Call of the board: the territories

Zooming in on the federal election results for the three seats of the Australian Capital Territory and the two of the Northern Territory, all of which were won by Labor.

Wherein we finally wrap up the Call of the Board series, a slowly unfolding state-by-state round-up every seat result from last year’s federal election. Here we tie up the loose ends of the territories, where Labor achieved a clean sweep of five seats – an essentially foregone conclusion for the Australian Capital Territory (which went from two to three seats at this election), but a strong result for them in the Northern Territory (which may be set to lose its second at the next). Previous episodes of the series dealt with Sydney (here and here), regional New South Wales, Melbourne, regional Victoria, south-east Queensland, regional Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia and Tasmania.

Solomon (Labor 3.1%; 3.0% swing to CLP): The always marginal seat that covers Darwin has only gone the way of the winning party once out of the last four elections (in 2013), this time returning Luke Gosling after he gained it for Labor in 2016. Gosling’s 6.0% winning margin off a 7.4% swing in 2016 was the clearest win in the history of a highly marginal seat, the previous record having been Dave Tollner’s 2.8% win for the Country Liberal Party in 2004. This meant he had enough change to record the seat’s second-biggest margin even after a 3.0% swing back to the Country Liberals. As the map to the right illustrates, the pattern of swings in the seat reflected broader themes from the election: the affluent area around the city centre swung to Labor, but the lower-income suburbs of the north went the other way, and the more conservative new suburbia of Palmerston went further still.

Lingiari (Labor 5.5%; 2.7% swing to CLP): Warren Snowdon retained the remainder-of-NT seat of Lingiari, which he has held without interruption since 2001, his closest shave in that time being a 0.9% margin in 2013. The swings in the two Northern Territory seats have been closely matched at the last election, with a 7.5% blowout in Lingiari in 2016 followed by a 2.7% correction this time. There have been occasions in the past where swings varied widely between Alice Springs and Katherine on the one hand and the remote communities in the other, but not this time.

Bean (Labor 7.5%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): The ACT’s new third seat was created entirely from territory that was formerly in the Canberra electorate, whose member Gai Brodtmann did not seek re-election. David Smith, who had previously filled Katy Gallagher’s Senate vacancy when she fell foul of section 44 in May 2018, had no trouble holding Bean for Labor in the face of a slight swing. Left-wing independent Jamie Christie scored a creditable 8.3%, contributing to solid drops on the primary vote for both major parties.

Canberra (Labor 17.1%; 4.1% swing to Labor): The Canberra electorate covers the central third of the capital, and might be regarded as the true “new” seat since it drew territory from both of the previous electorates. Like Darwin, Canberra offered a miniature reflection of national trend in that the city’s inner area moved solidly further to the left, while the suburbs swung to the Liberals. This was reflected in a 4.6% primary vote increase for the Greens, reducing the gap with the Liberals to 27.8% to 23.3%. This is the lowest yet recorded in an ACT seat, but with the Liberal how-to-vote directing preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens, they would probably have remained out of contention if they had made up the difference. With the departure of Gai Brodtmann, its new Labor member is Alicia Payne, who dropped 2.0% on the primary vote to 40.5%.

Fenner (Labor 10.6%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): Labor’s Andrew Leigh suffered a slight swing from similar primary vote numbers to 2016, the main disturbance being the appearance of the United Australia Party with 4.1%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,398 comments on “Call of the board: the territories”

Comments Page 19 of 28
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  1. lizzie says:
    Monday, February 17, 2020 at 6:04 am
    Look at clenched fists and jutting chin. This is your PM.

    Look at the worried expression on Gladys.
    It must have been a heated exchange.

    Do you have the source of the photo, Lizzie?

  3. C@t
    It was quite a struggle this morning. Half way through the 4G backup failed so I had to revert to a rather scratchy mobile hotspot to finish the job.

  4. Jeez, these Grants Rorts seem to be ten a penny! Sarah Martin is finding them hidden under every rock and in every nook and cranny!

    I think it’s starting to reach force majeure in the electorate’s mind though, as I saw one comment make the connection last week to the effect, ‘my taxes are going into the Treasury, only for these bastards to take it out and use it to get re-elected!’

    THAT’S the sort of idea that gets governments thrown out.

  6. BK,
    I hope you get the real internet, such as it is under the ATM regime, back asap. However, it seems to me that the wild storms that global warming is producing, coupled with the D Grade internet we now have, will only keep producing problems for whoever is unlucky enough to have been affected by the storms, or fires, or both.

    I guess it keeps the technicians in a job. 😐

  8. Maude Lynne

    Dammit, I posted an answer to you and was logged out.

    In brief, that photo has been kicking around since Morrison first returned to Oz. I think it as probably from a newspaper.

  9. Bill Barr ouster demanded by over 1,100 ex-Justice Dept officials in scathing letter

    According to a report from the New York Times, over 1,100 former federal prosecutors and Justice Department officials have signed on to a letter calling for Attorney General Bill Barr to step down.

    The report states the letter insists, “Each of us strongly condemns President Trump’s and Attorney General Barr’s interference in the fair administration of justice,” adding those actions “require Mr. Barr to resign.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/02/bill-barr-ouster-demanded-by-over-1100-ex-justice-dept-officials-in-scathing-letter/

  10. @RonniSalt
    ·
    8h
    For those of you playing along at home, notice how in his written Senate submission Phil Gaetjens repeatedly refers to his “advice” to the PM.

    The reference to his “advice” appears 3 times.

    He never uses the phrases, “the report” or ” my report”

    That’s because there isn’t one.

  11. Lizzie
    “that photo has been kicking around since Morrison first returned to Oz. I think it as probably from a newspaper.”

    It’s a photo that needs no words.
    Prime Bully in action.

  12. Conservative drops mic on complicit press trying to maintain access to Trump: ‘He’s a raving lunatic … tell it like it is’

    Appearing on MSNBC’s “AM Joy” conservative Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin excoriated members of the press who — in the pursuit of appearing “objective” — refuse to “tell it like it is” when reporting on President Donald Trump.

    “When the president had that out of control press conference if you could call it that, when he was rambling on and on, they were so restrained, they described it as a celebration,” she continued. “No, he was a raving lunatic. You need to use the words, the verbs and correct description so you give the public a feel of how dangerous this guy is. That is not being biased — that is being accurate and revealing the danger this guy poses.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/02/conservative-drops-mic-on-complicit-press-trying-to-maintain-access-to-trump-hes-a-raving-lunatic-tell-it-like-it-is/

  13. Maude Lynne

    Most telling is Gladys’ expression, I think. Without that, it wouldn’t quite make the same point. She’s obviously both horrified and nervous that there might be a complete breakdown in cooperation between NSW and PM.

  14. Every EIS I worked on — for coal, coal-seam gas, gas refinery, bauxite, housing estates, and airport expansion projects — during a three-and-a-bit year period found species listed as vulnerable or endangered.

    These species included koalas, ornamental snakes, water mice, rock wallabies, and countless non-listed species like sugar gliders, dunnarts and bettongs.

    They were going to be killed during the development phase, or by starvation or displacement.

    The presence of these animals or plants did not stop any project going ahead.

    Ongoing degradation of ecosystems, and the fragmenting of wildlife into smaller and smaller patches of habitat, has left our ecosystems vulnerable.
    …
    Australia has one of the highest rates of extinction of any country in the world.

    And the key policy that is supposed to minimise the harm — environmental offsets — isn’t working, experts warn.
    …
    Offsets don’t actually require a like-for-like replacement of suitable habitat.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-02-16/bushfire-wildlife-extinction-offsets/9622980

  15. Morning all. Thanks, BK. Trojan effort!

    In the not reported news:

    A rumour doing the rounds is that just one of the 28 establishments which have either voluntarily or by decree closed their doors in Macau – the Las Vegas Sands – is losing $10 million a day. One gets a sense of the scale from the following images:

    https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=image+of+las+vegas+sands+macau

    Afficionadoes of US politics might recall that one of Trump’s biggest donors was one Sheldon Adelson, owner of the Las Vegas Sands.

    While looks are not everything, and beauty is but skin deep and in the eye of the beholder, one assumes that Adelson may get to consort with the beautiful people because of his gambling wealth:

    https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premium-adelson-reportedly-watches-election-with-trump-1.6632299

  17. lizzie

    Offsets are a scam, IMO.

    Other than that, the cred of the writer is somewhat reduced by a reference to ‘water mice’.

    Never heard of them!

    Other, other than that, the Greens want to increase our population by around 150,000 migrants a year. The additional people will want to live in constructions, travel of constructions, work in constructions, use consumables made in constructions, and recreate in constructions. ALL those constructions will be on land that required the killing of myriad animals. And that is before you come to the irrigation, cleared land, pesticides and fertilizers required to feed the extra people. And the extra dams required to enable them to drink, bathe and flush away their wastes.

    This sort of Greens policy confusions and contradictions are SOP.

  18. That Mark David toon says it all really.
    There’s this strange sense that there is no alternative to Scrote and the coalition.
    The media and commentators would have us just accept this is how it is now and with a bit of luck shit might come good in the end.
    Whatever happened to the good old days when there was an alternative government waiting in the wings.

  21. I feel like I am sounding like a broken record here.

    John Howard, Tony Abbott & Scott Morrison have responded to the challenge One Nation and other right-wing populists the Liberal and National parties have faced, namely by co-opting some of their policies, to the determent of this country.

    I cannot see why Labor cannot co-opt Greens policies in the same manner.

  22. I suppose it is now received wisdom that an organisation absorbs the morals and modus operandi of its CEO.

    The bureaucracy is now becoming Morrison-ised. Shameless. Untruths and spin instead of action.

  24. @lizzie

    Since the federal election last year, it seems much more likely that some type of political revolution is going to eventually occur in this country. Turning the country into Semi-Presidential republic like France, with some powers of the Prime Minister current exercises is transferred to a directly elected President.

  26. Tristo

    ‘I cannot see why Labor cannot co-opt Greens policies in the same manner.’

    Because there aren’t votes in doing so?

    Anyway, Labor gets accused of co opting Greens policies all the time.

  27. Tristo @ #921 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 8:01 am

    John Howard, Tony Abbott & Scott Morrison have responded to the challenge One Nation and other right-wing populists the Liberal and National parties have faced, namely by co-opting some of their policies, to the determent of this country.

    I cannot see why Labor cannot co-opt Greens policies in the same manner. Also, back in the late 1980s Bob Hawke & Graham Richardson decide to co-opt , some of the policies that the environmentalist groups were advocating.

    Because when the Right does it they are backed up by the Murdoch press and Sky TV, with the ABC tagging along dutifully.

    However, when the Left does it, they are excoriated up hill and down dale relentlessly by the same band of warriors for the Right.

  28. Tristo,

    I seriously doubt people are going to want a president after watching the US experience.
    More likely they will want a federal ICAC with power to hold politicians to account, not create a new political role we don’t need.

  29. https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/02/15/call-board-territories/comment-page-18/#comment-3342969

    … Lizzie, about that shot of the head of NSW fireys, Gladys and Shouty Mchappyclap on a foundation of Bronte slogan bogan, here’s a Google reverse image search, https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6566742/pm-summons-bankers-insurers-to-deal-with-bushfire-crisis/ or https://www.google.com/search?tbs=sbi:AMhZZit5GztmnaZy0nKOZWN0y5ULuYLCqh3p_1TQAn_14-fjrvjW6ddgx-_1bHeCVZyfbUx0Pi8cXpp8eJ52b1DqvecBHplGtSAboJiq-CK40a6kps6CqLA0R12SL9-Cvfh9e0UC0GCLM9nJj4WIQCvNeXsDyovGcdv40-3HcMvyVWPKxnFimxEA7bZQfk5IgZLLK4PFtnCkYq_1KXe3E8WQOsnVbyrcQMY0ytMkmkRGKivpBxzYwwq1Z5WyjXF9APH9QIHsqSt0freqZNImDRHElddQTrDpO5MFnE327KRmONiJHeHaB5WOjqdkfwKEJ3GQkqV34SjGdHt9

  30. Tristo @ #924 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 7:10 am

    @lizzie

    Since the federal election last year, it seems much more likely that some type of political revolution is going to eventually occur in this country. Turning the country into Semi-Presidential republic like France, with some powers of the Prime Minister current exercises is transferred to a directly elected President.

    Yeah, GG Whatisname has been so all over the media and political scenery.

  33. Our lazy, incompetent government? Or should we be thankful that they’re not bringing in more laws to restrict our behaviour?

    EVERALD COMPTON
    @EVERALDATLARGE
    ·
    31m
    In all the 60 years I have been visiting #Parliament there has always been between 25 & 50 Bills in various stages of legislative process. When I was there last week there were only 6 in the system. This clearly tells us that there is something badly wrong.

  35. Everald Compton was the guy telling us to vote for the Coalition before the last election, wasn’t he? So he got what he asked for.

  36. Ian Verrender – Why disasters like the bushfires and coronavirus can turbocharge GDP

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-17/why-economists-delight-in-doom-coronavirus-bushfires/11970506

    But there’s one thing Carlyle overlooked. Even the most dismal practitioners of the dismal arts often extract joy from plumbing the depths of despair.

    When it comes to mainstream economists, there’s nothing they enjoy more than a good old-fashioned disaster.

    It’s here the dark clouds evaporate, leaving nothing but silver linings.
    :::
    The idea that there are benefits to a disaster like our fire crisis tells you there’s something horribly wrong with the way we measure economic growth and performance.

  38. John Nobel – thanks for the search link

    date of Jan 5th would fit – that’s when ” Fitzsimmons said he was ‘disappointed’ not to have been told of the plan to deploy 3,000 army reserve members to the worst hit areas before Saturday’s announcement.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7854975/Hero-Shane-Fitzsimmons-reveals-one-personal-struggle-lead-success-firefighter.html

    Photo was used as well by The Examiner, Canberra Times, Newcastle Herald and Mail Times

  39. Three-year-old Australian girl in Syria’s al-Hawl camp may lose fingers to frostbite

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/17/three-year-old-australian-girl-in-syrias-al-hawl-camp-may-lose-fingers-to-frostbite

    Many observers have raised concern it is acting as an incubator for extremism and, if left to languish, a potential site of resurgence for Isis.

    Currently, there are 19 Australian women and 47 Australian children held in the al-Hawl camp. The Australian government is aware of their identities and the bona fides of their Australian citizenship or right to claim that citizenship.

    They are family members of former foreign fighters who have been captured or killed. None of the Australian women in the camp have been charged as being combatants, and many were coerced, forced or tricked into travelling to Syria.
    :::
    But the Australian government has consistently refused to repatriate its citizens, despite the urgings of Kurdish forces running the camp, its ally America, and other countries such as the UK, German, Denmark and France repatriating their citizens.
    :::
    “This is one of the worst places in the world to be a child. And Australia has an obligation to these women and children – these are Australian citizens at the end of the day. It’s no use Australia trying to disown them – there is no capacity for Turkish or Kurdish authorities to deal with these people. Australia needs to put trust in its own criminal justice system, in its social services, to be able to bring these people home and reintegrate them into Australian society.”

    A recent report by an independent commission to the powerful United Nations Human Rights Council – of which Australia is a member – said nations around the world should repatriate their children from camps in Syria and should stop stripping citizenship from nationals caught up in the war.

  40. Voters generally, and prosperous voters in particular, suffer from what I call the mother of all cognitive illusions: they believe that having to pay higher taxes would make it more difficult to buy what they want. Like many illusory beliefs, this one may seem self-evident. And yet, as I will explain, it is completely baseless.
    …
    Regardless of where they stand on tax policy, then, most prosperous voters believe that higher taxes would necessitate unpleasant reductions in personal consumption spending.

    I call this belief the mother of all cognitive illusions because it has caused more damage than any other illusion yet identified by behavioral scientists. It has prevented us from raising the revenue required to deal with the many pressing challenges we face—decaying infrastructure, runaway income inequality, and, most important, the climate crisis. The harm it has caused to date pales in comparison with the future damage it threatens.

    https://behavioralscientist.org/behavioral-economics-robert-frank-taxes-mother-of-all-cognitive-illusions/

  41. There is no Gaetjens report, there is no Barnaby Drought report…never was.
    It is pretty obvious. Strange Labor hasn’t explicitly said this.

    In a Melbourne city Hotel- Internet speed 0.8mbs…we really know how to impress International visitors to this country!

  42. lizzie @ #921 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 8:04 am

    I suppose it is now received wisdom that an organisation absorbs the morals and modus operandi of its CEO.

    The bureaucracy is now becoming Morrison-ised. Shameless. Untruths and spin instead of action.

    And yet, Labor continues as if it’s business as usual.
    It’s as if Labor has already ‘adapted’ to be totally irrelevant to the governance of the country.

  44. Torchbearer @ #940 Monday, February 17th, 2020 – 8:33 am

    There is no Gaetjens report, there is no Barnaby Drought report…never was.
    It is pretty obvious. Strange Labor hasn’t explicitly said this.

    In a Melbourne city Hotel- Internet speed 0.8mbs…we really know how to impress International visitors to his country!

    Strange Labor hasn’t explicitly said, and done alot of things lately.

  45. Seeing that the USA and Canada have much faster average internet speeds than Australia and both of these networks were built by private companies did Australia make a big mistake in creating a nationalised network?

  46. Peter van Onselen@vanOnselenP
    ·
    1h
    Scott Morrison in parliament on 5 Feb: “They were all eligible projects”. That is flat out wrong and always was wrong. That is therefore a clear cut case of misleading parliament.

    Labor isn’t letting this go either.

  47. I may be wrong but Morrison seems to have gone rather quiet over the past few days.

    I suspect the ‘top brass’ have been in the bunker trying to work out a good marketing angle to absolve him/his govt for all the perfidy.

    All I can say is: good luck with that!

    As someone said above – the stink of corruption is escaping the through the pipes from the bowels of the govt wing … and no matter what they do, another minister adds to the faecal matter escaping the plumbing.

  48. James Mathison
    @jamesmathison
    ·
    1h
    Science, and more pressingly climate science, isn’t partisan. It’s not left wing or right wing. It’s simply pro-facts.

    Could one argue that a decision to investigate a subject does depend on beliefs and values already held?

    Whether or not science is partisan or political, the perception of science often is. Beliefs about many scientific issues, such as human evolution and anthropogenic climate change, correlate with political ideology and party affiliation. There are also associations between political orientation and more general attitudes toward science and scientists. For instance, when it comes to assessing the possible risks and benefits of science and technology, liberals place greater trust in university scientists than conservatives do.

    A new study, forthcoming in the journal Public Understanding of Science, contributes to a growing body of psychological research uncovering the mechanisms by which politics and ideology influence people’s perceptions of scientists and scientific claims. The key insight is that science isn’t understood in isolation, disconnected from other beliefs, values and emotions. Instead, science is assimilated within a web of existing attitudes and beliefs, a core part of which concerns a person’s social identity.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/13.7/2017/04/24/525360310/science-isn-t-partisan-but-public-perception-of-science-often-is

  49. lizzie
    A political revolution is unlikely with the majority of a disengaged electorate hardly likely to be able to name the current PM.
    The level of recognition for the entire Federal Ministry would be zero and many would have difficulty knowing of the existence of a Governor General!
    Most would know what a Hi-Lux is and the latest winner of Dancing with the Stars.

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