Call of the board: the territories

Zooming in on the federal election results for the three seats of the Australian Capital Territory and the two of the Northern Territory, all of which were won by Labor.

Wherein we finally wrap up the Call of the Board series, a slowly unfolding state-by-state round-up every seat result from last year’s federal election. Here we tie up the loose ends of the territories, where Labor achieved a clean sweep of five seats – an essentially foregone conclusion for the Australian Capital Territory (which went from two to three seats at this election), but a strong result for them in the Northern Territory (which may be set to lose its second at the next). Previous episodes of the series dealt with Sydney (here and here), regional New South Wales, Melbourne, regional Victoria, south-east Queensland, regional Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia and Tasmania.

Solomon (Labor 3.1%; 3.0% swing to CLP): The always marginal seat that covers Darwin has only gone the way of the winning party once out of the last four elections (in 2013), this time returning Luke Gosling after he gained it for Labor in 2016. Gosling’s 6.0% winning margin off a 7.4% swing in 2016 was the clearest win in the history of a highly marginal seat, the previous record having been Dave Tollner’s 2.8% win for the Country Liberal Party in 2004. This meant he had enough change to record the seat’s second-biggest margin even after a 3.0% swing back to the Country Liberals. As the map to the right illustrates, the pattern of swings in the seat reflected broader themes from the election: the affluent area around the city centre swung to Labor, but the lower-income suburbs of the north went the other way, and the more conservative new suburbia of Palmerston went further still.

Lingiari (Labor 5.5%; 2.7% swing to CLP): Warren Snowdon retained the remainder-of-NT seat of Lingiari, which he has held without interruption since 2001, his closest shave in that time being a 0.9% margin in 2013. The swings in the two Northern Territory seats have been closely matched at the last election, with a 7.5% blowout in Lingiari in 2016 followed by a 2.7% correction this time. There have been occasions in the past where swings varied widely between Alice Springs and Katherine on the one hand and the remote communities in the other, but not this time.

Bean (Labor 7.5%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): The ACT’s new third seat was created entirely from territory that was formerly in the Canberra electorate, whose member Gai Brodtmann did not seek re-election. David Smith, who had previously filled Katy Gallagher’s Senate vacancy when she fell foul of section 44 in May 2018, had no trouble holding Bean for Labor in the face of a slight swing. Left-wing independent Jamie Christie scored a creditable 8.3%, contributing to solid drops on the primary vote for both major parties.

Canberra (Labor 17.1%; 4.1% swing to Labor): The Canberra electorate covers the central third of the capital, and might be regarded as the true “new” seat since it drew territory from both of the previous electorates. Like Darwin, Canberra offered a miniature reflection of national trend in that the city’s inner area moved solidly further to the left, while the suburbs swung to the Liberals. This was reflected in a 4.6% primary vote increase for the Greens, reducing the gap with the Liberals to 27.8% to 23.3%. This is the lowest yet recorded in an ACT seat, but with the Liberal how-to-vote directing preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens, they would probably have remained out of contention if they had made up the difference. With the departure of Gai Brodtmann, its new Labor member is Alicia Payne, who dropped 2.0% on the primary vote to 40.5%.

Fenner (Labor 10.6%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): Labor’s Andrew Leigh suffered a slight swing from similar primary vote numbers to 2016, the main disturbance being the appearance of the United Australia Party with 4.1%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,398 comments on “Call of the board: the territories”

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  1. Barney in Tanjung Bunga
    says:
    Monday, February 17, 2020 at 10:23 am
    nath
    I would’ve much preferred to have FTTH to everyone instead of half a dozen submarines.
    When was it ever an either/or decision?
    _______________________
    stupid comment.

  4. Nath,
    Your linked graph shows Australia with 15% FttH penetration, USA 12% and Canada 11%

    But NBNCo have speed limited FttH so that it’s the same as their other, very crappy, technologies.
    And they are truly awful.
    FttN is so bad they often can’t even reach the low bar set by the Gov’t.
    HFC ( old FOXTEL and Optus cable) have far too many subscribers per section (keep lid on costs).
    Wireless and satellite are also poor.
    In USA they have better implementations of their cable technologies.

    FttH is easily capable of 1000+ Mbps. It just requires upgrade of the equipment at each end.
    NBNCo would not do this because it would make it clear to even the thickest LNP voter that they were sold a pup with FttN.
    So they hobble the better technologies.

  7. “Being not-for-profit is a misnomer because the entity still needs to be cash flow positive or it will eventually run out of money. Some people assume not-for-profits are not focused on being profitable when in reality the not-for-profit does focus on generating profits for itself instead.”

    Indeed. I became treasurer of a community-based incorporated NFP that was perilously close to becoming financially unviable. My first task was to convince the committee/executive of the need to widen its customer base. By presenting financial analyses, both historical and future projections, something that had never been done before, the organisation changed direction. Today it is thriving and financially secure.

  9. I’ve been on the phone and in the background I can hear Scotty From Marketing telling us how good he is. If you have a go, you’ll get a go.

    Has anyone else noticed that everything he wants to do, he says it was a promise before the election and people voted for it?

  13. If Scotty was out of contact for a few days this weekend, I think he’s been praying himself into confidence. I have never heard such a rush of self-congratulation.

  15. https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/02/15/call-board-territories/comment-page-21/#comment-3343087

    nbn/ Nbnco largely runs contrary to longstanding OECD policy advice for regulatory reform (like maximum prices and minimum service levels, MTBF and MTTR included), competition for infrastructure – if not in beyond regional – and services, besides neutrality of technology.
    Its rollout seemed to prioritise high density/ high revenue areas, rather than broadband blackspots.
    There was also the whole off budget thing, Godzilla-ing in 2009, or MTM-ing from 2013.

    And it came off the back of the cancellation of Opel Networks’ DSL/ WiMAX of 2007, no to the Telstra FTTN of 2005, privatisation of a vertically-integrated Telecom/ OTC from 1997, offloading of Aussat with more than 3 times debt over equity back in 1991 on to a start-up Optus …

    It needs to be benchmarked against, say, the Netherlands (serviceco, telco, mobileco, cableco competition, Wi-Fi at transport hubs, DVB-S/T/C competition), Singapore (high density, separation in the stack), New Zealand (Spark/ Chorus, tenders by region), France (competition in metro, subsidies elsewhere), Canada (vast country, small population).
    PollyTICs taken out of it, Comms/ ACCC/ Infra Aus into it.
    Chances are it needs to be broken up and pieces flog[ged, unlikely without an asset revaluation to about half of what went into it if I read some investors or big 4 accounting firm right] to return competition to extended metro. (As in service taxpayer loan and provide a risk-adjusted return on equity.)
    Holistic regional development approach followed for regional and beyond.
    Of course premises not getting a wired 50/ 20 Mbps or wireless 25/ 5 Mbps without issues need prioritisation.

    … Nbnco did shared 2.5GPON FTTP with x number of premises off one of their hubs, for a wholesale up to superfast 100/ 40 Mbps residential service.
    Depending on the modelling they did, browsing/ emailing/ calling vs gaming/ streaming, well it isn’t direct 10G/ NG or PON2 FTTP, it would have been unlikely without upgrade[s] to go ultrafast/ Gbps.
    Though obviously an upgrade to fibre would start with more headroom, newer technology etc than fibre copper, HFC, etc.

    Across the street, different suburb, has Nbnco, our side of the street seems to be mainly SingTel Optus HFC, Telstra HFC/ DSL and wireless still.
    Apparently we’ll be passed, RFS, RTC from 22 Mar 2020. Let’s see what 4/ 5G looks like 18 months on, or even one of them newish LEO satellite constellations.
    Presently we already have (over Wi-Fi) 100/ 5 Mbps and it generally does better than that, 2 to 6 adults, Netflix/ Prime and all, with decent jitter and latency, so yawn.
    Though we have noticed degradation in service since Nbnco came to the area, regularly seeing white van people before Telstra vans.

  16. Maude Lynne @ #1003 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 9:55 am

    But NBNCo have speed limited FttH so that it’s the same as their other, very crappy, technologies.

    Not exactly. Especially if you’re talking about the actual speeds of FTTN/HFC versus actual speeds on FTTH.

    If you pay for a 100/40 FTTH plan, you’ll get 100/40 (less protocol overheads of ~3%). If you pay for 100/40 on FTTN or HFC you may get what you ordered (or close to it) or you may struggle to even get 25/5 levels of performance.

    FttH is easily capable of 1000+ Mbps. It just requires upgrade of the equipment at each end.

    If you have NBN FTTH the installed hardware is good for 1000Mbps right now with no upgrades. Upgrading the GPON to second-gen hardware brings that up to 10,000Mbps.

    The reason you don’t see many plans offered above 100/40 is because of NBNCo’s atrocious CVC priving model. Makes it very hard for an ISP to offer higher-speed plans that are actually affordable.

    Though there’s nothing about the hardware that prevents it (for FTTH users). You can even order the faster plans right now if you want. AussieBB will sell you a 250Mbps personal plan if you’re on NBN fibre ($170/month), or a 1000Mbps plan if you’re on NBN fibre and willing to be billed as a business ($lots/month).

  17. Boerwar,

    The last time Labor won office with a majority of the vote in its own right was in 1943.
    Labor PV was 50.20%.
    In 1954 Labor won 50.07% PV but lost that election.

    Since 1954 Labor have polled above 49% PV three times. 1972, 1974 and 1983.
    Even with the most popular Labor leaders of the past 60 years Labor was unable to command a majority of the vote.

    Labor HOR PV
    1961: 47.90%
    1963: 45.47%
    1966: 39.98%
    1969: 46.95%
    1972: 49.59%
    1974: 49.30%
    1975: 42.84%
    1977: 39.65%
    1980: 45.15%
    1983: 49.48% (Democrats 5.03%)
    1984: 47.55% (Democrats 5.45%)
    1987: 45.90% (Democrats 6.00%)
    1990: 39.44% ( Dems 11.26%, State based Greens 1.26%)
    1993: 44.92% ( Dems 3.75%, Aus Greens 1.76%)
    1996: 38.75% ( Dems 6.76%, Aus Greens 2.92%)
    1998: 40.10% (Dems 5.13%, Aus Greens 2.62%)
    2001: 37.84% ( Dems 5.41%, Aus Greens 4.96%) <- Labor capitulates on Tampa
    2004: 37.63% (Dems 1.24%, Aus Greens 7.19%) <- Decline of the Democrats
    2007: 43.38% (Dems 0.72%, Aus Greens 7.79%)
    2010: 37.99% (Aus Greens 11.76%) <- Protest vote against Shorten and the Knifebearers.
    2013: 33.38% (Aus Greens 8.65%)
    2016: 34.73% (Aus Greens 10.23%)
    2019: 33.34% (Au Greens 10.40%)

    Effectively Labor has been reliant on environmental preferences flowing from minor parties since 1966. Since 1984 Labor has been unable to win office without preferences from the environment movement. In 1990 the only thing that saved Labor from certain defeat was preferences from environment minor parties.

    The question of those who have been duped by Boer's alt-facts and alt-history need to ask themselves is "Why did Labor and the environment movement manage to work together under Hawke between 1983 and 1991 year, only to have cooperation and progress cease once Keating became PM?".

    And also consider that despite The Greens apparently have the environment vote "locked up" Greens polled 1.26% (1990) and 1.76% (1993) in HOR.

    Or does Boerwar mean "the greens" in the same sense as Peter Walsh – Environmental NGOs, Democrats *and* The Greens? Democrats had been a feature of the electoral landscape since 1977. Democrats preferences had helped elect Hawke Labor at the 1983, 1984, 1987 and 1990 elections – the golden age of environmental progress. Yet with the elevation of Keating Labor was suddenly and inexplicably unable to act because the environment vote was locked up.

  19. BK

    “We’re a government that gets things done.”

    This is pure sales talk. Take the worst thing about your product and sell that to your customer, and everything else is up!!

  20. BK
    “I just came i and heard the end of Morrison’s presser. He must have still been high from yesterday’s Hillsonging!”

    Was he still speaking in tongues?

  21. bakunin @ #1017 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 8:36 am

    …

    Effectively Labor has been reliant on environmental preferences flowing from minor parties since 1966. Since 1984 Labor has been unable to win office without preferences from the environment movement. In 1990 the only thing that saved Labor from certain defeat was preferences from environment minor parties.

    …

    As soon as you start talking about preferences flowing from Parties and not voters, you’re talking shit, especially when you are talking about Green voters.

  24. The two things that stand out in that data.

    On that trend the ALP will be polling in the 20s by 2030 and support for the major left minor party has doubled since 1983.

  25. the standoff continues in the royal people’s republic of canadia. eleven (11) days, still no trains: no freight services, no transcontinental passenger services, no toronto-ottawa-montreal commuter services.

    i’m not surprised that an eleven day old crisis, in a country comparable to australia, featuring sovereign first nations people with land rights, pushing back against a multibillion dollar resource project & using extinction rebellion tactics, gets no mention in australian media.

    from cbc (trigger warning: remarks of a greens mp are quoted here without excoriating him) :-

    > As rallies spring up across Canada to support Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs fighting the Coastal GasLink pipeline in northern B.C., an increasing number of people are wondering: Why doesn’t the company use an alternate route to avoid opposition?
    Former NDP MP Nathan Cullen raised the idea several times when he was still an elected representative for the region. More recently, Green Party MP Paul Manly returned from a January visit to the region with the idea — one he said came from the hereditary chiefs themselves.
    “The Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs provided alternative routes to Coastal GasLink that would have been acceptable to them as a pipeline corridor,” he said in a statement last month. “Coastal GasLink decided that it did not want to take those acceptable options and instead insisted on a route that drives the pipeline through ecologically pristine and culturally important areas.”

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/wetsuweten-coastal-gaslink-pipeline-alternative-path-1.5464945

    https://www.greenparty.ca/en/media-release/2020-01-21/green-party-calls-trudeau-and-horgan-respect-wet%E2%80%99suwet%E2%80%99en-rights

    https://twitter.com/search?q=coastal%20gaslink%20alternate%20until%3A2020-02-14%20since%3A2020-02-01&src=typed_query&f=live
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-cabinet-rail-blockades-1.5465966

    note : cbc is allowing comments on indigenous affairs articles for the first time in 2 years.
    -a.v.

  26. So yeah still on a high after watching that amazing Fire Fight Australia concert yesterday.

    In hindsight I should have been there , but it was an awesome coverage from Channel V.

    The generosity of people to give their time, talent and money to help others gives me hope.

    We just need to take a bit more considered time at the ballot box in order to get the best representation for our society as a whole.

  29. Richter seems to be the go-to counsel for the Catholic Church in child sexual abuse matters:

    [‘Cardinal Pell’s lawyer hired to represent coach

    Robert Richter QC, the formidable barrister who represented Cardinal George Pell at trial, was hired to defend Kehoe, and cross-examined Paris for two days.’]

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-17/st-kevins-college-supported-sex-offender-over-student-victim/11957510

    That poor kid, subjected to cross-examination for two days.

  30. 2013: 33.38% (Aus Greens 8.65%)
    2016: 34.73% (Aus Greens 10.23%)
    2019: 33.34% (Au Greens 10.40%)

    Those raw figures have completely taken the wind out of Labors sails leaving them floating lost at sea with no direction and no Captain.

  32. Mexicanbeemer @ #1024 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 8:55 am

    The two things that stand out in that data.

    On that trend the ALP will be polling in the 20s by 2030 and support for the major left minor party has doubled since 1983.

    The last 3 elections seem to highlight the impact of the RWFW Parties.

    At the moment the solid Left vote stands in the low 40% range.

    It would seem this needs to be around 45% for Labor to form a Government.

  33. The dysfunction on the non-LNP wing of Australian politics is very obvious. Unless and until the Greens stop trying to disable and defeat Labor, the LNP will continue to win elections. The single best thing that could happen in Australian politics would be the dissolution of the Greens.

  35. The last 3 elections seem to highlight the impact of the RWFW Parties

    Seems Labor has decided if you can’t beat ’em then join ’em …?

  38. @NewtonMark
    ·
    5m
    We have more unemployed Australians than job openings; But when there’s a new demand for labour, the Commonwealth opens the floodgates to backpackers. Cool and normal.

  39. GetUp would do well to be out in the field now recruiting a progressive Independent to run against every member of Joels OTIS Group in 2022.

  40. Rex Douglas @ #1037 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 9:36 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1035 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 12:31 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1035 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 9:29 am

    The last 3 elections seem to highlight the impact of the RWFW Parties

    Seems Labor has decided if you can’t beat ’em then join ’em …?

    You really are a superficial idiot!

    No that would describe Joel and his OTIS Group brainiacs and their supporters.

    More superficial “analysis”.

    By the way, you seem to be doing your best supporting them with your posts.

  43. Barney in Tanjung Bunga

    Nah, backpackers are less likely to complain about shit conditions and exploitation.

    Even more so are the ‘temporary” migrants under various visa schemes as many have a long term aim of permanent residency etc. Heads down bum up and don’t complain is the required position to take in order to maintain work with your ‘sponsor” .

  44. Barney
    Depends on the industry. Not all visa related roles are low pay with professional industries liking their foreign workers mostly British because they bring a certain image they believe suits their clients.

  45. A good government would use the catastrophe to link the unemployed with the regions, fast track free training and skills, facilitate free transport and assisted accommodation etc…use it as an opportunity for everyone to help rebuild.
    Na, call in the backpackers and leave it to charity.

  46. Just on the NBN

    Turnbull consistently fobbed off journalists telling them that his scheme would be “a quarter to a third the cost”.

    In reality its the same cost and its temporary.

    The whole point was to build something that would pay for itself several times over and do whatever we asked of it for 50 years.

    Instead we have something that will have to be scrapped and replaced long before it can recover capital.

    This was never a case of NBN or something else. It was a case of sound investment (fibre) versus pissing tens of billions up against the wall (FTTN).

  47. Cud Chewer says:
    Monday, February 17, 2020 at 1:06 pm

    In reality its the same cost
    _____________
    Do you have any evidence for this?

  49. ‘Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, February 17, 2020 at 12:19 pm

    2013: 33.38% (Aus Greens 8.65%)
    2016: 34.73% (Aus Greens 10.23%)
    2019: 33.34% (Au Greens 10.40%)

    Those raw figures have completely taken the wind out of Labors sails leaving them floating lost at sea with no direction and no Captain.’

    Those raw figures show why we are ‘enjoying’ 9 years of Coalition Government.
    Why the Greens should seek to wallow with joy at this outcome is completely beyond me.

  50. Mexicanbeemer @ #1044 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 9:56 am

    Barney
    Depends on the industry. Not all visa related roles are low pay with professional industries liking their foreign workers particularly British because they bring a certain image they believe suits their clients.

    The Government was talking about this in relation to the recovery from the recent bushfires.

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