Wherein we finally wrap up the Call of the Board series, a slowly unfolding state-by-state round-up every seat result from last year’s federal election. Here we tie up the loose ends of the territories, where Labor achieved a clean sweep of five seats – an essentially foregone conclusion for the Australian Capital Territory (which went from two to three seats at this election), but a strong result for them in the Northern Territory (which may be set to lose its second at the next). Previous episodes of the series dealt with Sydney (here and here), regional New South Wales, Melbourne, regional Victoria, south-east Queensland, regional Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia and Tasmania.
Solomon (Labor 3.1%; 3.0% swing to CLP): The always marginal seat that covers Darwin has only gone the way of the winning party once out of the last four elections (in 2013), this time returning Luke Gosling after he gained it for Labor in 2016. Gosling’s 6.0% winning margin off a 7.4% swing in 2016 was the clearest win in the history of a highly marginal seat, the previous record having been Dave Tollner’s 2.8% win for the Country Liberal Party in 2004. This meant he had enough change to record the seat’s second-biggest margin even after a 3.0% swing back to the Country Liberals. As the map to the right illustrates, the pattern of swings in the seat reflected broader themes from the election: the affluent area around the city centre swung to Labor, but the lower-income suburbs of the north went the other way, and the more conservative new suburbia of Palmerston went further still.
Lingiari (Labor 5.5%; 2.7% swing to CLP): Warren Snowdon retained the remainder-of-NT seat of Lingiari, which he has held without interruption since 2001, his closest shave in that time being a 0.9% margin in 2013. The swings in the two Northern Territory seats have been closely matched at the last election, with a 7.5% blowout in Lingiari in 2016 followed by a 2.7% correction this time. There have been occasions in the past where swings varied widely between Alice Springs and Katherine on the one hand and the remote communities in the other, but not this time.
Bean (Labor 7.5%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): The ACT’s new third seat was created entirely from territory that was formerly in the Canberra electorate, whose member Gai Brodtmann did not seek re-election. David Smith, who had previously filled Katy Gallagher’s Senate vacancy when she fell foul of section 44 in May 2018, had no trouble holding Bean for Labor in the face of a slight swing. Left-wing independent Jamie Christie scored a creditable 8.3%, contributing to solid drops on the primary vote for both major parties.
Canberra (Labor 17.1%; 4.1% swing to Labor): The Canberra electorate covers the central third of the capital, and might be regarded as the true “new” seat since it drew territory from both of the previous electorates. Like Darwin, Canberra offered a miniature reflection of national trend in that the city’s inner area moved solidly further to the left, while the suburbs swung to the Liberals. This was reflected in a 4.6% primary vote increase for the Greens, reducing the gap with the Liberals to 27.8% to 23.3%. This is the lowest yet recorded in an ACT seat, but with the Liberal how-to-vote directing preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens, they would probably have remained out of contention if they had made up the difference. With the departure of Gai Brodtmann, its new Labor member is Alicia Payne, who dropped 2.0% on the primary vote to 40.5%.
Fenner (Labor 10.6%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): Labor’s Andrew Leigh suffered a slight swing from similar primary vote numbers to 2016, the main disturbance being the appearance of the United Australia Party with 4.1%.
jenauthor:
I’ve had as extremely busy few days, but I haven’t seen much of Scotty either.
Setka’s war on leaks: union boss considers reward to ‘hunt down’ source
https://www.theage.com.au/national/setka-s-war-on-leaks-union-boss-considers-reward-to-hunt-down-source-20200216-p541a7.html
Morning all
Much appreciation BK
nath
No, they made a big mistake in believing Malcolm Turnbull when he said he could deliver the same service more quickly and more cheaply.
Even many techie types were sucked in. Apparently they’d go to a conference, Turnbull would get up and make a speech, and they’d be blown away by his knowledge of the technology and the promises he was making.
I’d point out that nothing he said was actually Coalition policy, but they didn’t seem to get that.
With the techie types sucked in, there were few people left with the expertise* to push back on the Coalition claims.
Of course, post election, there were a lot of shocked techies…
There were potentially huge advantages with a non-privatised high speed internet, which went way beyond household needs. For example, the ability to gauge electricity usage in real time, ensuring that assets were deployed almost instantly, would have saved the country millions each year. Delivery of health services in the home, ditto. (There are at least three other major benefits which I can’t remember off the top of my head, but basically if Labor’s plan had been delivered, it would have paid for itself four times over).
It’s harder – and more expensive – to do these things via a series of private networks.
*I’m not claiming I had it.
Tristo
If the Greens disappeared from politics and the 80% that preference the ALP went back to being ALP voters then it wouldn’t make a big difference with the Greens strongest support mostly concentrated in safe electorates.. Apart from Melbourne returning to the ALP column there wouldn’t be many gains.
Tristo @ #921 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 5:01 am
Rightwing populism is much more successful than leftwing populism. But in any case, Labor had already adopted the main issue the Greens were supposedly formed to address: the environment.
Labor already had a track record of significant environmental policy implementation long before the Greens were a thing in parliament. That’s likely why Labor isn’t adopting Greens policies like the Libs with PHON, because Labor owned them first.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/bushfires-backpackers-come-to-the-rescue-in-rebuild/news-story/4a8f0ea7151693b5d100b1472ba61eea
Zo itza grate moof. That would appear to be a prima facie case in support of the search for alternatives.
The military have approximately 10,000 vehicles which would be ideal for Strayan out of workers (read Newstart).
Plus for heavy work and a family – this item
Support equipment –
If the plan is by the current Gummint can be successfully described as “a good plan” (extremely doubtful) then using current job seekers and New Starters must be worth a trial. Each could have a Bushmaster or LandRover. 🚚😎
‘It’s just a bad tax’: former Treasury heads unite to slam stamp duty
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-just-a-bad-tax-former-treasury-heads-unite-to-slam-stamp-duty-20200216-p541aq.html
Greens policy – abolish stamp duty, support a land tax: https://greens.org.au/sites/default/files/2019-02/Greens%202019%20Policy%20-%20A%20Home%20For%20All_0.pdf
I daren’t ask what they were praising. 🙁
zoomster
says:
Monday, February 17, 2020 at 8:47 am
nath
No, they made a big mistake in believing Malcolm Turnbull when he said he could deliver the same service more quickly and more cheaply.
Even many techie types were sucked in. Apparently they’d go to a conference, Turnbull would get up and make a speech, and they’d be blown away by his knowledge of the technology and the promises he was making.
I’d point out that nothing he said was actually Coalition policy, but they didn’t seem to get that.
With the techie types sucked in, there were few people left with the expertise* to push back on the Coalition claims.
Of course, post election, there were a lot of shocked techies…
There were potentially huge advantages with a non-privatised high speed internet, which went way beyond household needs. For example, the ability to gauge electricity usage in real time, ensuring that assets were deployed almost instantly, would have saved the country millions each year. Delivery of health services in the home, ditto. (There are at least three other major benefits which I can’t remember off the top of my head, but basically if Labor’s plan had been delivered, it would have paid for itself four times over).
It’s harder – and more expensive – to do these things via a series of private networks.
___________________
You might be right. I have a feeling though, that party politics has so infused the whole NBN issue that the truth is difficult to get to. I do know I’d rather the debt for building the network to be on the companies’ books rather than the governments.
One thing I can’t work out is why Australia has such low speeds compared to Canada and the USA when we apparently have higher penetration of FTTH. If anyone knows.
https://www.fomsn.com/market-research/sobhana/asian-countries-lead-the-ftth-fttb-global-ranking/
You can see this happening already.
NSW Labor considers new rules on leadership challenges
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-labor-considers-new-rules-on-leadership-challenges-20200216-p5419v.html
Tristo,
There was a major shift in the aftermath of the 1990 election.
During the 1980’s the environment vote was not regarded as being locked to Labor, so LNP was competing on policy. At the 1990 election LNP arguably had stronger climate change policies, yet green preferences went overwhelmingly to Labor after Richo came up with the strategy of telling green voters to vote for Environment parties but to preference Labor second. ALP won a PV of 39.44%, Democrats 11.26%, State based Greens 1.26%, and Labor won with a TPP vote of 49.90%.
As a direct result of this defeat LNP gave up trying to woo the environment vote.
The rest is history.
frednk @ #876 Sunday, February 16th, 2020 – 10:39 pm
I have re-read your post several times, and I cannot interpret it as “full support” for fracking. At best, you seem willing to excuse Labor’s fracking policy on the grounds that “the Greens made them do it”. But in the same post you admit that the policy is not rational and also (in a subsequent post) that you think fracking is “crazy”.
This is hardly “full support”.
Nor have any others posted support for fracking that I can find. From memory, only Zoomster even came close, saying (WTTE) that she is happy to leave such decisions to the experts.
However, if you do (or others here) want to express your full support for Labor’s NT fracking policy, please go ahead. I really am interested.
imacca @ #882 Sunday, February 16th, 2020 – 8:30 pm
Indonesia has established a quarantine facility at an air force base in the South China Sea.
This was done pretty early on before the end of the Lunar New Year holidays.
Is Morrison now in hiding? The stink of corruption is escaping through the pipes from the bowels of the govt wing & no matter what they do, another minister adds to the faecal matter escaping the plumbing. Shame it is only the first year of this term
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-17/centrelink-bill-sent-to-sydney-woman-by-mistake/11964000
Centrelink sent Tracey a $45,500 parenting allowance bill, but she doesn’t have any children
I can only hope the Centrelink never hears about the time that Colesworths gave me a package of cat food (free) despite that I have never had a cat. 🐈
Someone asked the other day whether this instability in the Nationals (and by extension the govt) could lead to an early election. I doubt the Nats would do anything to imperil the govt they’re a part of.
Jackie Trad braces for caucus storm ahead of integrity law debate
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/jackie-trad-braces-for-caucus-storm-ahead-of-integrity-law-debate-20200216-p541b9.html
bakunin
That 1990-96 period is when many of today’s cultural wars started. In hindsight the 1990/1993 and 2001 elections went the wrong way with today’s political debate severely hamstrung by those results because the reactionaries see the issues that determined those elections as either left wing. The ABC, climate and Indigenous Australians or right wing. Border protection. Even the Liberals being better economic managers is a legacy of the early 1990s when the recession smashed many Australians.
nath
‘I do know I’d rather the debt for building the network to be on the companies’ books rather than the governments.’
Strange attitude for a Green supporter – or indeed, for a progressive!
I wonder if Zali Steggall will be re-elected? I suppose the chances of that decline if the govt comes to be seen as doing something to reduce our GHGEs, which is a large part of why she was elected, along with getting rid of Abbott.
ABC RN Background Briefing:
Inside the brazen tax scam where the homeless are made company directors
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/backgroundbriefing/inside-the-staggering-tax-scam-where-the-homeless-are-made-comp/11963044
“It’s a long-running ‘dummy director’ scam that’s siphoned tens of millions of dollars from workers, small businesses and the taxpayer.
In Victoria, a small group of accountants spent 15 years signing on drug users and homeless Australians to help their clients cheat the system.
Reporter Dan Oakes investigates how this was allowed to go on for so long.”
Bernard Keane – The real reason why everyone thinks Queensland coal miners totally rock
https://www.crikey.com.au/2020/02/14/queensland-coal-miners-totally-rock/
BCA are telling Fran that they fully support Steggalls efforts to get to zero net emissions by 2050. How nice. They said they have always supported this target. Why then, Fran asked, did they fight hard against the baddies in the ALP for daring to implement it when in power or propose it when in opposition? Well, just because.
Fess
Havent caught up with this weeks real time as yet. Is it worth watching?
Stories like this just keep coming. They reflect our own experiences …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-17/fire-victims-struggling-to-access-recovery-payments/11969928
We are only impacted in a very small way, and we know we will recover. For us, it is just a matter of annoyance and frustration, not despair. By my heart goes out to those who are really suffering. They must feel so abandoned.
It is simply staggering how incompetent our government is. Great at announcing things, appalling at actually delivering anything.
People and businesses will be needlessly bankrupted or ruined by this rolling shambles. It would not surprise me if we see a spike in suicides in bushfire affected areas because so many people simply cannot seem to get any of the promised assistance.
I could not watch the benefit concert that was held in Sydney and televised last night. It would have made me too angry. So much money being donated, and so little of it getting to where it is actually needed.
zoomster
says:
Monday, February 17, 2020 at 9:07 am
nath
‘I do know I’d rather the debt for building the network to be on the companies’ books rather than the governments.’
Strange attitude for a Green supporter – or indeed, for a progressive!
___________________________
I don’t think so. I can’t see why a progressive would be opposed to companies running businesses.
‘bakunin says:
Monday, February 17, 2020 at 8:58 am
Tristo,
There was a major shift in the aftermath of the 1990 election.
During the 1980’s the environment vote was not regarded as being locked to Labor, so LNP was competing on policy. At the 1990 election LNP arguably had stronger climate change policies, yet green preferences went overwhelmingly to Labor after Richo came up with the strategy of telling green voters to vote for Environment parties but to preference Labor second. ALP won a PV of 39.44%, Democrats 11.26%, State based Greens 1.26%, and Labor won with a TPP vote of 49.90%.
As a direct result of this defeat LNP gave up trying to woo the environment vote.
The rest is history.’
That is part of the story. But wait, there is more.
Not only the LNP given up on environment votes.
Substantial sections of the Labor Party know they can’t win on the environment. The Greens, who never have to deliver on anything, will always outbid Labor on the environment vote.
The Greens have successfully used politics to make the environment irrelevant for 30 years. They have no current intention of changing their modus operandi.
The end result: our environment is history. But do not even try suggesting that there are direct connections between what happens to the environment in the real world and the political and personal behaviour of the Greens. Because if you do so, you get the standard Greens’ response: personal abuse.
Vic:
Yes, it was a good show and panel discussion.
Fess
Thanks.
The state of play in the US is a moving feast.
Always feels there is a tipping point that is about to occur
Boerwar:
I have long believed that the rise of the Greens party has led to reduced outcomes for the environment.
Vic:
One thing that is occurring is daily Trump is trying to eliminate the baggage weighing down his reelection chances.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/something-has-to-be-done-trumps-quest-to-rewrite-history-of-the-russia-probe/2020/02/15/ea7a1b06-4f61-11ea-9b5c-eac5b16dafaa_story.html
nath
It’s more that progressives don’t mind governments doing that – and are not particularly worried about government debt.
After all, most successful businesses make sure they’re always in debt. It’s how they fuel ongoing growth. Lack of future investment means you’re not going anywhere.
‘Felix the Cassowary says:
Monday, February 17, 2020 at 5:35 am
> Situation is odd, but maybe the Indonesians who get it are just staying home and getting better rather than swamping hospitals looking for treatment they wont get anyway as its a virus??
Indonesians don’t self quarantine when they’re sick. Although those who work in formal employment are entitled to a significant amount of sick leave (that would make you jealous), significant portions of people are self employed or otherwise not in formal employment, and those who are in formal employment are not necessarily able to exercise their leave rights.
It is also significantly denser in population than Australia and health is significantly worse. Air pollution, for instance, is significant, and many people work in traffic.’
Not forgetting the population-wide impacts of kretek.
Fess
Yes Trump and his cronies are working hard. And teflon Don continues on his merry way.
He has been like the cat with 9 lives plus 100.
William Barr has worked very hard to stop the exposure of what they are trying to cover up. But even Barr now is under heaps of pressure.
I continue to be very optimistic about him being hugely exposed that even his most ardent supporters will waiver.
I’m not clear as to what it will ultimately be, but it will involve money, treasonous conduct and maybe just maybe something very unpalatable involving young females.
nath
The profit principle naturally guides all decisions by private companies. Therefore by definition, services cannot be provided equally to everyone. I would have thought you understood that. Previously we all had a fairly equal telephone service.
Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren have the same odds?! 😮 Someone’s having a laugh.
Vic:
I’m not as optimistic as you. I reckon Trump will be reelected, even if it’s the same as before: losing the popular vote but winning where it matters in the EC.
lizzie
Yep, and certain services are either inherently unprofitable or running them purely to make a profit would detrimental to society as a whole. In the first place, government HAS to run those businesses; in the second case, it’s a good idea if they do!
Fess
Anything is possible.
A lot still to play out before November.
Boerwar,
Yawn. Still peddling alt-history to protect your hero PJ Keating.
Being not-for-profit is a misnomer because the entity still needs to be cash flow positive or it will eventually run out of money. Some people assume not-for-profits are not focused on being profitable when in reality the not-for-profit does focus on generating profits for itself instead of for external shareholders.
zoomster
says:
Monday, February 17, 2020 at 9:39 am
nath
It’s more that progressives don’t mind governments doing that – and are not particularly worried about government debt.
________________________
I must be more worried than most. Personally I would have preferred Labor’s NBN model get up, even if as I suspect it would have cost a lot more than advertised. I would’ve much preferred to have FTTH to everyone instead of half a dozen submarines.
Confessions @ #988 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 8:50 am
81:1 must be their standard/default “nobody is betting on this option” payout.
nath
No doubt about that, from my pov.
MexicanB
When I worked for local govt it wasn’t so much making a profit as breaking even, but I agree there are shades of n-f-p.
I don’t like the new stand-up ABC24. Less relaxed. Anyone else agree?
nath
When was it ever an either/or decision?