Wherein we finally wrap up the Call of the Board series, a slowly unfolding state-by-state round-up every seat result from last year’s federal election. Here we tie up the loose ends of the territories, where Labor achieved a clean sweep of five seats – an essentially foregone conclusion for the Australian Capital Territory (which went from two to three seats at this election), but a strong result for them in the Northern Territory (which may be set to lose its second at the next). Previous episodes of the series dealt with Sydney (here and here), regional New South Wales, Melbourne, regional Victoria, south-east Queensland, regional Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia and Tasmania.
Solomon (Labor 3.1%; 3.0% swing to CLP): The always marginal seat that covers Darwin has only gone the way of the winning party once out of the last four elections (in 2013), this time returning Luke Gosling after he gained it for Labor in 2016. Gosling’s 6.0% winning margin off a 7.4% swing in 2016 was the clearest win in the history of a highly marginal seat, the previous record having been Dave Tollner’s 2.8% win for the Country Liberal Party in 2004. This meant he had enough change to record the seat’s second-biggest margin even after a 3.0% swing back to the Country Liberals. As the map to the right illustrates, the pattern of swings in the seat reflected broader themes from the election: the affluent area around the city centre swung to Labor, but the lower-income suburbs of the north went the other way, and the more conservative new suburbia of Palmerston went further still.
Lingiari (Labor 5.5%; 2.7% swing to CLP): Warren Snowdon retained the remainder-of-NT seat of Lingiari, which he has held without interruption since 2001, his closest shave in that time being a 0.9% margin in 2013. The swings in the two Northern Territory seats have been closely matched at the last election, with a 7.5% blowout in Lingiari in 2016 followed by a 2.7% correction this time. There have been occasions in the past where swings varied widely between Alice Springs and Katherine on the one hand and the remote communities in the other, but not this time.
Bean (Labor 7.5%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): The ACT’s new third seat was created entirely from territory that was formerly in the Canberra electorate, whose member Gai Brodtmann did not seek re-election. David Smith, who had previously filled Katy Gallagher’s Senate vacancy when she fell foul of section 44 in May 2018, had no trouble holding Bean for Labor in the face of a slight swing. Left-wing independent Jamie Christie scored a creditable 8.3%, contributing to solid drops on the primary vote for both major parties.
Canberra (Labor 17.1%; 4.1% swing to Labor): The Canberra electorate covers the central third of the capital, and might be regarded as the true “new” seat since it drew territory from both of the previous electorates. Like Darwin, Canberra offered a miniature reflection of national trend in that the city’s inner area moved solidly further to the left, while the suburbs swung to the Liberals. This was reflected in a 4.6% primary vote increase for the Greens, reducing the gap with the Liberals to 27.8% to 23.3%. This is the lowest yet recorded in an ACT seat, but with the Liberal how-to-vote directing preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens, they would probably have remained out of contention if they had made up the difference. With the departure of Gai Brodtmann, its new Labor member is Alicia Payne, who dropped 2.0% on the primary vote to 40.5%.
Fenner (Labor 10.6%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): Labor’s Andrew Leigh suffered a slight swing from similar primary vote numbers to 2016, the main disturbance being the appearance of the United Australia Party with 4.1%.
Climate change…what climate change?
Boerwar @ #1049 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 12:14 pm
How about why they and Labor both seem more interested in fighting each other than the real enemy?
Boerwar @ #1048 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 1:14 pm
Those raw figures show that Labors decision to, amongst other things, support fossil fuels to the detriment of the environment was seen by voters as a stupid decision.
‘bakunin says:
Monday, February 17, 2020 at 10:02 am
Boerwar,
Yawn. Still peddling alt-history to protect your hero PJ Keating.’
I know the actual enviroment is a yawn for the Reds in the Greens. They don’t get it and they don’t care, either.
What part of the environment is fucked and getting worse don’t you understand?
What part of the environment vote being out play politically don’t you understand?
What part of 30 years of ineffectiveness by the Greens don’t you understand?
Boerwar @ #1053 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 1:19 pm
What part of Labor not having a political clue don’t you understand.
Rex you just go on enjoying the consequences of the fact that the Greens are in bed with the Coalition.
Same same. Austria. Northern Territory. Di Natale’s admissions. Bandt’s support for the racist, religious nutter freak show frackers in the NT.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/02/15/call-board-territories/comment-page-21/#comment-3343138
I worked on the quaint island off the coast of Europe, back when Thatcher of pollyTICs, not him of Burmah Oil, or the son and West Asian arms deals was still around, just after uni.
Our home was a rental with many languages in Pimlico near Victoria Station, house next door had a Ferrari or something, ours had water down the walls.
Useful because the facilities …
First time I saw many homeless, including outside the Savoy on the Strand.
Many strikes, as in Murdoch Entertainment printing out to Wapping in Docklands, no public transport and by then I shared in the safest part of London/ Irish Kilburn, many days of walking down Edgware Road into work, seeing ads for flying to Europe …
Then again, she got climate change and insurance.
Turns out to have been good training for Tonicchio/ Fizza/ Shouty Mchappyclap on a foundation of Bronte slogan bogan trying to take one former colony back through the Enlightenment, applaud 1788, through the Dark Ages to when dinosaurs roamed, Sydney transport … a generation on.
Rex Douglas @ #1053 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 10:19 am
Bullshit!!!
They simply show that for a variety of reasons more voters have moved to the Right.
I see GM is dropping the Holden brand altogether. Peter Brock must rolling in his grave, but not this guy still on the public teat
Boerwar @ #1055 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 1:21 pm
You just go on cheering Joel and his OTIS Group while they’re pre-occupied with undermining another leader instead of them beating Bandt to the punch on Green jobs.
Labor without a clue…
Hey, Rex Douglas! How about the NT Greens supporting Fossil Fuel-loving parties with their preferences! Makes you proud to support The Greens, huh?
Oh wait, you’re too busy pretending The Greens are as pure as the driven snow and Labor is the problem.
Yeah nah. Your besties put their foot right in it yesterday. I don’t know how you can continue to support The Greens!?! You must be truly ashamed of their behaviour.
You are, aren’t you?
Rex your NT mates are preferencing racist religous LGBTIQ hating frackers.
Your ignoble bastard of a hypocritical leader is sooling them on.
The Holden brand will disappear at the end of the year after its owner General Motors (GM) announced it will no longer make cars suitable for Australian roads.
The move comes just three years after local manufacturing ended with the shuttering of the Holden plant at Elizabeth in Adelaide’s northern suburbs.
Late last year the company also announced it would stop selling its most iconic car, the Commodore.
GM announced on Monday it would stop producing right hand drive vehicles.
I heard the Greens were preferencing Labor last …?
RI @ #1031 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 12:19 pm
The same 538 that gave Clinton 71.4% chance of winning against Trump? No thanks.
Our old pal Mumbles gets published in the Canberra Times, and expresses disappointment in Morrison…
“As it is, after a brief Christmas hiatus from muscular scepticism, with even Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack conceding “absolutely” that more must be done to tackle climate change, the monster is back. Nationals sceptics are out and proud again, demanding that more, not less, coal must be set ablaze. The new Resources Minister, Keith Pitt, has rolled out the chestnut that he accepts the science but “the climate has always changed”, as if that’s supposed to provide comfort.
Barnaby Joyce, commencing the standard two-round demolition of his leader, is barely bothering to hide plans to finish him off, rolling his eyes at McCormack in Parliament.
The rebellion inside the junior party coincides with Morrison’s much-diminished stature, but it’s not a coincidence. The terrible summer created the political environment – though, irony of ironies, it threatens to drag the government further to the right on climate change.
So here we go again? Another shrivelled prime ministership, the latest in the 11-year series since the onset of the global financial crisis? Is it just a matter of time before Peter Dutton strikes again (and the party baulks at him again and chooses a compromise candidate)?
Morrison will always have May 18, 2019, and the “he knows how to win an election” meme will keep him secure. But only up to a point. Nothing is certain – except that he’s wasted his opportunity to put his stamp on the government.“
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6632817/scott-morrison-is-walking-wounded/?cs=14246
When John Lyon was talking about the AFP raid, he made two point in particular that I found interesting.
1. The ALP persons were armed. When the ABC stood politely back and allowed them to enter, that was translated by AFP as “they invited us in and were happy to have us there.” Did the AFP expect a gunfight?
2. As the officers were perusing the computer docs in order to select the relevant ones to print, they rejected many names as of no interest, or “not him”. What criteria were being used? Did that mean they were already very familiar with politics of staff and journos?
Mavis @ #1647 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 11:54 am
The un-peered reviewed, as yet unpublished (and unpublishable outside China) Xiao “paper” on which this bullshit News Corpse article is based is specious speculative crap with no data other than a couple of jealous physicists getting hysterical. It’s another example of sub-pseudo-science political gossip used as grist for the Fear Industry. Boycott News Corpse.
Boerwar @ #1062 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 12:33 pm
So first preference to the normal frackers then?
If you had a choice of preferencing:
1. Frackers who are not racists
2.Frackers who are proven racists
Who would you choose? Answer must be binary.
It’s Time @ #1069 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 1:42 pm
Nah. Didn’t you get The Greens’ memo? They are to be put last behind the racist religious LGBTIQ-hating farckers. Do keep up. 😐
sprocket_ @ #1070 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 1:44 pm
Obviously, Its Time, Rex Douglas, Quoll, Firefox, nath, P1, but not Pegasus, after much prodding, would prefer number 2.
Hockey dared them and they just fucked him off. It was inevitable they would want nothing to do with Australia.
sprocket_ @ #1070 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 12:44 pm
Not that all frackers are created equally, either. You have to imagine that the Libs would even more cravenly pursue a pro-fracking agenda, entirely beholden to corporate profits as they are. So more like:
1. Frackers who are not racists and may oppose at least the worst instances of fracking
2.Frackers who are proven racists and will allow fracking anywhere and everywhere it makes money
[The ALP persons were armed]
Well that is one way of boosting the primary vote.
lizzie @ #1633 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 11:11 am
Scummo from Marketing is visibly panicking. His PPM rating must be further in the septic than the last Newspoll. Wonder if that’s just the internals, or whether that’s why NP didn’t appear last night. The Murdorcs are restless.
Another day another financial scandal. This one also a “government decision” to give money to a now closed institution. Would have been cheaper to just give the $400K to the families and tell them to look after their aged relatives as best they could.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/17/unprecedented-400k-grant-given-to-aged-care-home-operator-in-nationals-electorate
With Bridget from Money Laundering no longer answering questions who will explain this one away? Will it be Josh from Loan Sharking, Matthias from Assassinations, or Greg from First Aid?
Note that that is “more likely than any particular candidate having a majority of delegates”, but still less likely than some candidate having a majority.
It is an error to treat a 70% probability as “certain”. It’s nothing like that – it’s saying that in 3 in 10 times with the same data you’d expect to see the other result occurring. In Texas Hold’em terms, it’s saying Trumps chances were like holding a set on the flop and improving to a full house by the river.
People complain about the same thing when the BOM gives a 70% chance of rain and then it doesn’t rain.
Murdoch will make sure it will be all be hunky dory and Smoko will be a hero in 2022.
The Nevada primary voting paper..
Unsurprisingly, another exaggerated claim; I was not prodded much at all.
Re-posting…
Global warming is an existential threat. Fracking contributes to that. In this reality and context, using the only political leverage you have during an inconsequential by election, to send a message to the majority state government with the ability to reverse its lifting of a fracking moratorium, can be viewed as legitimate.
————-
Re-posting
Lock the Gate Alliance
SLIPPERY BUSINESS: Serious concerns over ‘excluded from scope’ oil fracking plans in NT
https://www.lockthegate.org.au/slippery_business_serious_concerns_over_excluded_from_scope_oil_fracking_plans_in_nt
Lock the Gate Alliance has condemned plans by resource companies, including Origin Energy, to frack for oil in the Northern Territory’s Beetaloo Basin, when the risks of shale oil fracking have not been considered.
Jesse Hancock, part of the Lock the Gate network in Alice Springs, said the scope of the Pepper Inquiry, used by the NT Government to justify removing the fracking moratorium last year, did not specifically include what’s being described by companies as “liquids rich gas”.*
“Fracking companies can call it by any name they want but it’s shale oil, and oil presents a much greater risk to communities, especially in terms of transportation,” Mr Hancock said.
“This is a case of resource companies and the NT Gunner Government pulling the wool over the eyes of NT residents.
“Communities at the frontline of this activity in the Beetaloo Basin – in the heart of the NT – are rightfully anxious about what this latest development means for them.
“Ultimately, the Pepper Inquiry found that people in the NT are overwhelming opposed to fracking for gas, but now companies want to pursue the even riskier practice of fracking for oil.
“We can’t trust the gas and oil-loving Gunner Government – it has behaved in total contradiction to what it has said about transparency. This latest development is yet another betrayal.”
There has been strong community action opposed to fracking in the NT since the moratorium was removed last year, including a territory wide day of action, and the Frack Finding Tour, which transported a busload of Traditional Owners, farmers, and tourism operators to Canberra to lobby federal politicians last year.
“Even Labor Party members do not want fracking in the Territory,” Mr Hancock said.
“Last year at the Labor Party conference Labor members pushed back against the approval of fracking in the NT, and in Victoria, that state’s Labor Government has enshrined its fracking moratorium into its constitution.
“Why are Territorians being treated like second class citizens, with a government allowing fracking companies to run roughshod over communities?”
See page 10 of the NT Pepper Inquiry final report, stating: Excluded from its scope is coal seam gas (CSG), sandstone (or ‘tight’) gas and shale oil.
https://frackinginquiry.nt.gov.au/inquiry-reports?a=494286
If only it was as easy as this to wind up misuse of public funds in the Morrison government.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/17/holden-brand-to-be-axed-after-general-motors-announces-it-will-exit-australian-market
Arguably this is Abbott and Hockey’s only reform achievement in office.
Ben Chifley with the first Holden car.
Mortally wounded by Abbott/Hockey, and finally bayoneted by Scott Morrison
C@tmomma @ #1072 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 12:48 pm
C@t, you have no idea how I vote so STFU.
steve davis @ #1079 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 2:04 pm
We must be reading the same tea leaves.
Remember the car industry died because Sophie Mirabella, the then Shadow Minister, told them they had no future under a Liberal government.
It’s amazing what a free pass the press gave her. She announced she was going to meet with the industry, she met with them, then they pulled the plug.
To my knowledge, no journalist ever joined the dots.
The Liberals then pretended – for about six months – that they had no industry policy because Mirabella had not been re elected.
Again, the media swallowed this explanation – one that doesn’t stand up to the slightest bit of scrutiny.
Sprocket
I was going to jokingly ask why Al Gore’s name was not on the form. His time has passed, though I note he is younger than Biden, Sanders, Bloomberg, Trump and the same age as Warren.
I could live with Sanders being the candidate (not Bloomberg, who is just the left leaning bit of the ancient Regime), but am increasingly warming to Buttigeig and Klobuchar. They are not as experienced as a bunch of septaugenarians, but they are not niaive either. And they are much better speakers and media performers.
peg
It’s an article written by people with vested interests.
I have a bit of a bugbear about organisations which are set up with one purpose. It’s in their interests to keep the one issue going, no matter what. You end up with ridiculous situations – I’m thinking back to my council days, here , not this specific instance – where every box they’ve put forward gets ticked and then they HAVE to find another one, just to keep operating…
Anyway, as a repeated post, and it really doesn’t add much to the conversation.
Apparently 600 GM jobs lost in Australia, with redundancies to cost $1b.
Sprocket
“Apparently 600 GM jobs lost in Australia, with redundancies to cost $1b.”
Would that be more or less than the total number of ministerial and political staffers in Canberra?
I responded to a couple of egregious comments from BW, implying I support a racist party. As if I would.
BW
“Peg
I really cannot understand why you, personally, are supporting the Greens’s support for racist parties. These guys don’t just talk about racism. They destroy Indigenous communities. They destroy Indigenous lives. They destroy Indigenous culture. It is their bread and butter baseline ideology.”
———
to which I said
Point to one post of mine where I have said I *personally* support NT Greens action.
I understand the local circumstances why the decision was made. Understanding it, does not mean I support the decision. If I was in that local branch I would have argued against doing so. If I was now voting in the by election I would put Labor above CLP.
Is that clear enough for you.
—————–
I also posted:
Ten years on, it’s time we learned the lessons from the failed Northern Territory Intervention
https://theconversation.com/ten-years-on-its-time-we-learned-the-lessons-from-the-failed-northern-territory-intervention-79198
and
Greens criticise ‘racist’ bills for NT intervention
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2007-08-07/greens-criticise-racist-bills-for-nt-intervention/2523586
————–
The Greens called out the racist NT intervention in 2007 and have consistently never stopped highlighting its racist basis, as well as other issues such as the Basics Card and subsequent cashless welfare cards.
The Greens have never been in government in the NT. Successive state governments of both major stripes are responsible for the policies and policy agenda of the past and present, ditto at the federal level.
‘See page 10 of the NT Pepper Inquiry final report, stating: Excluded from its scope is coal seam gas (CSG), sandstone (or ‘tight’) gas and shale oil.’
Which suggests the report did not make recommendations about wholesale fracking, but fracking in specific circumstances -suggesting forms of fracking which were seen as lower risk.
Over half an hour spent by ABC on Holden tears. Now a Minister on the government’s disappointment. I’ve already forgotten her name.
It’s Time @ #1084 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 2:20 pm
Charming.
I guess, if you want to be secretive about it, that’s your call. 😐
lizzie @ #1093 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 2:32 pm
What!?! The Coalition were the ones who told them to naff off!
ABC judgment challenging the validity of the warrant (not sure where privilege over documents issues are).
http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/FCA//2020/133.html
Long and not very interesting.
The history tells of attempts by AFP to reach agreement with ABC for documents etc leading up to raid.
The raid itself which was not very raidy (and the form of execution of the warrant was not part of the legal challenge).
The immediate effect of the raid has been diminished by McBride telling everyone he leaked the documents.
NT Greens to snub Labor over fracking policy, preferencing conservatives in Johnston by-election
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-17/nt-greens-preference-conservatives-ahead-of-labor-in-johnston/11970822
There’s something for everyone in this article. Times have changed as it does not misrepresent the Greens position and reasons for its recommended voting preferences.
What if Holden had been owned by the fossil fuel industry?What a different tune the Lib scum would have sung.
Hockey dared them and they just fucked him off. It was inevitable they would want nothing to do with Australia.
_____
For the last six months the writing has been on the wall. Holdens was offering a range of quite shitty products with nothing on the horizon.