Essential Research leadership ratings

Essential’s latest leadership ratings find Scott Morrison continuing to struggle, despite being back to level pegging on preferred prime minister.

The Guardian reports on yet another fortnightly Essential Research poll with no voting intention numbers, but we does at least get the monthly leadership ratings. These show Scott Morrison down a point on approval to 39% and steady on disapproval at 52%, after the previous poll respectively had him down five and up nine. Anthony Albanese is respectively down two to 41% and up one to 31%, and he has lost his 39-36 lead as preferred prime minister, with the two now tied on 36%. The BludgerTrack trends on the sidebar have now been updated with these results.

Further questions on bushfire recovery, sports rorts and coronavirus don’t seem to have turned up anything too mindblowing, but the publication of the full report may turn up something hopefully later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The most interesting of the supplementary findings for mine relate to the budget surplus, the consistent theme of which is that respondents aren’t that fussed about it: 79% agree spending on bushfire recovery is more important than maintaining it, with 11% disagreeing; 65% say it would be understandable if the coronavirus impact meant it wasn’t achieved, with 18% disagreeing; and 57% agree it was wrong for the government to discuss the surplus in the present tense before the election, with 24% disagreeing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,911 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings”

  1. mundo

    ABC radio news has managed to turn the coalition chaos story into an Albanese ‘denies accusations’ story….sheesh

    Nationals infighting continues as Government contends with shock Deputy Speaker vote loss:
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-11/nationals-deputy-speaker-revenge-for-leadership/11952934

    Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese denied accusations Labor’s efforts to install Mr O’Brien in the job were merely an attempt at destabilising the Government.

    But he refused to outline the discussions Labor had with rogue Nationals ahead of the vote.

    “I’d be surprised if there weren’t discussions around the chamber, there are all the time,” Mr Albanese said.

    “I’m not saying anything about it. I’m saying private discussions are private discussions. I’m saying that I didn’t have a discussion with anyone about this.”

  2. Rex Douglas
    says:
    Tuesday, February 11, 2020 at 12:30 pm
    nath @ #205 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 12:17 pm
    $15 billion to connect the Ring Road to the Eastern Freeway doesn’t sound like value for money to me.
    Something has to be done. What do you suggest ?
    ____________________
    They could improve PT in the NE to reduce pressure on the roads. A train line to Doncaster or Doncaster East would be better than this monstrosity.

  3. Rex

    ‘Not if a few moderates cross the floor they don’t..’

    I haven’t seen any heat being put on the Liberal moderates whose votes would be needed for this.

    I’ve seen, on the other hand, lots of Labor bashing and accounts of posters contacting their local Labor members.

    I’ve also seen – just up the thread – another one of your ‘same same’ posts, where you declare there is a ‘Lib-Lab’ cartel.

    If the latter is the case, then more than a few moderates are needed to cross the floor.

    So which is it, Rex – a conspiracy by both major parties, which means that no matter how many moderates cross the floor the Bill is knackered, or is one major party potentially on side and so (i) there is no cartel and (ii) only a few moderates are needed?

    Your position at the moment appears to be contradictory, so I’d appreciate your clarification.

    I’d also like to know what you’re doing to get those few moderates on side – have you emailed some of them, for example? Rang their offices? – because I don’t see how abusing Labor does that job.

  4. sprocket

    You are still in mourning RDN is no longer leader of the Greens party. Being robbed of your meme “Dirty Dick” would have that effect.

    Bandt displays passion, and communicates clearly. He has more ‘mongrel’ and politial nous to push back against his detractors and, therefore, is not such a soft target. How sad for you.

  5. nath @ #252 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 1:07 pm

    Rex Douglas
    says:
    Tuesday, February 11, 2020 at 12:30 pm
    nath @ #205 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 12:17 pm
    $15 billion to connect the Ring Road to the Eastern Freeway doesn’t sound like value for money to me.
    Something has to be done. What do you suggest ?
    ____________________
    They could improve PT in the NE to reduce pressure on the roads. A train line to Doncaster or Doncaster East would be better than this monstrosity.

    That train line is long overdue too.

    While PT is crucial, I think people will continue to want the private space of their vehicle to travel.

    The increased use of EV’s will benefit the environment so a motorway of some form to connect those roads is needed in my opinion.

  6. Peg

    I am on the record saying we should give Adam Bandt clean air to recalibrate the Greens, which I sure he can do with the support of all progressives.

  7. Pegasus
    “$15 billion to connect the Ring Road to the Eastern Freeway doesn’t sound like value for money to me.”

    For the cost of North East Link Melbourne could build two new metro rain lines equivalent to the NW one recently built in Sydney, or five LRTs equal in size and complexity to Sydney SE LRT. That is, around 60 to 70 km of LRT track or 50km of Metro track. More than enough to do BOTH the Airport rail line and Doncaster.

  8. Mike Cannon-Brookes says Zali Steggall’s bill could repair Australia’s reputation on climate

    Exclusive: Atlassian co-founder says the MP’s bill is the exact type of action we need and deserves bipartisan support

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/11/mike-cannon-brookes-says-zali-steggalls-bill-could-repair-australias-reputation-on-climate

    Atlassian co-founder Mike Cannon-Brookes has thrown his support behind a climate action bill proposed by the independent Zali Steggall and has urged the major parties to put down the cudgels and support it.

    And the Australian Energy Council, representing major electricity and gas businesses, said the Steggall bill deserved to be seriously considered as it had the potential to deliver certainty and a path forward for the national economy.

    Cannon-Brookes said on Tuesday the Steggall proposal, unveiled this week, was “a smart bill, and the exact type of action we need to change Australia’s international reputation on climate”.

  9. zoomster @ #254 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 1:12 pm

    Rex

    ‘Not if a few moderates cross the floor they don’t..’

    I haven’t seen any heat being put on the Liberal moderates whose votes would be needed for this.

    I’ve seen, on the other hand, lots of Labor bashing and accounts of posters contacting their local Labor members.

    I’ve also seen – just up the thread – another one of your ‘same same’ posts, where you declare there is a ‘Lib-Lab’ cartel.

    If the latter is the case, then more than a few moderates are needed to cross the floor.

    So which is it, Rex – a conspiracy by both major parties, which means that no matter how many moderates cross the floor the Bill is knackered, or is one major party potentially on side and so (i) there is no cartel and (ii) only a few moderates are needed?

    Your position at the moment appears to be contradictory, so I’d appreciate your clarification.

    I’d also like to know what you’re doing to get those few moderates on side – have you emailed some of them, for example? Rang their offices? – because I don’t see how abusing Labor does that job.

    Labor members are binded to a vote, so the Labor ‘friends of coal’ would be required to vote for Steggalls bill if Butler can convince the majority of the Labor caucus and a few Lib moderates to vote for it.

  10. Rex Douglas
    says:
    The increased use of EV’s will benefit the environment so a motorway of some form to connect those roads is needed in my opinion.
    ______________________
    The Liberals East-West tunnel was a better option than this. Of course politics makes that impossible now.

  11. Peter Lewis on the latest Essential poll

    Budget ‘surplus’ and coronavirus: Morrison is caught between a slogan and a hard place

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2020/feb/11/budget-surplus-and-coronavirus-morrison-is-caught-between-a-slogan-and-a-hard-place

    The changing dynamics are reflected in this week’s Essential Report, which shows the PM has stemmed the tide from his aestas horribilis, flattening out on approvals and restoring balance as preferred prime minister.

    It’s not that people have forgiven #ScottyFromMarketting for his past derelictions, but there is genuine concern across partisan and demographic lines about the virus and its impact to spread that is beyond the political day to day.
    :::
    A separate question shows general satisfaction with the government’s handling of the virus to date, but when the specific measures being undertaken are outlined – and depoliticised – the support for those actions significantly increases.

    To the extent that the government is shutting down the nation’s borders, the public is right on board.
    :::
    Embedded in these findings is a yearning, in a time of global uncertainty, for government to protect us from a dangerous “other”, which I suspect speaks to something even more ingrained in our national psyche.
    :::
    We know the PM can develop a sharp message and deliver a line; indeed he has shaped an entire political agenda to play to these strengths. Now the times are testing whether he has what it takes to be anything more than the #ScottyFromMarketting.

  12. nath @ #262 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 1:21 pm

    Rex Douglas
    says:
    The increased use of EV’s will benefit the environment so a motorway of some form to connect those roads is needed in my opinion.
    ______________________
    The Liberals East-West tunnel was a better option than this. Of course politics makes that impossible now.

    That deal was a dud economically.

    Sending vehicles around the city instead of through it seems to me to be a better option. I’m no expert in this area though.

  13. The Guardian

    In a press conference with Greg Hunt, updating the nation on coronavirus (five cases have recovered) Professor Brendan Murphy, the chief medical officer has warned against xenophobia when discussing the health pandemic.

  14. Rex I don’t think it was the worst idea. The NE Link will solve one problem: journeys from the West and North to the East and SE will be easier. The problem is that nothing is done about the dead end at Hoddle St. It will probably lead to an ever greater bottleneck at Hoddle St and into the CBD. This is why I support a train line to Doncaster, not only will it reduce pressure on the Eastern it will reduce pressure on the inner city.

  15. The Guardian

    As the minister said also, our risk population is people who have come from China from February 1. Not people of Chinese background.

    People who have come from China, whatever their background is. And we are very concerned about xenophobia and any sort of racial profiling which is completely abhorrent.

  16. Rex

    ‘Labor members are binded to a vote, so the Labor ‘friends of coal’ would be required to vote for Steggalls bill if Butler can convince the majority of the Labor caucus and a few Lib moderates to vote for it.’

    But you were saying Labor was part of a Lib-Lab cartel. Now you’re saying Labor has to make a decision either way. So there’s no cartel.

    You keep claiming you’re misrepresented by me, but when I ask you to clarify your thoughts you don’t make much use of the opportunity.

    I take it, however, that you’re withdrawing your comment that Labor is part of a cartel.

    Now, what actions are you taking to put pressure on the Liberal moderates?

  17. Things must be looking bad for Morrison if he is contemplating using a couple of royals as human bushfire shields. He must have been shocked when the presence of his wife proved ineffective during his visit to Combargo.

  18. zoomster @ #273 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 1:32 pm

    Rex

    ‘Labor members are binded to a vote, so the Labor ‘friends of coal’ would be required to vote for Steggalls bill if Butler can convince the majority of the Labor caucus and a few Lib moderates to vote for it.’

    But you were saying Labor was part of a Lib-Lab cartel. Now you’re saying Labor has to make a decision either way. So there’s no cartel.

    You keep claiming you’re misrepresented by me, but when I ask you to clarify your thoughts you don’t make much use of the opportunity.

    I take it, however, that you’re withdrawing your comment that Labor is part of a cartel.

    Now, what actions are you taking to put pressure on the Liberal moderates?

    There’s most definitely a fossil fuel cartel – and their numbers are crucial to Morrisons and Albaneses grip on their party leadership positions.

    We just need a majority of parliamentarians to over-power them rather than capitulate to them as Morrison and Albanese have done.

  19. lizzie @ #206 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 12:20 pm

    Indigenous leaders have been barred from pursuing constitutional reform within the Morrison government’s new peak advisory group on a voice for First Australians, under leaked rules that try to stop them speaking up.

    A briefing to some of Australia’s most respected Indigenous leaders has warned them against making recommendations on constitutional recognition, ruling it out of scope for their group.

    The rules, obtained by The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, also place restrictions on the wider national group of leaders who are being asked to help design the voice to Parliament for Indigenous Australians.

    In one of the biggest restrictions, the government also prevents the national group making any recommendations on a Makarrata Commission, the forum meant to offer “truth-telling” and conflict resolution with First Australians.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/indigenous-leaders-barred-from-discussing-constitutional-reform-20200211-p53zmw.html

    How the Morrison government views meetings of the Indigenous Advisory Group:

  20. Victorian Greens and the North East Link

    An Alternative Vision for a more liveable North East:
    https://ourliveablecity.org.au/north-east-link/

    At $15.8 billion, the North East Link will be the world’s most expensive road per kilometre, yet it won’t fix Melbourne’s traffic problems.

    With that kind of money, there are better longer-term fixes that will have a greater impact while improving the lives of residents in the North-East.

    Why a road alone won’t work

    Building roads encourages cars: research in Melbourne and other cities shows traffic is induced when new urban toll roads and freeways are built.

    Communities will be divided: Regardless of which route is chosen, communities in the northeast will be physically divided by a 6 lane road.

    Traffic will be funnelled onto on-ramps: local roads will be congested more than they are now due to commuters trying to access the toll road.

    Trucks will avoid tolls: trucking companies have already said they are deliberately rat-running to avoid tolls on CityLink. Why would they do otherwise on the North East Link?

    Environmental and cultural sites will be damaged: all of the routes require the destruction of some green space.

    Trucks carrying dangerous goods will still use Rosanna Rd and other existing routes: placarded loads are not allowed in tunnels.

    The modelling used for the project is dodgy: the Labor Government has not released the full traffic studies or modelling assumptions.

  21. HC Love judgment is very long.

    For people who like this sort of thing, the minority (persons of aboriginal descent can be aliens) consisted of three of the four most senior judges (Kiefel CJ, Gageler and Keane JJ) ie two ALP appointments.

    Majority included all Abbott/Turnbull appointments plus Bell J.

  22. Pegasus
    Sorry for the wrong attribution; agree with your summary of NW Link.

    NE Link is not for the residents. There is a tidy construction contract for the winning bidder, another large budget public project for the CFMEU to get construction workers better paid than junior doctors, and of course Transurban will pick it up in the end for half the price, making their shareholders a nice profit too. Both Labor and Liberal vested interests benefit from such projects, which is why they are hard for citizens to stop.

    Nath
    “The increased use of EV’s will benefit the environment so a motorway of some form to connect those roads is needed in my opinion.”

    No. The GHGs from the construction alone will be thousands of tonnes. As Pegasus said building more freeways does stimulate more driving. EVs are less harmful for the environment than petrol or diesel cars but they are not zero harm unless the power supply is renewable, so still far worse than any rail alternative.

  23. BinTB

    All shellbell did was make an interesting observation.

    In the context of all the complaints about wtte the stacking of…with Coalition mates…his observation is salient, don’t you think? (rhetorical question)

  24. Socrates @ #283 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 2:05 pm

    Pegasus
    Sorry for the wrong attribution; agree with your summary of NW Link.

    NE Link is not for the residents. There is a tidy construction contract for the winning bidder, another large budget public project for the CFMEU to get construction workers better paid than junior doctors, and of course Transurban will pick it up in the end for half the price, making their shareholders a nice profit too. Both Labor and Liberal vested interests benefit from such projects, which is why they are hard for citizens to stop.

    Nath
    “The increased use of EV’s will benefit the environment so a motorway of some form to connect those roads is needed in my opinion.”

    No. The GHGs from the construction alone will be thousands of tonnes. As Pegasus said building more freeways does stimulate more driving. EVs are less harmful for the environment than petrol or diesel cars but they are not zero harm unless the power supply is renewable, so still far worse than any rail alternative.

    My preference is for Govt to fully fund new road infrastructure and toll it to pay for.

  25. looks like steggall’s bill is already effective in sorting parliament’s reactionaries from parliament’s not reactionaries & it hasn’t even been tabled & the public campaign hasn’t started yet. -a.v

  26. Socrates
    says:
    Nath
    “The increased use of EV’s will benefit the environment so a motorway of some form to connect those roads is needed in my opinion.”
    No. The GHGs from the construction alone will be thousands of tonnes. As Pegasus said building more freeways does stimulate more driving. EVs are less harmful for the environment than petrol or diesel cars but they are not zero harm unless the power supply is renewable, so still far worse than any rail alternative.
    ___________________________
    those aren’t my words. I’m against the link

  27. Albo is right.
    If you want real action on climate change vote Labor.
    If you want obstruction and fucking around vote for the Liberals, Nationals and Greens.

  28. Staggalls’ Bill is effective at just the one thing: demonstrating that Albo is right.

    If you want climate action, vote Labor.
    If you want grandstanding, vote Indie or Greens.
    If you want obstruction, vote Liberal or Nationals.

  29. nath @ #290 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 2:11 pm

    Socrates
    says:
    Nath
    “The increased use of EV’s will benefit the environment so a motorway of some form to connect those roads is needed in my opinion.”
    No. The GHGs from the construction alone will be thousands of tonnes. As Pegasus said building more freeways does stimulate more driving. EVs are less harmful for the environment than petrol or diesel cars but they are not zero harm unless the power supply is renewable, so still far worse than any rail alternative.
    ___________________________
    those aren’t my words. I’m against the link

    They’re my words.

    We can’t just eliminate cars. Sure we can improve PT and we should.

  30. Rex
    “My preference is for Govt to fully fund new road infrastructure and toll it to pay for.”

    That is a separate issue. The question of who pays for it is relevant if it is worth building. My point is that the project should not be built. Other options could relieve the area better at less cost. Even if government built this one, it would still be a bad idea.

    Another point not mentioned yet (and almost never modelled by road authorities) is the traffic impacts during congestion. They will be hideous. Materials deliveries alone will create thousands of extra truck movements per day into that area for several years.

  31. Bandt is effective at just the one thing: demonstrating that a single seat in the House is a waste of taxpayers’ money.
    Of course if Bandt were to lead the Greens voters to take up the Greens New Deal CO2 Emissions ZeroHero strike he would actually do something useful in the real world.
    But don’t hold your breath.
    He is trying to fool the Greens into thinking that they can have their cake and eat it too.

  32. Sprocket

    I don’t think the labels work very well to be honest. The judges just seem to go where their intellectual rigour takes them.

    A Google search does not yield any academic articles entitled “The Kiefel High Court” which seeks to study its composition and patterns. That is a bit surprising.

    There is one article about how they discuss their judgments more than used to be case so as to achieve unanimity. This ain’t an example of that.

    My impression is that this is a quiet High Court, operating more at the nuts and bolts level than its predecessors, exemplified by the big increase in criminal cases

    This judgment is about as exciting as it has gotten.

  33. Boerwar @ #291 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 1:12 pm

    Staggalls’ Bill is effective at just the one thing: demonstrating that Albo is right.

    If you want climate action, vote Labor.
    If you want grandstanding, vote Indie or Greens.
    If you want obstruction, vote Liberal or Nationals.

    So for grand climate action, vote 1 Indie, 2 Greens, 3 Labor, and put the Libs last.

    You said it. 🙂

  34. Rex
    “We can’t just eliminate cars. Sure we can improve PT and we should.”

    Nobody is suggesting eliminating cars. The point is that the overwhelming evidence is that building roads like that does not eliminate traffic congestion. See “The Fundamental Law of Road Congestion: Evidence from US Cities”. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.101.6.2616

    Cities with good PT still have cars. Though they tend to have far more one car households than two car. That also saves residents a lot of money.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *