Essential Research leadership ratings

Essential’s latest leadership ratings find Scott Morrison continuing to struggle, despite being back to level pegging on preferred prime minister.

The Guardian reports on yet another fortnightly Essential Research poll with no voting intention numbers, but we does at least get the monthly leadership ratings. These show Scott Morrison down a point on approval to 39% and steady on disapproval at 52%, after the previous poll respectively had him down five and up nine. Anthony Albanese is respectively down two to 41% and up one to 31%, and he has lost his 39-36 lead as preferred prime minister, with the two now tied on 36%. The BludgerTrack trends on the sidebar have now been updated with these results.

Further questions on bushfire recovery, sports rorts and coronavirus don’t seem to have turned up anything too mindblowing, but the publication of the full report may turn up something hopefully later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The most interesting of the supplementary findings for mine relate to the budget surplus, the consistent theme of which is that respondents aren’t that fussed about it: 79% agree spending on bushfire recovery is more important than maintaining it, with 11% disagreeing; 65% say it would be understandable if the coronavirus impact meant it wasn’t achieved, with 18% disagreeing; and 57% agree it was wrong for the government to discuss the surplus in the present tense before the election, with 24% disagreeing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,911 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings”

  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Katharine Murphy gets into the detail of what was an awful Essential poll for Morrison.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/11/essential-poll-morrison-still-in-the-doldrums-with-voters-after-bushfires-and-sports-grants
    David Crowe forms the opinion that Scott Morrison has just witnessed a show of force from an angry faction that will come after him on climate change when it is ready.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/angry-nationals-blindside-vote-just-a-warning-of-what-s-to-come-20200210-p53zie.html
    Some SMH journos says this represents a proxy war over the government’s direction.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/llew-o-brien-made-deputy-speaker-after-quitting-nationals-party-room-20200210-p53zgz.html
    Paul Bongiorno opines that the climate wedge has just deepened for Scott Morrison as Coalition rebels toy with power.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/02/10/paul-bongiorno-climate-wedge-scott-morrison-rebels/
    Denis Shanahan says the humiliation of Michael McCormack and his Nationals leadership chaos show no sign of ending and daily draws Scott Morrison and the Coalition further into the quagmire of dissent and bitterness.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/nats-leadership-chaos-michael-mccormacks-humiliation-shows-no-signs-of-ending/news-story/71527c243256532949c70501410d86b8
    And Phil Coorey reckons Morrison was humiliated by all this.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-humiliated-as-nationals-rebel-in-coal-war-20200210-p53zg9
    Michelle Grattan headlines her take on yesterday with “It turned into a profitable day at the office for Nat rat”. She describes Labor’s action as “a highly astute tactical play”.
    https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-it-turned-into-a-profitable-day-at-the-office-for-nat-rat-131489
    Kirsten Lawson writes that Nationals defector Llew O’Brien delivered a blow to the government yesterday, leaving his party in further disarray and exposing Morrison’s fragile hold on votes in parliament.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6623550/nationals-defector-delivers-blow-to-morrison-government/?cs=14350
    Mike Foley tells us that Zali Steggall says her proposed “sensible centre” laws for more ambitious climate action will need Coalition MPs to cross the floor and public pressure to get through.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/steggall-appeals-to-sensible-centre-for-more-climate-action-20200210-p53zer.html
    The SMH editorial says that political courage needed to move the country’s climate policy forward. Joyce and The Greens get a serve.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/political-courage-needed-to-move-climate-policy-forward-20200210-p53z9j.html
    Ross Garnaut explains how zero national emissions by 2050 is indeed possible.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6621405/why-zero-emissions-by-2050-is-achievable/?cs=14258
    Extending the life of just half of the Liddell coal-fired power station would cost as much as $100 million a year and, even then, technical issues would cloud the reliability of the ageing plant writes Peter Hannam.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/100-million-a-year-to-keep-half-of-liddell-coal-fired-power-plant-alive-20200210-p53zgj.html
    The Age explains how Crown Casino got visas for its high rollers.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/fast-tracks-and-bulk-deals-how-crown-got-visas-for-its-high-rollers-20200209-p53z1q.html
    Eryk Bagshaw reports that Australia is set to extend its coronavirus travel ban in a move expected to hammer the education sector and block 100,000 international students from entering the country in time for the start of semester.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/australia-prepares-to-extend-china-travel-ban-due-to-coronavirus-20200210-p53zd8.html
    Andy Marks declares that politicians need to quit their addiction to pork.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/pollies-need-to-quit-their-addiction-to-pork-20200210-p53zd6.html
    Peter Hartcher looks at Hockey’s time as our ambassador to the US.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/the-secrets-of-a-long-shot-diplomat-in-dealing-with-donald-trump-20200210-p53za1.html
    The stumbling Australian economy needs rescuing writes Greg Jericho. It’s time for more government spending he says.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2020/feb/11/the-stumbling-australian-economy-needs-rescuing
    There are certainly problems in German politics as Merkel’s time comes to a close.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/angela-merkel-s-party-in-crisis-as-heir-apparent-quits-amid-far-right-scandal-20200211-p53zjj.html
    Prof Chris Aulich writes about Morrison and the four Ds of crisis management – deny, deflect, denigrate and delay. This is a cracker!
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6613934/scott-morrison-and-the-four-ds-of-crisis-management/?cs=14264
    Sally Whyte writes that the government is ‘trashing the public service in the process’ of hiding Gaetjens report.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6623765/government-is-trashing-the-public-service-in-the-process-of-hiding-gaetjens-report/?cs=14350
    The budget surplus is almost certainly gone as economists warn Australia’s run of good luck has finally ended with the coronavirus and bushfires punching holes in revenue and forcing up spending writes Shane Wright.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/surplus-almost-certainly-gone-as-coronavirus-and-bushfires-hit-20200210-p53zem.html
    Alan Austin explains how Australia’s retail sector is suffering disastrously from the Morrison Government’s failures in economic policy.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/worst-three-years-in-retail-ever-thank-you-coalition-government,13581
    Australia’s free trade agreement with Indonesia has been billed as a win-win for both nations. But the deal might not be quite as sweet as Scott Morrison and Indonesian president Joko Widodo made out in their historic meeting in federal parliament yesterday says Euan Black.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2020/02/11/indonesia-free-trade-deal-farmers/
    Kate McClymont has more on the corruption in the NWS Labor government from some years ago.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/former-nsw-minister-denies-receiving-cash-payment-20200210-p53zgx.html
    Jennifer Duke reveals that the National Broadband Network is jostling for access to millions of dollars in state government innovation money in a bid to fund upgrades as the federal budget comes under pressure.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/nbn-co-looking-for-state-innovation-money-for-upgrades-20200210-p53zf6.html
    At last! A doctor puts some perspective into the coronavirus issue. It worries him that the media are making a mountain out of a molehill.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/car-crash-v-coronavirus-doctor-puts-pandemic-in-perspective/
    Without an arms-length process to control federal sports grants, vote buying will further erode trust in politics says Craig Emerson.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/how-to-stop-the-sports-rorts-rot-20200210-p53z8o
    The Guardian keeps rolling them out. This time Paul Karp tells us about how a donor to the Liberal National party received a $5.5m jobs and investment grant, despite potentially being ineligible because it is a registered training organisation.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/11/coalition-donor-received-55m-grant-despite-potentially-being-ineligible
    And Christopher Knaus writes that former resources minister Matt Canavan repeatedly delayed releasing documents about his interactions with coal lobbyists until he resigned his post, rendering a freedom of information request void. The case again highlights a significant flaw in Australia’s FOI regime, which makes it exceedingly difficult to access documents held by a minister if they shift portfolios or resign.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/11/canavan-delayed-releasing-documents-about-coal-lobby-interactions-before-resigning
    Flood management researcher Chris Kays explains the big problems with “dangerously irresponsible” planning for the Hawkesbury flood plain.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/floods-remind-us-the-plan-for-hawkesbury-floodplain-is-dangerously-irresponsible-20200210-p53zd2.html
    Dana McCauley reports that Christian Porter says he’ll consider legislating to stop so-called “double-dipping” by casual staff and extra sick leave for shift workers if two court decisions don’t go the government’s way.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/porter-weighs-legislation-to-address-casual-double-dipping-extra-sick-leave-20200210-p53ze2.html
    Matt Canavan has resigned the Resources Ministry, but the radioactive waste he signed off on has up to another 10,000 years in office, writes Dave Sweeney.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/canavan-goes-leaves-10000-year-toxic-legacy,13579
    Jenna Price piles into Harvey Weinstein’s female lawyer here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/harvey-weinstein-s-lawyer-and-the-saddest-defence-of-sexual-assault-i-ve-ever-read-20200210-p53zfk.html
    Trump easily avoided a guilty verdict in his Senate trial for abuse of power and obstruction of justice and, in the same week, was praised by Republicans for a State of the Union address in which he didn’t fall off the stage writes Martin Hirst.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/what-next-for-donald-trump,13580

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Peter Broelman

    Jim Pavlidis

    Matt Golding


    John Shakespeare

    Alan Moir reminds us an old one of his.

    The Australian’s John Spooner takes over from Leak.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/a0f7795dc4e2645b01f7d29fc9bc048e?width=1024

    From the US






  2. From previous thread:

    Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 7:43 am
    Comment #1206
    Greensborough Growler @ #1200 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 6:33 am

    Despite continuing upheaval, not much is happening with the essential Poll this morning.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/11/essential-poll-morrison-still-in-the-doldrums-with-voters-after-bushfires-and-sports-grants

    And that’s a good thing. I’d be disappointed to see the memory of Morrison’s woeful behaviour being washed away with the rain. The storms which, themselves, are another salient reminder of Climate Change and its effects on our weather.

  3. Greensborough Growler @ #3 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 7:41 am

    I daresay that the catastrophic economic impact on Tourism of the Bushfires and the Carona Virus will linger for some time. The political impact may be a slow burn for awhile. But, history shows that a regimes power slides in the wake of Natural Disasters. So the LNP may be in trouble over coming months.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-11/twin-disasters-coronavirus-bushfires-hit-tourism-sector/11949922

    And you watch Morrison and Frydenburg try and craft a Leave Pass on the Surplus for themselves as a result. While, as we know, if it were Labor in the same position they would call those things, ‘excuses’.

  4. Ellen Fanning:Journo
    @ellenmfanning
    · 13m
    “It’s not Labor’s job to promote unity in the Coalition” says @AlboMP when asked was it constructive to boost a potential opponent of climate action into the deputy Speakership? “That’s a very long bow indeed”, he says #auspol @RNBreakfast

  5. David Speers
    @David_Speers
    ·
    11m
    .
    @AlboMP tells @frankelly08
    “I don’t think there’s a place for a coal-fires power station in Australia, full stop”.

  6. Morning all. Thanks BK. The Essential poll seems to confirm Morrison’s slump is not a blip. With Steggall’s bill and the Nationals to deal with there is not much to look forward to for him either. The budget session will bring more difficult questions.

  7. Ellen Fanning:Journo
    @ellenmfanning
    · 12m
    Zali Steggall’s Bill to bind Australia to zero net emissions by 2050 will never be voted on says @AlboMP The only way to change to climate policy is to vote for a Labor government. #@RNBreakfast #auspol

  8. “ It’s hard to tell with Fran if she’s just being a devil’s advocate or an LNP apologist. As far as I’m concerned her morning slot greatly improved while she was away on leave.”

    She forms part of a cadre of petite bourgeoise meja hacks that remain bewitched by Gilderoy Lockhart.

  9. @UrbanWronski
    ·
    6m
    Fran Kelly ABC RN hostile to Albo, trying to blame Labor for govt chaos & disunity. How dare Labor humiliate Scotty & be against climate change by supporting Llew O’Brien – a Barnaby & fossil fuel backer? Then argues Labor declare support for Collinsville coal mine? Seriously?

  10. Essential Poll

    The prime minister still gets the thumbs up from 78% of Coalition supporters.
    :::
    Albanese also tracks lower in terms of approval with Labor’s rusted-on voters than Morrison does with the Coalition cohort. While Morrison’s approval with supporters is in the high 70s, Albanese’s approval with Labor voters is 62%.
    :::
    On the sports grants issue, 70% of the sample agrees the decisions of all government MPs involved in allocating grants needs to be investigated given the scathing assessment of the program by the Australian National Audit Office.

    But 49% of the sample also say the resignation of the former sports minister Bridget McKenzie should be the end of the matter. Coalition voters are more likely to argue McKenzie’s departure should be the end of the imbroglio than other cohorts.

  11. Andrew_Earlwood @ #14 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 8:06 am

    “ It’s hard to tell with Fran if she’s just being a devil’s advocate or an LNP apologist. As far as I’m concerned her morning slot greatly improved while she was away on leave.”

    She forms part of a cadre of petite bourgeoise meja hacks that remain bewitched by Gilderoy Lockhart.

    What Andy says!

  12. Ellen Fanning:Journo
    @ellenmfanning
    ·
    38m
    Would you support a new coal fired power station? “You might as well ask me if I support unicorns” says
    @AlboMP
    #auspol
    @RNBreakfast

  13. (Telecommunications (Interception and Access) Amendment (Data Retention) Act 2015)
    ——-

    The Data Retention Act. How not to introduce complex legislation

    https://johnmenadue.com/laurie-patton-the-data-retention-act-how-not-to-introduce-complex-legislation/

    The history of the data retention scheme provides a spectacular case study in how not to introduce controversial legislation. It is a classic example of a badly designed law that was rushed through Parliament on the dubious theory that great urgency was justified and would not impede the efficient implementation of a complex new regulatory regime. Such haste in the design and implementation was certain to ensure problems would ensue. Those chickens appear to have come home to roost, as has been exposed by the Ombudsman’s report to the PJCIS.

  14. LNP circus -The Queensland tail is wagging the Coalition dog

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2020/10/2020/1581310704/lnp-circus

    The “Clayton’s” defection of Coalition backbencher Llew O’Brien underlines both the fragility of the Morrison government and the growing tendency for representatives of the LNP to put Queensland first, whether or not that suits the federal Coalition. O’Brien’s decision is not completely out of the blue – the former police officer flagged last year that he could cross the floor over “serious concerns” with the government’s proposed national integrity commission, and his support for last week’s leadership challenge by Barnaby Joyce against Michael McCormack has left him on the outer. O’Brien will not sit within either the National or the Liberal party rooms, but will remain a member of the Coalition and sit in joint partyroom meetings. Today’s reports suggest O’Brien has guaranteed the PM supply, but not confidence – we may learn more at a press conference scheduled for this evening. So while the Morrison government therefore maintains its working majority in the lower house, it continues to suffer from bitter division in the Nationals party room. And if he is not careful, the PM will find the Nationals backbench wedging their own side of politics on coal and climate – issues that the Liberals are also deeply split upon.
    :::
    As everyone from Malcolm Turnbull to Joel Fitzgibbon has pointed out today, a new coal-fired power station is wildly uneconomic compared with the cost of new renewables plus storage – and Fitzgibbon made the further point that North Queensland doesn’t even need the power, because of all the renewables already underway up there. Christensen and Matt Canavan are not talking facts, they are culture warring, but though the dogs bark, the caravan rolls on. Labor deputy leader Richard Marles squirmed his way through Insiders yesterday on a purely hypothetical question of whether Labor would approve or reject a new coal-fired generator proposed by the private sector. The burden of Marles’s argument was that Labor is still hoping for a bipartisan solution on climate with the government.

    Lo and behold independent MP Zali Steggall today released her draft Climate Change Bill – a genuine effort to break the deadlock, with a constructive proposal that does not rely on new taxes and provides a credible pathway to a net-zero-emissions-by-2050 target that could otherwise remain purely symbolic. If the government was smart it would ignore the renegades and grasp the opportunity with both hands.

  15. zoomster

    I’m thinking that Albo might have received some strategic advice to go hard on countering Bandt’s accusation that Labor supports coal, and also Morrison’s similar “Labor is this way-that way”.

  16. Albo was on his game this morning, turning every question into a deflection onto the chaos in the Coalition. Fran struggled to get him to announce policy on the run, struggled in vain.

  17. Pollies need to quit their addiction to pork

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/pollies-need-to-quit-their-addiction-to-pork-20200210-p53zd6.html

    So, where does this leave the humble voter? The fallout from addiction is often most keenly felt by those on the sideline. Short of moving to a marginal electorate and bathing in the windfall, there’s little reason for optimism.

    An unfettered and truly independent federal corruption commission might be the only recourse. We could try prohibition, leaving it to bureaucrats to transparently dole out funds based on, wait for it, evidence. That would leave our political class the time they need to work on their deeper more diabolical addiction, leadership spills.

  18. Paddy Manning

    ‘Lo and behold independent MP Zali Steggall today released her draft Climate Change Bill – a genuine effort to break the deadlock, with a constructive proposal that does not rely on new taxes and provides a credible pathway to a net-zero-emissions-by-2050 target that could otherwise remain purely symbolic.’

    Not quite.

    It provides a compass bearing and some way points to 2050.

    How anyone actually moves a single step forward towards even the nearest way point is a total blank.

  19. I was going to buy a pair of those metallic balls that Tradies like to hang on the tow bar of their utes and send it to Albanese. Looks like I don’t have to any more. 🙂

  20. Scotty from Marketing is the guy who has in the past two months deployed his wife and his daughters and his dead dad.

    All of them are wasted grist to Scotty’s millstone.

  21. I think there’s another strategic point that needs to be made about Labor’s moves in parliament yesterday to install Llew O’Brien to the Deputy Speakership.

    They showed Barnaby Joyce that he could be put back in his box easily by them as well. Joyce had planned to nominate Ken O’Dowd. Labor decided not to go along with that scenario in order to give a black eye to Morrison and McCormack. Labor chose, instead, Llew O’Brien, organised the votes with the Cross Bench and 5 in the Coalition (maybe even Barnaby himself after he realised he had been outplayed?), and the rest is history. 🙂

  22. Amy R, The Guardian

    Anthony Albanese also tried to clean up Richard Marles’s trainwreck of an interview on Insiders on Sunday, by laying out Labor’s position on coal, by discussing the problems with the Collinsville coal-fired power station $4m feasibility study.

  23. .@AlboMP tells @frankelly08 “I don’t think there’s a place for a coal-fires power station in Australia, full stop”.

    Cue Greens shills parsing the meaning

  24. sprocket

    On Sunday Marley’s interview was a train wreck and up you popped like the Labor shill you are to reassure everyone wtte he did a good interview.

  25. cud

    Now, does that get your juices flowing?

    Not here in Adelaide. Would have when I lived in Sydney – especially when I was briefly commuting from the CC to Sydney. Although that train was pretty fast in sections, just crawled along for the last part. But thanks for the excellent informative post.

    Congestion in Sydney has been diabolical for many decades. They just keep building more roads. I remember when the M5 went in, there were rumblings that they should have put a train line down the middle. Imagine that, stuck in the traffic on a motorway and watching smiling faces on a train zooming past. I also remember sometime last century Bob Carr floating a HSR to Newcastle. It was a good idea then, and a good idea now.

    Those of us not living in that particular part of the world wonder if that technology and hardware is not also beneficial elsewhere. Places where you dont have to build tunnels, buy land and find routes through congested cities. So once you have built the HSR from Sydney to Newcastle and turning your attention to Sydney to Penrith etc, maybe spare some thought to my question. Because I do believe peeps are a little over airtravel. An alternative option, perhaps a little more glamorous, more leg room, and yes, a little slower, may have a market in an age of lower carbon emissions.

  26. Time out.

    CSIRO
    @CSIRO
    ·
    Feb 9
    Did you know that echidnas are actually toothless mammals? Their long-tongued speedy slurp turns ants, worms and insect larvae into fast food. In fact, the echidna’s scientific name, Tachyglossus actually means ‘swift tongue’!

    : Kate Daniel (IG: glenrowanwestbirds)

    Bet you’ve never seen an echidna having a bath.
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1226445671701647360

  27. Debate surrounding a new coal power has been dragging on for several years and the fact it hasn’t happened should tell it is unlikely to.

  28. So Albo makes a pretty clear statement on RN that he thinks coal-fired power is on its deathbed or words to that effect.

    So, in light of that, are the most vocal here going to applaud that — or will they say they didn’t hear it, or will they say he didn’t go far enough?

  29. This Nat infighting is giving the Greens/ALP contretemps a run for its money, by the length of the straight..

    “Nationals leader Michael McCormack has been accused of organising a party meeting in Victoria to coincide with the Melbourne Cup by the rebel MP who sensationally quit to sit on the crossbench.

    Ex-Nationals MP Llew O’Brien quit the party and blindsided his former leader by teaming up with Labor to secure the role of Deputy Speaker on Monday.

    The former police officer, who backs a tough national integrity commission, claims Mr McCormack convened a party room meeting in regional Victoria in late 2019 to coincide with Melbourne’s Spring Racing Carnival.

    By doing so, he allowed Nationals MPs to travel to Melbourne at taxpayer expense under the rules, before enjoying the free hospitality at the races.”

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/02/11/rebel-mp-michael-mccormack-melbourne-cup/

  30. Remeikis

    Last night, a motion put forward by Larissa Waters – that the House of Representatives bring about a vote on the Greens National Integrity Commission Bill – passed the Senate:

    That should hit the house around midday.

    And it’s the first opportunity Llew O’Brien will have to cross the floor. One of his big bugbears has been the government’s proposed national integrity commission not being strong enough.

    Let the games begin

  31. Stop listening to the worthless garbage coming out of LNP politicians’ corrupt traps and understand the numbers:

    ‘With all subsidies taken out, solar PV and wind wipe the floor with gas, coal and nuclear. Levelised cost of solar and wind is about $50 per megawatt hour, half that of gas and coal’s $100 per megawatt hour even without a carbon price. Nuclear is way off the money, priced anywhere between $250 and $330 per megawatt hour.’

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-wilfully-blind-to-economics-of-renewables-20200209-p53z4m.html

  32. Just listened to Albanese’s interview.

    ….New coal fired power generators

    FK: If it stacked up, if industry was prepared to back it, would a Labor government be prepared to support it, allow it?

    AA: You might as well ask me if I supported unicorns.

    So no direct answer then just reiterating Shorten’s pre-election double-speak.

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