New Hampshire Democratic primary live commentary

Live commentary on today’s New Hampshire primary. Also: Sinn Féin upsets the conservative duopoly at Saturday’s Irish election. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont

4:05pm Thursday With all precincts reporting, there were almost 297,000 votes in this year’s Democratic primary, up from just over 253,000 in 2016.  So Democratic turnout in New Hampshire was well up on 2016, but this is partly explained by having an uncontested Republican race.

The final outcome is Sanders 25.7%, Buttigieg 24.4%, Klobuchar 19.8%, Warren 9.2% and Biden 8.4%.

8:18pm Conversation article up.  I argue that Klobuchar has a good case for being electable.  She won her three Minnesota Senate races by at least 20 points, far exceeding the presidential lean of Minnesota.  She’s 59, so she doesn’t fall into the 70+ category.

Also, the FiveThirtyEight forecast has the chance that nobody wins a pledged delegate majority up to 33% (one in three).  We could be heading for the first contested convention since 1952.  The next two contests are the Feb 22 Nevada caucus and Feb 29 South Carolina primary.  Then it’s Super Tuesday on March 3.

3:05pm Two US TV networks have CALLED the New Hampshire primary for Bernie Sanders.

2:50pm With 82% in, Sanders’ lead over Buttigieg down to 1.7%.  The NY Times Needle gives him a 68% chance to win.  Hardly a convincing victory in a state where he crushed Clinton 60-38 in 2016.

2:22pm Sanders’ lead over Buttigieg down to 2.1% with 69% in.  The NY Times Needle gives Sanders a 59% chance to win.

2:07pm Took a break for lunch, but didn’t miss much.  Sanders 2.5% ahead of Buttigieg with 64% in (26.4% to 23.9%).  Klobuchar has 20.1%, and both Biden and Warren have less than 10%, and will both miss the 15% threshold to win any NH delegates.

1:02pm CNN has Sanders still ahead in NH by 4.4% over Buttigieg with 41% in.

1pm The NY Times needle is now giving Sanders just a 53% chance to win, with 33% for Buttigieg and 14% Klobuchar.  However, Wasserman on Twitter is projecting Klobuchar will finish third.

12:47pm The NY Times needle is giving Sanders a 59% chance of winning, with Buttigieg a 33% chance and Klobuchar 8%.  But for some reason, CNN’s results are more up to date than the NY Times.

12:37pm With 32% in in the Dem primary, 27.8% Sanders, 23.5% Buttigieg, 20.0% Klobuchar.  Gap opening up between Buttigieg and Klobuchar for 2nd place.  Warren and Biden still at less than 10%.

12:35pm In the Republican primary, Trump has 85%.

12:25pm Dave Wasserman on Twitter

12:17pm 28% Sanders, 23% Buttigieg, 21% Klobuchar with 20% in on the CNN results.

12:12pm 28% Sanders, 22.5% Buttigieg, 20.5% Klobuchar, less than 10% for both Warren and Biden in CNN results with 17% in.

12:05pm CNN is back ahead of the NY Times, and has 28% Sanders, 22% Buttigieg, 20% Klobuchar, 9% Warren, 9% Biden with 14% in.

12pm With 7% in, 28% Sanders, 22% Buttigieg, 20% Klobuchar, 12% Warren, 7.5% Biden.  US election analysts on Twitter are saying Sanders should win.

11:50am With 5% reporting, the NY Times has 30% Sanders, 22% Buttigieg, 18% Klobuchar, 12% Warren and just 7% Biden.

11:40am The CNN New Hampshire results give Sanders 27%, Klobuchar 22%, Buttigieg 21%, Warren just 11% and Biden 8%.  That’s with an estimated 3% in.  So Klobuchar has had a massive surge in New Hampshire.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The final RealClearPolitics poll average for today’s New Hampshire Democratic primary gives Bernie Sanders 28.7%, Pete Buttigieg 21.3%, Amy Klobuchar 11.7%, and Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren both 11.0%. Most polls close at 11am AEDT, with some staying open until 12pm. Unlike Iowa, New Hampshire is a primary, not a caucus. Primaries are administered by the state’s election authorities, not by a party. Counting is slow in New Hampshire.

 Sinn Féin comes first in Irish election

 Irish politics has been dominated by two conservative parties: Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. But at Saturday’s election, the far-left Sinn Féin upset this order by coming first on first preferences with 24.5% (up a massive 10.7% since the 2016 election). Fianna Fáil was second with 22.2% (down 2.1%) and the governing Fine Gael third with 20.9% (down 4.7%). The Greens won 7.1% (up 4.4%). Irish Labour has never been a strong party, and won just 4.4% (down 2.2%).

While Sinn Féin advocates a united Ireland, its success at this election appears to be the result of a campaign focused on homelessness and hospital waiting lists.

Despite winning the popular vote, Sinn Féin was second in lower house seats with 37 of the 160 (up 14). Fianna Fáil won 38 (down six), Fine Gael 35 (down 14), the Greens 12 (up ten), other left-wing parties 17 (up one) and independents 19 (steady). There were two more total seats than in 2016. A Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael grand coalition would have 73 seats, short of the 81 needed for a majority. Government formation is likely to be difficult.

In Tasmania’s Hare-Clark system, which is used in Ireland, leakage from within parties has occasionally cost seats. In Ireland, leakage is a bigger problem, as the ballot paper lists candidates alphabetically, not by party grouping (see Antony Green). To reduce leakage, Sinn Féin only nominated 42 candidates, and were unable to benefit as much as they should have from their late campaign surge.

Previous Irish elections have been held during the working week, but this one was on Saturday. Turnout was expected to increase, but it actually fell 2.2% to 62.9%.

610 comments on “New Hampshire Democratic primary live commentary”

  1. Firefox @ #348 Tuesday, February 18th, 2020 – 7:40 am

    Really? You don’t see how women in his employ would have found a joke like that to be off?

    I can see at least a couple of reasons for how anyone in his employ, regardless of gender, could have found the salesman joke to be off. It’s 1) overtly sexual and 2) uses an obscenity, which makes it likely offensive to some.

    That’s not the same thing as being misogynist. To be a misogynist joke it would have to convey some sort of demeaning imputation about women. To be a misogynist for telling that joke you’d have to tell it with the intent of offending women rather than the accidental side-effect of offending anyone with delicate sensibilities around sexual overtones and swearing.

    I see no evidence supporting the former case, and Bloomberg has at least plausible deniability in the latter. Crude or not, the joke makes a legitimate point about sales; namely “persistence pays off”. It’s believable that he told it to make that point more than he told it to harass his female employees.

    There’s plenty of room to argue that it’s not an appropriate joke to make in a workplace, but misogynist that particular incident is not.

    /tangent

  2. Two new Nevada polls have just been released. With the usual caviet that these things are generally pretty unreliable (to put it into perspective, turnout in the Nevada Caucus seems to usually be about a tenth of the population of your average Australian electorate, and we all know how hard those are to poll), they have some interesting results. Biden is continuing to plummet, dropping below Buttigieg in one and Klobucher in the other, while Tom Steyer (who is campaigning heavily in Nevada) actually scored a win in the second (albeit at 18%). The oddest is probably Sanders’ results, one has him the winner at 35%, while the other has him in fourth place at 13%.

    That said, with a sample size of only 215 people, the ‘Point Blank Political’ one (which has Steyer on top and Sanders in fourth) should probably be taken with an especially large grain of salt.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nevada_Democratic_caucuses

  3. ar

    To me the joke is misogynistic. It objectifies women and possibly perpetuates the concept of nymphomania. The use of the word ‘gorgeous’ is suspect too. I don’t see why a racist and a person who values a person’s wealth as the supreme indicator of their worth wouldn’t be misogynistic as well. Why even bother with Bloomberg when he’s just Donald Trump with an inflated IQ and bigger bank balance, surely the US can do better than him.

  4. “accidental side-effect of offending anyone with delicate sensibilities around sexual overtones and swearing.”

    ***

    There you go downplaying it and trying to make it out as if someone else is at fault. The old “boys will be boys” excuse doesn’t cut it I’m afraid. Making jokes about going around asking gorgeous girls for sex is not acceptable in the workplace. Full stop.

  5. Poll: Sanders holds 19-point lead in Nevada

    Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) holds a 19-point lead in Nevada, the next state to vote in the 2020 presidential nominating contest, according to a poll released Monday.

    Progressive pollster Data for Progress found the democratic socialist with 35 percent support Nevada ahead of its caucus on Saturday. Clumped behind him are Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former Vice President Joe Biden, with 16 percent, 15 percent and 14 percent support, respectively.

    Twenty-one percent of respondents back other candidates, including 10 percent for philanthropist Tom Steyer and 9 percent for Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.).

    Sanders held an overwhelming advantage among voters under age 45, who backed him at 64 percent, and Hispanic voters, who supported him at 66 percent. No other candidate registered in the double digits for Hispanic support.

    The independent senator also has the highest net favorability rate at 38 percent, with 68 percent having a favorable view of him and 30 percent unfavorable. Warren followed with a 35 percent net favorability rate.

    Sanders won the New Hampshire primary last week and came in a close second to Buttigieg in Iowa the week before.

    Nevada will be the most diverse state for the 2020 candidates so far, so a Sanders win would further solidify him as a front-runner.

    The Data for Progress poll surveyed 766 likely caucus goers between Feb. 12 and 15. The margin of error is 3.4 percentage points.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/483399-sanders-holds-19-point-lead-in-nevada-poll#

  6. Firefox @ #314 Tuesday, February 18th, 2020 – 12:04 pm

    Making jokes about going around asking gorgeous girls for sex is not acceptable in the workplace.

    Yes, I already said there’s plenty of scope for making that case. However ‘unacceptable in the workplace’ and ‘misogynist’ are separate concerns.

    Poll: Sanders holds 19-point lead in Nevada

    What about the other poll that had him on 13%? They can’t both be right.

  7. The fact that we have two polls with such wildly differing outcomes suggests that Nevada will be difficult to get much of a handle on before Saturday and even then, another Iowa-style clusterfuck is not out of the question, such that even the official results don’t tell us much!

    It’s probably the case that Sanders is ahead in Nevada, but not by much. I and others have touched upon his high floor/ low ceiling problem, and it’s probably a reasonable guess to think that he’ll come in around the 25% mark, which will probably be enough for him to claim first prize. The real interest, though, will be in the minor placings. Can Biden get more than 20% of the vote? Will Steyer’s big financial investment start to pay off? Will Buttigieg and Klobuchar go bust or will they surge? Can Warren come back?

    With South Carolina coming a week later, quickly followed by the Super Tuesday votes, it could well be that Nevada itself doesn’t make much of a difference in the end. I still think Klobuchar is one to watch. If she can match her 15-20% NH result in a few upcoming contests (and presumably she’ll win in Minnesota on 3rd March), then she’ll be in good shape to take on the post-Super Tuesday states through March, which are on home ground for her, with Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Missouri, and North Dakota all voting over that month. She’s still a rank outsider at this stage, but no one seems to be actively against her, and she could yet emerge as a compromise candidate.

  8. Two new California polls today. The more recent one gives Sanders 25%, Bloomberg 21%, Biden 15% and Buttigieg 12%. This would result in Sanders and Bloomberg taking the vast majority of California’s delegates given the 15% threshold.

    The other CA poll gives Sanders 32%, Biden 14% and others at 13% or below. Sanders would win the vast majority of CA’s delegates with this poll.

    Nationally, Sanders has about a ten-point lead over Biden and Bloomberg. In a two candidate race against Bloomberg, Sanders crushes by 57-37 according to an NBC/WSJ poll.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/SuperTuesday.html

  9. I’ve written about the recent German political crisis in Thuringia at my personal website, in which the conservative CDU and far-right AfD voted together to give the state presidency to a small pro-business party. This broke the embargo on cooperation with the AfD. It caused the resignation of Merkel’s proposed successor as CDU leader.

    Also covered: the left held one region but lost another at Jan 26 Italian regional elections, and the centre-left retained the Taiwan presidency.

    http://adrianbeaumont.net/german-political-crisis-in-thuringia-and-italian-regional-elections/

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