers will be rushing to, er, shake his hands, pat him on the head and tell him what wonderful things the Greens will do for rural and regional economies. The Greens Movement will take rural and regional electorates by storm. They will probably put up statues of ‘Bandt of the Inland’. Someone will win a Golden Guitar Award for the “Ballad of Badlands Bandt’. The story about how the Greens destroyed all things economic west of the Divide.
Boerwar
No need for Bandt they are hard at work destroying their environment and economy all by themselves. No need for any scary Green’s eeeevil plans, they are happy as it is shitting in their own nest. Let ‘er rip and and sit back and feel the schadenfreude from the results.
Bush bards will limn immortal poems about how Bandt, Hero from the Far Distant Inner Urbs, revitalized their towns by closing down all existing employment in beef, dairy, sheep, irrigation, cotton, uranium, coal, rodeos, feedlots, live animal exports, timber, almonds, olives, vines and replaced that employment with barista training and tour guide opportunities in the reserve system which was doubled in size as the bards scribbled their rhymes.
‘poroti says:
Monday, February 17, 2020 at 5:41 pm
Boerwar
. The story about how the Greens destroyed all things economic west of the Divide.
No need for Bandt they are hard at work destroying their environment and economy all by themselves. No need for any scary Green’s eeeevil plans, they are happy as it is shitting in their own nest. Let ‘er rip and and sit back and feel the schadenfreude from the results.’
They are managing to export ag values of $50 billion a year while feeding 25 million people at home. By the time the Greens finish with that, the exports will be down by around half and the regular feeding of 25 million people becomes increasingly iffy.
As for destroyed environments just take a walk down any Inner Urban area. See what environment you can scratch up.Then have a look at what the inner urbs consume and the impact of that consumption. The plain fact of the matter is that the Inner Urbs, globally, are the consumers of that which caused rural and regional environmental destruction.
The Inner Urbs solution is ALWAYS somewhere else and the impact on someone else.
Spot the hypocrisy.